The Rumour Thread

[Nighthaunt Noob]

56 minutes ago, PJetski said:

If you think 500 respondents is inherently a representative sample of 300mil+ then you should consider taking a statistic analysis course

Wrong

[edmc78]

Well Total 3 Warhammer 3  is being previewed on 13th, so less likely to be that ...

 

[Nos]

2 hours ago, MitGas said:

I don't want to remove any faction but the reason I got some disdain for some factions is simple: they get too much stuff while others get nothing or not even half as much. It's simply not fair. Doesn't help that some of the IMO derpiest factions get so much stuff either but that's personal preference. It's not that they shouldn't get lots of new kits but when i look at factions like Skaven, BoC, Cities and Seraphon and then compare those to some others like LRL or SC, it feels pretty unfair. Same with say those half-armies we got (Ironjawz, Sylvaneth, FEC, Fyreslayers, Idoneth etc.) that feel like first waves and not like complete armies. Feels kinda unfair compared to the recent uber-releases of say LRL or Slaanesh now too. In their defense, the messed up release schedule made things seem worse than it is.

Oh and entirely subjective but AoS has too many Aelf factions now. I hope we're done after Malerion. And personally I hope that some get merged. Malerion and DoK for example. I'm sure some disagree but I find armies best when they got lots of options and don't look the same. Guess that's why I like Chaos.

GW make disproportionate numbers of marines, Stormcast etc for the same reason McDonalds makes far more burgers than salads. GW dont care about fairness and equality among their range, they care about selling the most of whatever it is they can.

Besides Stormcast and Chaos, GW's very distinct development of elven archetypes and their centrality to the fiction is AOS' biggest USP. 

[PJetski]

15 minutes ago, Nighthaunt Noob said:

Wrong

3 out of 4 dentists agree this is a glib argument. There are so many factors that can introduce bias at every level of sampling that you are completely ignoring.

Errors are inevitable, but is 5% error is acceptable? What's the standard deviation you are willing to accept? What confidence level are you willing to accept? 

What topic are you polling on and how do you minimize bias on that subject? Which people are selected? Are you taking a random sample? Are geographic and cultural differences adding bias? How do you account for those factors?

1000 people selecting which army they play on warhammer weekly is not definitive proof of anything except the warhammer weeklys audience that is also willing to answer the poll (and assuming they're not lying). I'm not going to derail the rumour thread any further with this topic

Edited May 5, 2021 by PJetski

[MitGas]

2 minutes ago, Nos said:

GW make disproportionate numbers of marines, Stormcast etc for the same reason McDonalds makes far more burgers than salads. GW dont care about fairness and equality among their range, they care about selling the most of whatever it is they can.

Besides Stormcast and Chaos, GW's very distinct development of elven archetypes and their centrality to the fiction is AOS' biggest USP. 

Might very well just be the scene over here but from what I gather elves are certainly not top-sellers with the local GW even stating that LRL didn't sell too well - and SC are no marines either. Dark Elves used to be VERY popular in WHFB so I guess Malerion will be very popular as well but in no way would that suggest that adding more elf factions is the way to go. I'm hoping for more of the other stuff.... and soon! 

I just think GW is trying to create its own self-fulfilling prophecy again, negating that the marine appeal is a once-in-a-business thing...

[Aeryenn]

32 minutes ago, Overread said:

Skaven were also not developed purely for AoS; they have a history and in that history they were 1 single army. They worked with that and were built around it. "Gaps" in one subgroup were filled by the others. Moulder didn't need a ranged siege weapon because it got the lightning cannon. 

History seems to be the last thing GW is concerned about in AoS. Starting a completely new setting after End Times pretty much sums it up. Skaven are one of only few armies that haven't been yet AoSified. I know what you are trying to say but with AoS I believe it doesn't work. Skaven being a one complete army in the past means nothing if we consider what GW did in AoS. There weren't Chaos God Specific factions and it doesn't seem to bother anyone. There was one order dwarf faction, not three as in AoS. There are more aelves and the number of aelven factions may in the end be like six or seven. How many death factions were there? Or destruction armies? AoS works on its own rules. There might be more Order factions in the near future of AoS than all armies combined in the Old World.

I understand that somebody might like Skaven at their current, united state. It's just in my opinion it stops this faction from development because AoS updates and releases are build around a certain theme and we all know that. GW will either add one single hero per edition or develop one clan with like 2-3 new units that will doubtfuly work with units from other clans. Dividing their force would make things more simple actually for future releases.

[Nighthaunt Noob]

6 minutes ago, PJetski said:

3 out of 4 dentists agree this is a glib argument. There are so many factors that can introduce bias at every level of sampling that you are completely ignoring.

Errors are inevitable, but is 5% error is acceptable? What's the standard deviation you are willing to accept? What confidence level are you willing to accept? 

