AoS3 - Kruleboyz Discussion

[Neil Arthur Hotep]

38 minutes ago, Arzalyn said:

Thanks for the numbers! May I ask how much re rolling one of the the casting dices improve the chances for a 1 cast wizard? I wondering if the Master of Magic trait could help improve those probabilities and open some reliability on our spell lore without having to go Big Waag for the +1 to cast.

That's actually kinda tricky to calculate. I'll have to get back to you on that.

EDIT: I want to explain why this scenario is hard to calculate.

Previously, I calculated the chance to cast through an unbind this way:

First, I start by calculating the chance to fail. The chance to succeed is just 1-(chance to fail). Total failure chance is (chance to fail to cast)+(chance to be unbound on a successful cast).

Failure chance is pretty straight foreward. But chance to be unbound is not, because it depends on your actual roll. If you succeed a CV 7 spell with a roll of 7, that's easier to unbind than succeeding with a roll of 11. So I calculated the chance for each individual casting roll result that beats casting value, and then the opponent's chance to roll high enough to unbind. Low values are common, but easy to unbind, while high values are rare but hard to unbind, so they all end up being similarly significant.

Now, if I want to figure out how the odds change if you get to reroll one casting die, they no longer just depend on the total casting rolls, but also the individual component rolls of each result. And they are not always the same: Let's say you need to meet CV 7, but only rolled a result of 6. How much does rerolling one die help you?

If you rolled a 6 by rolling a 5 and a 1, you can reroll the 1 and will make CV7 on any result except 1, so in 83% of cases. However, if you rolled 3 and 3, you need to roll higher than 4 to make CV7, so it's now just 50%.

And when we get to the unbinding stage, there are now also a lot more cases to take into account. Like, how likely is it that your opponent will need to beat a result of 7? Normally, there are 6 combinations of numbers on two dice that add up to 7 exactly: 1-6, 2-5, 3-4, 4-3, 5-2 and 6-1. But now, you can also get to 7 in 16% of cases if you reroll one die of the combination 1-1, and so on. Plus, you can ask the question: In what cases is it worth rerolling one of your dice even if you have made your target CV, in order to make unbinding harder, and how does that affect the odds? Like, imagine you roll 1-6 for a CV 7 spell. You should definitely reroll that 1 because it can only make your spell harder to unbind.

Overall, while the odds are possible to calculate, I don't quite know how to get it done efficiently. I don't even really have an intuitive grasp on how good rerolling one die is. For example, I could not tell you if it's better or worse than rerolling failed casts.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Neil Arthur Hotep

[Boar]

1 hour ago, Arzalyn said:

May I ask how much re rolling one of the the casting dices improve the chances for a 1 cast wizard? I wondering if the Master of Magic trait could help improve those probabilities and open some reliability on our spell lore without having to go Big Waag for the +1 to cast.

Master of Magic makes you re-roll whole roll, not one dice

[Arzalyn]

2 hours ago, Neil Arthur Hotep said:

That's actually kinda tricky to calculate. I'll have to get back to you on that.

EDIT: I want to explain why this scenario is hard to calculate.

Previously, I calculated the chance to cast through an unbind this way:

First, I start by calculating the chance to fail. The chance to succeed is just 1-(chance to fail). Total failure chance is (chance to fail to cast)+(chance to be unbound on a successful cast).

Failure chance is pretty straight foreward. But chance to be unbound is not, because it depends on your actual roll. If you succeed a CV 7 spell with a roll of 7, that's easier to unbind than succeeding with a roll of 11. So I calculated the chance for each individual casting roll result that beats casting value, and then the opponent's chance to roll high enough to unbind. Low values are common, but easy to unbind, while high values are rare but hard to unbind, so they all end up being similarly significant.

Now, if I want to figure out how the odds change if you get to reroll one casting die, they no longer just depend on the total casting rolls, but also the individual component rolls of each result. And they are not always the same: Let's say you need to meet CV 7, but only rolled a result of 6. How much does rerolling one die help you?

