Boar
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Posts posted by Boar
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2 hours ago, Ganigumo said:
This is only a good strategy for overperforming armies though. Not working to improve the internal balance of an underperforming book, while trying to improve the external balance, can lead to skew lists being the only thing thats really playable while leaving swaths of the book unplayable.
What is better one viable list or zero? Options in book could be balanced vs each other but produce horrible performance due to all being bad externally. First external than internal sound like sound strategy generally (ofc various caveats apply).
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12 hours ago, Duke of Mousillon said:
Your thoughts on a single gorger? I really don't see gorgers doing much but maybe I am wrong.
It's more of a tech/utility piece. You keep him in reserve to help with battle tactcs. Alternatively sometimes he can be useful in combat for his ability.
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2 hours ago, Frowny said:
15 bow snakes will kill about 1 mournfang in unleash hell. That doesn't sound terrible but then remember it's in your turn while being charged by a dedicated anti-unleash hell unit, and you are still taking real damage.
It's 60% for killing one, still 40% for no personel loss charging one of the best ranged unit in game. And just 1,5% for loss of 2. So you can even use 2 man units to trigger Unleash Hell, screening and other duties and they still have decent dmg
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21 minutes ago, Ganigumo said:
lot of the units in question get mortals on 6s or something similar anyways.
MW on 6s are not magic, they are only on 6s, Sentinels on 5s is different story but f.ex 10 Bow Snakes will struggle to kill even one Mournfang now with Unleash Hell.
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2 hours ago, Frowny said:
Those things are all fine but but why not just have a better save? -1 to wound vs shooting is fine but you could just be -1 to wound all the time with Nurgle. Varanguard are as brave as mournfangs while eating and as fast as them while not eating.
First, Nurgle mark is in melee only. So you could say it's similar, and MF just hav this they don't have to sacrifice as opportunity cost either Khorne or Slaneesh mark buffs.
Second Mournfang offensive output is not dependant so much on them charging (Fellspear VG), and is actually better per point when not charging than any VG. Mournfang with +1 Mv and possibility for +1 to charge in 4 storng unit also have better base mobility. Their effective wounds per point are also not that much in favor of VG.
Don't get me wrong, both as discrete units and per point VG are to some degree better deal, but I don't see their differences as that prononced. Not too mention that their roles are somewhat different.
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3 hours ago, Mutton said:
Does anyone else think Ironguts at 270 is extreme? At that price, even with their warscroll improvements, I think they might be a pass. It's just way too expensive for 16 wounds on a 4+ save. A unit that's already a huge target for opponents. I made this point in the Rumor Thread, but the new Chaos Chosen are 240 points and twice as powerful/resilient as Ironguts.
Seems fine to me on first glance. Ironguts hits harder in melee (vs 2+ save it's closer), crucially have 8" Move vs 5", can proc MW on charge. Yes they have worse survivability than Chosen but not disastrously so. We shall see in future what will be their use cases. Mathhammer only can carry us so far.
EW stands for effective wounds
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8 hours ago, Agent of Chaos said:
3 x DP plus Furies are in a warlord battalion
DP have 10 wounds so they go in Commander battalion slot, so this unfortunately does not work
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If someone is interested, Miscast chance while Drawing on Power is roughly 7,4% (normal one is 2,8%).
For succesive cast attempts in same turn chances to not miscast are as follows:
Also Varanguard can have mixed weapons actually, if you are ****** that likes to roll different profiles that is.
This site can be useful if you are admant on knowing damage of mixed units -> https://aos-statshammer.herokuapp.com/
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2 hours ago, Causalis said:
@Beliman How does the Chaos Lord get -4 Rend??? 😮
And how did he hold an objective that long against shooting? He's only 6 wounds and a 3+ Save without any ward save. Haven't the KO shot him?
I would assume that rend was aquired from Eye of the Gods, as for surviving he can pass wounds onto his retinue on 3+
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6 hours ago, Frowny said:
That is some amazing analysis. Thank you. Unrelatedly i didn't realize saurus knights were that good.
More generally, your tables seem pretty sensitive to the armor of the target and rend of the attacks, and using all out defence or mystic shield. It seems like some of these guys might look way better with those easily available buffs, compared to like zombies or something.
