Total Sales of GW products

[Rodiger]

Over the weekend I've seen a number of 35,000 total sales in 3 years for Dark Imperium being bandied around on forums. This number surprised me, as I thought it seemed quite low for what is basically GW main product, the 40k starter set. Does anyone know if this is accurate? Is it a good number of sales? Is it low? 

It also got me thinking about what are usual sales numbers for their products, how many sales does Soul Wars have? How many sales do they make of things like Underworlds? or your standard infantry box release? How many sales did previous starter sets make? What about those battle boxes that come out every few months?

I am basing this on no evidence at all but I am thinking that 35,000 must be missing some caveats of information, like, total U.S sales or total U.S sales to independant stockists. Especially as they said  they would make 'tens of thousands' extra of Indomitus (this isn't designed to be a conversation about Indomitus), which is basically the same thing as Dark Imperium was, two push fit starter armies and the rule book. 

Some quick back of a napkin maths, but 12,000 sales world wide for 1 year divided by 20 countries they have webstores for (excluding ROW and Rest of EU) is 600 copies, divide that by 12 you get 50 sales a month each for those entire counties, and that is excluding a lot of countries, and assuming all markets are the same size. It just feels too low.  

If it is true, maybe things ate into sales like, free rules, there being 3 starters, the small one; First Strike, the medium one; Know No Fear and Dark Imperium, and a lot of the models being included in Warhammer Conquest.

What do other people know about the 35,000 sales or normal sales they make? 

[Joseph Mackay]

Well I was told by my gw store manager (also a personal friend), that there were about 7000 copies allocated for Indominous for Australia and New Zealand combined (everything is shipping is the AU warehouse so they lump the 2 countries together). So take from that number what you will.

side note: the assumption that gw staff don’t know anything is false, or at least not entirely true. They generally don’t know anything about releases until the same time we do, with the exception of ‘big’ releases (Dark Imperium, Soul Wars, Warcry etc) as they usually have ‘manager meetings’ where they get to touch new stuff and learn the rules so they can teach customers when the product releases

[zilberfrid]

Post in wrong thread

Edited July 20, 2020 by zilberfrid

[Chikout]

Nobody knows how much of something gw sells except gw. Any numbers you do see are probably just guess work. All we do know is that in the 3 years that dark imperium was on the market gw did about £650 million of business not counting royalties. 35,000 copies of dark imperium would be about 0.5% of that which is maybe a little lower than you would expect from their flagship product but they do sell thousands of products now so its not impossible. 

[JPjr]

someone on twitter was claiming that their mate whose mate works for GW said the initial Indomitus run was 100,000 copies and that it was more than GW have ever produced in one go of a box.

but god knows whether that has any basis in reality as for a hobby about weird fantasies it's certainly got its fair share of weird fantasists.

[Rodiger]

100,000 seems a lot especially as it was sold out in 10 minutes. I have no interest in that box, was it that much better than Dark Imperium, (I liked that box set much more personally.) But if it was 100,000 then that 35,000 can't be right. I suspect both are wrong.

To go back to how much an injection mould costs, I'd imagine 35,000 sales isn't a huge profit margin especially when all other production costs are taken into consideration. And you'd expect that to be the highest selling single item.  But 35,000 sales is 3.3 million pounds so maybe it is enough. 

 

[JPjr]

14 minutes ago, Rodiger said:

100,000 seems a lot especially as it was sold out in 10 minutes.

whilst, YES I agree, the counterpoint to that is that the 100K would have been divided across all the regions, so what someone was saying 7500 for AUS/NZ, lets say 20K for the UK, 15K all of Europe, 20K US or whatever plus how ever many units that were set aside to be available in store on launch day (please note I'm clearly just randomly pulling numbers out of my ****** here).

so in that case with huge demand each regional store could have sold out their allocation quickly even with such large numbers, especially as the day went on, people saw it selling out quickly in regions that went live before them and the FOMO kicked in. I know I hadn't planned to get it on day 1 and then the madness hit me.

 

[Mcprowlington]

31 minutes ago, Rodiger said:

100,000 seems a lot especially as it was sold out in 10 minutes. I have no interest in that box, was it that much better than Dark Imperium, (I liked that box set much more personally.) But if it was 100,000 then that 35,000 can't be right. I suspect both are wrong.

