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mhsellwood last won the day on June 14 2016

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  1. Fundamentally to calculate a probability you need to work out how many possible outcomes there are, how many outcomes represent a desired result, and then doing a fraction based on this. Quick note on jargon: Numerator means the top number on a fraction - therefore with 2/6 the numerator is 2. Denominator is the bottom number on a fraction - therefore with 2/6 the denominator is 6. For a simple example of calculating probabilities: You roll a 6 sided dice, and you want to roll a 4, 5, or 6. There are 6 possible outcomes and 3 outcomes represent what we want. The likelihood is therefore 3 (the number of outcomes that we are interested in) over 6 (total possible outcomes) which translates to a 50% chance. N.b 1/6 is roughly 16.6% but is not exactly this amount. The next step from this is how to calculate multiple probabilities (i.e. if you roll a dice needing a 4+, then a dice needing a 5+, what is the chance of succeeding?). Following on from the example above we can work out that a 4+ is a 3/6 simplifying to 1/2, and a 5+ is a 2/6 simplifying to a 1/3. To calculate the chance of both succeeding we multiply both the likelihoods of success together. Maths below: Numerator 1 (1) x numerator 2 (1) = 1. Denominator 1 (2) x denominator 2 (3) = 6. Final result is therefore 1/6. From a practical point of view, the fraction tells us that on average if you hit on 4+ and wound on 5+ you will need around 6 attacks to inflict one hit. Again, remember the difference between theoretical and experimental probability. That is, theoretical says for every 6 attacks, you get one wound. Experimental, i.e. actually rolling the dice, says if you start with 6 attacks, you may end up with no wounds, or you may end up with 6. Over the course of many thousands of rolls you will end up with 1/6 of your attacks doing a wound, but any given set of rolls is not likely to be exactly 1 wound per 6 attacks (in fact the most likely result on any single roll of 6 dice is no wounds). An extended example, and to provide some additional discussion: A Liberator with a Warhammer attacks a Blood Warrior. Calculation: 2 (attacks) x 1/2 (to hit on a 4+ therefore 3 (number of desired outcomes) / 6 (number of potential outcomes) simplified to 1/2) x 2/3 (to wound on 3+ therefore 4 (number of desired outcomes) / 6 (number of potential outcomes) simplified to 2/3) x 1/2 ((note this is the chance of the Blood Warrior FAILING their save - a high save will lead to a lower chance of doing a wound, low save the reverse) to save of 4+ therefore 3 (number of desired outcomes) / 6 (number of potential outcomes) simplified to 1/2). Calculation for numerator 2 x 1 x 2 x 1 = 4 Calculation for denominator 1 x 2 x 3 x 2 = 12 Final result: 4/12 simplified to 1/3. Final point related to these calculations: note that absent external modifiers, order makes no probability difference as all rolls are independent. That is, if the liberator hit on 3+ and wounded on 4+ the end result is the same. Similarly, if the Liberator hit on 4+, wounded on 4+, but the Blood Warrior saved on 5+, the final result is the same. Next blog post will be about most likely result, and how we can think about bounded or capped results.
  2. Compendium specifically means warscrolls that are only available in the compendium's Games Workshop released at the same time as Age of Sigmar was released. At this point that mainly means Brettonians and Tomb Kings but there are some other models that are compendium only - for example for Dispossessed the old Anvil of Doom model was in the initial set of compendium rules but have never subsequently been reprinted. There are plenty of units / warscrolls that are only in the respective Grand Alliance books but are not compendium armies. For example Order Draconis (who are a really good army) is solely models from Grand Alliance: Order and it is certainly not a compendium army.
  3. The intent of this blog is to do some really basic discussion on probability, and how that can inform thinking about your games, and a bit of thinking about how we can model outcomes. First then, what this blog is. I will aim to keep this relatively straightforwards in terms of what I am describing, and I will aim to not use excessive amounts of jargon or technical terms. Although I intend to focus on Age of Sigmar most of the logic is applicable to any dice rolling game and I would like to do some looking at Underworlds as well. What this blog is not. Full disclosure I am not a mathematician. I have been playing Games Workshop games for about 25 years, I am post graduate qualified in accounting, and I do a lot of work with numbers, but I do not hold a tertiary mathematics degree. Therefore it is very much focused on real world probability and application rather than academic level discussion. For this first blog then, let's look at a really basic concept that helps to put some context around mathhammer (by this I mean the discussion around the 'hard' aspect of the game being the numbers versus the 'soft' aspects such as the social contract, positioning, decision making etc.) and how it is useful or is not. Discussion of probability within games must be considered using 2 different lenses: theoretical probability versus experimental probability. Theoretical probability is the probability that is produced through pure calculation. As an example, the probability of rolling a 6 on 1 dice is 1/6 (~16.6%) so if we roll 6 dice theoretical probability indicates 1 of these dice will be a 6. Experimental probability is the result of actually doing the thing we are discussing. So to contrast the example above, for the experimental probability of rolling a 6 on 6 dice, we would roll 6 dice, count the number of 6's and that would give us the percentage of 6's rolled. The importance of this is probably obvious; intuitively we know that 6 dice 'should' include a 6, but from personal experience I know this is all too often not the case. Thus, when we talk about probability and what 'should' happen always keep in mind that we are discussing theoretical probability, and that experimental probability is quite significantly different. The other thing to consider is the concept of independent versus dependent probabilities. Independent probabilities are probabilities that are in no way influenced by another probability. I.e. if you roll a dice the chance of getting a six is 1/6. If you roll a six, then the next roll has a chance of rolling a six of... 1/6. Dependent probabilities are where probabilities change. As an example the chance of pulling any given card (let's say Great Strength) from your deck in Underworlds is 1/20. After you draw your first card, the chance of the next card being Great Strength is 1/19. Why is this important? If a thing is an independent probability then a player has no control over the outcome (you rolls your dice and you takes your chances). If a thing is a dependent probability you have a degree of control - if you draw and discard cards then in order to increase your chances of drawing a specific card you need to draw more cards as each card drawn increases the odds of drawing the card you want. Next blog post will be basic mathematics of working out the possibility of something happening.
