Lets Chat: Legions of Nagash

[Xasz]

Coven Throne could be a sleeper of LoN.

A nice command ability and a troll spell, but you'd need a unit that actually benefits from rerolling 1s.

For the popular big blobs of skeletons (or on any unit with mediocre hit/wound rolls and flimsy save rolls for that matter... black knights, GG, doggies and so on), the vanilla Vampire Lords ability would be way better...

[Ashtyn]

14 minutes ago, Xasz said:

Coven Throne could be a sleeper of LoN.

A nice command ability and a troll spell, but you'd need a unit that actually benefits from rerolling 1s.

For the popular big blobs of skeletons (or on any unit with mediocre hit/wound rolls and flimsy save rolls for that matter... black knights, GG, doggies and so on), the vanilla Vampire Lords ability would be way better...

It could have uses on ethereal or morghasts.

morghasts with rerolls to hit and wound on 1s is big. 

 Spirit hosts and hexwraiths get a little boost from the reroll saves and extra chance for mortals.

complete rerolls to hit are better on hosts, but the coven gives them extra survivability

[Xasz]

3 minutes ago, Ashtyn said:

It could have uses on ethereal or morghasts.

morghasts with rerolls to hit and wound on 1s is big. 

 Spirit hosts and hexwraiths get a little boost from the reroll saves and extra chance for mortals.

complete rerolls to hit are better on hosts, but the coven gives them extra survivability

That is another thing entirely and in that case it might be decent.

Considering @Undeadly s list a couple pages earlier, the Coven Throne would be an awful pick.

[Ashtyn]

3 minutes ago, Xasz said:

That is another thing entirely and in that case it might be decent.

Considering @Undeadly s list a couple pages earlier, the Coven Throne would be an awful pick.

I'd run it with legion of night, to give deep striking harbringers rerolls.

Or in a sacrament list to troll any big ranged or melle death star with Arkhans extra range on beguile.

[Killax]

Tons of options, as mentioned before, I mean the only things that on just Warscroll bases became slightly worse are the Blood Knights, the fact that the Necromancer can't be mounted anymore and the fact that Wight Kings can't have their banner anymore. For sure some of the Morghasts changed too but I'd still say that if you want to use them, strongly consider Grand Host of Nagash and see how amazing they are there. Even Blood Knights in Legion of Blood is a serious unit.

All in all the whole army massively improved and so did all characters who recieved Deadly Invocation. Because while banners where nice and similar the whole need for those is removed. The Bravery debuff switch because of it again actually makes them better as they where before.

[Sception]

Other debuffs in scrolls: WKwBA armor is significantly worse (no protection for mortals, 1 damage attacks), necromancer cant defglect mortal wounds to other units.

[Xasz]

1 hour ago, Sception said:

Other debuffs in scrolls: WKwBA armor is significantly worse (no protection for mortals, 1 damage attacks), necromancer cant defglect mortal wounds to other units.

The second part might be a typo.

[smucreo]

Yeah, I mean they did forget an entire ability for the mortis engine in the spanish version so...

[Xasz]

Btw. Warscroll Builder seems to be up to date now.

[Malakithe]

Bah nvm

[Ashtyn]

8 minutes ago, Malakithe said:

Ooh idea! Go LoSac, VLoZD with mini Arkhan trait, Shroud of Darkness. VLoZD + Throne roll around together. Use CA, cast Beguile, VLoZD smashes into the scariest thing with absolutely no retaliation back lol

I thought of the exact same thing but with arkhan instead of the VLoZD. 

I know the VLoZD is all the rage atm however, I just can't help but imagine arkhan sitting pretty inside a unit of tzangor that can't touch him will he drains their souls and debuffs everything else around him.

There are a ton of options in this book and I admit that named chars are probably weak, but if we can make them work then we have so many versatile playstyles.

On a side note, I think that the changes to death have made banshees amazingly viable now. Against some armies you can get negative 5 to bravery meaning a banshee scream will be able to dish out 6 mortals wound on average rolls, terrorghiest and Mortis engines also benefit from this amazingly.

