Peter (Age of Miniatures) Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 A few days ago I got an email from a person who wanted to talk to me about AoS and GW. The reason? He was doing an analysis of GW for his investment analysis company. At first, I thought it was a joke or some kind of spam/phishing stunt. Turns out I was wrong and I ended up having an hour-long chat about GW, AoS, purchasing habits of Warhammer gamers, the future of AoSe, the twists and turns of GW etc. I am writing this because I found it immensely fascinating that a company thought my knowledge as a gamer and hobbyist was that valuable for them, in terms of determining the future success of GW. I thought others might find this interesting as well. What they wanted to know: For several years, the profits of Games Workshop was quite flat. After the launch of AoS (and various other changes in the company and their production), they are now increasing profits each year. GW had a similar growth curve back in the days (around the launch of the LotR game as far as I understood the investment-guy), but that growth vanished quickly again and GW again turned weak profits. So the question the investment-guy was looking to answer: is the current growth of GW profits sustainable? Is current GW growth based on a lot of initial investment into games, that will start to fall off once people have bought the number of minis they need? In essence - what is "new-GW's" profit baseline? Why they contacted me and who else are they contacting: The investment-guy did not really know anything about Warhammer, GW or Age of Sigmar. I produce quite a lot of content aimed at completely new players so at the beginning of his research into the games he used my page a lot. He was very keen to pick my brain about all things GW and AoS. He/they are in the process of reaching out to all sorts of people, to get the most perspectives into their analysis. This means owners of stores selling warhammer, new players in the different games, older players, YouTubers and so on (if you get contacted and are on the fence talking to them, I can say that he was very friendly and we had a nice chat). What we talked about: My background What I like most about the hobby and the game What other games I play (DnD, 40k, other mini games etc.) How AoS has evolved since launch and how it differs from Fantasy Are more new people (and new types of people) entering the game as opposed to earlier (early AoS and fantasy) What was my initial investment into Age of Sigmar (did I buy a lot of books, did I buy a new army or reuse old armies etc.) My AoS purchasing habits the last few years, how it might be in the future and how it was back in the Oldhammer days How many people just collect and paint and rarely play the game How much time it takes for me to paint an army If the change so independent retailers could sell Warhammer online affected me in any way How many of the books and AoS supplements I see as "mandatory" or "necessary purchases" My thoughts on why I think "new-GW" and Age of Sigmar is a success The biggest problem with GW and AoS right now What I am most excited about for the future of the game What do you think? After chatting to investment-guy I was interested to hear other peoples opinions. I chatted with some friends regarding the topics and while we agreed on quite a lot, we also had some differing opinions. I guess the essence of the question is: how do you see the future of GW and Age of Sigmar? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overread Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 GW themselves have spoken of this in their biannual financial reports that they publicly publish (I forget where but googling might give you the link). Their own impression is that growth is not sustainable at its current (or at least at their peak) performance and that any continuation of their current growth rate is a boon. Basically when they adjusted AoS and how they approached the release of models and rules coupled to the return of many very popular specialist games and launched their massive marketing online and in person with pushing their schools systems and their tournament attending etc.... All of that was a huge investment for GW that paid off with massive sales. A big portion from many returning customers that had bled away from the company of the years. So part of their recent growth wasn't just new customers it was a return of many older ones. I think GW realised that they were having a huge profit boon from that market, but that at the same time they've got to invest into the future and grow new generations of gamers. From an investment perspective GW are the biggest in their market and have a very solid position. I think that they won't be wowing the stockmarket much if again in a big way like they did recently; but I'd say that they are likely a safe steady investment opportunity. Heck they paid something like £9 million for a new factory on site in Nottingham (I can't recall if its online yet but I don't think it is). I see growth in the future, GW is expanding armies in AoS; expanding the number of specialist games; expanding their licence reach (which generates return without very much cost ofr GW at all); plus they are marketing heavily and also doing a lot of outreach to grow their market. An important thing because in many regions (certainly in the UK) GW is the gateway product into the miniature hobby in general. That isn't to say that there are not other avenues, just that GW is by far and away (certainly in the UK) the biggest. Another few key thoughts are that GW has funded growth with profits not loans/investors, which means economic downturn doesn't hurt them as much since they don't have debts to pay off. As for the future of GW and AoS I see positive growth over the next few years, likely