Opinion piece: Why is GW so successful (in spite of themselves)?

[KrrNiGit]

Why is Warhammer so successful?

 

Games Workshop (GW) is clearly a big company making a lot of money in post brexit Britain (which is no small feat). Is it just because they are fashionable now due to a global pandemic that left people a lot of time to sit around inside with nothing to do? Will their time in the sun fade like ska music did in the summer of ‘97? 

 

As someone who enjoys a number of different games I hear a lot about Warhammer’s flaws; it’s too expensive, it takes too long, it’s too hard to keep up with, etc. Is the only reason they GW is so successful because they are simply the biggest. Being bigger does give you some slack to make up for bad decisions. Being big enough that to ensure that people can access your game and play it is a huge perk. It’s hard to find a game of The Lion Rampant (by Daniel Mersey and Osprey Games), it’s not hard to find a game of 40k. This accessibility also makes it a gateway into the wider hobby. New people are much more likely to see a game of Warhammer being played than some small indy game leading them into the hobby. They didn’t start out big though, no one does. 

 

So how did they get there? What is it about Warhammer (both 40k and AoS) that is keeping GW on top? Or are they just a miniatures company with a game tacked on as an excuse to sell models? GW don’t just make models anymore, they are an IP company. The worlds of AoS and 40k are as much a product as the physical miniatures that the company produces. These intangible things are at the heart of what makes Warhammer, Warhammer. In recent times GW have begun to start marketing their IP and sell licences but they don’t really seem to invest in their IP as much. The biggest real investment of recent memory was the fleshing out of the Horus Heresy, which was led by the “outsider” studio (ForgeWorld) and then nearly fell apart when the person driving it died (RIP Alan Bligh). This led to tons of books, a spin off game and the sale of a lot of models for GW and it all seemed to happen almost by accident. In the past GW creatives invented worlds that were gritty, dark and silly that resonated with people, their artists made cool pieces that captivated and affected their audience. Alongside miniature making these were pillars of the companies output. They were what differentiated Warhammer from the competition. While the money GW made directly from this world building art pails in comparison to the models sold, I doubt they would have sold half as many models without them. Things might be turning around now as GW has a living narrative for both games. I would love to see how much time was given to these teams to invest in the IP compared to the amount of time GW invests in a new miniature.

 

GW is a miniatures company – Kirby

 

If they are only the best because their miniatures are the best, why do they need a game at all? I personally have bought miniatures not because they were pretty but because I wanted to use them in the game (I have also bought miniatures because they were pretty... and because I was bored... I think I might have a problem). I am sure many people have. After all buying and painting 200 monopose goblins is not an aesthetic choice. And GW do make very pretty models, and those models are a big part of their success. But they aren’t the only part. The games they produce have had an incredible impact on the history of wargaming. They have had a large part in shaping the hobby into what it is today. So what is it about Warhammer as a game that has led to this success?

 

But why???

 

I am going to generalise about 40k and AoS together here. Both games are similar in scope, ruleset and play experience (I know that is blasphemy to some, but those people need to get out and try a game by any other company).  Both games take roughly the same time to play, have the same amount of models on the board in the same scale and provide the same type of experience.

 

These games are BIIIIG. The amount of miniatures required by each is significant. People do not rock up to play with a handful of models but entire suitcases full of them. The amount of money, time and effort just to play is considerable. You could spend hundreds of hours preparing before even playing a game. This is not true for all games. You can build and paint 3 or 4 figures and play Marvel Crisis Protocol, you can buy a few blisters of x-wing and play straight out of the box. Even other army games like CMON’s ASOIAF does not require the effort before you can play that Warhammer does. While this effort might be a hurdle to some people getting into the game, it is also a hurdle for those of us already in it. It’s the sunk cost fallacy but in miniature form. If we’ve invested so much time and effort to just play, why abandon it for another game, even if the actual experience you have playing Warhammer is kinda meh? The amount of time you spend playing is not a concern for GW. GW gets their money when you buy into the game, if people buy in and then abandon Warhammer they have still got money out of them. 