6 hours ago, ChaosUndivided said:I like this deep dive into stats, its all good and well, and perhaps @Boar alluded to this, but the way things look on paper and the way they play out on tabletop dont always jive.
For example the Chosen are units of 5 on what will now be 40mm bases? So even if all 5 reach target they wont all get to fight, reducing their damage output considerably. They have 3up save now so they wont drop like flies against any old shooting but still no mortal wound protection, which by the way Varanguard now have.
So few remarks
Yes generally how it will play will be somewhat different,
I already stated that especially efficencies can be somewhat misleading due to the fact that we play with actual units, and not some blobs for arbitrary amount of points. As for base sizes, just a moment...
What you could also like f.ex. for further analysis and quick reference is "damage effciency per inch of frontage". As that is something that is strenght of various heroes in particular. There is lot of parameters like that, in 2.0 with coherency easier to calculate I had parameter of ZOC (zone of control) efficiency. That gave me cost per inch if unit was deployed in line as chaff/screen, Raptoryx was highest than and thus with their high move they made for quite good screens.
When it comes to Mystic shield etc. those can change it somewhat and benefit to those with already high base save is significantly higher. Here is my table defining various multiplications for purposes of establishing effective wounds that I use for calculations. Simple example is that with 4+ save and rend 0, you will on average need 10 damage to kill 5 wound hero, so multiplication of 2 is used.
SAVE MW RND 0 RND -1 RND -2 7 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 6 1,20 1,20 1,00 1,00 5 1,50 1,50 1,20 1,00 4 2,00 2,00 1,50 1,20 3 3,00 3,00 2,00 1,50 2 6,00 6,00 3,00 2,00 1 6,00 6,00 6,00 3,00 6RR 1,44 1,44 1,00 1,00 5RR 2,25 2,25 1,44 1,00 4RR 4,00 4,00 2,25 1,44 3RR 9,00 9,00 4,00 2,25 2RR 36,00 36,00 9,00 4,00 6R1 1,24 1,24 1,00 1,00 5R1 1,64 1,64 1,24 1,00 4R1 2,40 2,40 1,64 1,24 3R1 4,50 4,50 2,40 1,64 2R1 36,00 36,00 4,50 2,40 In short this is something you have to keep in mind as no single report/chart will be able to capture complexity of system like AoS. Especially as Mystic Shield or AoD use up resources.
Yes Saurus Knights are effcient and with buffs etc. can be pretty punchy, some good players even won something with heavy Saurus Knights lists. Tough they don't scale that well with coherency, but someone can say well they are cheap/efficient and I will risk it. Or rather since they are efficient I can go for some inefficincy and they still will be good. In Koatl's Claw 15 Knights charging (ofc. 5 in back for coherency and best target is large infantry unit) with Serpent Staff and exploding hits from Scarvet can deal 30 dmg, for 330 pts only! Tough it's pretty extreme and unwieldy case, let's be honest. This is one advantage of such charts as sometimes you may find neat things.
Going back to base sizes. Let's look at Boingrot Bounderz in particular as there are 2 things going there.
First while many units are put in as not reinforced, some actually are reinforced. That depends for me on how usually I would use that unit, or I think they could often be used. Which serves to make this data bit more "realistic". It's simply more useful to me when I can look at actual unit as among other things GW likes give out conditional bonuses based on sizes of units, and it's pain.
Second those 10 Boingrotz achieve this efficiency in attack with only 6 Squig Gobs hitting due to their 1" range. No it's not aoutomatic I change it at input level, too much funky rules everywhere, sigh. So base sizes are taken into account. It's not 100% accuracy especially as that would actually need data from games how pile-ins actually happens, and it's not going to happen.
And since we talk about analysis of that chart and it's limits, besides defensive buffs there is also potential for offensive etc. So those Boingrots with Shrooms gain 50% attacks more, however their potential on charge is heavily influenced by impact hits so it won't actually increase by 50%. And since we are with Boingrotz if they are so efficient than why they are not winning everything. Well they are not that good on arguably most important stat in game, Move characteristic which on average is 7 and is actually random.
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45 minutes ago, whispersofblood said:
As an FYI varanguard can't take banners as they don't have a standard bearer.