reaching a capping point. I think that getting AoS fully onto 2.0 and starting to release more models than removing them for all armies will be some big turning points away from the negative connections that were present at the start of AoS. Also the more time spent away from Old World the more that new gamers are being introduced positively to AoS rather than with the negative connection to the loss of the Old World content. New models, updating old lines, adding new armies. I see a lot of investment but also lots of uptake for new forces and for new approaches. I think that with GW trying to address internal balance and army support for all armies at once is also going to help. In the past many armies could go years without any update which would mean those players would have a higher chance of drifting away. Now with GW addressing rules and points more regularly and also trying new ways to release models and drip feeding them out not just in one big go; there is far more reason for more people to remain interested and trickle in those extra sales. There are still some oddities and pitfalls; the biggest apparent two to my eye are: 1) GW appears to have a lot of internal fragmentation within its departments. I think this is a legacy from the older management days when a lot of pressure was placed on GW to reduce leaks, whilst at the same time they were not active in advertising nor forecasting releases. I think that led to more internal pressure from staff keen to leak out info to gamers. We've seen that well dry up almost instantly now that GW is doing its own marketing. However I think that there's still internal division of departments and perhaps some lack of communication at best and some rivalries at worst. You can see this with some odd choices that can appear such as the recent removal of dwarf artillery models as part of the Cities of Sigmar update, however those dwarf models were specifically given mercenary rules within the 2019 Generals Handbook. My hope is that this will lessen over time 2) Forgeworld - once the boutique wing of GW is now floundering a bit in terms of what their focus is. At least that's the impression one gets looking in from the outside as you see them forming and then disbanding an "AoS team". It's complicated I think because they've also had a huge uptake from the Specialist Games selling so well and I think GW also wants to bring FW a bit more into the main running of things. Yet at the same time there also seems to be a bit of a push against FW. It's odd and I think there's both political and financial aspects playing a big part here in creating a confusing and unsure forecast. Again I hope and expect it to settle down eventually. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackStreicher Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 29 minutes ago, Peter (Age of Miniatures) said: how do you see the future of GW and Age of Sigmar? I think it can be great thougg they‘re trying to get too extreme at times (Ossiarch Bonereapers which I expect to flop compared to other releases). Overall the game is nice, the balance is beginning to suffer dramatically (ever since DoK) which has put off too many players already (I am more or less acting like a recruiter in my entire 60km radius area) also I and about 20% of my recruitees stopped buying several AoS books due to the content being lacking (half-thought through allegiances and the likes), though this issue is also relatable to 40K. slso the very Strange A-rhythmic Release schedule stopped me from buying new releases The constant powerspiral (FeC, Slaanesh & Orruks as the latest offenders and bad warscrolls (in Cities of Sigmar) has also stopped the hype and buying of several kits that I would have otherwise bought (Drakespawn Knights, Corsairs and pretty much half of a 2k points Orruk Army). (Yep overpowering is the hobby‘s Death concerning friendly games since no one is having fun). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wargames101 Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 I work in venture capital, and while it's different than later stage equity analysis, but I think there's a bull case that GW's growth could continue for years to come. I think to believe this case you have to look past the exiting fanbase, the updates to battletomes, etc. and focus on the ways GW is making investments in growth: + GW is collapsing barriers to entry: The development of Kill Team/War Cry are both evidence that the company is aware of two major impediments to starting the hobby — time and money. They've brought the buy-in for the game down from ~$500+ and 3-4 hours to ~$50 and 30-60 minutes. Shadespire/BSF are clearly designed to entice board game and Magic audiences. What once was a dedicated hobby for hardcore grognards is now an approachable hobby experiment for anyone who is creatively inclined and interested in sci-fi and fantasy. + GW is investing heavily in new player development: The smaller formats make the game more inviting, but GW also seems to be investing in school programs, bringing in new customers at the newsstand via Conquest, trade sales teams selling to craft stores and other non-LGS retail. It's unknown if these bets will pan out, but they're smart and the company seems to be rolling them out smoothly. + Reducing stigma via IP: The continued investment in books allows them to get a sense for which kinds of characters and narratives resonate to help and shape the core product offering. More importantly, it creates opportunities for outreach to the broader world of fandom, be it with Marvel comics or the Eisenhorn TV series for HBO. Even a middling success at HBO could draw tens of thousands of new hobbyists into the game pretty easily. Right now wargaming has an incredibly geeky odor, but if Eisenhorn becomes the new Game of Thrones, a lot of