Are GW miniatures reaching a point now where they won't have to keep re-releasing "dated" lines?

[Kyriakin]

The conversation on the Skaven rumours thread has moved onto discussing the likelihood of GW eventually exploring and/or fully supporting all the different flavoursome  clans (e.g. Skurvy, Mors, Eshin, etc.), and this brought my mind back to something I have been thinking a lot about recently.

The crux of this argument is that I now truly believe we are hitting now is that model quality is starting to plateau.

Sure, they said that the special effects in Jurassic Park would never be topped when that movie was released in the mid-90's, while now it looks dated. However, the Lord of the Rings trilogy (2001-2004) still holds up pretty well, and many superhero movies from ten years ago look like they could have been made yesterday.

Furthermore, if my phone screen got any higher in definition, my eyes wouldn't be able to perceive it. If the phone got any thinner, the device would break too easily. If the screen was any bigger, I couldn't get the device in my pocket and if it got too small I wouldn't be able to see it. I am told my Android version keeps updating (e.g. Marshmallow, Kit-kat, Lollipop, etc.), but I have hardly noticed any of these changes as they basically nailed it years ago.

Anyway, back to miniatures. From very late WHFB onward, the releases have seemed to be a full level above what came before (e.g. Treeman, Irondrakes, etc.). All have obviously been in the preferred "end game" material of hard plastic, and releases such as Tzeentch possess a level of detail that, if surpassed, would risk becoming too time-consuming, difficult and/or intimidating to paint. Furthermore, the larger and more intricate kits are getting close to their maximum size and/or fragility for convenient transportation. As with the technological examples discussed above, technology is no longer the limiting factor. We are.

While tastes and fashions may change to a certain extent over the forthcoming years and decades, I can't imagine anyone will look at, say, Tzaangor Skyfires in the future and say things like "lol, hard plastic sucks", "look at their terrible proportions!" or "they really lack detail". In fact, I truly believe that these miniatures will hold up just as well in 2027 as they do today.

In terms of what this may mean for AoS, I feel many old, current and new factions can, and will, be explored for the following reasons:

(1) Hitting an "end game" level of quality will remove the need for GW to continuously go over old lines of traditional big sellers (e.g. space marines, orcs and goblins, etc.) that were deemed to have become"dated" in terms of materials and/or aestehics, and can instead keep pushing outwards into new units, factions and even games.

(2) R&D will instead go into finding ways to reach this level more efficiently, easily, cheaply and/or quickly. While this will obviously eventually allow smaller companies to reach a similar level of model quality - albeit with far smaller ranges - it will also allow GW to take more risks. If up-front costs become lower, a range that was believed to have been unprofitable before (e.g. WHFB "Tomb Kings") may suddenly tip the scales. Sure, it may be positioned below other even more viable factions in the queue - which is why I believe GW increased their production capacity recently (i.e. they were coming up with more profitable ideas more quickly than they could get them into production) - AoS "Ptra Sandkin" would be likely to happen eventually.

(3) Tying-in with Point 2, an AoS "faction" requires far fewer kits than an old WHFB "army", due to the smaller size of the non-Stormcast factions (currently!) and increased ability to produce multi-kits. As a result, 12 warscrolls and six kits for the hypothetical Ptra Sandkin would represent a far less risky investment for GW than 15+ distinct plastic kits that would have been required for the Tomb Kings in the parallel universe of WHFB 9th Edition.

TL;DR: G-Dubzz dun have to make any more mahreens after dem new tall mahreens are out wit' all dem deetz, so dey can make dem Clan Skurvy pirate ratz, innit.

[Barkanaut]

True but people’s tatstes change. I’m sure I’m 30 years AoS will be for gramps and all the designs looks stupid to the kids lol. No doubt about it. Heck even 10 years perhaps just stylistically we’ll think a few models look oddly posed or weirdly decorated that sort of thing even if technically they are well made. A good example is the current dark Eldar archon who many feel is completely inferior than the old dark plastic one. To the point even most new de fans hate the new archon model after the vets show the cooler old one. The technical design and detail,of the new one is so much very,  but the pose is really try hard and not very menacing. 

[Kirjava13]

Bonus points for spotting the new Gee Dubz addiction to the word, "kin"!

