Magnus The Blue
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Posts posted by Magnus The Blue
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On 9/22/2021 at 6:03 PM, dnusha said:
Thanks for a good post.
- did you take into account that 1 in 5 brutes can take 2' 3a 4+ 3+ -2 2d Gore-Choppa and brute boss can pic 1' 4a 3+ 3+ -1 2d Smasha + Claw?
- +1 to hit ability for brutes, how much dmg they gonna do?
- Tusks and Hooves on Gore Gruntas, 4 attacks per model, how much dmg they gonna do?
Mawcrusha probably outdamage sludgedraker after + attacks buff on the boss kicks in. (sludgedraker is great though). Maybe GW really want us to go Da Choppas if we are going mass brutes/ardboyz, IJ clans are basically free buffs now,
Yes, took into account the Gore-choppa and Smash/Claw on the Brutes
+1 to hit brings the Brutes up to 8.76 damage a turn and 18.26 points/melee damage, so slightly better than Gore Gruntas, but situational.
I included mount attacks in the Gruntas calculation.
Absolutely, the Mawcrusher is much more likely to get buffed up for lots of reasons (both are great really).
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Arrow boys are in a weird place right now. They have gone from a hard to kill shooting unit to a true hybrid: lots of wounds, solid combat and ok ranged attacks. Getting double the attacks in combat means that they are actually a threat in combat (especially in icebone) but without Brutal Beast spirits just can't do a worthwhile Unleash Hell. I'm going to try units of 10 to camp objectives and do chip damage as needed but also think they would work on-mass in Bonegrin: one unit of 30 for All Out attack and lots of 10 Orruk units.
One of the things I'd struggling with is who to use as a general. Big Boss seems obvious for Great Hunter but then your stuck with a fragile general who only really does anything when in the thick of the fighting: so will proble die unless you hide him in the back like a grot.
Prophet with Master of Magic seems solid, but I want my Prophet to be shooting lasers from his eyes, not casting spell or worrying about staying alive.
Which leaves use with Wardoks (5 wounds!) or Wierdnobs who both feel too weedy to be the general and mean no Great Hunter. Humm, hard choices.
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I love me some stats, so going to pop together interesting insights I've found pop doing statistical analyses with the new book. I'll add bits and bobs that I find interesting, but happy to take requests for statistical analyses. Obviously these examples will never tell the whole story of how units perform on the battlefield so always thing about the winder context. PS: I do all the maths from first principles in a basic spreadsheet to avoid the ambiguity and assumptions in many of the commonly used Math-hammer tools.
First one that surprised me:
A Sludge Raker averages more damage than a Mawcrusher!
Really surprised me when I realised it. Without any buff except it's own Venom a Breakerboss on Sludgeraker does 14 wounds against a 4+ save. A Megaboss on Mawcrusha (Gorhacker) averages only 13.72, despite costing 165 points more. Sure the Megaboss is faster, harder to kill, easier to buff and has some brilliant special rules, but still an interesting finding.
Breakaboss on Troggoth isn't far behind either 12.22 damage when yanking the Troll's chain, but that's even more of a stretch to compare since melee damage is basically the only thing he can contribute and 5" more makes he hard to bring to bare. Still tempted to try a list with 3 of them though just to unleash bezerka troll madness.
Brutes are less effective in combat than Goregruntas
Ignoring the difference in movement and special rules, point for point, Goregruntas are more efficient than Brutes, even with their fancy new spears. As you can see bellow (damage calcs Vs4+ save) not much in it, but considering Goregruntas are more than twice as fast it a surprise they are similar, let along more efficient. Makes those Bloodtooths look even more tempting to me!
Unit name Options +Buffs Cost Number wounds/model save (X+) Ward Melee Damage Shooting Damage (Vs 4+) Effective wounds Cost/EW Cost/Melee Brutes Hackas 160.00 5.00 3.00 4.00 0.00 6.78 0.00 30.00 5.33 23.61 Gore-Gruntas Choppas 150.00 3.00 5.00 4.00 0.00 7.41 0.00 30.00 5.00 20.25 Maniac Boarboys are the most efficient damage dealer across all Warclans units
Not a big suprise, but interesting none the less. Until you start using buffs from heros, other units and command points you just can't beat a unit of 5 charging Icebone Maniac Boarboys for ruining someone's day. Averaging nearly 6 mortal wounds and just over 5 from failed saves, nothing is safe. Their points cost per melee wound caused (per turn against 4+ save) is the lowest of any unit in the book at 13.13.