[Undeadly]

6 hours ago, Xasz said:

Coven Throne could be a sleeper of LoN.

A nice command ability and a troll spell, but you'd need a unit that actually benefits from rerolling 1s.

For the popular big blobs of skeletons (or on any unit with mediocre hit/wound rolls and flimsy save rolls for that matter... black knights, GG, doggies and so on), the vanilla Vampire Lords ability would be way better...

Um, no? GG and Black Knights have decent saves with their shields,and are 3+/3+ to hit and wound. Doggies can also get a decent save, and have a decent hit and wound on the charge. Heck, even Skeletons benefit, because it increases Survival AND offensive power. 

[Malakithe]

15 minutes ago, Ashtyn said:

I thought of the exact same thing but with arkhan instead of the VLoZD. 

I know the VLoZD is all the rage atm however, I just can't help but imagine arkhan sitting pretty inside a unit of tzangor that can't touch him will he drains their souls and debuffs everything else around him.

There are a ton of options in this book and I admit that named chars are probably weak, but if we can make them work then we have so many versatile playstyles.

On a side note, I think that the changes to death have made banshees amazingly viable now. Against some armies you can get negative 5 to bravery meaning a banshee scream will be able to dish out 6 mortals wound on average rolls, terrorghiest and Mortis engines also benefit from this amazingly.

Yeah Mortis Engine screams benefit. Bloodseeker scream as well. 

I wish there was a better option to cast Overwhelming Dread then just Arkhan and the necro

[Ashtyn]

7 minutes ago, Malakithe said:

Yeah Mortis Engine screams benefit. Bloodseeker scream as well. 

I wish there was a better option to cast Overwhelming Dread then just Arkhan and the necro

There's Nagash

 

[Malakithe]

13 minutes ago, Ashtyn said:

There's Nagash

 

Noooo lol although from what im hearing he is doing great right now

[swarmofseals]

8 hours ago, Evilslicker said:

Very informative, I'd like to hear your thoughts on big zombie bloobs as well.

60 Zombies take 35 unsaved damage in a single turn to bust on average. Since they have no saves and no defensive buffs, they take 42 pre-save damage on average from any damage type. That makes them a little worse than Dire Wolves against rend 2 and mortals, much worse than Dire Wolves but tied with buffed Grave Guard and better than skeletons against rend 1 and worse than everything except unbuffed skeletons against rend 0. 

Zombie offense is a bit better than Dire Wolves but still a lot worse than skeletons, and they lose the speed advantage of Dire Wolves. 

If the opponent fails to bust your Zombie unit, it will get wounds back more efficiently than Dire Wolves but it will be difficult to top off and much easier to bust the next round. The wounds that you return will each have a lower value than wounds restored to skeletons or wolves.

So yeah, I don't see a whole lot of reason to run Zombies. 

 

[scrollbuilderdude]

5 minutes ago, swarmofseals said:

So yeah, I don't see a whole lot of reason to run Zombies. 

I think there are some edge cases where you might want 10  models vs 5 for zoning out an objective behind your line. However, I own a lot of painted zombies that I'm struggling to find a use for in my lists.

Also, Warscroll Builder has been updated! Let me know if I missed anything.

[Malakithe]

8 minutes ago, swarmofseals said:

60 Zombies take 35 unsaved damage in a single turn to bust on average. Since they have no saves and no defensive buffs, they take 42 pre-save damage on average from any damage type. That makes them a little worse than Dire Wolves against rend 2 and mortals, much worse than Dire Wolves but tied with buffed Grave Guard and better than skeletons against rend 1 and worse than everything except unbuffed skeletons against rend 0. 

Zombie offense is a bit better than Dire Wolves but still a lot worse than skeletons, and they lose the speed advantage of Dire Wolves. 

