How safe is my faction?

[Chikout]

Given the recent moves by GW, there’s obviously been some consternation about the future of certain factions. I thought I do a post explaining what I think the likelyhood each faction and sub faction has of staying around long term. 
 

First of all a couple of caveats. I’ve been in the hobby for more than 30 years and every GW game I’ve played has had support completely dropped for it at some point. The only game that has hung around the entire time is 40k, which ironically enough is one of the few GW games I don’t play. Warhammer fantasy, BFG, Space Hulk, Necromunda, Inquisitor, Warmaster, Mordheim, Bloodbowl, Aeronautica Imperialis, and my first warhammer game epic (or space marine as it was known then) have all been dropped by GW at some point. There’s no guarantee they won’t do the same for AoS so nothing is 100% safe.

Secondly, this is just speculation based on my previous experiences.m

Anyway let’s get started. 

Underworlds- IN DANGER . I’m honestly surprised the game has lasted as long as it has. I think GW will separate it from AoS. In 4th edition new warbands will get digital warscrolls only . They will never appear in books. Warbands will be kept in stock for two or so years then disappear. There’s a risk the whole game will get canceled but I hope the scale it back to 4 warbands a year before they do that. 
 

Warcry - AT RISK  I think Warcry will move to a killteam model where new warbands with their use in AoS more directly in mind like the Gorgers. Any warband that doesn’t fit that mold is in danger of being dropped.

 

Order 

Lumineth. - VERY SAFE. All new miniatures. The range isn’t too bloated and Aelves are always popular. 

Idoneth Deepkin - VERY SAFE . Even tough there hasn’t been much support for them, they are fairly popular with players and painters. I expect to see them get an update in 4th.

Daughters of Khaine.  FAIRLY SAFE. Morathi is one of the most popular characters in the setting. There are however some kits that a bit old which could get dropped or resculpted in the future especially the warlocks.

Kharadron Overlords. SAFE. A new range of kits that are fairly popular. A small risk of the book being souped with other Duardin. 

Fyreslayers AT RISK. Comfortably the least popular new faction. The sculpts of the core troops are disliked by many. They’ve hit on a much more popular design with the flameseekers but that might be too late. I’m hoping for new kits but if you aren’t already invested I’d hold off until we see the 4th edition book. 

Seraphon - SAFE A very popular army but the older kits are at risk especially the temple guard. Hoping for a new sculpt for them.

Cities of Sigmar- Humans- VERY SAFE except the steam tank. Duardins and Aelves IN DANGER. I’d hold off buying any of those until you see the new book.

Sylvaneth - SAFE. Another very popular army. Dryads may get a new sculpt

Stormcast. 3rd edition or later -SAFE. 1st edition models - AT RISK. I think that Stormcast has been the grand experiment of AoS. They’ve found a design that is better liked than before. I think they’ll stick with the new design for quite a while. Once they decided to change the design the models release just before that change were always going to be the worst off. 
 

Chaos

Slaves to Darkness - SAFE   but some older models IN DANGER  I’m amazed the manticore and Soul grinder didn’t get cut already. 

Khorne- SAFE but a lot of models AT RISK. Quite a large portion of the range is on the older side and suffers from similar early AoS problems as the Stormcast. 

Nurgle- SAFE but we may see some new plague bearers soon.

Tzeentch - SAFE. Mostly newish good looking kits.

Slaanesh - SAFE - A mostly resculpted range. Some of the older daemon models may get redone.

Skaven - SAFE    but turn a big update often  means things get dropped.

 

Death

Soulblight - SAFE but there are still a lot of older kits which are AT RISK

Flesh Eater Courts SAFE but the older plastics  are AT RISK. They may be changed or dropped especially the alternative  hero builds of the old kits

Nighthaunt - VERY SAFE a very popular army with a well liked aesthetic. Only the Hexwraiths are AT RISK.

Ossiarch Bonereapers - FAIRLY SAFE a somewhat controversial faction, it may have lost players to Tomb Kings but mostly new kits.