 

GW did say they printed more of the indomitus box than any box they've ever printed in warhammer history.  I could almost see these numbers being close, especially considering they may have printed more of the indomitus box to compensate for the fact  that there was never supposed to be more than one run.

I think when they said "it was never our intention for people that want a box to not have a chance to get it" they really did mean it.

[Rodiger]

I'd be inclined to believe the 100,000 over the 35,000. I mean that's quite a huge step up in production, and quite a gamble when on the face of it, you are gambling some more Primaris Marines and Necrons are going to be that much more popular than the original release of Primaris Marines and the release of Deathguard as an army for the first time. Thats nearly 3 times the total sales of the 8th editon box set if the 35,000 is true.

I can't say I've ever wondered about total sales before but I'd imagine around 100,000 world wide would seem right for something like a starter set. Or the hundreds of thousands, anything in the millions would seem a bit too high. 

It could be the 100,000 split world wide could sell out that fast. I've gotten Glastonbury tickets before. I know how fast large amounts of things can sell out. It's not the first time GW have underestimated demand, I remember Shadow War and Titanicus caught them out too.

[Vakarian]

Chatter on Bolter and Chainsword had the 35,000 number being the amount reserved for US FLGS’s. It seems like the total produced is probably an order of magnitude higher once you consider GW online sales and sales in the UK, EU, Oz, and the rest of the world. 
 

That would make a lot more sense, by the numbers @Rodiger posted in the OP. Our hobby isn’t huge, but 40k is a larger product than something that would average only 50 sales/month of a flagship box across 20 target market countries. One state in the US like NY, CA, or FL would post higher numbers than that alone. 
 

That said, unless GW suddenly pulls back the curtain, we probably won’t know the production numbers for certain. 

[Rodiger]

1 hour ago, Vakarian said:

Chatter on Bolter and Chainsword had the 35,000 number being the amount reserved for US FLGS’s. It seems like the total produced is probably an order of magnitude higher once you consider GW online sales and sales in the UK, EU, Oz, and the rest of the world. 

I think I first saw something about it quoted from a Spikey Bits article, it's Spikey Bits so make of that whatever you want.

" GW was rumored to be bragging about selling 27,000 copies already (more than 8th Edition’s Dark Imperium in the last 3 years"

That is claiming that Dark Imperium was under  27,000, which just sounds ridiculous. I think these numbers have been chucked around with no basis in fact and have been misquoted and misremembered. I think I also saw the 35,000 on Bolter and Chainsword but in reference to Dark Imperium total sales.

I'd love some actual sales data ha ha. I'm intrigued about how many copies of things sell.

 

[Vakarian]

I’d love to see it too, I’m very interested in GW’s business model, and I’d also like to see what unspoken numbers of people buy their models and play their games but aren’t in the online communities. It seems like it must be a pretty large number.

 

The posts I followed on B&C had Dark Imperium estimated at 250,000 copies sold in three years. That makes a lot more sense to me than Spikey Bits’ numbers (and like you said, grain of salt there!). 
 

There are now well upwards of 320 million people in the US. The EU as a whole sits at similar numbers. If only 1 million people in each play 40k or purchase the models at all (that’s actually a pretty small player base, all things considered) then 250,000 copies of the main starter set make a lot more sense than 27,000, which would reflect a player base (worldwide!) of less than a million people, and that’s assuming that only single-digit percentage points of your player base buy the basic starter set. 
 

The 27,000 number just doesn’t track for a company posting the profits GW is making. 
 

To keep this somewhat AoS related: of course, the AoS player base is much smaller, so 40k numbers will look a good bit larger. But I think the 250,000 number makes a lot more sense and gives some insight into how large the hobby has actually grown. 

[Rodiger]

250,000 sounds right to me. If someone told me Dark Imperium sold 250,000 copies in 3 years I'd think that sounded very credible. If someone said 1 million I'd be shocked and question that, and if someone said 35,000 I would also be shocked, hence this post. 

I'm also very interested in their buisness model, I'd love them to do a behind the scenes documentary explaining the whole process from idea, to shop shelf too, but that's quite a digression. 

 

[zilberfrid]

I suspect they underestimated how many people want to paint minis in a lockdown situation.

