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Ineffectual Clawlord

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  1. Ineffectual Clawlord
    You, dear reader, might have heard that Monks have been reworked and that you, dear reader, should be furious. How furious? Let's take a look.
    AoS_Skaven_Warscroll_card_Plague_Monks.pdf
    Edit: fixed the stave damage. A sad day, as it appears I can't read.
    How much damage does it do?
    Comparison Staff (30 models) vs. Blades (20 models)
    Save    Staff charge    Blades charge     Staff no charge     Blades no charge
    2          8.33                 6.96                     5.56                        4.63
    3         16.67                13.89                   11.11                     9.26    
    4          25                    20.83                   16.67                      13.89
    5          33.33               27.78                   22.22                     18.52  
    6          41.67               34.72                   27.78                     23.15      
    -           50                    41.67                   33.33                     27.78
     
    Alright, you mutter, but we used to do more, didn't we?
    How much damage did we lose?
    (Foetid Blades, 30+ bonus applied, damage per model)
    Save   Old Charge  New Charge Old no charge  New no charge
    2          .46                .35                  .31                   .25
    3          .83               .69                   .56                   .46
    4          1.2               1.04                .8                      .69
    5          1.57             1.39                1.05                 .93
    6          1.94             1.74                 1.3                   1.16
    -            2.22            2.08                 1.48                 1.39
    Between 10% (vs 6+) and 24% (vs 2+) for Blades. Particularly for higher saves PM lost a lot of their effectiveness, which has implications for list building (see below).
     
    Now that you have dried your eyes, i hear you sobbing about staves, which were always stronger on the charge.
    Do I have to change my staves now?
    The basic problem is similar to the classic sword vs. spears debates: one has lower damage but 2" reach. It all boils down to a simple ratio: how many staves do I need to get into combat to break even with blades.
    As a rule of thumb: 25% more.
    Losing the 30+ bonus doesn't change this ratio, losing the 20+ bonus means the ratio shifts to 34%, but at this point this is only theoretical, as you won't have problems fitting <20 25mm bases into combat.
    How can I change the ratio?
    By affecting the hit-roll, as it is the only difference between the profiles. Having a worse chance to hit, staves profit more from re-rolls and +to hit (but also suffer more from - to hit).
    Corruptor CA:   10% more
    Vigordust Injector: they now have the same profile, and every additional model is a damage bonus.
     
    So when do I choose staves?
    If you want to use Vigordust or the Corruptor on your PM, then this is a very strong option, as you should easily get those additional models in. Otherwise, getting 25% extra models in requires you to keep enough of them alive so that it matters.
     
    So... change them?
    That depends. The difference, in most cases, isn't dramatic. Blades are, as before the safer option, while staves have higher damage potential.
     
    You read all this, but your grumbling does not cease.
    How does this compare to our other options?
    100 pt damage efficiency vs. 4+ save. (What is the problem with this metric? )
    Plague Monks:   charge     14.9
                          no charge     9.9
    Stormvermin                        6.6              (extra attack: 9.8)
    Rat Ogors/Wolf Rats          4.7             (Moulder buff + Rabid Crown: 7.9)
    Acolytes                                3.5              (MMMWP + Spark: 11.7)
    Censer Bearers                    8.3                (PM nearby, charge)
    Night Runners                     3.2               (40 shots, 20 melee attacks)
     
    Dispirited by our lack of options, anxiously you ask:
    What about my Furnace?
    Given the price advantage of now 40 points to the Bell, it's worth asking by how much the damage is increased. (per model, vs. 4+ save)
                                         charge               (% increase)                    no charge             (% increase)
    re-wound
    Blades                        1.04 -> 1.32          (27)                                .69 -> .88             (28)
    Staves                           .83 -> 1.06            (28)                                .56 -> .7               (25)
    + attack
    Blades                          1.04 -> 1.39         (34)                                 .69 -> 1.04           (34)
    Staves                           .83 -> 1.11           (34)                                 .56 -> .83             (48)
     
    Noteworthy increases, although not amazing when compared to e.g. MMMWP, which for SF or Acolytes more than doubles the damage. The Furnace is a good option if you want the additional battleshock immunity, but is by no means mandatory.
     