Unit name Options +Buffs Cost Number wounds/model save (X+) Ward Melee Damage Shooting Damage (Vs 4+) Effective wounds Cost/EW Cost/Melee Maniac Boarboys Icebone + Charge 145.00 5.00 3.00 6.00 6.00 11.04 0.00 21.60 6.71 13.13 -
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4 hours ago, AlmGandix3 said:
@Yargar definitely tell us how it went against the high armor army.
I like the big boss chain. Maybe you could seperate the one 10 man maniaks in two 5 man units, due to coherence you would get less attacks in the 10 man one
Coherency is not that bad for smaller oval bases (not so much for Gorgruntas), just run around in two ranks and when you charge you can point the tips of the bases together. Unless your facing something that can snipe specific models you can get at least 9 models into combat (out of 10) while not risking a losing coherency against casualties (basically one model behind the lines at one end of the unit to protect against it).
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7 minutes ago, bonzai said:
Then there are the secondary things that were lost like monster hunters and such that are harder to factor in. They aren't that much worse, but I knew we were in trouble when GW said that feedimg units of 10 to Mega Gargants was a good solution. Lol.
For regular Savage Orruks, yes. But these are very much the worse case scenario and I think that in a competitive setting everyone will be taking their clan dependant battleline over Savage Orruks anyway. In their respective Clans Morboyz, Boarboys and Arrowboys are sufficiently better than the loss of monster hunters isn't a big deal.
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Ok, last one of these. Going to start focusing on how to get the most out of the new book rather than doing more before-after analysis.
So though I'd got for the elephant in the room: normal Savage Orruks. Points hike and loosing than bonus attack for a horde (15+) is a bitter pill to swallow. But +1 to wound on the charge and built in 5+ save does help compensate. Here are the numbers
Unit name Options +Buffs Cost Number wounds/model save (X+) Ward Melee Damage Effective wounds Cost/EW Cost/Melee DamageSavage Orruks 2.0 Spears, Melee Save, horde bonus 130.00 10.00 2.00 5.00 6.00 3.88 36.00 3.61 33.55 Savage Orruks 2.0 Spears, horde bonus 130.00 10.00 2.00 6.00 6.00 3.88 28.80 4.51 33.55 Savage Orruks 2.0 Spears, Melee Save, 130.00 10.00 2.00 5.00 6.00 2.63 36.00 3.61 49.52 Savage Orruks 3.0 Spears, Icebone, Charge 165.00 10.00 2.00 5.00 6.00 5.83 36.00 4.58 28.29 Savage Orruks 3.0 Spears, Icebone 165.00 10.00 2.00 5.00 6.00 4.67 36.00 4.58 35.36 If your not into maths the two last columns at the end are the important ones: points costs per effective wound (how many points it costs you per zero rend wound it would take to kill the unit) and cost per Melee damage (how many points it costs you on average for each wounding hit the unit causes in combat per round). For both, lower is better.
The main story is that their isn't much difference. Old Orruks were more survivable in combat, but obvious new ones are a better target for save stacking. New Orruks actually do more damage in combat (all calcs assume attacking a 4+ Save enemy) despite losing 1/3rd of their attacks.
I'm not going to argue they got better, 165 points is just too much for what they do and I've not done the calcs for the old horde discount (which everyone lost). but they didn't get much worse, can operate effectively in units of 10 now and I think a minor points tweak will see them right.
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8 hours ago, PlasticCraic said:
I think the big thing there is that Arrow Boys were putting damage wherever they wanted it, whereas Boars intrinsically don't do that (combat unit) and have also been slowed down significantly (Breath gone) and can't jump over screens (Breath gone). So you've gone from engaging on your terms to engaging on your opponent's terms, and that's something that's hard to capture in raw stats.
Overall my concern here is that the win condition for Bonesplitterz was not hyper damage*, so benchmarking the current output of something like Pigs against their old output is not necessarily going to win you games. I've played Bonesplitterz at events as much as most people, and from both my experience and what success I've seen from others it was mostly can't-retreat Bonegrinz wound spam (removed from the army via the Warclan) and then in early 3rd Ed, Drakkfoot Curse Arrowboys (removed from the army via the Priest keyword).