[Saturmorn Carvilli]

I believe GW when they say that Indomitus was most produced box set my a wide margin.  It still boggles my mind that it sold out as fast at it did.  I mean I like just about all the space marine models in it and they would/will make fine additions to my collection.  Even at this point, I haven't really looked that close at the Necron models or rules.  I figured they'd be easy to paint and would have expanded my small kill team nicely.  Point is, limited or not, it was just Space Marines and Necrons. 

The space marines are even that great of a place to start an army if you ask me as a Primaris only space marine player.  Assault Intercessors look good, but aren't going to work nearly as well as Intercessors with some kind of bolt rifle.  The Bladeguard and Eradicators are probably going to need a Repulsor to work well.  Perhaps another 3 in their squads (if they are allowed 6 marines).  Which if they are anything like the Aggressors is a lot points in a single high-profile basket.  The bikes will probably be fine, but definitely will need more than 3 of them to work.  Since this isn't a 40k forum, the point is; Indomitus marines are pretty specific in their roles compared the more generic stuff found in Dark Imperium, Know No Fear or First Strike.  I would go as far as saying even if their role is fun, it will probably be kinda hard to accomplish.  Finally, I do think the days of marines having great rules are numbered.  I think by this time next year, there's a good chance marines are going to be back in the middle of pack or worst.

I honestly can't tell if space marines will flood the secondary markets next year.  I mean I think there's a good chance that a good number of players are going to find 40k not to their liking.  Or if marines get nerfed back in line, there may be piles Indomitus stuff on eBay.  At the same time, I have been trying to get a cheap set of Infiltrators/Incursors from Saga of the Beast, but they have consistently stayed within 80% of retail.  I know I was planning on spending a month or so working on my space marine army when I got the new set.  I still have a bunch of Primaris stuff still to paint, but Indomitus is months away for me now. 

What I am getting at is I am surprised that Indomitus sold so fast while I am sure that better space marine starters such as Know No Fear are/were available if the goal was to start 40k.  Maybe they were all bought up too.  I don't maybe there are just that many people that want to start Necrons.  I just don't know where all these customers came from as I don't really think scaplers and FOMO'ers could have made up that much of the numbers.  Could they?

[Overread]

Don't forget over the last two years or more GW has been training their fanbase in how to sell off half a boxed set we don't want. Through all the duel army sets people have got very used to secondhand trading model sets far more than in the past. 

 

Along comes Indomitus with a discount so good that if you don't actually want either army you can sell them for half the price of the box and basically get yourself a free Rule Book. So a I'd wager a portion of the market are just that, getting the box and splitting BOTH sets of models and keeping the rules for themselves. 

 

Ontop of that its a very good deal for either army and its all totally new models on both sides, both in terms of sculpts and also in terms of totally new unit types. So suddenly you've got a box with a steep discount and brand new shiny toys for two armies. Any person playing those armies or tempted to play them is really tempted to grab a box. Even if some might never go beyond the box's contents, its still a fantastic deal to get a hold of.

Finally its limited which instantly makes people panic buy far more quickly. 

Couple all that to a lockdown where people aren't eating out; aren't going out and might not even be commuting to work and you've likely got a semi-affluent portion of the customer base who are still able to afford and might even have a bit more disposable money in some territories. So suddenly you've got a lot of people able to afford it at the same time. 

 

I'm not surprised it sold out, at the same time I'm not surprised that GW got caught short. A lto of bits have come together to make it a really fancy and desirable set to get and that means that there are loads of elements pushing the sales up. 

[Vakarian]

Great points both about the background circumstances that amplified interest in Indomitus. That level of interest is unlikely to repeat in an AoS set anytime soon but I’d bet that AoS sees increased sales too given how the game, and GW, are going.

 

I snagged Indomitus as an easy and incredibly cost efficient entry point to 40k because I’ve wanted to do both Marines and Necrons for some time, so in that sense I was the perfect customer. But honestly, for the price of the box with a full rulebook included, I would have bought it even if I was only interested in one faction, and not have been too concerned if I had a hard time splitting off the other. 
 

If GW keeps building 2-player sets like this they’ll snag a *lot* of customers who see a serious value for even half of the box’s contents at the comparative prices to individual kits. The models are so good that the old concern about monopose seems to be a lot less important (it certainly is for me; I’m happy enough with the monopose models they’ve made in both AoS and 40k recently, but I’ve also been in the hobby long enough I’m very comfortable either kitbashing or converting monopose models too). 