If you rolled a 6 by rolling a 5 and a 1, you can reroll the 1 and will make CV7 on any result except 1, so in 83% of cases. However, if you rolled 3 and 3, you need to roll higher than 4 to make CV7, so it's now just 50%.

And when we get to the unbinding stage, there are now also a lot more cases to take into account. Like, how likely is it that your opponent will need to beat a result of 7? Normally, there are 6 combinations of numbers on two dice that add up to 7 exactly: 1-6, 2-5, 3-4, 4-3, 5-2 and 6-1. But now, you can also get to 7 in 16% of cases if you reroll one die of the combination 1-1, and so on. Plus, you can ask the question: In what cases is it worth rerolling one of your dice even if you have made your target CV, in order to make unbinding harder, and how does that affect the odds? Like, imagine you roll 1-6 for a CV 7 spell. You should definitely reroll that 1 because it can only make your spell harder to unbind.

Overall, while the odds are possible to calculate, I don't quite know how to get it done efficiently. I don't even really have an intuitive grasp on how good rerolling one die is. For example, I could not tell you if it's better or worse than rerolling failed casts.

Wow that's a lot trickier to calculate than I first thought... Thanks for the explanation on how to do so and sorry for giving you the trouble of trying to come with a way to calculate this, but turns out I was mistaken with what the Master of Magic trait does. As @Boar pointed, it gives a full reroll rather than rerolling just one die. Would this be easier to calculate?

[Neil Arthur Hotep]

3 minutes ago, Arzalyn said:

Wow that's a lot trickier to calculate than I first thought... Thanks for the explanation on how to do so and sorry for giving you the trouble of trying to come with a way to calculate this, but turns out I was mistaken with what the Master of Magic trait does. As @Boar pointed, it gives a full reroll rather than rerolling just one die. Would this be easier to calculate?

I think it will make it easier to do, because it means you don't have to keep track of individual die rolls, just the total values. I will see if I can get that done tomorrow.

[AlmGandix3]

With the Killaboss on bird and the waagh you can double unleash hell and fight with 3 units before your opponent gets to fight in his turn.

This is really nice if you're opponent tries to alpha strike you or you can't get in range first. I like how you have many options even in your opponents turn.

In my list I can swap out the Killaboss and some hobgrots for a upgraded Killaboss (gnashtoof or bird). This might not be the best list overall, but for me the bodies are nice.

Spells, mount traits, strategies etc. Are not final since I still need to pick up my book.

 

Allegiance: Kruleboyz
- Warclan: Big Yellers
- Grand Strategy:
- Triumphs:
Snatchaboss on Sludgeraker Beast (315)
- General
- Command Trait: Supa Sneaky
- Artefact: Amulet of Destiny (Universal Artefact)
- Mount Trait: Fast 'Un
Killaboss with Stab-grot (110)
Swampcalla Shaman with Pot-grot (105)
Swampcalla Shaman with Pot-grot (105)
20 x Gutrippaz (360)
- Reinforced x 1
6 x Man-skewer Boltboyz (240)
- Reinforced x 1
9 x Man-skewer Boltboyz (360)
- Reinforced x 2
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)

Total: 1995 / 2000
Reinforced Units: 4 / 4
Allies: 0 / 400
Wounds: 152
Drops: 12

[Malakree]

15 minutes ago, AlmGandix3 said:

With the Killaboss on bird and the waagh you can double unleash hell and fight with 3 units before your opponent gets to fight in his turn.

The bird doesn't say "a second time" it just says "even if it's already been used". You could have 2 birds to get 3 unleash hell uses.

[AlmGandix3]

11 minutes ago, Malakree said:

The bird doesn't say "a second time" it just says "even if it's already been used". You could have 2 birds to get 3 unleash hell uses.