My point here is that I actually don't mind moving on and seeing different units (pigs) and a different Warclan (Icebone) having their time to shine. I've already ordered more pigs, because although I'm currently pretty down on the army I'm not giving up on it. But if we should be ready to move on (we should), that works both ways, and using the old, puny damage output as a benchmark - when that is observably not what won them games - is interesting, but not definitive. If we're going to be a vanilla combat army, with no teleports or particularly fast units, we need to benchmark against actual combat armies. I play a few of those, and all of them have me more excited than Bonesplitterz do right now.
I think there's a real risk that Bonesplitterz have moved from being a solid, high-movement attrition army (with precision burst damage) to a mediocre and much more predictable combat army. Also worth pointing out that the army has been slowed down further via musicians nerfed to +1" charge. I believe that all these movement nerfs will be a large cumulative impact - let's see how it plays out, but that's something that comes to light when you move from looking at damage tables to putting the army on the table. If you don't have the delivery mechanism, you are in trouble - especially for an army with bad armour saves and terrible bravery. With Bonesplitterz, you're where you need to be or you're dead, there is no inbetween.
*with the exception of something like Big Stabbas into monsters, which has also been stripped out, and perhaps more importantly has lost its delivery mechanism (no access to double move and fly, no access to run and charge). Worth noting that they are also frozen out of the new exploding 6s rule
I agree with almost everything you're saying. The damage/attrition stats are only part of the picture, the main point I am trying to make with that we have lost a lot, absolutely but we have also gained a lot.
The Arrow boys Vs Piggies was just something I did because someone asked for it, so much difference between the two when on the tabletop that it's hard to draw any conclusions from it.
I do not think we'll ever be an S Tier army (without silly points reductions) but I do think there is more than one solid B+,A- level army in the Bonesplitters. If they FAQ to allow us to ally in IronJaws/Kuelboyz, we're get another bump in power to (Sloggoth is the most obvious addition).
Lack of speed is definitely a worry, but that fact we can always pop in Great Hunter and 3.0's smaller board helps a lot.
I do hate that we lost Breath of Mork specifically (Kunning Beast spirits is annoying, but we have Mystic Shield).
I think the main advantage of Icebone isn't actually the raw damage output, it the fact that any of our units can now do meaningful damage to even the most heavy armoured enemy, which means less reliance on Big Stabbas/Rogue Idols. Combined with less reliance on heros (mainly because they are worse), I think it means our armies will be much more horde like (although likely multiple minimum units rather than a few big blobs) swapping the board with dangerous naked Orruks. Quite different to what we are used to in from 2.0 but more like how I imagine Bonesplittas fight in the mortal realms.
Worth pointing out I definitely think normal Savage Orruks are over costed, but I think it's the only one of our units that is.
Will do some more points based efficiency Stats over the coming days, but for now I need to do some work
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6 minutes ago, Shirtripper said:
One of the big issues ist arroeboyz are a single activation, whereas 3 units of Maniaks are 3 activations. This gives the opponent a chance to damage the unit which will reduce their fighting effectiveness since it drops them below 5 models.
That said, you can give a Maniak Weirdnob the Fast 'Un mount trait which lets it make a normal move in the hero phase. Theoretically if you went first and with an 8" Tireless Trackers pregame move, the Weirdnob could move 20" then cast GorkaMorka's War Cry, make the enemy unit fight last.
THEN you said in the Boys.
Unless you play against Teclis :c
Oh yeah, lots of moving parts both ways. For the Arrow boys it's pulling off curse against a juicy target (50/50 even of you are in range) without it the arrow boys are only doing about as much damage as one unit of charging Maniacs.
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28 minutes ago, bonzai said:
Regarding Icebone boars. Here is the test... Before the nerf, I could take a unit of 30 arrowboys and a wardokk for brutal beast spirits and on average deal 22 regular wounds and an additional 15 mortal wounds on top of that if curse went off. Show me how the piggies surpass that.
Good idea
So assuming Beast spirits and curse both happen for the old Arrow boyz. Total costs 390 + 85 = 475points
In terms of piggies, lets so 3 units of 5 Maniacs: 435 points.