the stigma would fall away immediately. + Expansion via Licensing: Wade recently mentioned on Voxcast how new employees often cite their first exposure to Warhammer as coming from one of the many video games bearing the GW license (vs. exposure to WhiteDwarf or HeroQuest for the prior generations). Not only is licensing incredibly helpful in generating contribution margin, it provides exceptional visibility to non-fans. + Addressing the Arts & Craft Market: I think Everchosen and Golden Demon are seen as pretty niche parts of the hobby to many players, but it is a draw for a lot of potential customers who prefer the arts. The store level competition for Everchosen suggest how the creative side could be more amenable to events in the way tournaments serve the gamers. I think it's an especially potent wedge to help bring more women into the hobby. If enough of these investments click, I don't think it's crazy to believe that GW could double in size over the next five or so years. One way to think about — stop comparing GW to other minis games. Stop comparing them to other games period. Start thinking about them as a crafts business. Scrapbooking is a ~$3B industry, and GW scratches a similar itch for a very different demographic. Viewed through that lens, it's not crazy to imagine that GW could get to a £500M revenue run rate. Even if the new audiences don't materialize, I'd still expect healthy growth. GW's limited time boxes seem to show they've learned about the value of "whales" and "dark patterns" from their online compatriots. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overread Posted October 13, 2019 Share Posted October 13, 2019 One interesting line of thought is that when GW established itself "craft" hobbies were decently popular. You had Lego, Meccanno, Hornby, Airfix, Zoids, etc... - all of which had a really good time in the roughly same period. So GW grew up alongside many of them, however as time has passed many of those have fallen to the side and digital games have taken over in a big way. Hornby I think has survived with a niche population but an aged one where they aren't seeing the same number of younger people taking up the hobby. Airfix actually died though another one of the model firms bought them out and the models are still around, but I don't get the impression that they are anywhere near as healthy as they once were Meccanno is pretty much dead in the water far as I can tell from kids Lego has survived, partly by going the path of movie-tie-ins and also a very big older population of fans. Far as I can see GW is the only one REALLY pushing younger generations. To my mind, at the very least, this gives GW some suitability that many of the others don't have, which is that GW is working on building their next generation of adult gamers. I did a casual poll over on Dakka a while back and the results were that a huge percentage of gamers got into the hobby in the 8-15 age bracket; whilst beyond that the number who got into it at older generations fell off dramatically. Now granted its an internet poll and the net doesn't reflect all of reality, but I'd wager its a similar thing in many other fields. Hobbies people start when they are young they are far more likely to retain (off and on or all the time) into adulthood. So if GW can secure a fresh generation then its good for their future. They might even - in some countries, steal the position of "the physical creative toy" of the market. A side benefit of games going mainstream is that, in my view, many "geeky" things that once were very niche, are now far more openly accepted. Just look at comic book films and how they've exploded into one of the primary types of film from Hollywood and they don't appear to be easing off. With more general population acceptance of geeky things yes there's more potential to get more people into a geeky game. I've also casually noted that things like Larping and DnD and Magic are far more popular than ever. So on that line of thinking GW could continue to grow. Esp since they are still the whale in their market. Privateer Press was getting close but they've hit some rough waters and I really hope they pull their act back together. Meanwhile whilst Kickstarter has started a lot of new firms up and of those that make it to retail and survive some might start to make localised growth of their own gamer networks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inquisitorsz Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 (edited) Having been around GW on and off for a couple decades now it's clear they're making some great progress. The biggest turning points have been moving away from the "we don't do market research" position. It's abundantly clear these days that GW isn't relying on their past. They aren't sitting on their laurels. They got huge back in the 90s because there really wasn't much in the way of competition. Even about 6 or 8 years ago I remember reading a financial report which included what GW thought were it's market competition.... It was incredibly short sighted. They only looked at direct completion in their specific market/industry. The bigger picture is that as people, we all have limited finances, resources and time to spend on hobbies and luxury items. So you're not just competing with X-wing or Warmahordes. You're also competing with video games, TV shows, board games, CCGs, LCGs, reading, painting, glass blowing etc.... You're competing with almost every other hobby. Of course, there might not be a lot of overlap between warhammer players and glass blowers. That's an extreme example. But there's certainly significant overlap with pretty much anything that can be considered "gaming". Be that digital, or tabletop or card or boardgame. While maybe not many video gamers partake in the warhammer hobby, I feel like quite lot of