If the opponent fails to bust your Zombie unit, it will get wounds back more efficiently than Dire Wolves but it will be difficult to top off and much easier to bust the next round. The wounds that you return will each have a lower value than wounds restored to skeletons or wolves.

So yeah, I don't see a whole lot of reason to run Zombies. 

 

Yeah I agree with this fully

2 minutes ago, scrollbuilderdude said:

I think there are some edge cases where you might want 10  models vs 5 for zoning out an objective behind your line. However, I own a lot of painted zombies that I'm struggling to find a use for in my lists.

Also, Warscroll Builder has been updated! Let me know if I missed anything.

Yay! Ill start checking to see if i notice anything.

[swarmofseals]

2 minutes ago, scrollbuilderdude said:

I think there are some edge cases where you might want 10  models vs 5 for zoning out an objective behind your line. However, I own a lot of painted zombies that I'm struggling to find a use for in my lists.

Also, Warscroll Builder has been updated! Let me know if I missed anything.

Certainly a reasonable point, although I'm not sure how big the difference in spacing is between Zombies and Dire Wolves. Zombies clearly have the numbers but Dire Wolf bases are much larger.

Thanks for updating Warscroll Builder so quickly!

[Xasz]

3 minutes ago, scrollbuilderdude said:

I think there are some edge cases where you might want 10  models vs 5 for zoning out an objective behind your line. However, I own a lot of painted zombies that I'm struggling to find a use for in my lists.

Also, Warscroll Builder has been updated! Let me know if I missed anything.

Arkhan should have access to the lore of vampires.

[scrollbuilderdude]

2 minutes ago, Xasz said:

Arkhan should have access to the lore of vampires.

Thanks, I'm not sure how I missed that. I'll get an update pushed out as soon as possible.

[5kaven5lave]

Yeah, noticed that too. 

What’s the best weapon for a VLoZD guys? I’m thinking taking the shield option as he’ll be in the firing line a lot. 

[AverageBoss]

2 minutes ago, 5kaven5lave said:

Yeah, noticed that too. 

What’s the best weapon for a VLoZD guys? I’m thinking taking the shield option as he’ll be in the firing line a lot. 

You should always take the shield and chalice no questions asked as they are freebies. Lance is generally considered better than sword.

[Malakithe]

2 minutes ago, 5kaven5lave said:

Yeah, noticed that too. 

What’s the best weapon for a VLoZD guys? I’m thinking taking the shield option as he’ll be in the firing line a lot. 

The VLoZD can take everything so give him lance+shield+chalice

[Undeadly]

9 hours ago, swarmofseals said:

NOTE: This post was written over the course of a couple days and is extremely long. I've spoilerized sections to avoid it taking up too much space on the page.

The more I dig into this book the more I feel that there are lots of worthwhile options to explore. That's wonderful, of course, but it comes at a cost: tradeoffs. With this book I've been more acutely aware of what I'm giving up when I make choices than in any other list building I've done. It seems to me that these are the most powerful things going on (in no particular order):

  Reveal hidden contents

 