 

These games are LOOONG. It would not be unusual for a 2000 point game to go for 3 hours. That’s a long time. I am a boring individual, I do not have a lot going in my life  and even I struggle to find time for a game of Warhammer (though I have enough time to write these silly articles). Most of its competitors’ games are shorter. Much shorter. Most aim for an hour to 90 mins as their ideal length. For me I think that’s a much better game length than the 3 hours a game of Warhammer needs. What 3 hours does give you is an epic experience. It might be epically dull, but still epic. It also lets you share more time with your opponent. While games of Warhammer are more interactive now than they used to be, needing both players to engage in the game, there is still time for banter alongside the play. It is not always a consistent game play experience, but at times stressful, exciting, boring and quiet. It can be a half decent game, but more importantly it is a good space for a social interaction between two people. In a tighter ruleset that keeps both players fully engaged in what is going on the table does not leave the space for mindless banter as Warhammer does. That can come afterwards. In Warhammer it’s that inconsistent pacing that allows for the social experience that other tighter games don’t have. I am not saying that quicker games do not allow people to properly socialise but rather it’s the difference between speed dating and going out for dinner. You get to know a lot of people a little when you play fast but when you slow it down you have the chance to get to know one person a lot (it’s just a pity if they’re a ******).

 

GW is a lifestyle, not a hobby. They produce multiple articles every day on their website. They release new models every week. They produce content for us to consume, to talk about, to think over. They produce content for other content creators to create even more content with. Warhammer can fill up all the hours of your day just thinking about it before you even get to sitting down to paint or play. There is a world of us who live this lifestyle. Enough to keep all those lovely leaky content creators employed. No other wargame creates as much content to keep its followers distracted from the sad reality of living right now than Warhammer does. The large majority of GW content is not made or controlled by GW. That is playing with fire. GW’s IP is a core pillar of their business and leaving it to the cabal of content creators seems crazily risky to me.

 

So what should GW do to stay the biggest fish in our niche hobby pond? While the factors above are key in making Warhammer, Warhammer I will admit they feel more like “unintended features” than bugs... sometimes you just get lucky. I think they should double down on these “flaws” in the Warhammer experience. Rather than putting these down as accidental outcomes of past decisions, own them and make them the core of what it means to Warhammer going forward. 

 

James Workshop for a day

James Workshop (aka Steve Conlin - twitter @stevpendous)

 

If I was James Workshop for a day I would:

1.       Realise that IP is a pillar of the company and invest in the IP. Background writers, novelists, artists, creatives should be well paid. The best writers and artists should want to work for GW, not only because they loved the IP as a kid, but because this is where the best IP in the industry is made. Creative people become passionate about whatever they create. GW should want to attract the best to come and participate in their IP not just accept those passionate enough to except the poor conditions on offer.

2.       Promote and support the stepping stones to playing Warhammer fully. Kill-team and Combat Patrol can give people the excuse to buy a little, and then a little more, leading them to play full on 40k and end up with thousands of dollars of sunk hobby fallacy. GW should understand that process, have it mapped out and use it as their recruitment toolset in all their stores. At the moment that process feels haphazard for 40k and non-existent in AoS.

3.       Not change how the games are played. The games are a means to have a shared social experience with another player, to have fun with another human being. This would be the measure that I would put against the ruleset, not whether it was competitive, balanced or modern. Leave the clean, efficient, well written, modern rulesets to the other games companies. We are making Warhammer and when you play you are going to have a Warhammer experience. The rulesets are the means to a Warhammer experience, not the ends of one.

4.       Invest in the lifestyle. Warhammer plus was a great idea, then they hid it behind a paywall. That content should be free on the internet. GW need to invest in making sure that there is enough Warhammer content that people can live and breathe it and never fully consume it. By leaving it to the community to run it, GW have lost the ability to really steer the lifestyle how they want it.

 

[Hollow]

offt. That was... something. haha. On your final 4 points, I think the fun daydream question of - "What would I do If I was suddenly elected God Emperor of Games Workshop?" is one that a lot of hobbyists like to ask themselves and ponder. I'm frequently scratching my head regarding the choices GW make, but it's so difficult to know if the decisions they make are truly out of whack without access to any actual data. 

1 - They already do. GamesWorkshop has many design legends (like Jes) working at their studio compromised of over 1500 people. I know a lot of people like to give GW ******, but their pay structures are actually pretty decent. Their bonus, reward and stock structures are fairly robust. 

