The Rumour Thread

[Neverchosen]

2 hours ago, JackStreicher said:

Since the S2D Thread isn't the most busy of places I'll ask my question again:


Heralds of ruination - Chosen Rule

It’s a weird rule since the wording is different than usual concerning fighting twice rules, it even differs from the Varanguard fighting twice rule in the same book. 

Every other fight twice ability I have encountered has the paragraph which goes like this:
"If this unit is within 3" of an enemy unit it can be chosen to fight a second time"
While the chosen rule simply says "You can fight a second time."

Now let's assume the chosen charged an enemy and killed it. Now there is another enemy BUT that enemy is outside of 3". Can they fight again?
-> As per the core rules a unit has to be within 3" of an enemy in order to be eligible to fight.
So the chosen should not be allowed to fight.
However: Why is their rule's wording that different? One might assume that the intention is to allow them to fight anyway -> pile towards the next enemy and attack if it is within range.

There are several explanations for this divergernce:
1. The intend is a different one compared to other double-fighting rules (as explained above) 
2. It was formated to fit onto the warscroll
3. Incompetence

What are your thoughts? Are there similarly worded rules that have an FAQ to clarify the intend of the rule?

 

 

I mean this will still be limited by the range of their weapons... meaning that if there is no enemies nearby you can choose to have your chosen argue/fight amongst themselves about how to interpret this rule. 

[Aleser]

So there is no new Incarnate with this season. Was that released at same time as last GHB?

[Arzalyn]

48 minutes ago, Aleser said:

So there is no new Incarnate with this season. Was that released at same time as last GHB?

It was released approximately a month before the GHB last year. I imagine we didn't saw one yet because we are still in Gallet. I expect we will get a new one when the next GHB go from Gallet to a new region in Ghur.

[DinoJon]

As someone who just spent the day putting together Seraphon fine cast.. I can only hope the new rumor engine we got last Tuesday is a Skink handler holding a soothing tonic for a salamander/razordon. 

 

I hope they get rid of all the seraphon finecast this battletome.

[Sigmarusvult]

8 hours ago, DinoJon said:

I hope they get rid of all the seraphon finecast this battletome.

Cries in Skaven and ogre 

[Clan's Cynic]

On 1/14/2023 at 6:22 AM, Ogregut said:

 

Where does it say that in the report? 

I just read the whole report and it didn't state that at all, unless I completely missed something. 

 

The person who posted the thread on B+C typically does a breakdown of these reports.

Quote

 

Do you remember how small HH 1.0 was?  Sure, we were excited when Lady Atia, Brother Mr. Parker, Brother Valrak and others went to a HH Weekender.  But outside of our little bubble, HH 1.0 was a very niche thing.  GW does not (likely by design) break down its revenue by product lines, but they sometimes slip up like this back in 2016's Financial Report:

(I want to apologise to our Brother who worked this out properly, I only remember how I did it with a back-of-napkins math.  We lost his post in the forum reshuffle.)

2016 was right before GW's meteoric rise, so it was making excuses for a Revenue drop in Mail Order, saying how FW's growth compensated for a decline with their normal plastic (Citadel) range.  Back-of-napkin, for FW's 28% increase to offset a 12% decrease, that means FW was around 30%, and Citadel about 70% of Mail Order.

2016 was also before the new Blood Bowl, Newcromunda, etc., so FW really meant HH 1.0.  For those that played AoD, this was around Book VI: Retribution, focusing on the Shattered Legions.  Mail Order was around 21% of GW's overall Revenue.  30% of 21% means HH 1.0 was only roughly 6% of GW's total business.

30k players would say, "That's ridiculous, my AoD army cost 10x times than my 40k one!"  You're right...HH 1.0 was much more expensive, which only means the number of actual players was even smaller than that; we weren't even 6% of the population, maybe just 0.6% that spends 10x more.  We were a tiny, yet very passionate, minority.

So before reading this half-yearly report, I was hoping, HOPING, we'd be close to AoS levels of popularity.  30k's a niche game, a spin-off.  So I looked at the half-yearly Revenue periods associated with edition launches, just as an indicator, understanding obviously not all sales were tied to launch titles, but still useful comparison points:

• When AoS GHB came out, half-yearly grew £15.6 mil more than the previous HY
• Then 40k 8th ed came out, HY grew £38.0 mil more than that period
• And AoS 2nd ed came out, HY grew £15.3 mil more than 40k 8th ed
• But 40k 9th ed came out, HY grew £38.4 mil more than the previous HY
• Then AoS 3rd ed came out, HY only grew...£4.7 mil?  I just checked...this was bad

Even though a Finance professor would never teach this shorthand, you see the common sense pattern, right?  Usually, an AoS edition grows Revenue from the last comparable period by ~£15 mil.  40k is the star player, every time it appears, add ~£38 mil, more than double AoS's gains.  So where does HH 2.0 rank?