• Hordes. Death excels at defensive efficiency and hordes give you the best opportunity to get maximum value out of our regen. There are four noteworthy bonuses that really boost hordes: The Bait in Legion of Night, Lord of Nagashizzar and Ossific Diadem in Grand Host, and Mastery of Death in Legion of Sacrament. Three out of the four explicitly only benefit Deathrattle, but hordes of Dire Wolves should also be considered for a bunch of reasons. 
• Tricky deployment. Gravesite deployment puts many opponents in a bind. Often they will want to go second in order to get a shot at an early double turn, but that also means failing to block forward deployed Gravesites and allowing you to get into position on turn 1. Legion of Night also offers some great deepstriking options. I'm less optimistic about Castellans of Crimson Keep as it's too easy for your opponent to block you from getting advantage from the alternate deployment. 
• Lords of Sacrament. Three or four extra spell casts for 70 points is an insane value, and the armor bonus is just gravy. I know a lot of people have argued that a Balewind is "mandatory" with this battalion but I'm not so sure why that would be the case. It's not like you can put Arkhan on the Balewind, so really you are getting one Deathmages spell plus Arcane Bolt at the extended range. Perhaps being able to consistently hit most any target with Overwhelming Dread on turn 1 is the difference between winning and losing against Skyfire Spam or Aetherstrike Force? Against many armies I don't see it making a big impact. I also don't see why it would be needed here but not in other Death lists.
• Defensive Artefacts and Command Traits. Aura of Dark Majesty, Shard of Night, Azyrbane Standard, Wristbands of Black Gold, Shroud of Darkness, and Balefire Lantern all provide good defense with the Shard of Night, Wristbands of Black Gold and Shroud of Darkness standing out as particularly valuable.
• Legion of Blood Blood Knights. I know this one is going to be controversial but I maintain that Legion BKs are the biggest outlier in the entire Grand Alliance in terms of offensive efficiency. Death has loads of options for good anvils, but this is the best hammer and it's not even remotely close. Other interesting options for hammers are buffed Grave Guard which are also extremely efficient but much more cumbersome to use and Morghasts which have definite advantages but are a lot less efficient (even with the Grand Host buff)

 

•  

Focusing in on any of these things will remove your ability to take advantage of others.

Another thing that I've been looking at as potentially very powerful are Mortis Engines. They haven't been getting a lot of press lately, but I've always felt that they were a little bit of a hidden gem in Death. Their once per game reliquary ability has the potential to be really powerful. Granted sometimes you will fluff the range roll and not hit much, but sometimes you will be able to nail the entire opposing army. The heal is also quite nice if you have mult-wound units to benefit from it. Behemoths and heroes are the best target, of course, but Morghasts are also pretty likely to benefit and you'll occasionally get a little bump to your 2-3 wound models. Mortis Engines seem particularly powerful when used together as they can support each-other very well. At 12 +d3 wounds they aren't really efficient but aren't horribly inefficient, but at 12+3d3 or even 4d3 wounds they start looking really nice. Of course all of this was true before and hasn't changed with this book. The problem with Mortis Engines is that their banshee scream is basically worthless against a substantial number of opponents. Against daemons, Seraphon and Death? Forget it. It'll also be weak against Stormcast. That does change a bit though with the new book. Now it's easy to get -1 to -2 bravery and quite possible to get -3 or even -4 bravery if you work at it. Now suddenly Stormcasts are vulnerable and even daemons/Seraphon/Death will be at a much greater risk. Other armies will be extremely vulnerable. That takes a unit that was extremely high variance before and makes it a lot more consistent. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some builds that take multiple Mortis Engines.

 

Before going any further, I'd like to take a look at a bunch of the most competitive lists right now. I won't pretend that this is even remotely exhaustive, but it should cover a lot of the top contenders:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Changehost: Lots of mortal wound output at ranged, but the only thing that is really scary to our hordes is the Gaunt Summoner. This guy is going to be a HUGE problem and will absolutely wreck blocks of skeletons. They also have an impressive amount of cheap chaff, but luckily grinding through chaff is something that Death is very good at.

Skyfires: I'm actually not terribly worried about Skyfires. They are excellent at taking out characters, but their damage output is just not that efficient against hordes. If they bring big blocks of Tzaangors things will get dicier though, as Tzaangors are exceptionally efficient damage dealers. Luckily their armor is weak though and overwhelming them with skeletons is a possibility. It's also noteworthy that Tzaangors are a unit where positioning matters a great deal. A huge amount of their damage output comes from their mutants and special weapon holders. This plays to their advantage in that they can concentrate damage better than most short ranged, large sized units can. But it also means they are weak to getting tarpitted by flankers. Units of Direwolves attacking them on a side that is heavily weighted towards shieldbearers can really slow them down.

Vanguard Wing: I'm not sure how much the new FAQ will hurt Vanguard wing overall but it will definitely hurt them against Death. We can keep our characters safe, and I don't know that a big block of Liberators can do enough damage to outpace our healing. 