 

Destrction 

Gloomspite Gits Moonclan, Squigs and Troggoths- VERY SAFE. Spiderfang IN DANGER. One of the most popular factions in the game but the Spiderfang have been completely ignored so far. The grots may get a resculpt. 

Sons of Behemat - VERY SAFE. The mancrusher kit may be redone.

Ogor Matribes - IN DANGER  After Skaven they have the most legacy miniatures and have received limited support in AoS. Until we get a credible leak from the Whitefangs or official word from GW on a big 4th edition update, I’d avoid investing in them if you aren’t already.

Orruk Warclans - SAFE After the culling there’s room for the faction to grow.

 

 

 

 

[EntMan]

56 minutes ago, Chikout said:

Sylvaneth - SAFE. Another very popular army. Dryads may get a new sculpt

Dryads, if they do get a resculpt, will likely get a re-naming as well to a unique Games Workshop name. They may also just fade back to the old world as there is both Tree and Spite Revs as infantry.

Also not confident about Treelords staying in AoS, they are the other kit from WHFB with a non IP'd name. 

 

[Still-young]

6 minutes ago, EntMan said:

Dryads, if they do get a resculpt, will likely get a re-naming as well to a unique Games Workshop name. They may also just fade back to the old world as there is both Tree and Spite Revs as infantry.

Also not confident about Treelords staying in AoS, they are the other kit from WHFB with a non IP'd name. 

 

There are new Dryad sculpts in the Sylvaneth Warcry warband that isn’t even out yet. 

[EntMan]

2 minutes ago, Still-young said:

There are new Dryad sculpts in the Sylvaneth Warcry warband that isn’t even out yet. 

There are, and they look great. But I don't think that means they are long term safe in AoS though.

[Tonhel]

Great post!

I am a bit suprised that you think Underworlds and warcry are in danger. I think it adds more customers to GW, even when they are not interested in AoS main.

Ofcourse they could remove all AoS sidegames and focus all their resources on AoS main. Maybe bringing back TOW has an impact on the resources. It seems unlikely as it are two seperate studios, but who knows.

 

Edited April 7 by Tonhel

[Son Of Morghur]

40 minutes ago, EntMan said:

Also not confident about Treelords staying in AoS, they are the other kit from WHFB with a non IP'd name.

I strongly doubt, that the Treelords are going back. The distinction in their style is there and they definitely had already been designed to fit the AoS Sylvaneth army. Also Wood Elves got their release really late pretty shortly before Age Of Sigmar.

All modern Sylvaneth elements are there: they've got runes carved in their bark, their loincloth is very similar to the new AoS Style and they have noting in common with any of the Fantasy Wood Elves Tree range. I think that they're gonna bing back the ancient treelord model!

[Davariel]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the two small Nighthaunt heroes disappear at some point too (the Cairn Wraith and Tomb Banshee). They're slightly older and are have had their concept largely taken over by newer units.

[Bosskelot]

9 minutes ago, Tonhel said:

Great post!

I am a bit suprised that you think Underworlds and warcry are in danger. I think it adds more customers to GW, even when they are not interested in AoS main.

Ofcourse they could remove all AoS sidegames and focus all their resources on AoS main. Maybe bringing back TOW has an impact on the resources. It seems unlikely as it are two seperate studios, but who knows.

 

It really depends on how GW sees them or how actually profitable they are. Underworlds has always seemed like it did very well and didn't seem like a crazy expensive to produce system (maybe it is; idk what the RoI is on cards and the like) but these giant big limited edition prestige boxes for Warcry have always seemed very strange. Doubly so when hearing back from my LGS contacts about how aggressively GW has tried to push them in the past; basically trying to get these places to order almost the same amount as Indomitus or Dominion for whatever seasonal Warcry box is coming out. It gets even weirder when Kill Team gets very few allocations.

It's almost like that very first Warcry release in 2019 was such a surprise success they overcommitted to it and thought those sorts of numbers would keep on going up and up.

[Tonhel]

6 minutes ago, Son Of Morghur said:

I strongly doubt, that the Treelords are going back. The distinction in their style is there and they definitely had already been designed to fit the AoS Sylvaneth army. Also Wood Elves got their release really late pretty shortly before Age Of Sigmar.