Now HH 2.0 has come out, HY grew £20.8*, or even MORE than any AoS ed
 
* Note: to compare like-to-like, I've omitted Licensing revenue, as that's quite big now, focusing only on Core (i.e. miniatures) Revenue.

In terms of game rankings, 40k is still top dog, then 30k, then AoS.  We weren't close to AoS, we exceeded past them.  This is honestly impressive to me.

I read below that GW missed its sales forecast.  Maybe GW's forecast was too ambitious, I'll see.  And can anyone tell me why AoS 3rd ed seems unpopular?

 

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Clan's Cynic

[Gitzdee]

Does GW seriously expect that when they only release heroes and tomes with close to no marketing that they are making a ton of money for AoS?

It does make me wonder how many of the 40k people that jumped to 30k are jumping back to 10th this year.

Edited January 15, 2023 by Gitzdee

[Chikout]

1 hour ago, Clan's Cynic said:

The person who posted the thread on B+C typically does a breakdown of these reports.

 

This whole breakdown is based on some pretty dodgy assumptions. Before 2015 gw sales used to be pretty consistent with new edition years giving a bump on sales before settling down again the following year. It made it possible to guage the impact and success of each new edition. This has changed recently. 2018-2019 was the first year every that sales in the year after a 40k launch beat the launch year. In fact gw has had record 6 month period every six months between 2016 and now. This continued growth makes it extremely difficult to guage the impact of particular ranges without direct data from GW. 

 

 

 

 

[Ogregut]

3 hours ago, Clan's Cynic said:

The person who posted the thread on B+C typically does a breakdown of these reports.

 

Still seems like a lot of assumptions by a armchair analyst. 

[Malakithe]

2 hours ago, Gitzdee said:

Does GW seriously expect that when they only release heroes and tomes with close to no marketing that they are making a ton of money for AoS?

It does make me wonder how many of the 40k people that jumped to 30k are jumping back to 10th this year.

I mean...ill be picking up 2 of boxes for WE's at a minimum. Possibly new Guard stuff and if rumors are true ill be unshelving my DA

[JackStreicher]

On 1/14/2023 at 3:10 PM, Neverchosen said:

I mean this will still be limited by the range of their weapons... meaning that if there is no enemies nearby you can choose to have your chosen argue/fight amongst themselves about how to interpret this rule. 

2“ weapon range

[EntMan]

New FreeGuild General on pre-order next week 😉🤣

https://www.warhammer-community.com/2023/01/15/sunday-preview-your-emperor-needs-you-join-the-astra-militarum/

[EonChao]

Kind of surprising there's no new combat patrol for them. I kind of expected it just so every army would have one (apart from Knights anyway)

[DinoJon]

Maybe I missed it but they did not say anything about any model previews next week in the article. Might be a pretty dead week for us AoS fans. 

[Gaz Taylor]

Just now, DinoJon said:

Maybe I missed it but they did not say anything about any model previews next week in the article. Might be a pretty dead week for us AoS fans. 

The LVO is at the end of the month and I think there is a preview then. I suspect most AOS content will be just reveals about the stuff for next few months which has been confirmed as Beast of Chaos and Gloomspite Gits. They might show some Cities stuff but I’m expecting that around March with Adepticon or in May with Warhammer Fest.

[Mutton]

I don't know if anything in that report is accurate. But AoS 3rd is definitely less popular in my area than in previous editions.

Reasons:
1) Don't know how many times we can say this but...the game is too damn complicated. Strategies, battle tactics, battalions, ever-shifting realm rules. It's too much for your average wargamer. Only hardcore competitive players care to commit this stuff to memory, so all of the casual players end up playing a couple of games and then calling it quits. AoS should be the beer and pretzels game you can enjoy even after a long day at work. That's not what it is right now. People can talk all day about how the game has never been more balanced (which is true), but it doesn't matter a lick if nobody wants to spend the brain power to play it in the first place.

2) Prices have been so dramatically bloated in just the past few years that many potential customers are simply left by the wayside. There's a stark difference in prices in AoS from 3-5 years ago to now. Warhammer increasingly becomes the "premium" wargame that fewer people can afford. Sure, high-income households will continue to buy in without a care in the world, but middle-to-lower income customers are becoming increasingly reticent to get into a hobby that's going to bleed them for hyper-inflated models and books.