Aetherstrike Force: This also got dinged by the FAQ, but again I have no idea how big of a deal it will be for them. I can see this being a tough matchup as they can be set up to be lower drops than we are likely to be, and their damage output at long range is high enough to delete horde units before we have a chance to heal them, especially on a double turn. 

Thunderquake Starhost: I really can't comment that well on this list as I'm not very familiar with it.

Kroaknado: I can imagine that this could be very problematic as Kroak on a balewind requires burst ranged damage to deal with. Our ranged options have improved some with this book. 

Fyreslayers: This is a weird one. On the one hand, we have enough bodies to zone them out of range of our heroes. On the other hand, they are so defensively efficient themselves and we will have a tough time killing the key support heroes. Their axes allow them to concentrate damage enough to potentially wreck our horde units, but if we can get on the objectives first it's possible that our healing can outlast them.

Nurgle: I'm also not very familiar with the new Nurgle book yet, but my impression is that Nurgle is now not that slow and remains very tough but mostly melee focused. In a matchup of grindy armies I think Death is favored so long as we can get on the objectives first. 

Kunnin' Rukk: I'm not sure what else Rukk players are taking to supplement their Arrowboys these days, but Arrowboys themselves are certainly scary. They can pile on a lot of damage. That said, their damage is rend 0 against our hordes which means we are at peak efficiency against them. They can delete a skelly block no problem on a double turn, but may not be able to otherwise particularly if we can nail them with a -1 to hit penalty. 

Sylvaneth: How scary these are depends a great deal on  their composition. Drycha is really scary as her squirmlings can absolutely wreck a block of skellies. The rest of their army isn't that threatening, so if they are taking an offensive list I think we are pretty happy. If they are taking a defensive list, however, we could be in for a very difficult game. They can basically just set up on the objectives, and Dryads match up pretty well against our hordes. We'd eventually win, but against a likely 3 or 4+ save, possibly rerolling 1's and at least -1 if not -2 to hit we will have a difficult time breaking through.

Order Artillery Battery: Who knows exactly what this will look like, but it could be a really nasty gunline based around the Lord Ordinator. 

Murderhost: I think we are reasonably well set up against this as their mortal wound output is less helpful against us than it is against most opponents and our hordes are well set up to chew through Bloodletters en masse. If we can find a way to take out the Bloodsecrator I can see this going well.

Kharadron Dropships: Again we have the bodies to zone them out pretty well. I imagine they will do a lot of damage with their alpha strike, but this list is also pretty squishy. I'm less scared of this than, say, Fyreslayers.

Mixed Order Phoenix: I don't know if many people are running this, but I can see it being very challenging to beat. I don't think we have anything aside from Nagash that can take out the Phoenixes when they are buffed up. That said, they will struggle to do enough damage to outpace our healing as long as we keep our heroes bubbled up. I think the best plan will be to ignore the behemoths as much as possible and win on points. I have no idea if that is realistic or not, however.

 

There are undoubtedly other lists out there that I'm not considering. If you know of something specific please post it!

Across all of these lists, I've picked up on three themes that scare me:

• Defensive lists that can get on objectives before we can
• Ranged damage lists that can burn down an entire horde block in one turn with reasonable consistency, particularly without a double turn
• Force multipliers that we can't reach

The first item on the list is a bit of a conundrum. Maybe it won't be a big deal in practice. The upside against these types of armies is that we should be able to outlast them. The downside is that it's hard for us to shift them off the objectives. The two units that I see as being good enough to do this are Legion Blood Knights and buffed Grave Guard. Grave Guard are kinda a liability against other army types but should really shine here.

The second two items are scary for the same reason. I think a lot of games will come down to whether or not the opponent can burn through our horde blocks before we can heal them. If we can hold the first three turns I think we should probably win, but if they can push us off before then we are in trouble. If our healing gets a chance to kick in I think our hordes will hold out, but if it doesn't then we have a problem. A lot of these armies are very likely to be lower drops than us and can dictate the initial turn order. I've seen a lot of consternation in this thread about the early double turn and for good reason. Without the double turn they maybe pick off one horde block per turn, but we get a chance to weaken them enough so that maybe that capability falls out by turn two or three. With the double turn they almost certainly bust one horde and maybe bust two. At that point we likely lose. 