Thx, fixed
So onto efficiencies:
First a little warning, while efficiency per point can be helpful in analysis you have to remember that actual game is played with discrete units. Hence I actually posted damage per unit not per point few posts back.
Mind that all of this is something that I do for my amusement as I like playing with numbers.
Assumptions:
for melee efficiency:
-save 4+ most common, followed by 3+, than 5+
-in case of charge damage present, it is counted along with regular damage with equal weights (or in other words average of both)
for effective wounds efficiency:
-rend 0 most common, followed by rend -1, followed by MW
-I didn't include Gorebeast chariot MW this time, it is quite peculiary placed in sequence I didn't decide how I am going to treat that yet
-in comparison with other armies you will see mostly units I own
EDIT: and no heroes for now as they behave quite diferently to other units
also top 20 results were aplicable
Charts:
Further comparison just with some Mounted Troops from different armies:
Or just S2D versus some of Soulblight stuff
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15 hours ago, Frowny said:
This is super cool. thank you. Can you add Varanguard with enscorcelled weapons? Those seem like the obvious pick to me. +1 wound on the spears you can get elsewhere and whole the extra rend is great, 5 attacks vs 3 makes them hugely better against most targets. I can't see myself ever taking the spears.
The other one I'd love to see is gorebeast chariots.
Will do. I will try to do some more in depth math dive later (I guess maybe today, or later in the week)EDIT: let's start now actually with 1st episode, more to follow
So this is damage from units (not efficiency per point that will come later) against saves weighted as following:
4+ with weight 3
3+ with weight 2
5+ with weight 1
In essence it is assuming that 4+ saves will be encountered most often etc.
When "hard" is added in table that means it is against flat 2+ save
Charge is with stuff that triggers on charge duh, and special is well, special case for Gorebeast chariot after combat (spoiler it is same amount of MW as regular Chariot on charge on average). No marks etc. taken into account.
UNIT
MELEE
CHARGE
MELEE_HARD
CHARGE_HARD
SPECIAL
Chaos Chosen
11,8
7,4
Chaos Knights
4,6
9,8
2,2
5,8
Chaos Warriors [10 Halberd & Shield]
4,5
2,3
Chaos Chariot
2,0
4,3
0,9
3,3
Ogroid Theridons [GW]
10,7
6,7
Ogroid Theridons [Falchion]
5,7
3,0
Varanguard (Fellspear)
8,4
11,6
5,0
7,7
Varanguard (Ensorcelled)
10,4
5,4
Varanguard (Demonforged)
9,9
6,5
Gorebeast Chariot
2,8
1,2
2,3
That should give overview of what damage to expect from what units with split between normal and hard targets.
So about that Varanguard
We see that Fellspears if they manage charge are best overall, but if they don't they lag behind but not disastrously so. Demonforge appears to be niche weapon vs very hard armor. And Ensorcelled actually is just slightly behind spears in slaughtering common troops. As we can see choice can depend on your playstyle and local meta.
Of note is that due to smaller base number of attacks Fellspear and Demonforge can be more swingy with every success or fail mattering more than in case of Ensorcelled Weapon attacks. The same means however that they benefit more from Khorne Mark.
What about other choices?
In case of charioteers 4+ save is equilibrium point, and greatblade will be better against better armor. With caveat that it is also more vulnerable to -1 to hit like from Grot netters for instance.
For Chaos Warriors (after GV go extinct ofc.) point where 10 Warriors with Murderous Weapons gain advantage over their Halberd wielding cousins is 8 guys in combat.
Chaos Knight champion, well let AoS Stathammer show how it is. If you are thinking of using your Knights as mobile anvil actually giving Flail or Warhammer may be good enough, but probably annoyance as you will have to roll different profile. Due to -1 to hit effects on 4+ to hit hammer and Coalesced everywhere I would be tempted going for flail if I ever considered anything other than Lance.
And if someone wonders about Chaos Lord he still prefers 2 weapons, but difference while smaller is still significant especially against 4+ or lighter armor.
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There is edge case right now that Chosen in host of Everchosen gain Battleline role and thus become GV making them vulnerable to Bounty Hunters. Which Ogroids having 5 wounds are exempt from even if battleline.