What topic are you polling on and how do you minimize bias on that subject? Which people are selected? Are you taking a random sample? Are geographic and cultural differences adding bias? How do you account for those factors?

1000 people selecting which army they play on warhammer weekly is not definitive proof of anything except the warhammer weeklys audience that is also willing to answer the poll (and assuming they're not lying). I'm not going to derail the rumour thread any further with this topic

Expecting such miniscule levels of error is not common practice in polling. Since we're talking about polling for hobby preferences all the more so :). Even general election polls in the USA tend to be ~500-1000 respondents.

[Gothmaug]

Well now that we've seen Kragnos, and based on all the rumor engine models over the last few months,  I'll toss in my two cents for Destruction Faction Moving forward. 

 

I think the Siege of Excelsius is going to be covered in Broken Realm's Kragnos. Excelsius will fall, but the Destruction horde held together by Gordraak will break, and the sub-factions will scatter once more. Kragnoss will gather up a bunch of mixed destruction units to him, and there will be rules in the book to run a mixed destruction list under Kragnos, similar to Belakor's mixed demon list. 

To support this, on Saturday they will announce AoS 3, and we'll see an Order vs Destruction Boxed set. Likely some stormcasts and Cities of Sigmar units  (maybe "forces of Excelsius"?) vs a mixed destruction box of various "greenskinz". We'll get goblin wolf riders and a new chariot (probably ork chariot), and perhaps an ogre unit of some type. These units will be tailored to be led by Kragnoss. 

The question is, what happens to Gordraaak and Gorka-Morka in all of this? Do they play nice with Kragnoss? We've seen very little about Gordraak since the short story of him getting the godbeasts skull for the ram. I'm wondering if he'll knock open the portal to Azyr and get met my SIgmar who gives him a brual smackdown, possibly killing Gordraak. This would leave room for Kragnoss to pick up the pieces of Gordraak's huge Waagh army and a realignment of the faction. 

 

Or,.... (as a diehard Ironjaws player) Hope beyond Hope, there's a Gordraak Avatar of Gorkamorka model planned as a surprise for the start of 3rd edition, along with a new wave of Ork/Ironjaw releases! 

[Feii]

54 minutes ago, PJetski said:

3 out of 4 dentists agree this is a glib argument. There are so many factors that can introduce bias at every level of sampling that you are completely ignoring.

Errors are inevitable, but is 5% error is acceptable? What's the standard deviation you are willing to accept? What confidence level are you willing to accept? 

What topic are you polling on and how do you minimize bias on that subject? Which people are selected? Are you taking a random sample? Are geographic and cultural differences adding bias? How do you account for those factors?

1000 people selecting which army they play on warhammer weekly is not definitive proof of anything except the warhammer weeklys audience that is also willing to answer the poll (and assuming they're not lying). I'm not going to derail the rumour thread any further with this topic

With how huge the US is 500 people in the original argument might leave out geographical areas out of the sample size lol. At the same time I dont think an online poll would have the same problems as polling a continent of 300 million people. Warhammerweekly/TGA audience just tends to be less casual and more invested so it is a biased sample but I think you could assume that if you had a achance to poll all competitive/very invested players it might not be that far off. 


Still the best statistics about armies should be the sales number so anybody from the GWs warehouse LEAK it haha 

[Vasshpit]

@Gothmaug Very much hoping Gordrakk either gets his fight with siggy britches or does not bow before pony boy and we see destro split off into two paths. 

Gordrakk will not bow. If Gdubs takes that route my interest in the setting will massively fade. Im mot a fan of this new pony boy at all and think the concept would have worked much better for BoC. 

Just my opinion. 

Edited May 5, 2021 by Vasshpit

[zamerion]

If the new edition is so close, today maybe they should talk about a novel that is related?

[Charleston]

2 minutes ago, zamerion said:

If the new edition is so close, today maybe they should talk about a novel that is related?

I don't think GW would make such an issue and spoil their "secret" reveal by revealing the novel first.

[Mutton]

I feel like the people who are actually upset about Stormcast are mostly 40k players with PTSD. They can't separate the fact that Sigmar's lads aren't the space marines of fantasy.

Stormcast have but two main problems:

1) Their range is so expansive it's nigh impossible to figure out what you should buy.
2) So far the rules writers haven't honed in on how they should play on the tabletop. They should be absolute killers. The epitome of "elite" soldiery. Instead, all of their combat guys suck and the only thing they have going for them are bows.

[Carnelian]

I understand that one of the reasons why a small sample size can still be useful is to do with random samples: e.g. if all the samples are pulled completely randomly, then correlations even at small numbers can be really significant.

Additionally, if the samples give you additional information that can allow them to be weighted (e.g. geographical location) towards some other greater body of data then a small sample can be usefully extrapolated. 

Conversely, that is why twitter and forum polls are generally quite useless at getting towards any real statistical insights that include offline opinion: the way responses to these polls are generated is the opposite of random = they are self selecting, based on who knows the user/follows that thread already etc.