So that brings us to an important question: how tough are our hordes exactly? What does it take to bust one?

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Amount of pre-save single turn damage to destroy max size unit on average: rend 0/1/2/mortal

Skeletons (default): 43.2/28.8/28.8/28.8

Skeletons (bait): 57.6/34.56/28.8/28.8

Skeletons (ossific diadem): 51.84/34.56/34.56/34.56

Grave Guard (default): 57.6/34.56/28.8/28.8

Grave Guard (bait): 86.4/43.2/34.56/28.8 

Grave Guard (ossific diadem): 69.12/41.47/34.56/34.56

Dire Wolves: 68.4/54.72/45.6/45.6

Dire Wolves (corpse cart): 91.2/68.4/54.72/45.6

 

Note that all of these numbers are probably a little low. I'm measuring for the number of damage that it will take on average to get to 24 unsaved wounds for the deathrattle blocks and 38 unsaved wounds on the Dire Wolves (as this will, on average, battleshock the rest of the unit off). In order get a guaranteed bust you'd need 25 unsaved wounds for deathrattle and 40 unsaved wounds on the Dire Wolves. Of course it will take a lot more if inspiring presence is involved. 

Dire Wolves are just loads better than skeletons on defense, both in terms of efficiency and in terms of absolute performance. The wolves come out on top even when comparing buffed skeletons to unbuffed wolves. The closest it gets is unbuffed wolves vs. rend 0 compared to buffed skeletons, and even here the wolves perform 18.75% better for 14.28% more points -- both more powerful and more efficient. In other cases the wolves perform almost 60% more efficiently. 

Of course, there is a cost here too in that Dire Wolves are quite a bit less efficient to heal. With a Corpse Cart or other source of DI rerolls you'll only "fail" around 11% of rolls on Dire Wolves, but you'll also be stuck returning 2 wounds each time instead of having a chance at 3. So 10 rerollable DI triggers on a unit of wolves will restore an average of 17.8 wounds while the same will restore an average of 23.33 wounds to skeletons. 

This also brings up an interesting question about optimal unit sizes. I think for skeletons it's clear cut that 40 is ideal simply because of the bonuses they get for unit size. For Dire Wolves I'm not so sure. 

Lets look at more "bust" data:

Dire Wolves (10 models): 36/28.8/24/24

Dire Wolves (10 models with cart): 48/36/28.8/24

Dire Wolves (15 models):  39.6/31.68/26.4/26.4

Dire Wolves (15 models with cart): 52.8/39.6/31.68/26.4

Dire Wolves (20 models): 50.4/40.32/33.6/33.6

Dire Wolves (20 models with cart): 67.2/50.4/40.32/33.6

The 10 model unit size is clearly the most efficient. In fact, it's kindof shocking:  a 10 model Dire Wolf unit  takes almost as much damage to bust as a 40 man Skeleton Warrior block. Of course the problem here is that  10 model Dire Wolf units don't reach the threshold for preferential treatment in holding objectives, and it's a bit harder to snake them back for buffs.

 

 

OK, all that being said I think it's important to put it into context. Let's take a look at what we can expect in terms of damage output from a few sources.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Changehost: Perhaps this is a bad assumption to make, but I'm just going to assume they get their spells off. This probably won't happen every time and almost certainly can't be sustained for the entire game, but otherwise it's very hard to account for the use of destiny dice. There's obviously a fair amount of variation between lists but we're looking at Infernal Gateway (6mw), Tzeentch's Firestorm (3mw), Bolt of Tzeentch (3.5mw), Arcane Bolt (2mw), Unchecked Mutation (~3mw), and Infernal Flames (.5 mw per target). So that's about 17.5 mortals plus Infernal Flames. Infernal Flames will really be the key here. In the worst case scenario we're looking at 15 mw vs wolves and 20 vs skeletons on average. Beyond that we're looking at a bunch of attacks from horrors, likely 30 pinks, 20-60 blues and 30-90 brimstones. Of course, the lists with more horrors will have less spellcasting. Lets assume something like 30 pinks (7.5 rend 0), 30 blues (7.5 rend 0), and 30 brimstones (6.67 rend 0). 

