Unit vs Unit

[Beliman]

Hi ppl.

A friend of a friend asked me some questions about AoS (mainly gameplay). The thing is that they don't know anything about the lore or the game itself, but they have a lot of AoS miniatures. They know the units, models, weapon loadouts, names, etc... and I know that they have a really old gaming group.

After talking a bit with one of them, he asked for a "what if" unit fights another unit, without taking in consideration their warscrolls, just only what I think  about this units. Another thing to take in mind is that there isn't a unit charging, attacking first or with high initiative, that's part of the main units (high movement means that they probably are the ones charging, etc...). So, the main 2 questions:

1. How many models should die in each fight? 
2. Who should win each fight (add anything that can decide the fight, battleshock phase, moral tests, sweeping advance, etc)

And the contenders are:

• 5 Liberators (weapon and shield) vs 5 Chaos Warriors (weapon and shield).

• 5 Liberators (2 1-handed weapons) vs 10 Goblins (spear and shield).

• 5 Liberators (weapon and shield) vs 10 witch Aelfs Brujas (two daggers).

• 5 Liberators (weapon and shield) vs 10 Vulkite Berzerks (two 1-handed weapon).

• 5 Liberators (weapon and shield) vs 10 Arkanaut Companies (sword and gun).

• 5 Vindictors (spear and shield) vs 5 Chaos Warriors (weapon and shield).

• 5 Vindictors (spear and shield) vs 5 Centigors (spear and rodela).

• 10 Vanari Auralan Guard (Spear and shield) vs 10 witch Aelfs Brujas (two daggers).

• 10 Goblins (spear and shield) vs 10 Clan rats Skavens (spear)

• 5 Liberators (weapon and shield) vs 5 Brutos Orruk (two 1-handed weapons)

• 3 Annihilators (weapon and shield) vs 5 Orruk Brutes (one 2-handed weapon).

• 3 Annihilators (one 2-handed weapon) vs 20 goblins (spear and shield)

• 10 Mortek Guard (spear and shield) vs 10 witch Aelfs Brujas (two daggers).

• 10 Mortek Guard (spear and shield) vs 10 Vanari Auralan Guard (Spear and shield)

 

[NinthMusketeer]

Well to determine who 'should' win, or to put differently what the baseline expectation would be, one simply needs to run the numbers. Calculate the average damage output on the initial swing, then the average damage what what would survive to swing back, and so on.

The difficulty being that would be the average result in a vacuum. As an old friend of mine once said 'there is a reason we roll dice and play the game rather than compare lists and do math to figure out the winner'. Luck hates the average result XD

[Beliman]

12 hours ago, NinthMusketeer said:

Well to determine who 'should' win, or to put differently what the baseline expectation would be, one simply needs to run the numbers. Calculate the average damage output on the initial swing, then the average damage what what would survive to swing back, and so on.

The difficulty being that would be the average result in a vacuum. As an old friend of mine once said 'there is a reason we roll dice and play the game rather than compare lists and do math to figure out the winner'. Luck hates the average result XD

Yes of course. But the point is, in your opinion, what should be the result of each fight? E.g:

19 hours ago, Beliman said:

3 Annihilators (weapon and shield) vs 5 Orruk Brutes (one 2-handed weapon).

A Horus Heresy players probably see Annihilators as Terminators with Cataphractii armor, and Brutes have Choppas that remind me about Chainaxe. Dice gods are still there, but we are probably talking about 0 terminators down, even with the high volume of Brute Attacks after charging. Annihilators can probably kill at least one Brute but it will be enough because Orcs usually have low bravery and that means that the whole unit will fall back.

Someone that plays Conquest or Asoiaf probably expect a lot more models killed, and 3vs5 it's not a fair fight. That feels like Annihilators will lose in maybe a few rounds of combat, even with shields. The Orruk models are scary with that big choppas and they feel like they have some type of armour penetration/rend/etc... that can counter the shields, so maybe Brutes win in 2 rounds of combat because Annihilators have a low model count.

Someone that never played any Warhammer game probably see Brutes and Annihilators as the same type unit for each army, so a draw could be fine. The problem is that one uses shield, so maybe that means that's a defensive unit, and Brutes has two 1-handed weapons, that usually means more attacks to kill a lot of weak models. So probably Annihilators should win because even if they don't have a big scary weapon, brutes came to fight with the wrong weapon.

I didn't run AoSstathammer to see the actual result, but that's not the point that I was trying to make.

