Future Of AoS

[Ejecutor]

19 hours ago, ScionOfOssia said:

It’s highly unlikely that they would do anything like that soon unless TOW sells particularly well- They’re taking a gamble that enough people will jump from the video game sphere to the wargaming sphere that they can make a suitable ROI and old players who got burned by the End Times will not only return, but buy more models.
 

It’s entirely possible that the anticipated playerbase will end up much smaller than expected and continued support would be considered unprofitable, resulting in it getting dropped again. 

I don't know WHFB players from other countries, but in here most of them already have their armies finished or almost, so I wouldn't count them as buyers for the launching boxes. Putting them aside, getting Total War players into wargamming would depend heavily on the launching boxes price.

It is true that the remaining WHFB kits are way cheaper (some times even half or less) than their AoS counterparts, but would GW launch their TOW boxes (rumored to have 80+ minis) cheap enough to attract "outsiders"? I doubt it, specially considering the prices policy where they go up and up and the only next step they know is sky rocket into the next price increase. Put that together with the fact that some minis are pretty ugly to nowdays miniatures standard... I see it hard, but hey, maybe GW surprise us and the launching boxes are worth +-100 € (and totally putting Forge Wolrd minis out of the equation here).

Many YT channels here are calling TOW already a death born game, and seeing everything so far... is hard to refuse, imho.

[Snarff]

1 hour ago, Ejecutor said:

I am surprised about that Dominion sentence. We saw lot of stores throwing its price to levels that we've never seen in AoS history in terms of big boxes (even lower than some Start Collectings), and that is a hint about it not selling so well.

Maybe it was too overproduced? I don't know, but that sentence is really surprising.

I don't think low prices are necessarily indication of a bad launch/product. Dominion sold BIG when it was released. They just made enough of a box for once, a lot more consumer friendly than the scalping that is rampant in 40k.

[CommissarRotke]

3 hours ago, Ejecutor said:

Maybe it was too overproduced? I don't know, but that sentence is really surprising.

Probably overproduced and also GW runs at an absurd ~40% profit margin, so they could cut prices and still make money handily.

 

12 hours ago, KriticalKhan said:

Of course, none of this is to say that GW writes Chaos in an interesting manner. One can only see "That cool, nuanced villain/xeno/underutilized faction character was actually only the setup for CHAOS! Again! Never saw that coming, eh?" before you get bored. Someone should teach them that not using something all the time actually gives it more of an impact. Shocking, I know.

this is mostly my point yeah. Again, Chaos is Like This because it is a wargame that needs to sell products, so it's "live to fight another day!" not "fight to secure life!" etc.

I complain because GW clearly wants both the narrative and wargame cake, and they have the bones of very good narratives if they would stop selling for 5 minutes to tell a better story. Stopping the "surprise" Chaos ****** is a good first step.

Edited September 22, 2023 by CommissarRotke

[Bosskelot]

On 9/22/2023 at 12:40 PM, Ejecutor said:

I am surprised about that Dominion sentence. We saw lot of stores throwing its price to levels that we've never seen in AoS history in terms of big boxes (even lower than some Start Collectings), and that is a hint about it not selling so well.

Maybe it was too overproduced? I don't know, but that sentence is really surprising.

It all comes down to how GW decides to judge or spin numbers.

In terms of sheer volume sold Dominion probably was the "best" launch to date. 

But they absolutely 100% overproduced it to an absurd degree. I remember the release time and talking to some LGS owners around me, and they were telling me that GW reps were really trying to push absurd numbers of the box onto them, solely because Indomitus had done so well and Paul Marketing at GW thought that ALL boxes would sell that well. This lead to them trying to get the biggest LGS to take on 200 boxes of the new BB. For comparisons sake, they sold 125 boxes of Indomitus. BB is not as big as 40k.

Dominion was much the same, trying to get them to order 150-200 boxes of it and doing the usual "oh but remember Indomitus? And Age of Sigmar has been growing a lot in recent years..." spiel, completely ignoring actual reality in general but also locally; the owner had to say to them repeatedly that AOS just wasn't anywhere near the popularity of 40k locally and that he'd had 15 boxes of Soul Wars back in 2018 that he still had stock of 3 years later.