I like that way of thinking 😄 might be overkill pointswise though

[Jabbuk]

Warscroll Builder is now updated so, the AoS world is good again

First list after discussing some options with you guys previously. I feel like units of Hobgrots are necessary to just create roadblocks and slow down other armies. This could be interesting. 

 

Allegiance: Kruleboyz
- Warclan: Big Yellers
- Grand Strategy:
- Triumphs:

Leaders
Snatchaboss on Sludgeraker Beast (315)
Swampcalla Shaman with Pot-grot (105)
Killaboss on Corpse-Rippa Vulcha (240)

Battleline
10 x Gutrippaz (180)
10 x Gutrippaz (180)
6 x Man-skewer Boltboyz (240)
- Reinforced x 1
6 x Man-skewer Boltboyz (240)
- Reinforced x 1

Units
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)

Artillery
Beast-skewer Killbow (130)
Beast-skewer Killbow (130)

Total: 2000 / 2000
Reinforced Units: 2 / 4
Allies: 0 / 400
Wounds: 138
Drops: 12
 

 

Edited September 22, 2021 by Jabbuk

[AlmGandix3]

@Jabbuk like the list, tell us how it went. I'm especially curious how one shaman and the killbows play.

[Adamcbutton]

Warscroll Builder’s been updated and is showing the Marshcrawla Sloggoth as a Kruleboyz unit, hopefully this means the keyword will be added to its warscroll soon. 

[Neil Arthur Hotep]

Here are the spell casting stats with rerolls:

Casting Value	Odds to succeed	Odds to succeed against unbinds	Odds against unbind (+1 to cast)	Odds against unbind (rerolling)
12	0,03	0,03	0,08	0,05
11	0,08	0,08	0,17	0,16
10	0,17	0,16	0,27	0,3
9	0,28	0,25	0,4	0,45
8	0,42	0,35	0,54	0,59
7	0,58	0,45	0,64	0,69
6	0,72	0,51	0,71	0,71
5	0,83	0,54	0,74	0,68
4	0,92	0,55	0,76	0,63
3	0,97	0,56	0,76	0,58
2	1	0,56	0,76	0,56

 

Rerolling casts is a powerful bonus that I think is generally under-appreciated. On average, it's equivalent to between a +1 and +2 to cast when looking at the most common CVs. But it's not completely straight foreward. The difference is that big bonuses to cast help you get high casting rolls more easily, while rerolls help you meet your CV better. According to the data, rerolls perform the best against +1 to cast in the CV6-8 range, which is lucky for Kruelboyz I guess, since that's what most of their spells require.

The odds to succeed against an unbind with rerolls look a bit odd at first glance. If you look at the lower casting values, you can see that getting out a low CV spell is actually hard than getting out a higher CV spell up to CV6! This is not a mistake, however, and I can explain why this is the case.

In my calculations, I have assumed that you use your rerolls conservatively: You don't reroll if you make your original casting value, even if you have a good chance to roll higher. I calculated the odds to get through an unbind if you can reroll by looking at the odds to get the original casting value on any of the two rolls you get, and then having the opponent unbind as normal. So for CV 2, for example, you would roll, check if you made the CV (yes, because you can't fail CV2) and then keep the roll and let your opponent unbind. Even if the roll is 2, and literally any other roll would be better and rerolling comes with no chance of failure.

But luckily, we can still easily tell from this data when you should be rerolling your successful low-CV casts: At CV 6, you have the overall highest chance to get a spell through if you factor in unbinding. So for any spell with a CV of less than 6, just treat it as being CV 6 (stop rolling only if you get at least a 6 on your casting roll) and you will maximize your chances to get the spell through.

So overall, taking reroll casts is worth a look if you can spare the command trait. It's just too bad that Gobsprakk can't get it. However, a Swampcalla with rerolls and +1 cast from the Arcane Tome seems worth considering if you want to try going more magic heavy.