[Rogue Explorator]

Not so sure about plateau (my Tzaangor, bought at two different timepoints, have some melty blobby parts all in the same spots), but the quality certainly has reached a very high level and the speed at which said quality of the actual casts rises seems to slow down a bit.

And there are certainly lines where there is very little avenue for further expansion or redos (looking at you, loyalist Space Marines).

On the other hand, does this mean GW can just stop updating and expanding existing factions?

First of all, the majority of lines is quite far from having all kits up to date and GW seems in little to no hurry bringing them up to scratch (in 40, Aeldari, Space Orcs and Chaos Space Marines all still have models dating back to 2nd edition).

So, while GW may not have to re do anything they currently put out for a looong time, we are far from a point where all classic lines can just be left as is without their age showing.

 

Then, there is the question of the lifetime of the moulds themselves. I think this used to be a serious thing, though these days the moulds propably hold for quite some time and, being based on cad design, are not irreplacable as long as the files are still around. Still, it might be something to keep in mind.

 

Then there is the simple matter that people will always want more new stuff for their favorite armors. Lets look at all the complaints that loyal Space Marines and Stormcast get so much support and attention. Does it mean demand for them is sinking? I do not think so, sometimes I feel like for everyone that says "enough with the Marines" there is some asking for the next hot new thing for Stormcast or when the next Update for Dark Angels/Blood Angel/Space Wolfes/etc. is out. Fans of other factions are not asking less (there is just fever of them.

 

We can actually watch a big experiment right now, wh40k, used to being the most supported favored child of GW for easily over a decade, is getting a very thin amount of miniatures right now (while also getting more and better rules support than, pretty much ever?).

Now, the vast majority of 40k factions (really, all the long established ones) has more models and units to choose from than even Stormcast can dream of, most of them even up to modern standard.

Right now, the grumbling is very minor, but has not even been remotely a year. Now, word on the net is only worth so much, the big question is how stable the sales stay. As said, I think we can be curious how this all turns out. AoS seems to have grown quite well last year, even though it was not exactly blessed with a wealth of new miniatures in 2017. But chances are, it is picking up more right now.

 

But so far, I think that people will always want to see continued support, not only in rules but also new models and units, for their favorite factions. And to a certain amount, GW will have to deliver that support for established factions to keep a happy customer base. And the need to deliver that support sets something of a natural limit to how many factions GW can push out there.

[Aussiemandias]

Many kits could use a refresh, examples being 40k Ork buggies and AoS generic orruks- there could easily be many refreshed kits being splash releases or tied into campaigns, etc.

Most of the older kits for AoS are legacy armies moved forward but a great deal of Destruction is rather lacking in that generic orruks, grots are sitting on old WHFB 6th ed minis (the former still hold up though despite not having bow options in plastic besides kitbashing savage orruks) that could use a refresh. Looking to 40k and you have 2nd-3rd ed designs *still* in need of a refresh- mostly Eldar plastics, old Ork buggies,  Astral Millipede cadians and so on.

As much as I enjoy GW putting out new factions (loving the sea aelves though won't collect them- Khaine is my god ) I do wish they'd splash a few updated kits in between. Hell, I'd be on Orruks as soon as the generic ones get a revamp. Battletome: Hordes of Gork (or possibly Mork) please!

 

[mhsellwood]

A very interesting question.

One of the very important things to understand (I think) is the idea of a product life cycle, which is that all products go through a kind of u shape where the x axis is time and the y axis is sales. Basically sales will increase to a point, plateau and then reduce down to nothing. For Games Workshop all of their products are likely to have this shape but every product at different stages and different magnitudes - that is, Marines may be on the downward trend but their sales are still likely greater than the peak of any other product line.

What this means from a business point of view is that you need products at every stage of this process - you need ones that you are investing in and promoting and pushing towards the maximum sale area, ones at the maximum sales plateau and generating good cash, and ones on the downwards path that you are drawing as much pure profit as possible from while planning for their replacement.

How this relates to your question is really around that shape of this graph for completely new versus replacing old, and also the question of lead time and investment in product required. If replacing old gives a graph of revenue that is consistently like the previous product graph (orruk boyz hit max sales numbers in week 6, consistent for 24 weeks, reduction to very low over 12 weeks; new box does the same thing with very similar sales numbers) this gives you predictability and much more ability to plan your investment and your production. If you are releasing new product you don't know what the graph will be so it becomes much more difficult to plan, but with much more scope to actually improve your performance on what you did before.

