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About this blog

A blog with some basic probability work to answer some of the basic mathhammer questions (like, how many wounds will 5 liberators do against 10 bloodreavers).

Entries in this blog


Most likely result

For this entry we will consider the concept of most likely result, and standard distribution. Most likely result  is important when thinking about the difference between a theoretical result and an experiential result. As an example: a single attack that is 4+ / 4+ versus a model with no save has a mean (often simply described as average) outcome of .25 wounds. Needless to say you will never roll .25 wounds. Instead what is the most likely result? Clearly 0 wounds as 3 out of 4 times the re




How to calculate a probability

Fundamentally to calculate a probability you need to work out how many possible outcomes there are, how many outcomes represent a desired result, and then doing a fraction based on this. Quick note on jargon: Numerator means the top number on a fraction - therefore with 2/6 the numerator is 2. Denominator is the bottom number on a fraction - therefore with 2/6 the denominator is 6. For a simple example of calculating probabilities: You roll a 6 sided dice, and you want to roll a 4, 5,




A very basic introduction

The intent of this blog is to do some really basic discussion on probability, and how that can inform thinking about your games, and a bit of thinking about how we can model outcomes. First then, what this blog is. I will aim to keep this relatively straightforwards in terms of what I am describing, and I will aim to not use excessive amounts of jargon or technical terms. Although I intend to focus on Age of Sigmar most of the logic is applicable to any dice rolling game and I would like to
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