Against 4+ saves:
Arrow boys are doing 11.25 failed saves plus 15 mortals wounds: 26.25 damage total
3 units of Pigs (charging + icebone) are doing 19.875 failed saves plus 13.25 mortals: 33.125 damage total
Piggies doing about 26% more damage
Against no save:
Arrow boys are doing 22.5 failed saves plus 15 mortals wounds: 37.5 damage total
3 units of Pigs (charging + icebone) are doing 39.75 failed saves plus 13.25 mortals: 53 damage total
Piggies doing about 41% more damage.
Obviously lots of dependencies on both sides and it's a bit apples Vs oranges but interesting to see the comparison between them in near ideal circumstances.
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Here is my first unit analysis: Big Stabbas.
They lose the d6 vs monsters and run and charge, but become defensively much better (big points drop) and offensively much better (except against monsters). Again assuming 4+ save (better saves make the stats better for new icebone)
Unit name Options +Buffs Cost Melee Damage Effective wounds Cost per EW Cost/Melee Defencive change Offensive change Offensive change V MonstersBig Stabbas Old 110.00 4.44 11.52 9.55 24.75 0.00% 0.00% n/a Big Stabbas Old, Vs Monsters 110.00 7.78 11.52 9.55 14.14 0.00% 42.86% 0.00% Big Stabbas New 80.00 4.44 11.52 6.94 18.00 27.27% 27.27% -27.27% Big Stabbas New, Icebone 80.00 4.67 11.52 6.94 17.14 27.27% 30.74% -21.21% The lack of run and charge will definitely be felt but they are points for point nearly 1/3rd much more survivable and doing more damage Vs non monsters.
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4 minutes ago, Malakree said:
One point is that with so many heafty casters dominating the meta atm relying on spells to do stuff is just asking to get dumped on.
This is very true. We could get through against all but the best casters (easy to get +3 or better to cast), but all it takes is Naggash or Telcis to ruin your day.
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Here is a more detailed breakdown for the same situation 4+ to hit and wound:
% chance Relative difference to other scenarios Hit Wound Failed save Doing damage S1 S2 S3 S4 S1: No bonus 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 12.50% 0.00% -10.01% -25.00% -43.75% S2: Old Icebone 50.00% 50.00% 55.56% 13.89% 11.11% -0.01% -16.67% -37.50% S3: New. Not icebone 66.67% 50.00% 50.00% 16.67% 33.33% 19.99% 0.00% -25.00% S4: New icebone 66.67% 50.00% 66.67% 22.22% 77.78% 59.99% 33.33% 0.00% As you can (hopefully) see, even compared to old Icebone (which basically cost you an artifact to use), you've still got a 60% increase in damage now for the same attacks.
Losing the magic feels like much less of a blow now I've look at this. Sure stacking buffs is hard for us now, but we don't really need them (offensively). This makes use less dependant on heros and removes one of our major weakspots (hero sniping).
Seems like a fundamental shift in the way the army plays from being high defence (through tonnes of wounds and save stacking) we've gone to much more damage but worse defence (more expensive wounds and harder to save stack with nerfed Wardoks).
I'm going to add analysis of specific units to this thread over time. Feel free to request any specific stuff you want me to explore.
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9 minutes ago, Holy_Diver said:
It means that I have seen the pages for the macthed from a private chat. Everything remains as it is now, with the following additions:
- Ogroid, chieftain, Warqueen, and cultists can have the mark. Cultists who have been given the mark become battlines.
- grand strategy: if there is a t least 1 friendly SLAVES unit wholly within each larga quarter of the battlefield, at end of the battle you score the strategy.
- one tactic for not have wihin 12" any enemy from a obj and another for rollin in the eye of the gods table.Interesting but far from mind blowing. Surprised they didn't use the opportunity for fix Mark of Tzeentch, such a negative play experience on any 3+ save unit (when combined with save stacking).
Any new Core Battalions?
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Not sure why no-one is talking about this. It may be hard to cast (7) but feels to me like a big deal. Such a powerful debuff (-1 attacks and no running) with good range (18" + 6") and big areas of effect (12" diameter circle and everything touched in effected). So crippling a large chunk of the enemy armour from across the board. What's not to love?
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Ok,
So I think it's fair to say that the reception has been mixed at best for the new Bonesplitters. As a long terms Bonesplitters player I get the negativity, we've lots a lot of our cool rules and our magic game in particular has really suffered but we have some new cool rules (love the Waggok stare and the Waaagh is great) but also I think we're actually more competitive. Mainly because our damage output has skyrocketed. Spirit of Gorkamoka + Icebone represents a MASSIVE damage increase for almost all our units (when over 5 models).