Those same 5 wounds give them slightly better capture.
Well +1 Move can sometimes mean something too I guess.
But Warshrine won't protect them, as was mentioned already Demonic Power don't work with those guys, and Banners are for Chosen not for you mr. ogroid.
Though they are quite importantly cheaper, not only than Chosen but than Knights and Warriors as well. This could mean that sometimes they will be included based on remaining points. That may be their niche, besides loooking great of course.
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Chosen actually deal slightly more damage to 2+ saves.
Per point of course Ogroid are somewhat more effcient in offense, but same measure (per 100pts) puts them as quite worse in effective wounds:
Remeber chart has lot of assumptions of baseline situation (regarding enemy saves, incoming damage, charge frequency) for my calcs, and only handful of units entered. So you could say it is presented as is for educational/entertainment purposes
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16 hours ago, Rors said:
It's got some play, pop a unit out of a combat it doesn't want to be in and they can still move and run/charge. Could let you cycle charge with knights, varangaurd or chariots, or Archaons. Or if you teleport a units 9 inches behind the hero to 9 inches in front you have a free 18 + wizards base size of movement, that's a lot if the base is a manticor.
I won't use it personally but I'm sure there's someone with a big brain that can make that work.
If I did try it I think I'd play it simple, use this to effectively redeploy Archaons 9 inches forward Infront of the deployment zone turn one, give him deamonic steed and then alpha strike.
I did not realise initially but it pulls visible unit to caster, that can be really good in some situations. And now I am wondering again if 'move allowed' will be after all FAQed.
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2 hours ago, Grimrock said:
I found one thing for the FAQ, currently the spell from the Mark of Tzeentch doesn't have any limitation on moving after setting the unit up. It's possible that it was intended as the Mark of Tzeentch is pretty useless otherwise, but that spell is bonkers as is.
It's only 9" range where you can set up unit, dunno if this is bonkers. No restriction on move afterwards seem like intended move on GWs part
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Depends on rest of list honestly, if rest does not have enough raw damage maybe switch some to cannons. Drills are kinda like sniper rifles in that they can augment rest of combat formation but need that raw damage and bodies to function as part of whole.
Tough if high saves are common (on high value targets) where you play you might as well stay on all drills
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No autokill of >=10 wounds models anymore by Purple Sun, instead D6+6 MW
EDIT: and 90pts now
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Hand cannons are awesome, Hussite inspired army here I go 😄
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1 hour ago, Beliman said:
Let me understand the new Underworlds band for AoS:
SO, dogs with 2 wounds, save 3+ and ward of 5+ and a crossbow that hit like a KO canon. WOW
Look like they mixed saves between the two, so 5+ should go on hunters and 3+ on hero
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7 hours ago, Beliman said:
We can look at Drekki Flynt Warscroll!!
Quite cool and fluffy, more on fun side than competitive, but still can be quite powerful in some situations. IMO good warscroll design, there is some jank tough like Frigate can already reroll runs.
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9 minutes ago, Gothmaug said:
DOes that mean he benefits from the Legion of Blood's buff to unmounted Vampire lords? Or does it have to say Vampire Lord in the Unit Name?
Regardless he cannot have subfaction keyword, first paragraph of warscroll
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3 hours ago, Beliman said:
Take in mind that in 2.0, triumphs could be used by anyone, but to take them, you needed to had less points than your oponent.
There was nothing about using it per se. It was de facto rolled into picking triumph, but there were no universal rules that would block using and now there are. Restrictions in 2.0 came from what triggers were written in triumph texts.
Right now everyone plays it by arguably RAI, ie. eligible use only pertaining to those triggers on triumph. But RAW well it gets interesting
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5 hours ago, Rors said:
Anyone's experience running them with the new rules would be appreciated.
While GV gives them a bit of boost in terms of damage, they will often die twice as fast vs enemy Bounty Hunters, this is big. My brother's Saurus Warriors were actually winning atrition combat yesterday vs my Chaos Warriors, and they cost less. Tough I will note my play and list wasn't the best, and his was better optimised.
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AoS 2 - Slaves to Darkness 2 Discussion
in Chaos
Posted
App will be updated after general release