[Falkman]

13 hours ago, Vakarian said:

I’d also like to see what unspoken numbers of people buy their models and play their games but aren’t in the online communities. It seems like it must be a pretty large number.

Just to briefly touch on this; yes, of course it's a pretty large number. Taking active part in an online community is generally something only a small part of any given fanbase does, regardless of whether that is miniature gamers, video gamers, grilling fans, people who cycle for exercise etc. Most people with a hobby or interest generally just go about doing that hobby or interest. Seeking out people online to actively participate in discussions about their interests is not very common.

[Rodiger]

I've been scratching my head all week really as to the response to Indomitus, I find space marines as well as stormcasts quite hard to get excited about as models really, it's more that they suffer from basically being exactly the same, someone in armour, so it comes down to their pose and there is only so much to get excited about with that. And I have no love of Necrons. Anyway that is a subjective point that is also quite a digression

@Saturmorn Carvilli I had no idea about how they play in game. I haven't played 40k since 7th edition. I had assumed Indomitus would be released as the starter with the standard rule book and a few of the characters taken out for a cheaper price. It begs the question what is the starter then if this is truly limited. I can't see them not releasing the components separately though. 

Back on to topic, I'd imagine Indomitus will seriously eat into the starters sales, as a lot of people who would buy that have just bought Indomitus and I doubt many want a second rule book.

[RuneBrush]

Let's be honest, one of the reasons Indomitus sold so well is because the pricing of it was reminiscent of the price of models in 1990...  If you deduct the £40 rulebook, each force works out at £42.50.  That's lower than a start collecting box and significantly more models.  It's no surprise they sold out as quickly as they did, because people were afraid that somebody would realise what a good price it was and bump it up!  Over the past 5 years or so, £125 isn't perceived as being "that" expensive anymore either (especially when you may spend £80 on one model), so it won't have needed a huge amount of thought to pick it up - especially if (like myself) you intend to split it.

It was also a scalpers / bits company dream product.  Super cheap but containing lots of really good content.  Even selling the characters at £10 each, you've pretty much broken even!

Starter set wise, I wonder if we're going to see something that is aimed at an introductory level, where if you're an existing collector it's not that desirable.  So, easy to build miniatures that already exist, with a cut-down version of the rule book.  Perhaps with a more realistic price point too - somewhere around the £50 mark.  It wouldn't surprise me to see this appearing outside of GW stores too - bit like you used to have when you could pick 2nd ed 40k up in Argos (can't see cardboard scenery making a come back though)

[EccentricCircle]

42 minutes ago, RuneBrush said:

Starter set wise, I wonder if we're going to see something that is aimed at an introductory level, where if you're an existing collector it's not that desirable.  So, easy to build miniatures that already exist, with a cut-down version of the rule book.  Perhaps with a more realistic price point too - somewhere around the £50 mark.  It wouldn't surprise me to see this appearing outside of GW stores too - bit like you used to have when you could pick 2nd ed 40k up in Argos (can't see cardboard scenery making a come back though)

That makes a lot of sense. It seems like, of late, the starter sets have more been marketed towards existing collectors wanting to get up to speed with the new edition, rather than kids and interested passers by who want a relatively cheap way to see what they think of the game. Having something you can get for fifty quid, which you can play out of the box is likely much more appealing. At least around here, relatively few people I know actually bought the starter set in order to start, it was more something that appealed to the experienced collectors looking for the deal. Storm Strike and Tempest of souls on the other hand, have seen a lot more use.

I get the feeling that most of the people buying the new 40K set, are getting it because they absolutely want to have the new models or new rules as soon as possible, that isn't what you'd expect from people thinking of trying out 40K for the first time, but rather the old guard of die hard fans, who have been conditioned to want massive boxes and shiny limited edition rulebooks.

[Popisdead]

On 7/14/2020 at 11:38 PM, zilberfrid said:

I just want the points for Cities. With sigmarines as they stand, Cities wizards no longer need apply.

There's nothing like much needed batallions and new cities in the GHB, and no path to glory.

Allowing cities as a keyword in Anvil is the first time since release Cities got any mention rules-wise, (though you can't make good heroes on horse or any in vehicles).

Giving them proper points (which means something like 50 points reduction for flying sorceress and battlemage) for the new world is a last option GW has in showing me they at least remember its existence.

heh... wrong thread dude.