All modern Sylvaneth elements are there: they've got runes carved in their bark, their loincloth is very similar to the new AoS Style and they have noting in common with any of the Fantasy Wood Elves Tree range. I think that they're gonna bing back the ancient treelord model!

The only difference  between the TOW and AoS is that for AoS it is a Treelord Ancient and for TOW it is a Treeman Ancient. For AoS naming this a neglectable difference. The treemen in TOW has two base sizes included. One for the old metal one and one for the current one in AoS.

Treelords/Treemen are an evolution of the Dryad sculpts. It is perfect possible that the current Dryads and Treelord mini's move to TOW when the Wood Elves Arcane journal is released and Sylvaneth get new sculpts with  the same improvements as seen in their warcry unit.

[Tonhel]

12 minutes ago, Bosskelot said:

It really depends on how GW sees them or how actually profitable they are. Underworlds has always seemed like it did very well and didn't seem like a crazy expensive to produce system (maybe it is; idk what the RoI is on cards and the like) but these giant big limited edition prestige boxes for Warcry have always seemed very strange. Doubly so when hearing back from my LGS contacts about how aggressively GW has tried to push them in the past; basically trying to get these places to order almost the same amount as Indomitus or Dominion for whatever seasonal Warcry box is coming out. It gets even weirder when Kill Team gets very few allocations.

It's almost like that very first Warcry release in 2019 was such a surprise success they overcommitted to it and thought those sorts of numbers would keep on going up and up.

True,

What I have seen from other miniature companies (Footsore) cards are expensive. It's also why printed warscrolls and such are not a permanent item.

It's also a fact that i.e Kill Team: Nightmare is already sold out online while Pyre and Flood is still available. While the later is probably produced in smaller numbers. Both were on pre-order this saturday.

The question is also, how good does those UW and Warcry boxes sell after it's initial release. If it doesn't sell well afterwards it is just dead weight.

Edited April 7 by Tonhel

[Chikout]

17 minutes ago, Tonhel said:

Great post!

I am a bit suprised that you think Underworlds and warcry are in danger. I think it adds more customers to GW, even when they are not interested in AoS main.

Ofcourse they could remove all AoS sidegames and focus all their resources on AoS main. Maybe bringing back TOW has an impact on the resources. It seems unlikely as it are two seperate studios, but who knows.

 

I don't think the game of warcry itself is in danger. I think they might change the focus more towards adding units that can also be easily used in mainline AoS. That's means that any Warcry warbands which don't fit that criteria could end up getting cut from the main game

As for Underworlds. They said that lots of warbands are only going to get digital rules next edition even while they are on sale so they too will be cut from the main game. 

Also if you look on the UK GW site there are currently 4 underworlds box sets available. It's possible that they just made loads of them but it doesn't look like the game is selling that well. 

[EonChao]

40 minutes ago, EntMan said:

There are, and they look great. But I don't think that means they are long term safe in AoS though.

Warcry and Underworlds are both handled by the same studio as AoS, sculpt wise at least. If they're making things in that, especially in Warcry, then it's with a view to use it in AoS. There may be exceptions (and the Sylvaneth are the biggest of those with how diverse the model types are in it even by Warcry standards), but their designing them from Heart of Ghur onwards with a vision for how they fit into the current AoS armies rather than just being explorations of the niches of factions like Warcry 1.0 was for Chaos

13 minutes ago, Tonhel said:

Great post!

I am a bit suprised that you think Underworlds and warcry are in danger. I think it adds more customers to GW, even when they are not interested in AoS main.

Ofcourse they could remove all AoS sidegames and focus all their resources on AoS main. Maybe bringing back TOW has an impact on the resources. It seems unlikely as it are two seperate studios, but who knows.

 

Underworlds probably isn't in danger. It seems to sell well and be fairly popular event wise. From a design perspective it's a useful testing ground for new sculptors and existing ones to flex their muscles and make some truly inventive new models. I do think they'll move away from including them in the Battle tomes, but they'll still likely get datasheets or have equivalent models in AoS you can use them to represent.