warhammer hobbyists partake in a lot of other hobbies. And I don't think it takes much for a tabletop gamer to go check out another game for a while, especially when they're burnt out painting the 150th clanrat. The recent Community Surveys have been excellent and I'd like to see more of that... even on a smaller individual level. I felt the last survey didn't provide enough opportunity to give open feedback... not every section had an open comment option. About a decade ago, GW jumped into video games a bit. They had some smash hits, they had some utter failures. I think sometimes they were a bit too loose with their IP, but overall it's been a big step forward. In recent years, it has perplexed me that a lot of fantasy games were (and still are) set in the old world. I don't understand why GW is still pushing a discontinued product in the digital world. Why not set Warhammer Total War in the AOS realms? Realistically apart from a different map, it would make little difference to the overall gameplay. These days, GW is far more in tune with the market. They can see that people are becoming more and more time poor. I think it's been pretty clear in recent years that the rise of skirmish size wargames proves that people don't have time anymore to play 4 hour long battles that take 1 hour to set up. Now we can smash out 4+ games of warcry or underworlds or kill team in an evening. It makes running events easier. It makes getting new players interested easier. Having smaller teams/armies makes the barrier to entry easier/cheaper (for the most part). You can still have 10 hour long 10,000pt Apoc battles if you like... but I think the market for that is much smaller. I've been very impressed with GW that they've been able to innovate so much in recent years, and keep up with a weekly release schedule. To be honest, I'm surprised it's worked so well. I don't think it's sustainable. Monthly releases that only did 1 faction or something for 1 game meant people would wait 6 months for something new that related to their armies/game. There's a lot more variety now. On the other hand, flooding the market with 50 Primaris Lieutenants or the 15th "boxed game" like Aeronautica Imperials or the Speed Freaks box just seems unnecessary. I don't think anyone really asked for Aeronautica, and I don't think GW really needs to compete with X-wing (if that's what they were trying to do). What people have been asking for is a remake of Mordheim and BFG. Warcry kind of scratches that itch I guess? The breakneck speed of Kill Team releases (expansions) kind of put me off a bit. I hope the same doesn't happen with warcry. It makes sense for Underworlds because it's a different kind of game, but they still have to be careful to not drive players away. I think eventually GW will move to a fortnightly release schedule, but perhaps cover more things..... like spread the purchases out a bit, but have something for AOS and 40K each fortnight? In terms of the future. I think there's still LOTS of room for improvement. I think army books/codex/battletomes are a relic of ancient times. I think big rule books are the same. AoS has shown that you can release a basic rules PDF and get people on board. It's probably personal preference, but I really like concise rules, in a regularly updated document (preferably for free). The game should be good enough to sell the miniatures. Right now, it's still the other way round. The miniatures are excellent and people still buy them despite the games (at least the main ones, being somewhat average). They're continuing to make the barrier to entry smaller, which is excellent, but there's still constant little missteps that are really frustrating. For example.... Why not include the extra little tokens in the Beastgrave starter box? It's only a bit of extra cardboard.... they aren't really even that necessary, and yet cost an extra $20 or something as a separate item. Why force people to buy multiple underworlds warbands they'll never use just for a few neutral cards? Why not release those neutral cards as separate packs and keep only faction cards in warband boxes. Why do I have to buy access to the digital battletome if I already own the physical book, just to view things on the app (which already has it's own subscription cost)? Why do these army/rule books have so many errors....? A $70 book shouldn't be obsolete in a few weeks after release. Why lock new character models in expensive, extremely limited multi-faction boxes, and not release them solo for 6+months? Why have big multi-faction boxes at all.... the latest 40k one is $390AUD. They rely so heavily on people splitting boxes or selling half after market. GW doesn't get the benefit of those extra sales, surely it's better to simply package each half separately as a new "start collecting" box or something? There's lots they can be doing better.... and they're getting close to FFG level of "spreading yourself too thin". I think they're getting close to just throwing too much at the wall to see what sticks. It might be time soon to take a step back, see what's working, see what needs proper ongoing support, and focus on those product lines. They're increase in organised play support has been great too, although for some reason the communication and regularity/reliability of it has been flaky. TLDR: GW is in a good place right now. It will be very interesting to see what happens when their new factory is up and running. I hope they don't over-saturate the market and focus more on existing product line. People want continuity of product. They want safety and security for their expensive purchases. There's still a lot of room for GW to improve, so I think they'll continue to see good growth for the next 5 or so years, but I don't think their current strategy is sustainable long term. Edited October 14, 2019 