 

Edited September 22, 2021 by Neil Arthur Hotep

[Ekrund Oath Splitters]

11 hours ago, AlmGandix3 said:

With the Killaboss on bird and the waagh you can double unleash hell and fight with 3 units before your opponent gets to fight in his turn.

This is really nice if you're opponent tries to alpha strike you or you can't get in range first. I like how you have many options even in your opponents turn.

In my list I can swap out the Killaboss and some hobgrots for a upgraded Killaboss (gnashtoof or bird). This might not be the best list overall, but for me the bodies are nice.

Spells, mount traits, strategies etc. Are not final since I still need to pick up my book.

 

Allegiance: Kruleboyz
- Warclan: Big Yellers
- Grand Strategy:
- Triumphs:
Snatchaboss on Sludgeraker Beast (315)
- General
- Command Trait: Supa Sneaky
- Artefact: Amulet of Destiny (Universal Artefact)
- Mount Trait: Fast 'Un
Killaboss with Stab-grot (110)
Swampcalla Shaman with Pot-grot (105)
Swampcalla Shaman with Pot-grot (105)
20 x Gutrippaz (360)
- Reinforced x 1
6 x Man-skewer Boltboyz (240)
- Reinforced x 1
9 x Man-skewer Boltboyz (360)
- Reinforced x 2
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)

Total: 1995 / 2000
Reinforced Units: 4 / 4
Allies: 0 / 400
Wounds: 152
Drops: 12

When you do a waaagh in the enemies combat phase, they still get to strike first with one unit, its when you select your general to fight, not start of the combat phase, so they will always get the first punch and if they somehow kill your general you can't then waaagh. 

[Rachmani]

11 minutes ago, Ekrund Oath Splitters said:

When you do a waaagh in the enemies combat phase, they still get to strike first with one unit, its when you select your general to fight, not start of the combat phase, so they will always get the first punch and if they somehow kill your general you can't then waaagh. 

Exactly. I think that reinforces that Kruleboys want to act rather than react or at least react smartly.

Kruleboys getting charged are generally speaking in for a world of hurt. But charging and starting the combat phase with three units fighting is a different mattrr.

[Ekrund Oath Splitters]

2 minutes ago, Rachmani said:

Exactly. I think that reinforces that Kruleboys want to act rather than react or at least react smartly.

Kruleboys getting charged are generally speaking in for a world of hurt. But charging and starting the combat phase with three units fighting is a different mattrr.

Yea KB have to proactive rather to reactive, we have a lot of incredibly specific abilities that are pretty much once per battle and CAs like AoA and AoD are pretty much wasted on us (apart from a few things like the Breakaboss/Gnashtoof/Snatcha) even IP doesn't have much play when we have/should have a killboss. 

I've played a few games with them so far and got a couple games lined up on Saturday and generally I get the feeling KBs ain't a fire and forget style destruction army, you need a lot of planning and a fair but of luck for VEW. 

[Liquidsteel]

17 hours ago, Neil Arthur Hotep said:

That's actually kinda tricky to calculate. I'll have to get back to you on that.

EDIT: I want to explain why this scenario is hard to calculate.

Previously, I calculated the chance to cast through an unbind this way:

First, I start by calculating the chance to fail. The chance to succeed is just 1-(chance to fail). Total failure chance is (chance to fail to cast)+(chance to be unbound on a successful cast).

Failure chance is pretty straight foreward. But chance to be unbound is not, because it depends on your actual roll. If you succeed a CV 7 spell with a roll of 7, that's easier to unbind than succeeding with a roll of 11. So I calculated the chance for each individual casting roll result that beats casting value, and then the opponent's chance to roll high enough to unbind. Low values are common, but easy to unbind, while high values are rare but hard to unbind, so they all end up being similarly significant.

Now, if I want to figure out how the odds change if you get to reroll one casting die, they no longer just depend on the total casting rolls, but also the individual component rolls of each result. And they are not always the same: Let's say you need to meet CV 7, but only rolled a result of 6. How much does rerolling one die help you?

