Can Nagash survive an alpha strike?

[WillofNagash]

Have a question for you guys,  how much damage could an army put out in an alpha strike? Trying to gauge the chances of Nagash surviving alpha strike. Wondering specifically about sky fires, and maybe KO alpha strike. Anything you could think of that would come out and touch you first turn?

[Aginor]

You should shield him with cheap units like skeletons or zombies so he cannot be sniped that easily. If you fail to do so I can imagine a few forces that would be able to kill him in one round, but it is hard.

Seraphon with a teleporting fully buffed Dread Saurian (Curse of Fates,  Starlight, Celestial Rites to make the charge, Serpent Staff for potential 2d6 damage on one attack, Mystic Shield, and using his rerolls because Nagash is a monster) accompanied by a Shadowstrike  could do the job. Also might survive a round of battle against Nagash thanks to a Slann unbinding his killer spell with a bit of luck.

 

SCE, Kharadron or Tzeentch could also pull it off I guess, can't tell because I don't know those armies so well.

But if you put enough chaff around him it isn't that much of a problem I think.

[WillofNagash]

9 hours ago, Aginor said:

potential 2d6 damage on one attac

Just looked at the scroll and the 2d6 is for the amount of attacks, the d6 is the amount of wounds it can do.

[Nico]

KO will drop him trivially. He's a lot better vs Skyfires due to the 4++ vs Mortals. Also outdropping a Skyfire list isn't impossible.

[fued]

if he can get a turn, very hard to alpha strike him.

 

if he doesnt get mystic shield/command ability, some armies can drop him quite easily. 

[WillofNagash]

57 minutes ago, Nico said:

KO will drop him trivially. He's a lot better vs Skyfires due to the 4++ vs Mortals. Also outdropping a Skyfire list isn't impossible.

How much damage we talking? And what range?

[Aginor]

3 hours ago, WillofNagash said:

Just looked at the scroll and the 2d6 is for the amount of attacks, the d6 is the amount of wounds it can do.

That's why I wrote fully buffed. His natural damage is d6 but with Serpent Staff buff on him he has the CHANCE of doing 2d6 with one attack since Serpent Staff causes double damage on any Bite or Jaws attacks rolling a six.    (Starpriest warscroll)

The Curse of Fates spell by the Starseer (or a Slann using the command trait)  allows the Dread Saurian to improve the chance for a roll of six.

With its rend of -3 those four attacks (which are hit 3 and wound 3 and rerolling rolls of 1, both for hit and wound) are pretty likely to make a dent in Nagash's armor.
I haven't done the math precicely, only in my head, but that has to mean that roughly half of those attacks cause wounds and one of them is a five or six, the average of 2d6 + d6 is 10, so 10 wounds caused and Nagash's ward save will reduce that by one or two,  so the four Jaws attacks may make 9 wounds, leaving the 2d6 Claws attacks that will cause another two or three wounds at least.

So if you roll a bit above average Nagash can be killed by a buffed Dread Saurian in one round.

 

...and yeah someone should really do the math properly, I don't have much time at the moment to do it.

[Nico]

All the damage in the world at at least 15" range.

[Nico]

All the damage in the world at at least 15" range.

[Aezeal]

On 19-10-2017 at 10:13 PM, Aginor said:

You should shield him with cheap units like skeletons or zombies so he cannot be sniped that easily. If you fail to do so I can imagine a few forces that would be able to kill him in one round, but it is hard.

Seraphon with a teleporting fully buffed Dread Saurian (Curse of Fates,  Starlight, Celestial Rites to make the charge, Serpent Staff for potential 2d6 damage on one attack, Mystic Shield, and using his rerolls because Nagash is a monster) accompanied by a Shadowstrike  could do the job. Also might survive a round of battle against Nagash thanks to a Slann unbinding his killer spell with a bit of luck.

 

SCE, Kharadron or Tzeentch could also pull it off I guess, can't tell because I don't know those armies so well.

But if you put enough chaff around him it isn't that much of a problem I think.

A big Dreadwood scythehunter alpha strike backed up by Allarielle if she makes the charge.

[Goddin]

To kill Nagash you need 32 mortal wounds or 48 regular wounds on the alphastrike before he gets mystic shield.  A celestial vindicators SCE army can do that with laughable ease.   

In range will be a unit of 10 Retributors backed by a unit of 10 Protectors.

8xD3 mortal wounds inflicted at first just from the starsoul maces.  That gets us half way there (averages out to 16 mortal wounds, half of which would be saved).

Back up the group with a Celestant on Foot who was lighning chariot-ed in to range to buff everyone (or dropped with the SCE allegiance ability).  The remaining 6 Retributors are doing 8 more mortal wounds with their hammers (12 attacks, 2 mortal wounds per hit roll of 5 or 6).  So we are talking 24 mortal wounds on Nagash, which turns to 12 of his wounds after his 4 up save.

The retributors will likely be putting in another 12 wounds against his save with rend -1, so a 4 up save against those.  The remaining protectors we have 19 more attacks coming in hitting on 2s, wounding on 3s rend -1.  We are talking 10 more wounds with a rend -1 on average BUT WAIT if any of those were a wound roll of 6 it is D6 damage instead.  Also the Prosecutors can throw a few hammers at him as can the celestant's cloak.

All of this has no charge roll to fail, just a 3+ for dropping in the celestant.  Also, it's a 1 drop list.

I would expect to kill Nagash on the first turn unless he was bubblewrapped a couple inches deep.

 

[Tubs]

A Murderhost with double priest buffed unit of letters in banner and crown range would put him down no worries. He’s tough vs mortal wounds. Ko with buffed Skywardens and Riggers would probably be the easiest way

[WillofNagash]

So bubble wrapped, probably only KO can take him out, anything else?

[Requizen]

Most of these are talking about hitting him with a melee alpha strike - I wouldn't run Nagash without at least 80-120 Skellies/Zombies/Ghouls (dealer's choice) surrounding him and stopping exactly that sort of thing. Death has access to some of the cheapest, most durable (by points) Battleline options in the game, there's no reason that Nagash should be just standing there on his own eating a charge for free.

[Black_Fortress_Immortal]

Bubblewrap with a horde.  It's not that hard to prevent Retributors/Protectors from bombing in 1st turn.  Sure they're going to decimate some skeletons/zombies, but oh well, that's what they're there for.