So, from GW's point of view the question is also about what sells, and where is the market going, and what does it cost to develop a completely new thing versus redoing old. If it costs the same either way, investment is relatively low, and the return from releasing a wide range of new things outstrips continuing on the same path (some duds but some huge hits making for a better return than same as the last time plus hopefully a bit of organic growth in your customer base), then we will see imaginative new releases rather than same old same old.

Personally I prefer the approach of releasing new things. It gives more scope to have that one perfect release for current and new players, it frees the setting from being restricted to being the last one +1, and it speaks to the desire for creativity and surprise.

[Captain Marius]

This is probably my favourite topic with GW - how to market their products to make me spend more with them.

AoS has done ok out of me in the past few years. Ive amassed sizable armies of sigmarines and bloodbound, but havent really invested in any of the other brand new stuff, instead picking up Start Collecting boxes full of the older ranges. I have bought a lot of the AoS terrain too. Ill pick up the next GHB on release day, but ive started to move away from buying every book that comes out...

Mainly because the way theyre supporting 40k has completely put me off. Ive not even had time to read the latest codex, before the next two are out, and the lack of mini releases gives me no incentive to buy, paint or play with any of the multiple 40k armies ive accrued over two decades. I dont want to spend all my hobby budget on codexes so ive stopped buying them, which in turn has stopped me buying AoS battletomes...

I guess I prefer the AoS approach of releasing whatever they want whenever they want, compared to 40ks current rules spam. I dont mind factions being left in the dust - old stuff has to die to make way for new stuff (eg the Old World ?). So long as there are fun models for me to paint ill keep buying!

[Kirjava13]

On that note, what're everyone's thoughts on races? Do you prefer to see old races redone, or entirely new things? Could you subsist on reimaginings of greenskins forever, or do you jump all over the new hotness? 

[Skabnoze]

9 minutes ago, Kirjava13 said:

On that note, what're everyone's thoughts on races? Do you prefer to see old races redone, or entirely new things? Could you subsist on reimaginings of greenskins forever, or do you jump all over the new hotness? 

I prefer to see a mixture of both - with a slightly higher emphasis on getting the old stuff up to par with some decent rules.  I like new stuff just as much as the next guy, but if GW wanted to keep the old range alive and brought over into the game (which they have done so) then I want them to give me some decent rules for my old collection - even if they are going to lock the range in time and not update it.  Basically, take a moment and drop something like Legions Of Nagash out for the rest of the legacy ranges.  Then they can proceed on either transferring some of that stuff into new expanded allegiances (such as with Daughters of Khaine) or just make brand new stuff (like Khardaron Overlords or Idoneth Deepkin).

As for greenskins forever - is that a rhetorical question?

[Kyriakin]

Part of me wishes that GW (or FW) just listed the 10-15 worst sculpts/units that are still in the game and re-did them.

i.e. Nightrunners, Centigors, Gutter runners, Salamanders, Fell bats, Bat Swarms, Blood Knights, Keeper of Secrets, Furies, Black Coach, Zombies, Dire Wolves, etc.

I feel that Soulblight alone would almost sell like a new faction, as the current sculpts put most people off what should fundamentally be a popular archetype.

[someone2040]

I think you could probably argue that anything post late 6th edition (I'm talking around the time of Wood Elves/Dwarfs) will probably stick around for a good while and are pretty good sculpts overall.

There may be aesthetic issues that some people have with them (Such as the Freeguild Guard as opposed to the 6th edition ones, or the Daemonettes) but overall they're pretty serviceable sculpts that I can see lasting for years to come.

But certainly everything prior to that is likely in need of a redo. If anything because the moulds are probably beginning to wear out and a lot of that stuff tends to have poor mould lines and the like.

 

It's for reasons like that I wouldn't necessarily put much stock in factions like Gitmob Grots that are made up of largely 6th edition sculpts. I do feel that perhaps some of these factions are going to be discontinued at some point. Which will be a bit of a shame, because I think a redo could see a lot of the stuff done much better in todays standards.

[Thebiggesthat]

I think the newest models are reaching a standard of design that is as close to being too detailed as we will get. So potentially, you could be looking at the Deepkin models in 10 years and not holding your nose. 

I firmly believe the production and assembly will have moved on to a point that people will be looking at those same models on sprue and thinking 'what a chore this is'. 