So summing all that up we're looking at 17-18 mortals, 21-22 rend 0 plus the Gaunt Summoner damage. That's enough to be a favorite to bust a unit of skeletons even without the Gaunt Summoner (about 110% of required damage on average). With a light tap from the Gaunt Summoner (hitting, say, 10 models) you are looking at 128% of required damage and with a full hit (40 models) it'll be more like 180% of the required damage. Those numbers are against unbuffed skeletons. Against Ossific Diadem, the percentages for these scenarios are 92%/107%/146%. With the bait it's  98%/115%/168%. Grave Guard unbuffed: 98%/115%/168%, bait: 86%/103%/155%, diadem:  82%/96%/140%.

Against Dire Wolves it's much more favorable. On average they are only rating about 70% of the required damage on average (with no corpse cart)  or 62% of the required damage on average (with a corpse cart). With the worst case scenario Gaunt Summoner hit (he hits the entire unit) the Changehost is barely a favorite to bust a unit of Dire Wolves without a corpse cart (103% of required damage) and a slight dog (heh) to do it against one with a Corpse Cart (95% of required damage).

Conclusions: The Changehost is a great example of damage output that sits right on a key tipping point. The damage is enough that it will be VERY likely to delete a skeleton unit in one turn and two to three skeleton units on a double turn. Dire Wolves fare much better, however. A unit of dogs has a good chance of survive a full brunt of a Changehost assault for a turn. A double turn will delete a unit almost certainly, but it's pretty unlikely that they will be able to take out two units. It is worth noting that Changehost damage is quite high variance. You have a lot of d3 and d6 damage rolls, 4+/4+ and 5+/5+ rolls without rend, and even a few spells that are even more variable. As a result your actual performance is likely to be quite swingy here and you can get away with skeletons if the dice are hot, but you could also get instantly tabled if the opponent gets lucky. 

 

Aetherstrike Force:  I'm sure this varies some from list to list, but lets look at a nasty build with 9 Longstrikes, 2x5 Judicators, 6 Longstrikes, and the Knight Venator to consider. Some variables to consider include Bless Weapons on the big unit, damned terrain and a -1 hit debuff due to our spell. I'm assuming the target will be affected by the Knight Azyros ability. 9 Longstrikes contribute 7.68 mortals and 20.48 rend 2 damage, 6 Longstrikes contribute 2.33 mortals and 6.22 rend 2 damage, the 2x5 Judicators contribute 8.69 rend 1 damage, and the Knight Venator adds 1.96 rend 1 damage, .33 rend 3 damage (gonna just call this mw for simplicity), and 1.17 rend 0 damage. So that's a grand total of 10.34 mortals, 26.7 rend 2 damage, 10.65 rend 1 damage and 1.17 rend 0 damage. With damned terrain the 9 longstrikes will contribute 14.86 mortals and 14.86 rend 2 damage instead while a -1 to hit penalty the damage is reduced to 18.67 rend 2 damage. So three scenarios: 17.52/21.08/10.65/1.17, 10.34/26.7/10.65/1.17, and 2.66/24.89/10.65/1.17. That's pretty daunting. Lets just start with the most optimistic scenarios to see if there is any hope at all:

Skeletons with Ossific Diadem: 145% of damage needed/140% of damage needed/113% of damage needed

Dire Wolves with Corpse Cart: 94% of damage needed/88% of damage needed/68% of damage needed