It's a very common PR spin within the corporate world, especially within investor reports, to game the numbers to make the performance of something look a lot better than it actually is. Video game publishers love to bandy around numbers of accounts, or hours played over a specific time, or any other number of tricks, to make the performance of a product look really impressive. So you can have a game that only hit half of its expected revenue/player count/sales in a specific time, but if its a big enough game that's still enough players that you can pull out "[x] amount of hours played over release week" and it will be a big impressive number to hopefully fool investors and journalists.

And it being overproduced and available for so long is also not some pro-consumer thing either. Every Dominion box that goes unsold and rots away on a shelf or has to get sent back to GW warehouses to be destroyed is potentially half a dozen other products that aren't being produced. Since 2020 we've had consistent issues with stock and availability of GW products, which is made worse when they do a big box game release that eats up all other production and exacerbates those issues even further. Look I love that you can buy multiple boxes of Dominion to get a bunch of extra Yndrasta's, good for you. But there are countries out there where people have not been able to buy Land Raiders, Fire Prisms or Battle Cows for OVER A YEAR. That's not an exaggeration either.

[Clan's Cynic]

They were handing out boxes for free at Adepticon, so while I don't doubt Dominion sold well and turned them a solid profit, it's probably fair to say they overproduced it. 

I think on one hand, they were worried about getting another Indomitus situation on their hands - and judging by the very, very cynical atmosphere that pervaded the lead-up to Dominion that wasn't unwarranted. On the other hand, they were probably banking on AoS having the utterly bewildering sales hype of literally anything 40k. I think 3.0 launching at a time when a lot of places were months out of lockdowns and many people were playing 40k 9th for the first time in any real number wouldn't have helped.

Ah well, at least everybody who wanted a box got one. Silver linings. 

You can still get Leviathan boxes without too much grief, albeit not with the kinds of discounts Dominion was seeing as this point. It'll be interesting to see if the 4.0 launch box ends up being more conservative with production numbers. 

Frankly I'd rather they just went back to doing what Horus Heresy is and having the 'big launch box' be available all edition, but I recognise they want to have their cake and to eat it - get the FOMO sales from the launch set and still the three tiered starter sets (at much worse value). I for one miss the days of Battle for Macragge, Battle for Skull Pass, Dark Imperium and Soul Wars though. 

Edited September 24, 2023 by Clan's Cynic

[Beliman]

12 minutes ago, Clan's Cynic said:

Frankly I'd rather they just went back to doing what Horus Heresy is and having the 'big launch box' be available all edition,

100% agree. 

[pnkdth]

On 9/22/2023 at 1:52 PM, Ejecutor said:

I don't know WHFB players from other countries, but in here most of them already have their armies finished or almost, so I wouldn't count them as buyers for the launching boxes. Putting them aside, getting Total War players into wargamming would depend heavily on the launching boxes price.

It is true that the remaining WHFB kits are way cheaper (some times even half or less) than their AoS counterparts, but would GW launch their TOW boxes (rumored to have 80+ minis) cheap enough to attract "outsiders"? I doubt it, specially considering the prices policy where they go up and up and the only next step they know is sky rocket into the next price increase. Put that together with the fact that some minis are pretty ugly to nowdays miniatures standard... I see it hard, but hey, maybe GW surprise us and the launching boxes are worth +-100 € (and totally putting Forge Wolrd minis out of the equation here).

Many YT channels here are calling TOW already a death born game, and seeing everything so far... is hard to refuse, imho.

That will entirely depend on the models. Do we know if they are rehashed minis or updated sculpts?

Edited September 24, 2023 by pnkdth

[Clan's Cynic]

On 9/22/2023 at 12:52 PM, Ejecutor said:

Many YT channels here are calling TOW already a death born game, and seeing everything so far... is hard to refuse, imho.