If you rolled a 6 by rolling a 5 and a 1, you can reroll the 1 and will make CV7 on any result except 1, so in 83% of cases. However, if you rolled 3 and 3, you need to roll higher than 4 to make CV7, so it's now just 50%.

And when we get to the unbinding stage, there are now also a lot more cases to take into account. Like, how likely is it that your opponent will need to beat a result of 7? Normally, there are 6 combinations of numbers on two dice that add up to 7 exactly: 1-6, 2-5, 3-4, 4-3, 5-2 and 6-1. But now, you can also get to 7 in 16% of cases if you reroll one die of the combination 1-1, and so on. Plus, you can ask the question: In what cases is it worth rerolling one of your dice even if you have made your target CV, in order to make unbinding harder, and how does that affect the odds? Like, imagine you roll 1-6 for a CV 7 spell. You should definitely reroll that 1 because it can only make your spell harder to unbind.

Overall, while the odds are possible to calculate, I don't quite know how to get it done efficiently. I don't even really have an intuitive grasp on how good rerolling one die is. For example, I could not tell you if it's better or worse than rerolling failed casts.

I'm not sure if this answers your question at all, but Goonhammer do these graphs for 40k (where re-rolling 1 dice is an option for some armies). It doesn't show the working out, but does provide the probabilities.

 

[Rachmani]

3 minutes ago, Ekrund Oath Splitters said:

Yea KB have to proactive rather to reactive, we have a lot of incredibly specific abilities that are pretty much once per battle and CAs like AoA and AoD are pretty much wasted on us (apart from a few things like the Breakaboss/Gnashtoof/Snatcha) even IP doesn't have much play when we have/should have a killboss. 

I've played a few games with them so far and got a couple games lined up on Saturday and generally I get the feeling KBs ain't a fire and forget style destruction army, you need a lot of planning and a fair but of luck for VEW. 

I‘ve surely played less than you, but overall got the same impression & frankly I love it. 
Points and such can be adjusted. But the style is there.

[AlmGandix3]

Ah m bad with the waagh, thanks for pointing that out.

Yeah kruleboyz definitely can't weather strong charges too well.

[Malakree]

It does show the importance of hobgrot screens though.

[Beliman]

Do you think that Gloomspite Gitz have something that we could use as allies to fill the gaps?

Maybe some cavalry? Or 6 Rockguts with Dobbie behind? Fungoid Shaman CP-battery?

[Jabbuk]

3 hours ago, Malakree said:

It does show the importance of hobgrot screens though.

That's what I was about to say to one of the previous comments who said that KB can't sustain a big charge. I was about to say ''unless you have hobgrots''

[Ganigumo]

1 hour ago, Beliman said:

Do you think that Gloomspite Gitz have something that we could use as allies to fill the gaps?

Maybe some cavalry? Or 6 Rockguts with Dobbie behind? Fungoid Shaman CP-battery?

I'm not sure how desperate Kruleboyz are for CP, sure unleash hell and all out attack is useful on boltboyz but I don't know how unmanageable our CP situation is yet (it doesn't look too bad to me) so I'm not sure about the fungoid.

Webspinner on arachnarok or skragrott would actually give us casters with bonuses, although they don't have many useful spells.

A unit of troggoths could definitely be useful with a sloggoth on the field though. Fellwaters might be better?
Here's the math (3 troggoths with +1 to hit, thanks Dobby!)

I think fellwaters are better here because our mortals are already strong against units with high saves. In my experience rockguts are more durable but fellwaters grind pretty well, and thats a weak point of our army I think. its worth noting troggoths have 2" attack range, so you could realistically get all 6 fighting if you were to reinforce them (doubling this damage).