by Inquisitorsz 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prochuvi Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 I hope people dont get mas or nothing as it is only my opinion. I am a economist(5 year career) so i know that i am speaking. The future of gw is pretty bad due to things outside of the hobby. The monster is the brexxit. Gw have done huge investment those last months\year to expand their factorys for the increase in production. So if they now they start to selling less product they gonna be in problems. But with the brexxit they must get the prices a 18% up(taxes) to have the same income. But with this increase they gonna sell less product and so the income gonna decrease and wont can sell the new extra product of the new factorys. And the worse is that gw know it and they have been triying find fixes for this: Get their production to china or polonia outside of the brexxit that failled Also i read the tried get the factorys to spain but also failled. Now lately with the marvel and bandai deals i have read some people speaking about gw triying selling the company to any big multinational company as bandai to try avoid the losses of the brexxit. Only my idea after read articles and so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter (Age of Miniatures) Posted October 14, 2019 Author Share Posted October 14, 2019 Glad I posted about this, some really great thoughts and insights here. I agree with you @prochuvi on the Brexit thing. I have no clue how it will affect the company on grand scale, but I know what it will (at least initially) do to the amount I spend on GW games. Right now I can get something that normally costs £100 for £80 via a good UK webshop. If I had to buy that some product from a local retailer in my country, I would have to pay somewhere between £100-115 for it. Due to import taxes, that discount on my big purchases is probably going way. That means an an increase of between 20-25%. Odds are good that it will significantly reduce the amount of purchases I make that are in the "maybe-I-need-this" category. So yeah, Brexit is the big monster under the bed right now... You are bringing up some good points @Inquisitorsz in the "why the heck are they still doing this?" category. It is some of the things new players starting the games struggle to understand and cope with. From an outside perspective, I guess some of the ways the do things make little sense. Some of my own worries for the future: Painting minis and building terrain is slowly getting more and more accepted and widespread. I guess the explosion of DnD into the mainstream has a big part in that. Playing wargames/skirmish games certainly has the potential of exploding in the same way, but is it really possible with the lack of diversity in GW gaming population? Can we change ourselves and our community to be more inclusive? The communication from GW is certainly a lot better than compared to just a few years ago. But some of their decisions boggles the mind and their communication when that happens is subpar. Maybe it is internal power struggles (as mentioned earlier), but without a more clear communication from GW we will probably never know why Dwarf artillery was a featured part of GHB19 and the next moment is discontinued (just an example). Those kinds of weird things happen all the time, and all we get are "look how awesome this battletome is" articles on the Warhammer Community Webpage. It rubs people the wrong way when no clear answer is in sight. What I am looking forward to in the future: It seems we are finally done with merging factions and bringing out battletomes needed for fixing the wholes. What will happen next? How is a release schedule for AoS going to in this new 2.0 stage? What new armies will we see? GW is improving each day. It is clear they have some internal conflicts, but it also seems there are just a bunch of great people who want to produce great things. I am just looking forward to seeing what that "next great thing" is going to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karragon Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 I'm fairly confident in GWs ability to generate at least consistent profits if not further growth (my disclaimer: I hold GW shares). I don't think Brexit is as much of an issue as some might think. The lion's share of GW sales come from UK/US/AUS/NZ/******, none of which will be affected by additional tariffs. There is also a fairly high likelihood of a fall in the value of the pound, possibly even enough to offset the tariffs, even if it isn't that high it will increase revenue from ALL non-UK sales. From a player rather than investor perspective you only have to look at the tournament scene too see how well AoS is doing. In the last year the tournament scene has exploded (here in the UK for definite), it's now almost possible to attend one every weekend (more if you've whipped quantum physics). That to me speaks of a very healthy and growing interest in the hobby. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Overread Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Also don't forget that GW has its factories and staff in the UK and they've still a healthy UK population of gamers. Even if the EU market contracts for a while after Brexit; GW still has fingers in the USA and other regions that are not part of that bracket. Also Brexit in itself is an unknown beast. It's likely that it will be a rough few years riding it out and then thing should settle down after. The hardest thing will be that the EU member states might want to "punish" the UK to discourage other countries pulling out; however there's a whole world outside of the EU to trade with. On the subject of IP and games I think there's two things to keep in mind: 1) GW clearly likes to retain control over their IP and what is created both lore and visually; I also like to think that they've more experience with this than some newer IP owners. As a result I think that they tend to end up with smaller game studios because the studio need the IP licence more than GW needs the studio. You then get some deals like with Relic and CA where its clear that the company and staff WANT to make the game specifically on the IP and are willing to put up with GW calling the shots on many design choices. This I think tends to leave out some bigger firms at times who want more creative control over their own project; but at the same time I think it helps ensure that GW's IP remains under control and not too heavily watered down. Also even if the video game is a flop it doesn't really hurt GW that much - they still get the licence fees and such. 2) I think the Old World games are a product of several elements a) Computer games take a long time to make. Even simplistic ones can take years (esp with small teams). So many of the contracts were likely agreed upon before AoS ended (it might even be that the arm of GW dealing with game licences wasn't even aware of AoS existing nor the nature of it). b) Like it or not Old World has more market than AoS; or at least had 5 years ago. So there's more to work with in game terms. I think that has steadily changed and I'd expect to see more AoS games start to appear in the near future. On the subject of "outdated"methods like books for rules and such I think many established fans miss the point of these products. The physical book is something that can be shown to an interested customer in a shop; that it contains lore, artwork, how to paint; painted photos and rules and stats I think is a fantastic thing. Sure the experienced gamer only wants the rules and points from the last part; but the whole rest is often what entices people into Warhammer games. Heck when talking to many the setting and lore and interaction with the game is often what brings them in and keeps them playing even when they admit that the rules could be better written and have scope for improvement when compared to many other games. I can't see them going away any time soon. Though I can see GW experimenting with things like they've done with AoS in putting stats and points online for free access along with the rules; I can see them perhaps one day giving access codes for their digital codex* if you buy the physical and suchlike. But as a product I can't see them going away. Heck ask yourself, if GW release a new army (like the Bonereapers) do you "just" want the book for the stats or is the background, stories, painting examples, artwork and such also something you want. In my experience putting it all together - optional an essential game stuff - encourages exposure to the lore. Otherwise it can be like Black Library - its there, you can buy it, but because its optional many people don't. Heck I was into GW for decades and never read a BL book Personally I think their biggest printing issue is using cards but only taking one order of them and running out of stock. I've heard some hints that they might be trying to get their own card printing machinery to do it in-house rather than ordering from overseas. If they could clean that whole area up that would be a great thing. *Interesting thing of note when it comes to Black Library at least - is that GW doesn't use any DRM software or tricks on their ebooks. The closest you get is if you buy through Amazon Kindle Store; otherwise if you buy from BL direct its just a file download. That's interesting in this modern age when many companies go mad for DRM stuff and in the video game world it took GOG making a big stand to push back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forrix Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 17 hours ago, wargames101 said: + Expansion via Licensing: Wade recently mentioned on Voxcast how new employees often cite their first exposure to Warhammer as coming from one of the many video games bearing the GW license (vs. exposure to WhiteDwarf or HeroQuest for the prior generations). Not only is licensing incredibly helpful in generating contribution margin, it provides exceptional visibility to non-fans. Dawn of War was my first exposure to GW. Several of the guys at my local club learned about GW via Total War: Warhammer. I'd say videogames are the primary means of recruiting new gamers nowadays for GW. Especially in areas that don't have a large scene yet. I'll also add that the paint guides and references to Warhammer TV in the newer battletomes are very nice and have been good at helping new players get into the hobby side of things. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laststand Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 14 hours ago, prochuvi said: I hope people dont get mas or nothing as it is only my opinion. I am a economist(5 year career) so i know that i am speaking. The future of gw is pretty bad due to things outside of the hobby. The monster is the brexxit. Gw have done huge investment those last months\year to expand their factorys for the increase in production. So if they now they start to selling less product they gonna be in problems. But with the brexxit they must get the prices a 18% up(taxes) to have the same income. But with this increase they gonna sell less product and so the income gonna decrease and wont can sell the new extra product of the new factorys. And the worse is that gw know it and they have been triying find fixes for this: Get their production to china or polonia outside of the brexxit that failled Also i read the tried get the factorys to spain but also failled. Now lately with the marvel and bandai deals i have read some people speaking about gw triying selling the company to any big multinational company as bandai to try avoid the losses