    Seeing you lie on the floor like a fainted goat, I ask myself:
    How does this change list building?
    The change definitely emphasized the role of PM as a destroyer of the poor and downtrodden, aka the blokes without armour. Before they actually had enough damage output to just crack open all but the most hardened (2+, 3+ re-rollable) armour, now they will struggle a lot more. This makes it even more important to combine them with high rend and mortal wounds.
    Being the sophisticated creatures that Skaven players are, most mixed lists already did this anyway. I feel that with the small price increases we have to deal with, double PM lists are still an option, but probably more matchup dependent. A typical 20-20-20 Clanrats + 40-40 PM list might want to drop one group and include 20 CR and 15 Acolytes/3 Ratling Guns.
    Personally I'll take a look on how the meta develops in the future, but want to test replacing one group of PM with a group of  Warpfire-Ratling-Doomflayer Stormfiends , as they now seem to be more in line regarding their damage output.
     
    Conclusion: did we die and is this hell?
    I like to rant about GW's design decisions and arcane reasoning as well as the next man, but this was actually well done. As a Skaven player of course I would have preferred a less harsh penalty (e.g. a better on 6 ability), and this will hurt pure Pestilens lists a lot, which were already among the lower performing lists.
    They did achieve their goal of making PM vastly less annoying to play, and especially play against, while also not ruining the unit or necessitating a switch to one or the other gear option. For this they do deserves respect.
    It might have been nice though not only to have been beaten with the stick, but to have been offered a carrot afterwards. Half the units being essentially never played, with another bunch being one the fringe, it would have been nice to see some price reductions. Lowering Rat Ogors to 90 pt would not have broken the faction, but allowed them to be a viable alternative. Alas, maybe the next GHB will ease the pain of our brothers Eshin, Moulder and Verminous.
  2. Ineffectual Clawlord
    With quite possibly some major points changes looming around the corner, I wanted to paint a picture of what Skaven units are used in tournaments currently (i.e. since the last major change in the summer). Therefore, I checked events on tabletop.to with more than 15 participants and noted which units were used. I did find 74 different lists, however I wasn't interested in who did well or what the top lists were. Rather my interest was what people felt comfortable bringing to a tournament. The following list shows if a unit was included, not how often.
    It is of course not exhaustive and I'm quite certain that I made mistakes here and there, but nonetheless I feel confident that this provides pretty good picture.
    Unit                        absolute          percentage
    Clanrats                 63                   85.1
    Engineers             52                  70.3
    Plague Monks      51                  68.9
    Screaming Bell     49                  66.2
    Stormfiends          28                 37.8
    WL Vortex            28                
    Jezzails                 27                 36.5
    Grey Seer             19                  25.7
    Arch-Warlock     19
    Plague Furnace   17                 23
    Warpseer             16                 21.6
    Vermintide          13                 17.6
    Acolytes               12                16.2
    Thanquol             10                13.5
    Deceiver               10
    Corruptor             10
    Ratling Guns        9                  12.2
    WL Cannon          9
    Doomwheel         7                  9.5
    Plague Priest        7
    Warbringer            5                6.8
    Clawlord               4                 5.4
    Stormvermin        4
    Warpfire              3                  4.1
    Warpgnaw VL     3
    Skreetch               3
    Deathmaster, HP Abomination  2
    Censer Bearers, Flayers, Clawlord on Brood Horror, Master Moulder, Giant Rats, Gutter-, Nightrunners      1
     
    Including Forgeworld models and endless spells, Skaven have currently access to 44 unique units. 23 of these are used in more than 5% of tournament lists. 13 are used more than 15% of the time. 63 of the lists were mixed Skaven, 7 Pestilens, 3 Skryre and 1 Eshin. Skryre heroes forming such an easy and effective power-pair with most shooting units is the reason you see them essentially in every list.
    When you look at the placings, it feels noteworthy that the same lists (with minimal variations e.g. picking different endless spells for the same points) can go 4-1 or 1-4. None of the major archetypes are consistently superior, rather they depend on the commander, match-ups, scenarios etc.
    With a few exceptions, e.g. Doom Flayers, most units that aren't chosen aren't even bad, just sub-optimal - maybe not even that. The gap is in most cases far smaller than people assume and can often be fixed with a small push (-10% cost) and a small pull (+10% for the popular option). Others, like Hellpit 2d6 movement, would require a warscroll change to make them truly desirable.
  3. Ineffectual Clawlord
    What does a fashionable gentle-rat choose when it wants to kill man-things? The choice is yours, but there are some options that are more efficient than others.
    Monks (damage per model, vs 4+ armour)
                                         Blades                         Staves
    Base                                 0.56                          0.51     
    30+                                  0.80                          0.84
    +Charge                         1.20                           1.4  
    + Filth or Rabid             1.60                           1.9
     
    Staves are almost always better, especially the more buffs are applied. Getting the charge is crucial. Blades of course also profit by the aforementioned, are however a more stable choice for when things go awry. Due to the re-roll they are consistent even with low model counts.
    From a practical standpoint it has to be said that running Staves won't make you popular (the only friend you will ever need is the horned rat anyway!) and is quite a chore. Sorting a hundred dice and more into four piles is just not enjoyable gameplay for most people. As long as Blades are a justifiable option I will run them.
     