I have a sneaking suspicion those same Youtubers will be hollering about how amazing TOW is and that it's the best edition of WHFB ever (even if they never played it before) and the new models are so great around about the time GW sends out their free boxset. 

Many of the same Youtubers had been saying Horus Heresy was a dead game if it didn't move to the 8th/9th edition ruleset promptly couldn't stop raving about how great 2nd edition was... despite retaining 95% of 7th's DNA.

Frankly I hold the opinions of most Youtubers on any subject in about the same regard as the town drunk - with a few exceptions. 

23 minutes ago, pnkdth said:

That will entirely depend on the models. Do we know if they are rehashed minis or updated sculpts?

Iirc rumour mongers said it'll be a mix of new and old.

Edited September 24, 2023 by Clan's Cynic

[Ejecutor]

20 minutes ago, pnkdth said:

That will entirely depend on the models. Do we know if they are rehashed minis or updated sculpts?

Rumours says 1 fresh model in a box of around 80 minis. So mainly old ones if that's accurate.

[Gitzdee]

I agree with Dominion being overproduced. I think it was the financial report that stated Dominion (or AoS) sold well, i have no reason to doubt that. Dont know the exact wording, its been a while.

Another question. Do we think incarnates or coming back? I think this is an idea that didnt turn out as expected and has been scrapped. I liked the idea, but imo it could have been more locked into factions like endless spells. Also makes them easier to balance.

[The Lost Sigmarite]

Jumping on that question : I really don't know but I hope we see more incarnates. Neutral monsters any army can bind and bring is a cool concept. I'd be nice to see more (provided they're more balanced than the Krondspine).

I didn't say it first time, but it'll be cool to see more AoS terrain (even if GW terrain is expensive). I love me a great looking tabletop, and even if I'm not the target audience for that, it'll be nice for clubs and stores and the lucky people with a hobby room. Maybe bring back the discontinued terrain from 1st and 2nd ed like the realmgates, stormvault statues, etc.

Edited September 25, 2023 by The Lost Sigmarite

[ScionOfOssia]

Honestly, I think the whole Incarnate idea has some legs, but there should be consequences for letting them run wild beyond them occasionally attacking your own units. 

[EntMan]

20 minutes ago, ScionOfOssia said:

I think the whole Incarnate idea has some legs

But unfortunately the Incarnate itself didn't...

I think it would have been better if it looked more like an actual beast, rather than something from Death.

Edited September 25, 2023 by EntMan

[ScionOfOssia]

Part of the issue is GW gave it a genuinely garish color scheme and picked probably the worst possible angle to show it off from. It looks nicer with a red-orange to yellow-orange color scheme and bones that are done using the OBR battletome’s method (Wraithbone->Skeleton Horde->Bone drybrush) than the grayish color it uses in its artwork. 

[CommissarRotke]

On 9/24/2023 at 8:43 AM, Clan's Cynic said:

They were handing out boxes for free at Adepticon, so while I don't doubt Dominion sold well and turned them a solid profit, it's probably fair to say they overproduced it. 

hearing these things always pisses me off... so you could absolutely lower prices instead of consistently raise them, and still make as much money... because you're giving away unsold kits anyway!!!

[EntMan]

7 minutes ago, CommissarRotke said:

hearing these things always pisses me off... so you could absolutely lower prices instead of consistently raise them, and still make as much money... because you're giving away unsold kits anyway!!!

Weirdly, I guess somehow in GW business land giving it away for free at events doesn't devalue it as a luxury item as much as selling it at a discount would.

[DoctorPerils]

Going back to the initial question, something I thing would be a fun experiment for new editions or end of edition campaigns would be to see some factions change grand alliance, like how the dark elves and high elves joined together in the end times, or it looked like the Daughters of Khaine were turning against the forces of Order for a second.

