wargames101

I think that's right. The Stormcast range is pretty well filled out and it seems like it struggles to sell at times (The Stormcast Battleforces always sell slowly, 2019's is still available, etc.) so a new set of poster elves would make sense. Also, this verbiage from the last LRL update is more forward looking than most such announcements; "These releases complete the initial Lumineth Realm-lords range and round out their tactical toolbox." https://www.warhammer-community.com/2020/09/06/the-will-of-the-mountain/

Could be a Grotbag Scuttler, trying to prevent itself from being pulled away by an airship (or trying to anchor it).

I also wouldn't be terribly surprised if the Sons of Behemat is comprised of the Gargant, Cygor/Ghargon, and a new giant SKU with a few different builds + maybe some chaff unit. As such, maybe the dual box is 2 giants vs. an Ossiasrch-style smattering of half-units?

LOL. I was similarly bothered by "Duel" spelling at first, but softened up eventually as it's *technically* correct, they are dueling after all, and it is clever homophonically, even if only by accident!

A Tzaangor type unit that could cross over into 40K would make a lot of sense given the hints about Fulgrim and the expectation of Noise Marines at some point!

Given the imminent launch of Aether War I thought it might be fun to theorize about what the next dual army box might be. To recap, since August 2017 there have been six of these limited run boxes for the AOS side: Blightwar = Stormcast + Nurgle Daemons Wrath and Rapture = Slanesh Daemons + Khorne Daemons Looncurse = Moonclan Grots + Sylvaneth Carrion Empire = Skaven + Flesh Eater Courts Feast of Bones = Ogor Mawtribes + Ossiarch Bonereapers Aether War = Kharadron Overlords + Tzeentch Daemons/Mortals It stands to reason we'll see a couple more in the next calendar year. The following are the factions that have not yet received the dual box treatment: Order: Fyreslayers, Cities of Sigmar, Idoneth Deepkin, Daughters of Khaine, Seraphon Chaos: Beasts of Chaos, Slaves to Darkness Destruction: Orruk Warclans Death: Nighthaunt (currently part of the starter box), Legions of Nagash My guesses: Fyreslayers vs. Orruks: Both armies from the early days of AoS that could stand a new toy to revive interest. Pointy Elves vs. Beasts of Chaos: GW used a dual box to launch the Ossiarch Bonereapers and to tease Wave 2 of the Genestealer Cult on the 40K side. I'd guess they'll do the same for this new army? Thinking BoC because they're aesthetically distinct and none of the other faction make much sense, but could easily be Orruks. What do you all think?

IIRC, over the last two years, all the battleforces have been available until at least mid-January. As EccentricCircle said, the 40K ones go faster, especially power armor factions. The AoS ones tend to hang out until February or March. There were still Slaves to Darkness forces available at the online retailers until last week! Another comp would be the Apocalypse bundles that came out over the summer. The knight and Tau ones sold out quickly due to relatively high value pieces, but there are still 20+ copies of Eldar, Necron, Mechanicus, and Ork boxes at MiniatureMarket, demonstrating that not all bundles sell out in minutes. The simple fact of diluting demand across 10 SKUs vs. one makes it a more laid back process. Not to mention that they raised prices this year and slightly diminished the savings...

I'd be a little surprised if there isn't a Genestealer Cults Battleforce. They had one the year before last, but much like Gloomspite, they were heavily featured at the start of the year and there have been a host of new kits. You can imagine something like: 1-2 units of Jackals ($110) 1 Alphus ($35) 1 unit of Abberants ($40) 1 Abominant ($30) 1 Ridgerunner as a centerpiece ($50) Any of the 4 blister characters for an HQ ($30) That would be on the higher side, but make the alphus the HQ and you can drop the $30 blister and be right in the ~$260 sweet spot. Plus, this would compliment the GSC Start Collecting box teased in the codex, which includes Acolytes + Hybrids + Goliath + Iconward. This is admittedly a bit of wishcasting...

I work in venture capital, and while it's different than later stage equity analysis, but I think there's a bull case that GW's growth could continue for years to come. I think to believe this case you have to look past the exiting fanbase, the updates to battletomes, etc. and focus on the ways GW is making investments in growth: + GW is collapsing barriers to entry: The development of Kill Team/War Cry are both evidence that the company is aware of two major impediments to starting the hobby — time and money. They've brought the buy-in for the game down from ~$500+ and 3-4 hours to ~$50 and 30-60 minutes. Shadespire/BSF are clearly designed to entice board game and Magic audiences. What once was a dedicated hobby for hardcore grognards is now an approachable hobby experiment for anyone who is creatively inclined and interested in sci-fi and fantasy. + GW is investing heavily in new player development: The smaller formats make the game more inviting, but GW also seems to be investing in school programs, bringing in new customers at the newsstand via Conquest, trade sales teams selling to craft stores and other non-LGS retail. It's unknown if these bets will pan out, but they're smart and the company seems to be rolling them out smoothly. + Reducing stigma via IP: The continued investment in books allows them to get a sense for which kinds of characters and narratives resonate to help and shape the core product offering. More importantly, it creates opportunities for outreach to the broader world of fandom, be it with Marvel comics or the Eisenhorn TV series for HBO. Even a middling success at HBO could draw tens of thousands of new hobbyists into the game pretty easily. Right now wargaming has an incredibly geeky odor, but if Eisenhorn becomes the new Game of Thrones, a lot of the stigma would fall away immediately. + Expansion via Licensing: Wade recently mentioned on Voxcast how new employees often cite their first exposure to Warhammer as coming from one of the many video games bearing the GW license (vs. exposure to WhiteDwarf or HeroQuest for the prior generations). Not only is licensing incredibly helpful in generating contribution margin, it provides exceptional visibility to non-fans. + Addressing the Arts & Craft Market: I think Everchosen and Golden Demon are seen as pretty niche parts of the hobby to many players, but it is a draw for a lot of potential customers who prefer the arts. The store level competition for Everchosen suggest how the creative side could be more amenable to events in the way tournaments serve the gamers. I think it's an especially potent wedge to help bring more women into the hobby. If enough of these investments click, I don't think it's crazy to believe that GW could double in size over the next five or so years. One way to think about — stop comparing GW to other minis games. Stop comparing them to other games period. Start thinking about them as a crafts business. Scrapbooking is a ~$3B industry, and GW scratches a similar itch for a very different demographic. Viewed through that lens, it's not crazy to imagine that GW could get to a £500M revenue run rate. Even if the new audiences don't materialize, I'd still expect healthy growth. GW's limited time boxes seem to show they've learned about the value of "whales" and "dark patterns" from their online compatriots.