    Clanrats (damage per model, vs 4+ armour)
                                              Swords                                 Spears                           20 swords equivalent in spears
    Base                                  0.13                                       0.083                            31
    30+                                   0.33                                       0.22                               26
    + Gnash Bones                0.44                                       0.33                               27
    + Warbringer CA             0.61                                       0.45                               27
     
    The important part is the third column. Imagine you get 20 swords into combat, how many spears would it take to get the same amount of damage? At it's core this tells you, unsurprisingly, that you need a couple more spears. Therein lies the problem. Spears can afford to lose fewer models than Swords. Yes, you could potentially do more fighting in three ranks, but giving the rate Clanrats die you probably won't.
    In addition spears suffer more from penalties to hit. Going from 4 to 5 is a heavier loss than going from 3 to 4. (On the plus side: blocks with spears look great. )
    Why would you even care how much damage Clanrats do? Well, used as 20-rat screening unit you don't. If we assume a points increase for Plague Monks in the future, running two 40-rat blocks with a Clawlord can be a viable alternative in the sense that your anvils do some damage in return and you diversify your win conditions.
     
    Stormfiends (per model equipped, vs 4+)
                                                                         damage                           MMMWP                                                      
    a)
     Launcher (+ spark)                                      3                                      6
    Warpfire is just mortal wounds = 1/2 models in range.
    b)
    Ratling  (10 shots, + spark)                        4.4                                    8.9
    Grinderfist                                                   2.2                                    4.4
    c)
    Doomflayer (+1 to hit)                               3.7                                    5.8
    Shocking Gauntlets                                    3.3                                    6.3  (if fishing for 6s, re-rolling only fails: 5.3)
     
    Both melee variants are pretty much equal, concerning their average damage as well as their reliability (or lack thereof). Despite not regularly seeing them, i believe that a unit of 3 with Warpfire brings a lot to the table. There are few matchups where a Flamethrower will be a complete waste and even then you can use the model as a sacrificial lamb in the way the mainstream ranged unit uses it's melee bro. In particular builds that are already strong against MSU/single target (e.g. double bell with chain warlock and Jezzails) can profit from having an anti-horde option.
    The only thing that has a hard time justifying itself is the Grinderfist. Failing to arrive 1/3 of the time is critical. As well as the general problem with deepstriking SF this way: Warpfire is out of range, the "normal build" needs to be buffed in order to do work. Unless you run  some form of original build that tries to mass deepstrike most of their army, I wouldn't advise building it.
     
    Deathmaster (vs 4+ armour)
    Weeping              1.8
    Fighting               1.6
    Fighting Claws with:    Sword of Judgment     5.3
                                            Jadewand                    2.8
                                           Rune Blade                   3.1
    Clan Eshin units follow the classic fantasy archetype of the assassin, with one exception: they aren't deadly. The Deathmaster follows this philosophy strictly. He has great utility and can really surprise your opponent both by appearing out of nowhere as well as not doing anything once he appeared.
    Lucky procs of SoJ can of course be good, but sacrificing your artifact slot (you are Skaven, you probably only have one) for not even 4 bonus mortal wounds is just not an amazing option. Vigordust Injector on Fiends, Monks or Vermin can do this far more reliably.
     
    Master Moulder (vs 4+ armour)
    Lash                         1.3
    Things-Catcher       1.3 
    A question of aesthetics, typical for clan Moulder. Some 3" fighting shenanigans are always appreciated and can give you that extra bit of damage to tip the tides. It probably won't however. Using enough Moulder units to justify a support hero for them means that you need to put some extra effort in though.
     