Conclusions: I'm not going to bother doing all the detailed math for the other combos. Needless to say skeletons are not going to cut it here -- you are going to lose a unit per turn easily, even if you manage to get -1 to hit on the big unit of longstrikes. If you don't get the hit bonus then you are really getting wrecked and will probably lose your entire horde to one double turn. Dire Wolves fare a lot better. You are a slight favorite to sneak out of a single turn without losing a whole unit and a solid favorite to do so if you get the -1 to hit debuff in place. If you lack Corpse Cart support I'm betting things won't go so well. Unlike Changehost, Aetherstrike Force should be pretty low variance. Most everything is hitting on 2s or 3s rerolling 1s, so there isn't a ton of room for wild swings. The dice will need to be very hot on one side or the other to deviate strongly from these results. Perhaps the most important roll (at least if you don't have the -1 to hit debuff in play) is the Bless Weapons roll which will probably swing things in one direction or the other.

 

Kunnin' Rukk: I'm going to assume they usually get their buffs off, so I'll only consider situations where they have +1 to hit or no bonus (due to your -1 canceling their +1. With +1 to hit they will dish 72.9 rend 0 damage and without it they will only deal 41.8. 

With no bonus to hit, you can refer to the above chart and pretty easily see that only unbuffed skeletons are in trouble if they fail to get +1 to hit. Everything else should be OK(ish) and Dire Wolves with a Corpse Cart might even survive a double turn. With +1 to hit only Grave Guard with The Bait and Dire Wolves with a Corpse Cart really have a chance, and both of those are close calls that won't survive a double turn. A double turn with +1 to hit will probably wipe out your entire skeleton horde.

Conclusions: Things here hinge a bit less on your unit choice, although Dire Wolves are still clearly ahead. Preventing them from getting a net +1 to hit is far more important. If they have damned terrain AND get their +1 to hit spell off you are really screwed. Of course, if you unbind their +1 to hit and also manage to stick your -1 to hit then you are in great shape. 

 

Warrior Kinband: 52.49 rend 0 damage from the throwing axes, 61.24 if they got the enhanced effect on their axe range rune. I'm assuming the buffing heroes will be further back so I'm not accounting for any other damage. I'm not really sure of what else is included in these lists, however, so the damage could definitely go up. We're already in a range where skeletons get obliterated but Dire Wolves have a good chance of surviving a single volley. 

 

 

 

 

Some overall conclusions: there are a lot of lists out there with enough ranged damage concentration to consistently destroy a 40 strong unit of Skeleton Warriors regardless of whether or not they are buffed with either the Ossific Diadem or The Bait. However, many of these lists are not able to consistently destroy a 30 strong unit of Dire Wolves in a single turn, particularly if supported by a Corpse Cart. 5 and 10 strong units of Dire Wolves are even more efficient in that they take an absurd amount of work to put down for their cost, but they have the disadvantage of not being preferred objective holders in some scenarios. 

All that being said, Dire Wolves have one clear disadvantage -- their offense sucks compared to skeletons. They can do some work, but they get very awkward in large units. Skeletons, on the other hand, are going to be able to push back hard against other horde infantry like Plague Monks. 

If you are expecting to face a lot of very heavy shooting, you will probably need Dire Wolf blocks as skeleton blocks won't hold up. If you are expecting to face horde infantry, then you will probably want skeletons. A mix seems ideal in theory, but I'm not sure it will cut it against the heavy shooting lists. 

 

I feel like I'm a little bit closer to nailing down some actual lists, but that'll have to come later!

That pretty much confirms exactly what I was thinking, to be honest; make no mistake, Skeleton Hordes are deadly as hell, but they are no where near invulnerable as people think they are, even with DI. They definetly need that forward screen of Dire Wolfs to soak up shots and to provide a presence up the field, less they get mowed down and shot to oblivion. The beauty of direwolves is that not only are they surprisingly resilient, but they are fully capable of doing a moderate amount of damage, especially against softer enemy units.

Now, my other question that still eludes me, is how Black Knights and Hexwraiths stack up to one another.