[How to calculate a probability]

Very good. A basic understanding of probability, I think, is fundamental in list building and general gaming. Knowing that, on average (theoretical) my 10 ard boyz with 20 attacks will only (on average) hit 10 times, wound 5 times and, against a 4+ save do 2-3 wounds on average, well, that makes their offensive output limited, so helps make the decision about the type of battlefield role they will get. This is obviously with no buffs or bonuses, but as a starting point, knowing what is probable makes a big difference. 

[Dragon Ogors...Assemble!]

Awesome project. Good luck. I have 6 of these boys and a Shaggoth. 3 are painted, might have a photo around somewhere if interested.

[Shaggoth work in progress]

I love this model, and the dragon ogors in general. Such a great kit. Look forward to the finished product!

[1. Introduction: Why Theory, and Why Should I Care?]

You are most welcome. That is the reality of a long term campaign. Much is made about tales of conquest and fantastical battles, but the reality is that once the military component ends and one side has achieved the necessary concessions from the other, be it defeat, withdrawal etc. then the mundane tasks of nation building begin. But I digress. I look forward to your next instalment.

[2. Your Units Cost Points but they have no Value]

Great post. I particularly like the concepts outlined at the end of Presence, Pressure and Projection. As true in the real world, if you can't project, you cannot maintain pressure or presence and thus unlikely to achieve your aims. Sometimes it is the feeling of Pressure and Presence through the means of Projection that can be enough to generate a favourable outcome. 

Keep up the great work.

[1. Introduction: Why Theory, and Why Should I Care?]

I feel I want to chime in on this. In terms of Grand Strategy, the Why component of any faction (real or fictitious) is normally related to National Interests and the leveraging of power in whatever form that takes, to achieve the outcomes of the strategy and protect or further national interest.

To shift this into a fantasy role, each factions grand purpose could be discerned readily, e.g. Stormcast to purge Chaos, rebuild the realms etc. These are broad, simple statements with huge ramifications from the top down i.e. Sigmar makes the calls, but his poor old Liberators have to build the latrines in order for this strategy to have a chance at success. This is only further complicated when allies and adversaries have similar and/or conflicting strategies.

This is the source of tension of the types seen in the news at the political and diplomatic levels, a battle of ideology and who is the more capable of achieving their strategy and ergo the more "powerful". Seen through this lens, the why component becomes more apparent. The What is then developed in the campaigns and initiatives that will allow a ruler (gods I guess in this case) to exercise their levers of power (in the Age of Sigmar context, we are talking almost purely military, although occasionally it could be argued some diplomacy is in order... (pun intended...)).

Further, the machinations of the senior military leaders can be more easily discerned to the tactical level by the use of battle plans in the realms and the small vignettes that play out all over the world for the different factions that, ultimately, are attempting, through military might, to achieve the outcomes laid out in the Grand Strategy at the beginning. 

Was that helpful? I do enjoy a good high level strategic discussion. 

[My start with Silver Tower]

Looks great. I like the pink horrors particularly. The Silver Tower models are fun to paint, I had a good time doing mine up.

[Not Enjoying a Model - what to do?]

I suffer this as well, generally with models that are very samey all over (my worst experience were Ard Boyz...). I ended up shelving them and working on some models that inspired me back to a suitable level to start the grind again. Rinse and Repeat. Easiest way to get through regiments of stuff. Most fun unit to paint were the Forsaken. So much character and variety.

[Why Do We Hobby?]

20 hours ago, Gwill_of_the_Woods said:

Escapism!  

With a serious job, it's nice to indulge in a world of elves!

Also a lovely way to express creativity. I'm sure that my wife would agree that it's the quieter of my hobbies, well the painting side. Haha.

Good shout. Escapism is a very good reason as well. And as to the quieter of hobbies, being in a metal band, well...

[Why Do We Hobby?]

When I started out, it was during a pretty dark time in my life. It gave me a chance to involve myself in something, meet people and learn new skills. It helped that some of my best friends had been doing it most of their lives and were able to ease me in gently and were very supportive. In the early days I wanted to be in everything, so I played tournaments, regular weekly game meets and all sorts of other challenges. I painted as therapy and a drive to improve as rapidly as possible and getting back into the community and meeting people like me added to that.

As the years have gone on, I find it waxes and wanes with the amount of games I have. Playing regularly is my motivation to paint, especially for events but even with friends it helps to push it on. I also find the skill development and trying new techniques is very interesting as well. I always enjoyed building models (I started with scale models of planes and cars when I was young) so that aspect is deeply satisfying, seeing something come from a few bits of plastic.

There is no one answer to this question. At various times my reasons change, but in general its for a sense of community and belonging and the opportunity to create something great that keeps me going.