     
    Given the length of the book there are surprisingly few choices hidden away and with the exception of Stormfiends none of them fundamentally change anything about the units. I do hope this was helpful to all of you losing sleep over Clanrat equipment!
  4. Ineffectual Clawlord
    Since they show up in most competitive Skaven lists and have a bad reputation: are Plague Monks overpowered?
    Breaking down the damage (Pair of Foetid Blades, vs 4+ AR, damage per model)
                                          with Bale-Chime            (without)              100 pt efficiency          (without Bale, cost 300)
    Base                                 0.56                                (0.50 )                  8                                      (6.7 )
    30+                                  0.80                                (0.74 )                   9.4                                  (7.5 )
    +Charge                         1.20                                (1.11 )                   17.2                                 (14.8 )
    + Filth or Rabid             1.60                               (1.48 )                    22.9                                (19.7 )
    Both Prayers                 2.14                               (1.98 )                    30.6                                (26.4 )
    Picking Staffs is better if you can get the charge or buff them. However they are very reliant on the charge, annoying because of all their rolling and less reliable due to no inherent rerolls.
    How does this compare to...?
    Most mixed lists use them without buffs, since a Plague Furnace means a 200 pt investment. It is a decent combatant, but will get eaten by most dedicated monsters/hammers.
    Monks are glassy as can be but work in Skaven lists because of Death Frenzy. They are balanced around their need to get the charge and their 20/30+ unit bonuses and having (mostly) no rend. The main issue is not that they themselves are amazing, but that they are annoying. A box full of dice, rerolls, 4 separate piles of dice due to two "on 6 rules", (2 weapon profiles if you use Staffs.
    The solution can't be to just flat increase points since this just hurts pure Pestilens (who have no other choice) and Nurgle (who need all the love they can get). Rather removing the Bale-chime option lowers damage by ~8% (Foetid Blades vs 4+ AR) and particularly removes two dice piles.
    6s on hit should feel like something special. Double damage does this, - 1 rend mostly feels like a waste of time. The good news is that you can do this yourself since it is an optional piece of equipment, the bad news is that instead of a rework of the warscroll there will most likely be another point increase.
  5. Ineffectual Clawlord
    I've decided to cut out the math bits, put them into a separate entry and just give the results in order not to dilute the text too much. None of the spoilers are essential, these are just some thoughts for specific units that I tried to keep as general as possible.
    Summary:
    Stormfiends and Acolytes are bad investments without buffs, in particular MMMWP + Spark. Jezzails are decent without buffs. Doomwheels are a utility piece. Warpfire Throwers and Cannons have their niche.  Give Ratling Guns a chance.
     
    What does "100 pt efficiency" mean? "Average damage" of what? "Compensated for overload" ?
    Warp Lightning Cannon: (180 pt, 24 + 3")
    avg dam                         100 pt efficiency
    Base                                               3.5                                   1.9
    +Overloaded                                  7                                     3.9
    + Arkhspark                                   8.7                                  4.8
    Notes
     
    Jezzails: (140 pt for 3, 30 + 6", vs 4+ AR)
     
                                                     avg dam                           100 pt efficiency
    Base                                        3.2                                      2.3
    + Spark                                   4                                         2.9
    + re wound                            4.8                                      3.4
    Notes
     
    Stormfiends: (260 pt for 3, 24 + 6", vs 4+ AR, ranged variant, mid-range of 10.5 shots for ratlings, target for Launchers < 10 models)
                                      avg Launcher                         avg Ratling                       100 pt efficiency
    Base                           1.5                                         2.3                                     1.5
    + Spark                      2.3                                         4.6                                      2.7
    + re hit                       3.4                                         7                                        4
    + re wound                5.1                                         9.3                                     5.5
    + Vigordust               6                                            11.1                                   6.6
    Notes
     
    Acolytes (60pt for 5, 6 + run + 8", vs 4+ AR, target < 10 models)
                                           avg dam                                  100 pt efficiency
    Base                               2.1                                           3.5
    + Spark                          3.1                                            5.2
    + re hit                           4.7                                            7.8
    + re wound                    7                                               11.7
    + Vigordust                    8.3                                            13.8
     
    Notes
    Ratling Guns (60pt, 6 + 12", vs 4+ AR, mid range of 7 shots, everything overloaded)
                                          avg dam                               100 pt efficiency (compensated for overload)
    Base                              3.1                                         5.2  (4.4)
    + Spark                         6.2                                          10.3  (8.8)
    + re hit                          9.3                                          15.5  (13.3)
    + re wound                   12.4                                       20.7  (17.7)
    Notes
    Doomwheel (160pt, 4d6 movement, vs 4+ AR, everything overloaded, mid range of 7 shots)
                                        avg dam                melee             100 pt efficiency (only ranged)
    Base                            4.1                         1.3                   2.6
    + Spark                       6.2                         1.3                   3.9
    + re hit                        8.3                         1.3                   5.2
    + re wound                11.9                       2.7                   7.4
    Notes
    Warpfire (70pt, 6 + 8")
                                  base                   overloaded        100 pt efficiency/ overloaded (compensated)
    vs 3                       1.5                      3                        2.1 / 3.2
    5                             2.5                    5                         3.6 / 5.4
    10                          5                        10                       7.2 / 10.8
    15                          7.5                     15                       10.7 / 16.1
    20 targets             10                       20                      14.3 / 21.5
    Notes
     
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