[JackStreicher]

Puh I could make that test with my gf later (she knows most units by their look but doesn’t know how powerful each is).

no promises though

You could make a google survey, would male it easier to answer.

Edited August 1, 2023 by JackStreicher

[NinthMusketeer]

Annihilators vs Brutes is easy; the winner is the one who charges. And that will probably be Annihilators when they drop down 9" away, likely dealing MWs, and charge with a re-roll, likely popping 1-2 brutes from that alone. At the end of the ensuing combat the brutes are at a real risk of battleshock failure, the Annihilators aren't.

The matchups with Goblins listed, we really need specification of which unit. There are a lot of grot units and they are not at all equal!

Edited August 1, 2023 by NinthMusketeer

[Beliman]

On 8/1/2023 at 6:03 PM, NinthMusketeer said:

The matchups with Goblins listed, we really need specification of which unit. There are a lot of grot units and they are not at all equal!

My bad! They are Stabbas with only 10 models instead of MSU 20.

So, my take on who should win. I based my opinion on the models, basic wargaming structure (mainly what other games do with spears/shields/small weapons/heavy weapons/etc...) and a bit of lore (take in mind that's it's hard to balance because Liberators can be taken down by goblins or win a war by themself).

• 5 Liberators (weapon and shield) vs 5 Chaos Warriors (weapon and shield).

  • Draw. The one that charge could have an edge but both units move the same so it's up to Dice gods or whatever buffs/battle traits they use.

• 5 Liberators (2 1-handed weapons) vs 10 Goblins (spear and shield).

  • Liberators Win. Goblins are not that strong in melee, even if they double the numbers of enemy units, and Liberators have the tools for the right job (aka, double weapon for double attacks). This fight will probably end in one round of combat.

• 5 Liberators (weapon and shield) vs 10 witch Aelfs (two daggers).

  • Probably win for Witch Aelves. Liberators can deal with Aelves but the witches are faster, so they should be the ones charging. Daggers are not good enough for full armoured with shields elite units, but the sheer number of attacks can kill 1 or even 2 liberators on the charge. In return, Liberators can probably kill 2 or 3 witches but it shouldn't be enough to survive the next rounds of combat. Theis engage should end in 2 rounds of combat, or witches are going to run low on damage.

• 5 Liberators (weapon and shield) vs 10 Vulkite Berzerks (two 1-handed weapon).

  • Heavy loses for both sides and probably a draw in the end. The combat will mirror the Witch Aelves, but Liberators should be the ones charging and killing a few Vulkites, taking down their damage. In return, vulkites with 2 one-handed weapons don't have the weapons to take down high armored units, and the combat will take 4 or more rounds with both sides slowly going down in numbers and damage.

• 5 Liberators (weapon and shield) vs 10 Arkanaut Companies (sword and gun).

  • Liberators win. Liberators are well preparred for small arms fire, and they are going to be the ones charging. The Overwtach can probably kill 1 liberator but after that, the combat will end badly for Arkanauts because a sword and a pistol should not be good vs Shielded and high armor units, and they don't have enough defensive stats to survive. Probably 3 or even 4 rounds of combat, because Arkanauts have the numbers and are still duardins.

• 5 Vindictors (spear and shield) vs 5 Chaos Warriors (weapon and shield).

  • Same as Liberators vs Chaos Warriors. Even if the Chaos Warriors are going to charge, spears can take down any charge bonus. It's up to the Dice Gods.

• 5 Vindictors (spear and shield) vs 5 Centigors (spear and rodela).

  • Vindictors Win. They have the best loadout to take down charging units with low armor, and that's exactly what Centigors should be.

• 10 Vanari Auralan Guard (Spear and shield) vs 10 witch Aelfs Brujas (two daggers).

  • Vanari Auralan Win. Witch Aelves are glass cannons, and are perfect to kill low strength/low armor units, but Vanari are a counter for charging units and have shields to take down daggers damage. Witch Aelves can't take the hit and they need all the momentum they gain from their charge, but after the charge, Vanari are going to kill more models each round of combat and win the fight in the end. Maybe 2 to 3 rounds of combat.

• 10 Moonclan Stabbas (spear and shield) vs 10 Clan rats Skavens (spear)

  • Moonclan Stabbas should win. Skavens are faster, and probably are the ones that will charge, but Grots have spears and small shields, again, the right tools for the job. After the charge, shielded grots can stay longer in combat. The fight should end when the skavens decide to run away, maybe after 2 rounds of combat.