2 - Are you seeing the same thing I am seeing? I don't think so. Kill Team has become massive, with frequent releases. I think GW understands fairly well that they need their gateway drugs. I'm not sure how they haven't "planned it out" in your eyes as they have literally just released a full roadmap, a new starter set, new teams, and previewed upcoming teams. They created a full CGI trailer for the DeathKorp/Ork box and gave the entire system a full preview at Warhammerfest. 

3 - GamesWorkshop literally makes 10's of millions of pounds annually from published materials containing rules alone. I agree that they need to be refined but this isn't Chess or another board game. A single stagnant set of rules isn't going to cut it. 

4 - Warhammer+ should 100% be getting 100x the investment it is currently getting, but I am holding off jumping the gun on this one until we hear about what Amazon/GW/Cavill are up to. I still think that Warhammer+ was essentially a proof of concept that could lead to a deal worth 100's of millions pounds. 

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Hollow

[zilberfrid]

Games Workshop is big because Games Workshop is big.

On one hand it's easier to find a game of Kill Team/40K/AoS/Warcry than Space weirdos/Stargrace/Conquest/OPR.

On the other hand because they have all the things for the hobby, which makes it less daunting to start.

They do have very talented designers and make good lore (on average), so that really helps.

[KrrNiGit]

Yes, this was all my opinion from no real data just what I’ve seen from outside. Hopefully it was an enjoyable read at least.

when I have compared GW salaries in my own field they were well below the market average. And from outside I don’t see how they would compete for people who don’t already have a love for the hobby. It’s not that GW doesn’t value these people, I just think they could value them more. Again as an outsider looking in.

I also think GW are supporting killteam because it makes money. It seems like an accidental success rather than an intentional gateway into the hobby. Especially when you compare it to the support Warcry and whatever AoS has for its combat patrol variant. If I was GW I would be pouring money into these no matter if they were making it back or not.
 

Again from outside it all seems rather “accidental” 

[EccentricCircle]

The answer kind of lies in the concept of "network externalities" .

Essentially th e value of a tt game to the end user gets higher the more other users there are. One telephone is useless, two can be handy, but has limited utility. A million telephones though? Now we're talking!

because of this, the bigger a game the more accessible it becomes, and the more it grows. Games bigger than a certain threshold enter  positive feedback loop, i increasing their market share, while those below it enter a negative feedback where just maintaining their popularity takes a lot of work. The fact that market share is a bit of a zero sum game also helps.

GW doesn't need to be best. They just need to be biggest. But how did they get to be biggest in the first place?

First by genuinely being good. Warhammer lore hit the ground running with some massively talented writers, sculptors, artists and game designers making a really compelling world. That made them stand out from other fantasy properties at the time and the legacy of that still serves them well to this day.

But just as importantly they did it "first". Sure historical war games were around, fantasy was popular and D&D was taking America by storm, but GW put all those things together to create something that was pretty unique. They made a fantasy game more accessible than Chainmail and the handful of medieval wargames that were around at the time. By putting fantasy and sci fi front and centre they captured a new demographic. They cornered the market for a popular accessible fantasy game in the UK and just grew from there.

40k let them capture th sci fi market in the same way they had the fantasy one. More so perhaps. Wfb was always going to be going up against D&D once it broke out of the Uk market. While there have always been many small sci fi games in the tt space, there wasn't really a juggernaut before 40k, and again its dark gritty lore made it stand out too.

They then did it again when they secured the Lord of the Rings license. By combining the most popular wargame with the most famous fantasy IP they were able to break out of the niche hobby of tt gaming altogether for a few years. Those movies gave them  reach which nothing else before or since has. It was the perfect storm of popularity, and cementd their position as the market leader, a position which is now very difficult to dislodge them from.

Warhammer is now a house hold name in a way which nothing else except D&D and Magic can rival. each of those games coexist only because they are different game formats so while they do compete its less of a zero sum game. For another mini focused wargame you really need a strong external ip like star wars or marvel to have a hope of breaking that stranglehold. Even then those games only overtake the leader when the leader messes up ans temporarily loses some of their momentum.

[KrrNiGit]

I really like that telephone analogy. It’s a much cleaner and more elegant way of describing it.

[EccentricCircle]

On 6/23/2023 at 1:58 PM, KrrNiGit said:

I really like that telephone analogy. It’s a much cleaner and more elegant way of describing it.

Thanks!