The issue now is that the gap is widening with the quality, to a point that it's becoming a massive issue. I've had four things on my table recently for my new Moonclan Project. A load of spear grots, a Colossal Squig, some Squighoppers and a Fungoid Shaman.  The Grots are simple to put together, but a bit boring and mono-pose, which doesn't look great compared to other armies. The Colossal was a nightmare, the detail is there but the casting process is till not great, so a lot of work. The hoppers made me wince, finecast is terrible, horrible, soft and unforgiving, and I would not put myself through that again. The Shaman was great, the sprue was intelligently laid out and went together fine. 

 

We are now seeing electric cars, at varying price points, that for the first time are genuine alternatives to what we've had for the last 10 years in terms of performance and affordability. Will they still stand up to scrutiny in another 10? Yes, probably more than a 10 year old BMW does now. But they aren't the problem, it's the raising of the bar that makes other older models look even more obsolete.  

 

TLDR? We might be wowed by the quality of the model detail-wise, and it's definitely reaching a point where improvement becomes more difficult. But the look of the mini is only half the 'model', and whilst we are cleaning mold lines and sticking 30 bits together for a model, we are no-where near yet!

[AaronWilson]

I mean the question is,  do GW really need to  go back and produce new models for there old ranges? There's 7 realms to explore and introduce exciting new races. 

[Barkanaut]

12 minutes ago, AaronWIlson said:

I mean the question is,  do GW really need to  go back and produce new models for there old ranges? There's 7 realms to explore and introduce exciting new races. 

Yes they do. I want more Kharadron ships and everything. Also more Deepkin. I also want more new races. I imagine everyone else wants new stuff too. Granted I feel armies will end up being smaller than in 40k even once GW starts going back to add to them here and there. 

[Dragobeth]

1 minute ago, Barkanaut said:

Yes they do. I want more Kharadron ships and everything. Also more Deepkin. I also want more new races. I imagine everyone else wants new stuff too. Granted I feel armies will end up being smaller than in 40k even once GW starts going back to add to them here and there. 

Not sure if he mean AoS races as "old ranges", old ranges is more about all the factions from the Old World that GW keeps selling (999 HE factions, Freeguild, some goblins, etc) New Kharadron, Stormcast, Khorne, Deepkin isn't go back and give new model for the old ranges.

I could love a new human faction (doesn't have to be in Order GA) since i don't really like the Old Empire style, new orruk flavour could be nice too. On the other hand I want new Kharadron too, only 3 ships when the ships are the main thing about that army looks poor.

I'm fine with GW using a sculpt 10 years if it's well made (good looks and assemble) that's plenty of time to make new stuff after making a new sculpt for that unit.

[Rogue Explorator]

1 hour ago, Thebiggesthat said:

TLDR? We might be wowed by the quality of the model detail-wise, and it's definitely reaching a point where improvement becomes more difficult. But the look of the mini is only half the 'model', and whilst we are cleaning mold lines and sticking 30 bits together for a model, we are no-where near yet!

I think you are really onto something here.

For everything we have gained with GWs advances in kit quality, there are some things we have lost.

While we have gotten much improved poses on most miniatures, actual posability of parts is becoming more and more of a rarity (Bloodwarriors are one of the last kits I can think of, love that the upper torso can be turned).

Options are also seriously going down, for most newly released heroes, conversions are the only way to customise them at all (and because rules represent only what is available, artefacts are the only why to customise equipment at all). Looking at Namarti Thralls, that unit offers absolutely no options (though I like that all the 2hdt weapons have the same stats), besides the somewhat hilarious and propably swiftly errata'ed oversight of being able to make every thrall a +1 attack iconbearer. Compare that to the marginally older Tzaangor, that actually have to many warscroll options (imo), but gain some measure of posability from the sheer amount of arms contained in the set at the cost at a rather fiddly asembly.

 

And then there is all the little bit and bobs you used to get in unit kits (Bretonian men-at-arms where a prime example) that did not have any rule purpose, nor any specific spot they belong on any miniature. These are increasingly fading. Sure, you still get oddball equipment bits and pets galore, the difference that they are now attatched in a much more rigid fashion, like the strange little mecha bird on the grundstock thunderers, you would have to very carefully carve the lower part from a backpack to use it elsewhere (and in doing so, rob your thunderer of a special rule, but that is a rules issue).