Here are some numbers:
Lets assume we're going Icebone and fighting against 4+ Saves.
Old style 4+/4+ attack would have 1/8 or 12.5% chance of doing an unsaved wounding hit.
Add in Spirits and this goes up to 1/6 or 16.666%
Icebone on top makes it 2/9 or 22.2%
So without buffs or units specific charge bonuses chance of damage has gone from 12.5% to 22.2%, that's a HUGE 77.777% relative increase in damage and almost army wide. I don't think any army has ever has such a crazy increase in damage output.
I'll put all the workings and some more detailed analysis up later: obviously points have gone up and attacks down for some units, but it's generally a net gain across the board with some outstanding winners.
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2 minutes ago, Rivener said:
Can you show your math here?
The +5 relies on a warchanter and Wardok, plus 2 from the heroic action (your turn plus theirs).
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9 hours ago, Kasper said:
How fast are you getting that +1 hit/wound up and running through? On paper it looks like it will take a long time, like turn 3 the earliest?
Round 2 seems very doable. You can get d6 +5 before combat and +3 per unit in combat (1 for charge 1 for being in combat each turn).
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Been having some fun with maths and on my are Maniac Boarboys the big winners.
In icebone and unit of just 5 charging will do, on average over 11 wounds against 4+ armour saves. About 50% of the wounds are from mortals so they scale really well against both better and worse saves. Without charging they still crack out just under 8 damage, which still hurts.
Morboyz are similarly killy in the unlikely situation where you can get all of them into combat, are slower but also harder to kill.
Regular Boarboys are obviously also good, since they are battleline and a bit more hardy, still spit out 9 wounds on the charge and nearly six without it.
Both get a 25% less killy when they lose one model but are hardly neutered.
With Tireless trackers they are all moving 20" first turn before charging, so an Alpha strike to be scared of!
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27 minutes ago, AlmGandix3 said:
if anyone wants to roll 300+ dice a turn I really want to know how it went. With the current save stacking meta I dont know if it will work out too well but we wont know until someone tries this
Please, once your in combat it's 500 dice a turn 😆. The idea would be to use the million arrows to take out all the support units early to minimise save stacking. Also with so many bodies you should be winning the objective game against most armies.
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Anyone else thinking of the prospect of 10*10 Bonegrin Arrowboys. They feel like a good self sufficient MSU unit now. Add a Sloggoth, 6-8 Big Stabbas and some support characters and you've got tonnes of bodies, lots of arrows and a solid close combat army to boot.
Might actually be better as Big Waaagh but hard to turn down 100 extra shots a turn.
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I actually think Big Waaagh is the way to go for any Kruelboys army that isn't going for big yellas. You lose the meh Waaagh, the ok Dirty Tricks and the (other than big yellas) situational and not great sub-factions. In return you get universal +1to hit, wound, charge, cast and dispell once you hit mid game. Seems like a bargain.
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1 hour ago, Belmail said:
I am really sad to see breath of gorkamorka go... I felt like it was a very defining spell for our army. Why does GW keep spells like squiggly curse in the book but cut things like fly or +1 to save. I've never used squiggly ever.
It is a shame that we've gone from one of the best spell lores in the game to one of the worst.
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Initial impression is that we are a bit worse. Are units are generally better but more expensive (especially in Icebone) but heros are worse but cheaper.
Video I saw wasn't clear, am I right that normal Savage Orruks are up to 165 points for 10??!?
On the plus side we have a hilarious combo: Waggog Prophet with Glowing Tatoos (+2 ward). Activate bonesplittas Waaagh and the Mask and nuke basically any unit in the game off the board. On average you do about 50 mortal wounds before melting your brains out
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37 minutes ago, Snorri Nelriksson said:
Seems that the kruleboyz warband is'nt in the book judging by the images of the preorder.
Not surprising really, usually only in the book of the warband is already released.
Orruk Math-hammer
in Destruction
Posted · Edited by Magnus The Blue
I did the maths and got similar but slightly lower results. Obviously this is the most swingy thing ever, bit the potential to toss out 20 mortal wounds+ is great for mind games as well as actually sniping stuff. The fact that this damage is in the hero phase is also great (when in range) as it lets you easily free up units that are trapped in combat.