I'll always play Warhammer to some degree, it's been embedded in my brain since I was a youngster; but slowly I've been selling off more of my Warhammer armies in exchange for trying out other companies' games, and I've found myself much more content. AoS is just too expensive...too tiring to play sometimes...and doesn't have me as excited as it once did.

[Arzalyn]

52 minutes ago, Gaz Taylor said:

The LVO is at the end of the month and I think there is a preview then. I suspect most AOS content will be just reveals about the stuff for next few months which has been confirmed as Beast of Chaos and Gloomspite Gits. They might show some Cities stuff but I’m expecting that around March with Adepticon or in May with Warhammer Fest.

I wouldn't be surprised if they revealed which army will be coming after BoC and Gitz if those two aren't getting anything new. If I remember correctly they announced Soulblight models before the Slaanesh/DoK book was released at the end of 2nd. Wasn't the DoK/Nighthaunt box announced before the Idoneth/Fyreslayers book dropped as well?

[Nezzhil]

On 1/15/2023 at 7:53 PM, EntMan said:

New FreeGuild General on pre-order next week 😉🤣

https://www.warhammer-community.com/2023/01/15/sunday-preview-your-emperor-needs-you-join-the-astra-militarum/

Two weeks... meeeeeeh!, I want my gobbos

 

Spoiler

Necromunda
Cawdor riders
Mercator Pallidus Corpse Harvesting Party (Forgeworld)
Rex & Esmeralda (Forgeworld)
Big Goliath Dude (Forgeworld)
Outlander Beastmaster Millisaurs & Ripperjacks  (Forgeworld)

Age of Sigmar
Beast of Chaos - Battletome, Hero, Cards, Dices
Gloomspite Gitz - Battletome, Squigboss, Snarlfangs, Cards, Dices
Spring Order Battletome
Spring Chaos Battletome
Spring Chaos Battletome
Spring Death Battletome
Spring Death Battletome
Summer Order Battletome

Warcry
Bloodhunt
Nightmare's Quest

Underworlds
Second warband + rival's deck

Horus Heresy
Salamander heads + Pauldrons (Forgeworld)
Word Bearers heads + Pauldrons (Forgeworld)
Alpha Legion heads + Pauldrons (Forgeworld)
Exodus (Forgeworld)
Typhon Heavy Siege Tank
Scimitar bikes

Warhammer 40k
Astra Militarum Cadia Release
Astra Militarum Combat Patrol, Rough Riders, Commissar
World Eaters Full Release
Arks of Omen: Angron
Arks of Omen: Vashtorr + Vashtorr
Arks of Omen: Unknown
Boarding boxes (CSM & Ultramarines)
Boarding bases
Battleforce CSM Boarding

 Kill Team 
Winter box

LotR
Osgiliath terrain boxes

Blood Bowl
Bruce

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Nezzhil

[Gaz Taylor]

5 minutes ago, Arzalyn said:

I wouldn't be surprised if they revealed which army will be coming after BoC and Gitz if those two aren't getting anything new. If I remember correctly they announced Soulblight models before the Slaanesh/DoK book was released at the end of 2nd. Wasn't the DoK/Nighthaunt box announced before the Idoneth/Fyreslayers book dropped as well?

Probably. I can’t remember as it feels like ages ago!

Looking at the roadmap again, think you’re right. Looks like a flurry of releases with book and character (guessing Seraphon, Hedonites, Blades, Soulblight and Bonereapers). I think Seraphon will get a bit more with a unit model update.

 

[Elbaf]

2 hours ago, EonChao said:

Kind of surprising there's no new combat patrol for them. I kind of expected it just so every army would have one (apart from Knights anyway)

There is a rumored combat patrol, the same content as the "Cadia Stand" box

Maybe it will be released with the few next imperial Guard products (commissar, riders..) 

 

[KingBrodd]

1 hour ago, Nezzhil said:

Two weeks... meeeeeeh!, I want my gobbos

 

  Hide contents

Necromunda
Cawdor riders
Mercator Pallidus Corpse Harvesting Party (Forgeworld)
Rex & Esmeralda (Forgeworld)
Big Goliath Dude (Forgeworld)
Outlander Beastmaster (Forgeworld)

Age of Sigmar
Beast of Chaos - Battletome, Hero, Cards, Dices
Gloomspite Gitz - Battletome, Squigboss, Snarlfangs, Cards, Dices
Spring Order Battletome
Spring Chaos Battletome
Spring Chaos Battletome
Spring Death Battletome
Spring Death Battletome
Summer Order Battletome

