Aos Metawatch 03/07-01/08

[whispersofblood]

1 hour ago, Neil Arthur Hotep said:

Let's just assume that we are all competent at reading statistics

I think in the data we have in this thread, win percentage seems to be the most interesting stat. Of course ideally, we would like extra info on a variety of other metrics, but even if we want to argue that the win% for Seraphon is not representative of their real strength or potential on the table, it's an interesting stat to be explained in it's own right.

For what it's worth, Seraphon have a high meta%, so that tells me many of the players who were previously playing them and getting results are probably still playing them, but failing to put up the same numbers. It might just be a case of the faction needing to shift to a new strategy. They certainly have enough tools to stay relevant. But it seems like something has definitely happened that made their previous play style less effective.

I'm pretty sure it's largely down to an inability to deal with Archaon. But it could also be that people have a grasp on how to play against Seraphon. I also think they aren't as well placed to play into SoB as they were.

[grimgold]

11 hours ago, Honk said:

trouble with those statistics is, that they don’t really count in player skill. I guess, that the WaaC-Players will buy into the new hotness and max cheese, while the BoC players play their beloved army. They might do that very competently, but the crazy guys lay the crazy armies 🤔

 

People win games based on their attributes; the relative skill of the players, their lists, the mission, and a dash of luck. When your looking at the end result it's hard to isolate what factors went into the win, but it's not impossible. Like would you look at Sons of Behemath and assume they are doing so well because the faction is lucky? Of course not, that's because you understand that luck might be lumpy but it's evenly distributed at scale, so each faction is expected to have a typical amount of luck. That's an example of the principle of mediocrity, and we can use that to better understand data sets where we might not know all of the contributing factors. A good example of this is the saying "When you hear hooves, think horse, not zebra"

So if we see that a faction like SoB is doing well, and we assume they have a typical distribution of skill, luck, and battle plans, the most likely conclusion is that they are more powerful than the competition. It might be that all of the try-hards are running SoB because of something unrelated to their relative power, like maybe all try-hards are into loin cloths and dad bods. That would not be typical though, and thus the burden of proof would rest on the person making that claim.

These kind of meta analysis gives us a few vital pieces of information, it tells us how popular each faction is in a tournament setting, and approximately how powerful they are compared to the mean power level of all armies. This lets us make better list building decisions for competitive environments, For instance if Ogors counter your list, your going to have a bad time because of how common they are. 

[Sorrow]

Kharadon Overlords placing mildly surprises me.

Pretty amusing to see the Soulblight and the Lumineth at the top and the Hedonites at the bottom.

[japaricio]

1 hour ago, Sorrow said:

Kharadon Overlords placing mildly surprises me.

Pretty amusing to see the Soulblight and the Lumineth at the top and the Hedonites at the bottom.

KO is in an awkward position right now. They can play the same game they used to play in 2.0 but now is not enough. Plain and simple.

 

The board size has gone down, KO doesn't have monsters, now the rend 1 in almost all the units is less effective overall and our MW output is almost unexistent (I know, bombs, but it is unreliable, and it's difficult to use the battering ram in the ironclad because we need to fit so much things in there). On the other hand, our mobility gives us still some play in the battle tactics.

 

So basically every KO player is trying new things and combos with our troops (I'm in this group) or is playing another army (that goes on the book).

[Lord Krungharr]

11 hours ago, whispersofblood said:

I'm pretty sure it's largely down to an inability to deal with Archaon. But it could also be that people have a grasp on how to play against Seraphon. I also think they aren't as well placed to play into SoB as they were.

I was trying to use the activation wars again with my Beasts of Khorne vs Seraphon.  It kinda worked for a couple turns.  That's my only idea in general vs Archaon, somehow make him strike last and pile on everyone around the massive base.  Aside from SoBs that is, they don't care about the fancy Chaos sword as much.

[Skreech Verminking]

9 hours ago, Sorrow said:

Kharadon Overlords placing mildly surprises me.

Pretty amusing to see the Soulblight and the Lumineth at the top and the Hedonites at the bottom.

Just you wait till all 26 of my rattling guns are done

[Honk]

On 8/10/2021 at 7:20 PM, grimgold said:

like maybe all try-hards are into loin cloths and dad bods.

SoB: pure luck and loincloth 🤔

seems legit …

 

For other armies, Lady Luck might tip the balance in a tight spot, but usually has little effect. Otherwise we‘d see far more mangler-squig lists on top 😅

But I guess SoB, SBGL or first Prince still have a bit of a wild card bonus. I think SoB because the army is totally different from the usual AoS armies, SBGL is still very new and First Prince has a crazy ace (he locked Radukar for one whole round (3) and prevented a devastating counter charge) to give him an edge.
The Overview Statistic gives a very good outlook who has been given all the tools or who needs a tailored list to be beaten…

sad to see only 10 games from my bretonian Knights

 

[Skreech Verminking]

4 hours ago, Honk said:

For other armies, Lady Luck might tip the balance in a tight spot, but usually has little effect. Otherwise we‘d see far more mangler-squig lists on top

Mate, have you ever met a true skaven player,

not one of those stormfiends death-star players, who clearly doesn’t know how an army of ratman truly functions??.

[Honk]

2 hours ago, Skreech Verminking said:

Mate, have you ever met a true skaven player

I had the honor… sadly he left the country after meeting my AoS 1.5 ghoul regeneration FEC list 🤣

I had a congo line 💃💃💃 all across the table and into his artillery pieces, then breaking coherency to claim all his territory… all the while my heroes hid behind a shed and buffed like crazy 🕺

He took brutal revenge with plaquemonks on my poor bloodknights a week later 🤷🏿‍♀️

[Ragest]

Data updated with the latest events and fixing the issue of one 2nd ed. event in the table.

Should I use this thread to keep showing the data or is better to start a new one every month?

[japaricio]

39 minutes ago, Ragest said:

Data updated with the latest events and fixing the issue of one 2nd ed. event in the table.

Should I use this thread to keep showing the data or is better to start a new one every month?

I think it would be better to have a thread for every month to keep everything organized and the actual trends not mixing with past trends (I feel we will have a changing meta in these upcoming months).