of the brexxit. Only my idea after read articles and so I would imagine if the pound fell because of brexit and uncertainty in the economy foreign sales in dollars and euros would be worth a lot more once repatriated into pounds. Overall sales in the UK might slow due to reduced consumer spending but that foreign income would more than make up for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chord Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 I don't know much about Brexit being from the states but I do know the increase in price of the start collecting has made me hold back on purchasing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banshee1978 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 I actually dont see the price tag the issue but the amount of time you have to build and paint. Even with contrast if you want to play with or display miniatures in tabletop quality ,time is the limiting factor per customer. I could purchase hundreds of miniatures. But for what use? I would never get them done. I hate playing with grey stuff(never do) because if the game is more important than the look and feel of real achievement/art than i could really just play a computer game 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inquisitorsz Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 12 hours ago, Overread said: On the subject of "outdated"methods like books for rules and such I think many established fans miss the point of these products. The physical book is something that can be shown to an interested customer in a shop; that it contains lore, artwork, how to paint; painted photos and rules and stats I think is a fantastic thing. Sure the experienced gamer only wants the rules and points from the last part; but the whole rest is often what entices people into Warhammer games. Heck when talking to many the setting and lore and interaction with the game is often what brings them in and keeps them playing even when they admit that the rules could be better written and have scope for improvement when compared to many other games. Don't get me wrong. I like battletomes for the lore and hobby parts. I just think printed rules and especially points values are a relic of the past. Especially with AOS where you can even have 5 different versions of warscrolls (app, website, battletome, warscroll card, GHB update). There should be one central point for that stuff. Keep the cool artwork, lore, maps, painting guides etc in a book... that's fine. Put the functional stuff in one place that's easy to access and update. I agree that warscroll cards are great, though they need a better design imo... some of the double fold out ones are just annoying. Cards like that.... even in some easy to print format would be amazing. A lot of other games use unit cards for quick rules access.... Carrying around 3+ books to use your army has always been a pet hate of mine. Ultimately, GW's rule distribution methods still feel disjointed. Yes the core rules are free online, and yes you can download warscroll cards... but then you really use your army you need the battletome for the items, spells, allegiance abilities and battalions. Then you need another book for some more items, then another book for scenarios, then another book for endless spells etc... It's very confusing and daunting for new players. As for Brexit... it's hard to tell. I imagine the pound will fall a bit and prices will self adjust. Unfortunately GW has been terrible at adjusting regional pricing due to fluctuating currencies in the past, so I wouldn't expect a local pricing change if the pound did fall. We'll all just grey import more instead lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuneBrush Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 +++ MOD HAT +++ Although I appreciate it may be related, can we stay away from poking divisive subjects such as Brexit and GW's pricing policy please 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chikout Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 The biggest difference between now and the lotr time is diversification. When lotr was doing gangbusters, gw had just three product lines, black library before the Horus heresy and a very small number of licensed products. Now gw is actively supporting 12 different game systems and a much broader range of licensed products. I doubt gw can continue to grow as exponentially as it has been, but they are extremely unlikely to crash if any one of those systems fail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DINOSTAR Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 I bought shares that are up 50% so I've been a happy camper. I'm not really an expert (though I do hold a significant amount of shares in other companies or funds that I keep track of) and there's a few things that stand out. It occurs to me that most things trade at a P/E that's super high based on expected growth. That means, to me, that most stocks are valued based on perception rather than just a solid, undervalued companies, that will still only make you money when someone else values it higher than you do. Even if GW shows healthy profits, I just don't know if volume will be there to make a huge crazy run (like BYND) . 1. Since I am US based, every transaction incurs a 50$ trade fee so I only want to buy in large increments of 10,000$+. Most retail investors, including me, want to buy small amounts monthly to average their dollar cost 2. Such low volume being traded means all the jumps up (or down) happen at once...so people might be scared off by what would be perceived volatility 3. Relatively high share prices also price out some value investors or just GW fanboys who can pick up more models for the money Here's hoping that the GW keeps going strong! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.