Warcry
Bloodhunt
Nightmare's Quest

Underworlds
Second warband + rival's deck

Horus Heresy
Salamander heads + Pauldrons (Forgeworld)
Word Bearers heads + Pauldrons (Forgeworld)
Alpha Legion heads + Pauldrons (Forgeworld)
Exodus (Forgeworld)
Typhon Heavy Siege Tank

Warhammer 40k
Astra Militarum Cadia Release
Astra Militarum Combat Patrol, Rough Riders, Commissar
World Eaters Full Release
Arks of Omen: Angron
Arks of Omen: Vashtorr + Vashtorr
Arks of Omen: Unknown
Boarding boxes (CSM & Ultramarines)
Battleforce CSM Boarding

LotR
Osgiliath terrain boxes

Blood Bowl
Bruce

 

Absolutely love your list mate!!

34 minutes ago, Gaz Taylor said:

Probably. I can’t remember as it feels like ages ago!

Looking at the roadmap again, think you’re right. Looks like a flurry of releases with book and character (guessing Seraphon, Hedonites, Blades, Soulblight and Bonereapers). I think Seraphon will get a bit more with a unit model update.

 

I think at LVO we will have the next 2 Tomes, Warcry and Underworlds Warbands revealed and...fingers crossed. Seasons of War Gallet.

[Bosskelot]

10 hours ago, Chikout said:

This whole breakdown is based on some pretty dodgy assumptions. Before 2015 gw sales used to be pretty consistent with new edition years giving a bump on sales before settling down again the following year. It made it possible to guage the impact and success of each new edition. This has changed recently. 2018-2019 was the first year every that sales in the year after a 40k launch beat the launch year. In fact gw has had record 6 month period every six months between 2016 and now. This continued growth makes it extremely difficult to guage the impact of particular ranges without direct data from GW. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah it also doesn't give a very clear idea of how consistent the popularity of a game is.

AOD may have had a good launch but it's currently difficult to gauge if ongoing sales of its product ranges are selling well or not.

[King Under the Mountain]

I wouldn’t say AoS 3.0 is complicated compared to 40k. Pretty biased of course but trying to learn to play my new Votann army and holy hell there’s a lot of rules and my army already had to be adjusted for a 3rd time in as many months because they keep changing points cost. 
 

Makes me yearn for the simplicity of AoS.  Fantasy 8th wasn’t nearly this bad. 

[ArcLight]

2 hours ago, Arzalyn said:

I wouldn't be surprised if they revealed which army will be coming after BoC and Gitz if those two aren't getting anything new. If I remember correctly they announced Soulblight models before the Slaanesh/DoK book was released at the end of 2nd. Wasn't the DoK/Nighthaunt box announced before the Idoneth/Fyreslayers book dropped as well?

Re: the timing of Soulblight reveals, there was a potato cam leak of the new vampire on foot which forced their hand a bit with that one.

[Jagged Red Lines]

3 hours ago, Mutton said:

I don't know if anything in that report is accurate. But AoS 3rd is definitely less popular in my area than in previous editions.

Reasons:
1) Don't know how many times we can say this but...the game is too damn complicated. Strategies, battle tactics, battalions, ever-shifting realm rules. It's too much for your average wargamer. Only hardcore competitive players care to commit this stuff to memory, so all of the casual players end up playing a couple of games and then calling it quits. AoS should be the beer and pretzels game you can enjoy even after a long day at work. That's not what it is right now. People can talk all day about how the game has never been more balanced (which is true), but it doesn't matter a lick if nobody wants to spend the brain power to play it in the first place.

2) Prices have been so dramatically bloated in just the past few years that many potential customers are simply left by the wayside. There's a stark difference in prices in AoS from 3-5 years ago to now. Warhammer increasingly becomes the "premium" wargame that fewer people can afford. Sure, high-income households will continue to buy in without a care in the world, but middle-to-lower income customers are becoming increasingly reticent to get into a hobby that's going to bleed them for hyper-inflated models and books.

I'll always play Warhammer to some degree, it's been embedded in my brain since I was a youngster; but slowly I've been selling off more of my Warhammer armies in exchange for trying out other companies' games, and I've found myself much more content. AoS is just too expensive...too tiring to play sometimes...and doesn't have me as excited as it once 

Ive been painting and collecting AoS since launch, but haven't really taken the time to learn the rules or play a game.

Jesus Christ it's overwhelming. I played 6th edition fantasy and 40k back in 5th edition, and I don't remember it being that difficult. Could be just getting old.

But I've been looking with a degree of envy at one page rules, and that is so much more of an elegant game - to me at least.

Would love that to catch on more widely as the stupid/drunk person's alternative