A poll on a TGA in say the destruction sub-forum is probably not necessarily that good at guaging the opinions of even all TGA users, let alone all GW hobbiers, for the reason that a TGA user might have really strong opinions on destruction but  still never visit the destruction sub-forum.

(I am not saying that polls like that are not fun or cannot generate insights, just that they're not really going to be good at guaging the entire hobby community)

[Red Bull]

On 5/3/2021 at 4:28 PM, Kronos said:

the ones I did want to see (hunters, Tyrion’s dudes, and Malerion anything) are yet to be seen. 

For real. I've been waiting to dive into AoS for Malerion. I keep thinking they will be "soon". I keep being wrong.

Unfortunately, AoS is a little to expensive for me to dive into an army for fun. I'm going to keep waiting for the one I really want. I have $900 of hobby money saved up. I fear blowing it on Hedonites now and then Malerion coming out later in the year.

Slaanesh is really tempting though.. stupid sexy Slaanesh.

[Skreech Verminking]

12 minutes ago, Red Bull said:

For real. I've been waiting to dive into AoS for Malerion. I keep thinking they will be "soon". I keep being wrong.

 

Welcome on board on the dreams die last boat.

many Skavenplayer, including myself feel your pain 

although theres always a chance, that the horned rat will scurry-steal sigmars place at some point.

Yes-yes soon  we will scurry-rise with new backstabbing wepon-toys.

ps: sorry what where we talking about again?? 

[Whitefang]

IMHO, I personally believe and think GW has almost reached their practical limitation of factions they can have at once.

Which means beside the necessary new faction such as Mally and Grungni’s buddies (no read into these, we know they will eventually come despite how long it takes) we are unlikely to see splitting current factions.

[dirkdragonslayer]

6 hours ago, Acrozatarim said:

The whole 'MYSTERY SATURDAY WOOOOOOO' thing is already a big hype-builder. Everyone's projecting what they want to see on it and getting excited.

Obviously mystery saturday is going to announce the discontinuation of Space Marines and announce a complete range refresh of the Aeldari and Beastmen. Anything less than that and I will yell at strangers online. 😄

[willange]

5 minutes ago, Skreech Verminking said:

ps: sorry what where we talking about again?? 

Statistical analysis and model refreshes!  Basically the same things we always talk about!

[HorticulusTGA]

1 minute ago, Whitefang said:

IMHO, I personally believe and think GW has almost reached their practical limitation of factions they can have at once.

Which means beside the necessary new faction such as Mally and Grungni’s buddies (no read into these, we know they will eventually come despite how long it takes) we are unlikely to see splitting current factions.

Certainly, we "know" we'll eventually get Grungni's "consolidated" Duardins, Malerion's Shadow Aelves, Kurnothi (as Sylvaneth thrid Wave ?), "consolidated" Orruk Warclans / Greenskinsz, and new Stormcasts (with hopefully common Azyrite Humans auxiliary if we do not get anything new for CoS proper). AND Tyrion and the other two Lumineth Temples.....

That's still a lot. I'd like to see updates for BoC, Skaven, IDK, Fyreslayer, maybe Ossiarch and Kharadron ....

[Aeryenn]

You seem to be sure about Grungni dwarfs faction. Why is that? 

[Sorrow]

3 hours ago, Aeryenn said:

I wrote it in a different forum but it's worth to mention it again.

Just think of the possibilities if each Clan had space to develop on its own.

Skyre as high tech faction, with rat mechs, walkers, cannons. Kharadrons shouldn't be the only advanced faction.

Moulder with all its mutations and numbers.

Eshin is difficult to develop but not impossible as well.

We had a take on Pestilens and I think it could work if given enough attention.

If Aelves can have a dozen factions, why can't Skaven have more than one?

I have collected Skaven since WHFB 5 edition. But are Skaven truly so popular to warrant a Chaos treatment?

That each clan becomes its own faction as each Chaos god now has its own faction.

[willange]

2 minutes ago, Aeryenn said:

You seem to be sure about Grungni dwarfs faction. Why is that? 

I wonder if it's really a Grungni faction or just a Grombi mini.  But if Horticulus is saying it then...

[Aeryenn]

1 minute ago, Sorrow said:

I have collected Skaven since WHFB 5 edition. But are Skaven truly so popular to warrant a Chaos treatment?

That each clan becomes its own faction as each Chaos god now has its own faction.

I'd say it all comes to execution. If the minis are great even Johann's faction could be a bestseller. If the minis are bad even the best concept can be a failure.

[Hypno]

17 minutes ago, Whitefang said:

IMHO, I personally believe and think GW has almost reached their practical limitation of factions they can have at once.

Which means beside the necessary new faction such as Mally and Grungni’s buddies (no read into these, we know they will eventually come despite how long it takes) we are unlikely to see splitting current factions.

The oracle has spoken only faction updates from here on out