Something interesting you could do, if you wanted to go troggoth heavy, is bring a dankhold troggboss (who comes in at 250 points, so could have a 3 man fellwater/rockgut escort) to combo with some sloggoths & mirebrute troggoths. The dankhold command ability lets all troggoth units wholly within 18" reroll hit rolls of 1, which works on mirebrutes. Its not a massive damage increase, but we could run a few mirebrutes in a list like that. The numbers (all with +1 to hit)



@Jabbuk looks similar to the list I think will be strong, although imo a second shaman and sludgeraker make it much more consistent. I agree, we're pretty slow overall and are gonna need some cheap bodies/screens to not get destroyed on charges. Boltboyz are going to want to stick close to slugerakers for the bonus to their mortals too. Maybe a gutrippa heavy list could skimp on the hobgrots, but I'm not convinced gutrippa heavy is very strong (even though I'll probably end up running that)

[Dejnar]

Im toying with the following list. Amongst four million other variants. But the main idea is hobgrot screen, pew pew bows and supa sneaky the Breakaboss with flaming weapon for a nasty ambush. 

What do you guys think? 

Allegiance: Kruleboyz
- Warclan: Big Yellers
- Grand Strategy: Hold the Line
- Triumphs: Inspired

Leaders
Snatchaboss on Sludgeraker Beast (315)*
- General
- Command Trait: Supa Sneaky
- Artefact: Amulet of Destiny (Universal Artefact)
- Mount Trait: Loud 'Un
Breaka-Boss on Mirebrute Troggoth (180)**
- Artefact: Arcane Tome (Universal Artefact)
- Universal Spell Lore: Flaming Weapon
Swampcalla Shaman with Pot-grot (105)*
- Lore of the Swamp: Choking Mist
Swampcalla Shaman with Pot-grot (105)*
- Lore of the Swamp: Nasty Hex
Killaboss on Great Gnashtoof (170)**

Battleline
9 x Man-skewer Boltboyz (360)*
- Reinforced x 2
3 x Man-skewer Boltboyz (120)**
3 x Man-skewer Boltboyz (120)**

Units
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)**
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)**
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)**

Artillery
Beast-skewer Killbow (130)**
Beast-skewer Killbow (130)

Core Battalions
*Warlord
**Battle Regiment

Additional Enhancements
Artefact

Total: 1975 / 2000
Reinforced Units: 2 / 4
Allies: 0 / 400
Wounds: 118
Drops: 6
 

[Predien]

15 hours ago, Jabbuk said:

Warscroll Builder is now updated so, the AoS world is good again

First list after discussing some options with you guys previously. I feel like units of Hobgrots are necessary to just create roadblocks and slow down other armies. This could be interesting. 

 

Allegiance: Kruleboyz
- Warclan: Big Yellers
- Grand Strategy:
- Triumphs:

Leaders
Snatchaboss on Sludgeraker Beast (315)
Swampcalla Shaman with Pot-grot (105)
Killaboss on Corpse-Rippa Vulcha (240)

Battleline
10 x Gutrippaz (180)
10 x Gutrippaz (180)
6 x Man-skewer Boltboyz (240)
- Reinforced x 1
6 x Man-skewer Boltboyz (240)
- Reinforced x 1

Units
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)
10 x Hobgrot Slittaz (80)

Artillery
Beast-skewer Killbow (130)
Beast-skewer Killbow (130)

Total: 2000 / 2000
Reinforced Units: 2 / 4
Allies: 0 / 400
Wounds: 138
Drops: 12
 

 

Literally have this same list in my AoS app right now. I'm going to run this as soon as I get my 2nd order in this weekend (fingers crossed). If you've run, this let me know your thoughts on it!

[Jabbuk]

2 hours ago, Predien said:

Literally have this same list in my AoS app right now. I'm going to run this as soon as I get my 2nd order in this weekend (fingers crossed). If you've run, this let me know your thoughts on it!

That's awesome, do let us know you as well, please!

[SunStorm]

I've got a Skumdrekk on order and was looking at the GW images and thinking about those empty cages:

Is anybody else going through ideas in their heads about models that could fit in there as unfortunate souls already captured?