  4. half of season 1, all but one from season 2. Thinking of going back and picking up a couple more from season 1. Love playing Underworlds.
  5. A fair point Still-young. I would however refer you to the design of the iconography on the Barad-Dur miniatures from Games Workshop. Picture below: Note the shield design - although clearly an eye, it is the Eye of Sauron, and the stylised flames around it are related to the description of the Eye as a "flame of red" in the Lord of the Rings book. Hence my reference to the stylised flames - they are the iconography around the eye.
  6. I reckon Shyish on the far left - some king of cannibal death cult, maybe an aspect of defying Nagash by taking the dead inside yourself? Then Aqshy to the right of that - stylised flames so maybe some kind of flame cult?
  7. Good point re. Soul Wars. Had forgotten they had hands on for that.
  8. Hopefully we will get to see more of Warcry at the Games Expo this weekend. Last year was pretty quiet for Age of Sigmar with only a single model previewed, but I would be happy this year if they show another of the Warcry warbands. I would however be ecstatic if they also talked a bit about gameplay.
  9. How many points of painted Ironjawz are you up to now?
  10. In terms of price, the Faiet 212 blog has it at GBP 95 which I believe is the same as previous boxes like Carrion Empire. Although I don't really trust too many rumours, Faiet 212 has almost 100% accuracy on the price side of things.
  11. No you are right, like an idiot I just did 30 tree-revenants forgetting about the full unit point discount. 100 points feels good - they are very mobile, decent damage dealing and a very strong command ability. Don't know if they will get a new unit (although I would love a new unit with decent mobility like a giant flying beetle / spite unit) but with a new Battletome should come a new terrain piece and endless spells which would shake their play style up a lot
  12. A new preview today, including some info on the Arch-Revenant: https://www.warhammer-community.com/2019/04/30/looncurse-the-heroes-and-sample-armiesgw-homepage-post-1/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Facebook&utm_campaign=AoS&utm_content=AoSLooncurseHeroesPreviewApr30&fbclid=IwAR0VaVzL6E6v_Dqc2xegUZ30iFNYnzeOQlRGPgWo33lqNxU4psX77erZ9LA# Working out points he looks to be 130 points (assuming all other units stay at their current cost). Hits decently hard and is a massively helpful buff unit - with a 12" move and FLY should be where you need him to be and buffing units that are currently a bit average. Don't think he is quite Arch Regent level game changing, but a nice boost to Sylvaneth close combat
  13. As has already been said, this is a great start point for both armies. For the Gitz, you have the option of up to 4 separate units who can all be battleline (2 x 5 Squig hoppers who are battleline with a Loonboss on Giant Cave Squig, 2 x 6 Squig Herd who are battleline with a Moonclan boss) and a very solid leader both in terms of how he supports the other models in the box, but also his stats. The slight downside here is that there is no obvious 'next step' for the purchaser. Obviously you can expand by just picking up whatever models look cool and no need to worry about battleline as you can easily cover that off, but an ideal offering would be say a Start Collecting box with something like a unit of stabbas/shootas, a Shaman and a Troggoth unit. For the Sylvaneth you get 2 battleline units, a very cool 'other' unit and a new character. This also then flows perfectly into picking up a Start Collecting box. With just two purchases you have a pretty solid 1,000 point list and basically the core for any size list you might want to build. Personally I am pretty interested in how much change we are going to see for the Sylvaneth (Gitz being brand new means I don't expect we will see any changes for them). The rules for Yltahri's Guardians suggests a change in the Revenants Martial Memories rule, but I wonder whether we will see hints of the broader changes likely in the new battletome.
  14. So Warcry has had a bit more info unveiled at Adepticon (you can go read it at Warhammer Community). Main thing that is new information is that on release there will be more than just Chaos - they have shown about 9 different faction symbols. Does this up the hype level just a bit?
  15. To be fair Stabbas are out of stock basically everywhere in Australia too. The basic fact seems to be that GW are at this point facing an issue of over demand and under supply (note they recognise this - if you read their half year report the CEO specifically calls out the issue of stock level). They are investing a lot of money in fixing this issue, again in their financials you can see significant investment in production facilities, and I read a newspaper article about the Memphis distribution hub doubling in floor space. However, supply chain issues aren't resolved overnight. Wouldn't surprise me if in general GW has been caught flat footed by the demand for AoS products.
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