• 5 Liberators (weapon and shield) vs 5 Orruk Brutes (two 1-handed weapons).

  • Probably a win for Liberators. The combat should be a draw, but two 1-handed weapons are not going to take down Liberators with shields fast enough, and in return, 1 or 2 death orruks are probably going to be enough to make them run away. Liberators are going to lose more models because Brute's weapons are really scary (just look at the model) and have high strength  to kill Liberators, even if their weapons are meh. 3 rounds of combat until 2 liberators makes 3 brutes run away.

• 3 Annihilators (weapon and shield) vs 5 Orruk Brutes (one 2-handed weapon).

  • Win for Orruk Brutes. Annihilators are the epitome of defense, but high strength units with 2-handed weapons should be their perdition. If Annihilators can charge first, they would probably win, but if Brutes are the ones charging, they have the numbers, weapons and strength to counter Annihilators.

• 3 Annihilators (one 2-handed weapon) vs 20 goblins (spear and shield)

  • Win for Annihilators. Goblins don't have the weapons nor the Strength to pass Annihilators armor (TEQ-like units). The combat ends with goblins running away after 3 or 4 rounds of combat.  Annihilators are just 3 models and can't kill enough models to end the combat earlier.

• 10 Mortek Guard (spear and shield) vs 10 witch Aelves Brujas (two daggers).

  • Mortek Guard with heavy loses. Witch Aelves are going to be the ones charging, but the spears and shields should take down that bonus. After that, 2 daggers means a lot of attacks that Mortek are not going to take well, but they have a bit more endurance and will probably make the diference each round. 2 to 3 combat rounds.

• 10 Mortek Guard (spear and shield) vs 10 Vanari Auralan Guard (Spear and shield).

  • Draw. None of them are going to have a good bonus if they charge or a numbers advantage . Lumineth have good skills and are probably faster, but Mortek have good skills too and endurance to take the hit. Aelves and Undeads have high morale, so the combat should be in the hands of Dice Gods.

Edited August 9, 2023 by Beliman

[NinthMusketeer]

I feel as though a slightly larger context of taking into account warscroll & allegiance abilities would be more true-to-tabletop. For example, if the vulkites are charged they will likely pop their 1/game fight-on-death ability that turn. Whereas unless the grots get a good round in to nail em with battleshock, clanrats will win that fight every time by virtue of getting d3 models back per turn. Annihilators should always be considered as the more likely chargers because they are only ever used to charge out of deep strike (with a reroll no less). Mortek guard are almost certainly going to win by attrition thanks to the OBR command to heal themselves.

[Beliman]

37 minutes ago, NinthMusketeer said:

I feel as though a slightly larger context of taking into account warscroll & allegiance abilities would be more true-to-tabletop. For example, if the vulkites are charged they will likely pop their 1/game fight-on-death ability that turn. Whereas unless the grots get a good round in to nail em with battleshock, clanrats will win that fight every time by virtue of getting d3 models back per turn. Annihilators should always be considered as the more likely chargers because they are only ever used to charge out of deep strike (with a reroll no less). Mortek guard are almost certainly going to win by attrition thanks to the OBR command to heal themselves.

Imagine that AoS doesn' have rules, warscrolls or battletomes. 

So, with what you like and know about the game (or other games), and the physical models for each unit, what would be the results of each fight and why?

[NinthMusketeer]

So the question is 'which unit would win each fight speaking only in terms of lore'?

[Beliman]

1 hour ago, NinthMusketeer said:

So the question is 'which unit would win each fight speaking only in terms of lore'?

That's up to you.

I wrote my post based around a mix of games;  Conquest, ASOIAF, Malifaux, Turnip28, Horus Heresy, etc... and I ignored some things about Lore (hard to balance, Liberators can be punchbags or Heroes).

Each one of this games have difetent combat mechanics, but all of them have interesting things that I find coherent, logic and fun to play with. Shield units with spears removing charge bonus, horde units with lots of meh attacks, slow non-lethal combats that usually end with moral tests, hierarchy between elite units and meh units,... stuff like that.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Beliman

[NinthMusketeer]

Hm, I'm still not sure I understand but at this point pretty sure it's on me for that XD

I wish you luck, hopefully others will get it where I did not!

[Gitzdee]

Fun reading this.

I think its worth considering Skaven and Goblins like to use the element of surprise as a weapon and as such should be included when deciding who wins combat.