Warcry is a bit more uncertain, it seems to be less popular but I think that's why they've moved to the new smaller boxes model with both it and Kill Team. Again it's a useful tool for releasing new units for AoS factions that aren't getting a major focus this edition as well as building hype towards upcoming releases. Like Kill Team it's also probably a decent driver of terrain sales. Depending on what targets they have for it and how important they think it is to have a fantasy skirmish game to not lose sales to the many other ones in the market, it's probably safe.

TOW has no effect on AoS resources, separate studios are handling the models and separate studios are handling the rules. The main thing seems to be the supposed siloing of factions to make it easier to track metrics.

21 minutes ago, Davariel said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see the two small Nighthaunt heroes disappear at some point too (the Cairn Wraith and Tomb Banshee). They're slightly older and are have had their concept largely taken over by newer units.

Like the old resin Maggotkin sorcerer they're probably ideal candidates for making a new hero release to go with a new battletome. I think they'll be safe for now until they do that. That said the Myrmourn and Grimghasts both occupy the same space but with the new regiment system you could see those characters work with those units better in regiments instead of awkwardly being very similar

16 minutes ago, Tonhel said:

The only difference  between the TOW and AoS is that for AoS it is a Treelord Ancient and for TOW it is a Treeman Ancient. For AoS naming this a neglectable difference. The treemen in TOW has two base sizes included. One for the old metal one and one for the current one in AoS.

Treelords/Treemen are an evolution of the Dryad sculpts. It is perfect possible that the current Dryads and Treelord mini's move to TOW when the Wood Elves Arcane journal is released and Sylvaneth get new sculpts with  the same improvements as seen in their warcry unit.

The treelord base thing is because it was a WFB kit, so there are people who brought it and still have it on a square base in their Wood Elf armies. Sales wise they're going to keep them separate though and the Treelord does fit the Kuronoth Hunters/Revenents feel much better than the Dryads.

If the Dryads were going to go then they just had the best opportunity to do so with the recent cull. Wood Elves are bound to be no more than a year out for TOW and they were happy to remove the Branchwraith

[TheHeartbreakPrince]

Hello I made an account to tell people Ogors aren't getting squatted. They are Legends in ToW because the main studio has designs for them. Same as chaos dwarfs.

That doesn't mean all the models are staying or that resin will get a direct replacement in all cases. It's a safe faction though.

[Tonhel]

1 hour ago, TheHeartbreakPrince said:

Hello I made an account to tell people Ogors aren't getting squatted. They are Legends in ToW because the main studio has designs for them. Same as chaos dwarfs.

That doesn't mean all the models are staying or that resin will get a direct replacement in all cases. It's a safe faction though.

Welcome 🙂

But alas, this doesn't mean anything. As Chikout explained well. Nothing is safe in the long term. This doesn't mean I think Ogors will be removed. I don't think anything is really safe. 

I wouldn't be suprised if one of those TOW legacy factions will be moved to a core faction sooner than later. I can perfectly see when CoS gets it's AoS 4th edition book that the old Dark Elves are removed and that Dark Elves become a core faction in TOW. Which hopefully means that CoS gets specific CoS elves.

 

 

[Gitzdee]

I dont mind the limited support of Warcry and Underworlds warbands, it had always been a get them while they are hot item and some of them got a separate release.for AoS i guess because of popular demand but without cards. Most of these have been perfrcr proxy material for existing units and i think it should stay that way. Nobody hurt when they get removed from AoS. But still they are best in their own game systems.

[JerekKruger]

8 hours ago, Chikout said:

Warhammer fantasy, BFG, Space Hulk, Necromunda, Inquisitor, Warmaster, Mordheim, Bloodbowl, Aeronautica Imperialis, and my first warhammer game epic (or space marine as it was known then)

So many excellent games dropped by GW. Is rare BFG as one of their best games ever. I also want to pour one of for Warhammer Quest (my gateway, asking with CRPGs, into true tabletop role playing) and Man 'O War (who doesn't want a game where High Elves strap a pair of razorblades on the front of a giant catamaran (which has a literal castle at the back) and speed around cutting enemy ships on two).