I think that is why they iclude so many basing bits currently (all those nurglings, the sea flora and fauna on Idoneth), it gives that seens of "bits for the bits box" (sprues for its throne?) current kits might lack elsewhere.

 

This is no straight up linear developement, the kits are all over the place on ease of assembly (bar the "easy to build" ones, of course), amount of extra gubbins, posability and options offered. Blightkings have great options (and the same rules for all options, giving you great creative license with them, I love that, but again, a rules thing), Hexwraiths might as well be monopose (but are fiddlier than most monopose models), Bloodwarriors have great posability, etc.

From what I understand, each sculptor is also in charge of the cut of the sprue and my guess is each has different priorities (some want posability, some want to offer options, some focus on bits, some priorities easy assembly etc).

So there is one route to improving the minis= pooling that experience of the designers to optimise sprue cut to cover some degree of options, gubbins and posability (in short: more customisability) to a greater amount of kits than is currently true.

38 minutes ago, AaronWIlson said:

I mean the question is,  do GW really need to  go back and produce new models for there old ranges? There's 7 realms to explore and introduce exciting new races. 

If we consider just the pre-AoS ranges, some are essential to the setting to some degree. All the monogod forces are in part old lines, Freeguild form the bulk of the free peoples military, the majority of Chaos tribes are not the chosen of one god, but the less favored Slaves to Darkness, Brayherd (or at least Gor-kin) still pop up everywhere and what would Death be without Vampires, Skeletons and Zombies.

Now, in some cases the old faction might see a new one take its place. I think this is happening with Slaves to Darkness: Unmarkable Darkoath slowly pushing old Chaos Warriors into the background. I could certainly see Freeguild ultimately become outdated as new military traditions rise among the Free Peoples. New kinds of Beastmen could push old Brayherd into obscurity (though if undivided Beastmen never get any love at all, I might riot ).

But it is pretty hard to see the current daemons ever not being important. And Skeletons and Zombies will always be a thing.

 

But I think the really big question is, will all factions that have seen a release for AoS see continous support? Or will that be a privelege of a rare few lines (Monogod, SCE), while most get something like "one drop and that is it"? Because long term, the second has huge potential to burn people on the hobby.

 

One potential path is for future developements is the way SCE have been expanded so far, by sub-subfactions. Each SCE expansion that has not been a single char has been a new chamber opening. So after the initial release for any given faction, thereafter we will see subgroups added to each. We can already see this sort of with DoK, all new miniatures where of Morathi and her hidden Scathborn.

So, maybe Bloodbound are done and we may never see truly new Bloodbound. But instead we may see them expanded in other directions, and we see more "civilised" and secretive Bloodcults (an equivalent to Arcanites) and Khorgor later. Disciples of Tzeentch gave use Tzaangor, daemons and Arcanite Cults. Future Tzeentch could be Warriors of Tzeentch, Sorcerer Lords and their minions or Mutant hordes. Future Slaves to Darkness will likely be Darkoath. But maybe one day after that another type of tribe sees rise or we get to see more organized regiments of special Chaos Warriors. Fyreslayers clearly represent what there is to the Core of the Clans. But maybe there are some more specialised sub-cults of Grimnir, maybe cults of other dead dwarven gods in their numbers? And they are mentioned to be highly patriarchal, only the men are offered the runes of goldand power of Grimnir. Maybe at times their women fight still at their side, clad in full armor to compensate for the lack of runes? The Knight is a purposefully created Ghost set to a specific task, quite the depature by the old Nighthaunt shaped by their fate and mortal lifes, a possible indication for the future route of the faction.

This is a bit of having the cake and eating it too.  Existing armies and collections can expect future expansion with new miniatures, yet in a way, GW can focus on churning out new "factions" at all times.

This could go quite far, we may never see a new Zombie kit just called Zombies but we might see a something compound something compound unit of Zombies to take over as go to battleline for Corpsewalkers. Same for clanrats and skeletons. I have noticed that the Sepulchral Guard are of a different kind from the Wight Kingdoms described in GA:Death and their basic members are called petitioners. Currently that kind of Skeleton is specific to Shadespire, but with Nagashes great work, that same curse may strike others. And Spiteclaws swarm does not exactly match clanrats, there are subtle differences...