While it may partially invalidate some people's armies (if they rely on niche ally rules which seem to change every edition) I think the narrative possibilities are intriguing, and it also might push people to try out armies they wouldn't have in their original Grand Alliance (ie, more potential money for GW )

imagine for a second that Morathi did actually move to the Chaos Grand Alliance with the return of Malerion; or the Idoneth moving to Grand Alliance Death in order to improve their soul tithe (or whatever its called). Perhaps Katakros gets a particularly interesting job offer from Grungni and they form the G&K Megacorp Grand Alliance?

[Noserenda]

Its been a while but they werent free at Adepticon but bundled in a swag bag affair as i recall? 

I think the Incarnates would have done better if you could just buy them alone rather than coming with a huge terrain bundle you might not want, certainly our group sounded enthusiastic about them as we had a gaming weekend when it was announced, but if anyone ever bought one they never saw the table.

Though monsters, or anything, available to every faction do have to be carefully written because they can combo with jusssst so much, i think they definitely erred on the side of caution with this one too, which probably didn't help.

[wargames101]

My hope is that Dominion's lack of sell-through led them to reconsider including Stormcast in the 4.0 box. The slower than expected sales were immediately obvious, even if they were still solid in absolute terms, so it is possible even if unlikely.

We're coming up on the 10th anniversary of the release of Stormcast and they're obviously not filling the Marine-equivalent role that GW intended for them. So far as I can tell, none of the novels have been breakout hits. I'd be shocked if most GW fans could explain the difference between Hallowed Knights, Celestial Vindicators, Anvils of the Heldenhammer, or Knights Excelsior either aesthetically or lore-wise.

I think the models were almost all great designs, but Dominion was a meh-off between redesigns of then five-year-old models and emaciated ork variants entirely new to the setting. That's why you can get the launch box for less than the cost of a Vanguard box six months before the new edition. Fingers crossed that we get better for fourth edition!

[Marcvs]

9 hours ago, wargames101 said:

So far as I can tell, none of the novels have been breakout hits. I'd be shocked if most GW fans could explain the difference between Hallowed Knights, Celestial Vindicators, Anvils of the Heldenhammer, or Knights Excelsior either aesthetically or lore-wise.

All true, but also applicable to all other factions imho. Which AoS novel would you pick as a "breakout hit"? Do fans know the difference between Illiatha and Alumnia? Or Tempest Eye and Greywater Fastness?

Personally I would always bet on Stormcast in the launch and starter boxes for 4th and would be surprised even by a change in 5th, if anything because of the inertia of the big-GW-machine and sunken costs.

[Beliman]

11 minutes ago, Marcvs said:

All true, but also applicable to all other factions imho. Which AoS novel would you pick as a "breakout hit"? Do fans know the difference between Illiatha and Alumnia? Or Tempest Eye and Greywater Fastness?

That's exactly  what @wargames101 is saying. SCE are not marines.

[Gitzdee]

I dont think marines and SCE are designed to follow the same design pattern. Yes they are both poster boys and starter armies. But that is where it ends imho. The whole 40k setting revolves around marines. The mortal realms dont revolve around SCE.

I think they will be in every edition starter box for a while and will get the primaris treatment. But the lore isnt the same, they arent as important.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Gitzdee

[Beliman]

4 minutes ago, Gitzdee said:

I think they will be in every edition starter box for a while and will get the primaris treatment. But the lore isnt the same, they arent as important.

To be honest, I think they are exactly the same product for a diferent IP.
Of course their lore is diferent, but that doesn't invalidate the first point.

[Gitzdee]

54 minutes ago, Beliman said:

To be honest, I think they are exactly the same product for a diferent IP.
Of course their lore is diferent, but that doesn't invalidate the first point.

From the 34 armies of 40k. 12 are marines. That not counting the armies including chaos marines. That easily half the game. Not even close to SCE.

[Beliman]

10 minutes ago, Gitzdee said:

From the 34 armies of 40k. 12 are marines. That not counting the armies including chaos marines. That easily half the game. Not even close to SCE.

I know.

That's why some people are saying (me included) that SCE failed in trying to be like Marines, even if the company behind SCE is pushing that model line in the same direction.

Let's hope that SCE never succeed because, as you said, nobody wants 12 SCE armies for AoS.