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About this blog

A blog with some basic probability work to answer some of the basic mathhammer questions (like, how many wounds will 5 liberators do against 10 bloodreavers).

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Most likely result

For this entry we will consider the concept of most likely result, and standard distribution. Most likely result  is important when thinking about the difference between a theoretical result and an experiential result. As an example: a single attack that is 4+ / 4+ versus a model with no save has a mean (often simply described as average) outcome of .25 wounds. Needless to say you will never roll .25 wounds. Instead what is the most likely result? Clearly 0 wounds as 3 out of 4 times the re
mhsellwood

mhsellwood

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How to calculate a probability

Fundamentally to calculate a probability you need to work out how many possible outcomes there are, how many outcomes represent a desired result, and then doing a fraction based on this. Quick note on jargon: Numerator means the top number on a fraction - therefore with 2/6 the numerator is 2. Denominator is the bottom number on a fraction - therefore with 2/6 the denominator is 6. For a simple example of calculating probabilities: You roll a 6 sided dice, and you want to roll a 4, 5,
mhsellwood

mhsellwood

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A very basic introduction

The intent of this blog is to do some really basic discussion on probability, and how that can inform thinking about your games, and a bit of thinking about how we can model outcomes. First then, what this blog is. I will aim to keep this relatively straightforwards in terms of what I am describing, and I will aim to not use excessive amounts of jargon or technical terms. Although I intend to focus on Age of Sigmar most of the logic is applicable to any dice rolling game and I would like to
mhsellwood

mhsellwood

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