[Gareth 🍄]

I think Ogors are 'safe' but probably going to get a big update so I personally wouldn't buy them right now. I reckon the main studio has plans for them in AoS as they're not one of the factions in The Old World receiving ongoing support from the specialist team.

I'd say Orruk Warclans are 'very safe' with Bonesplitterz gone. They're among the more popular factions, and I doubt GW will ever entirely remove Orcs from a flagship fantasy game. They're also now fully AoS models and have next to no bloat in the range.

Edited April 7 by Gareth 🍄

[woolf]

For the coming 3yrs everything in AoS should be safe, they would want to rip the bandaid and not dripfeed discontinuation as ppl react so strong to it. Beyond that horizon who knows... Also agree Underworlds/Warcry migth go away, eg replaced by Spearhead format which is probably a better starting point for new players as much closer to the main game

[Chikout]

2 minutes ago, woolf said:

For the coming 3yrs everything in AoS should be safe, they would want to rip the bandaid and not dripfeed discontinuation as ppl react so strong to it. Beyond that horizon who knows... Also agree Underworlds/Warcry migth go away, eg replaced by Spearhead format which is probably a better starting point for new players as much closer to the main game

It is a possibility but I really hope Warcry doesn’t go away. I listed all those games I played at the top but Warcry is comfortably my favourite. 

[woolf]

4 minutes ago, Chikout said:

It is a possibility but I really hope Warcry doesn’t go away. I listed all those games I played at the top but Warcry is comfortably my favourite. 

yeah u are probably rigth, I just think that Spearhead feels uncomfortably overlapping (from a warcry safety perspective)

[The Lost Sigmarite]

10 hours ago, Chikout said:

Fyreslayers AT RISK. Comfortably the least popular new faction. The sculpts of the core troops are disliked by many. They’ve hit on a much more popular design with the flameseekers but that might be too late. I’m hoping for new kits but if you aren’t already invested I’d hold off until we see the 4th edition book. 

FS are always the butt of jokes from the community because of their lack of popularity, but when you look at community events, forums, or even the local clubs and game stores, there's always some FS representation and then you realise there's more FS players than you ever realised. I think they have carved their niche in the community albeit small, and they've played a big role in the current end of edition narrative. They're popular still, but not that popular. A bit like Votann & Chaos Knights in 40k. 

I personally think FS will stay, but the'll always remain a small army and I think GW might want to reboot the range at some point. So my take is that I agree with you, if you want to buy FS, buy flameseekers and the AoS3 characters, maybe a magmadroth, but be careful when buying vulkites/hearthguards and other AoS1 kits because GW might redo them sooner rather than later. 

[RetconnedLegion]

I’d imagine the biggest risk to Underworlds is another wave of issues around getting cardstock components printed. Otherwise I think the game itself is largely safe, even if individual warbands don’t last long.

Likewise Warcry has turned into AoS Kill Team, a way to release kits that don’t necessarily justify being made a full AoS release. Those that sell well will likely make the shift to a proper AoS release - Darkoath being the best example for AoS.

The factions at risk are those that still use a large number of WHFB leftover kits. That means the non-Human Cities units and Ogors for the most part. Skaven are getting their refresh, Ogors are rumoured for one, but Cities Aelfs and Duardin are likely to vanish with the next Battletome.

 

Edited April 7 by RetconnedLegion

[The Red King]

What a fun conversation to have to have a DECADE into the life of the game.

[BarakUrbaz]

I think Fyreslayers are completely safe due to this https://www.warhammer-community.com/2024/01/01/celebrate-this-years-store-anniversaries-with-a-fyreslayer-and-a-tau-empire-ethereal/

I mean, I'm pretty sure that alone is a sign GW still has plans for them. 

[Big Kim Woof-Woof]

Sometimes GW can surprise you. I was damn sure Slaanesh was getting booted out when AoS was a newborn. Could have never predicted the glory that is the current Slaanesh range! 

Now if only we could have our god back...