Nick907
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Posts posted by Nick907
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I didn’t explain myself very well. Your math for probabilities is fine, the fallacy comes from assuming a ‘law of averages’ can determine an average value of the ability. You can calculate the chances of getting a specific outcome but you cannot assume that outcomes will match a statistical average. In other words, we cannot say that the ability is worth ‘3-4 wounds on average’. Outcomes will vary wildly and may never meet those expectations. Ultimately this is because you always have a 16.67% chance of rolling a one, regardless of previous outcomes.
6 hours ago, Isotop said:Gamblers Fallacy has nothing to do with the expected damage from the Bomblets. @Stormrage89 correctly showed the likelihood for different amounts of damage you can get from the Bomblets. Gamblers Fallacy does not take place here because you look at the expected damage before you roll any dice, but Gamblers Fallacy is something you observe during the dice rolling. Sure, you can "reset" the damage table in your mind every time you roll a 2+, but again, this does not change the probable damage you will inflict.
3 hours ago, Baron Wastelands said:“Mathhammer” as a criticism generally implies misuse of averages, etc., which is why I tried to offer a rough likely range. (Better than saying e.g “you’ll do 3.3 wounds”
I find it pretty rude to devalue @Stormrage89´s helpful mathematical assistance by throwing around a rather unrelated (but smart sounding) word.
4 hours ago, Stormrage89 said:What I posted was the likelyhood of success If your looking to get to a spacific number of wounds out of this item.
Example: what's the chance of getting 1 wound? (5/6 = 83.33%) what's the chance of getting 3 wounds (5/6 × 5/6 × 5/6 = 57.87%)
Your basically taking 5/6^X=Y where "X"= the number of mortal wounds your wanting to do and "Y" is your chance to get that many wounds.
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11 hours ago, Stormrage89 said:
Ya, obviously the chances are low, but this can get really out of hand.
number of hits Chance 1 83.33% 2 69.44% 3 57.87% 4 48.23% 5 40.19% 6 33.49% 7 27.91% 8 23.26% 9 19.38% 10 16.15% 11 13.46% 12 11.22% 13 9.35% 14 7.79% 15 6.49% 16 5.41% 17 4.51% 18 3.76% 19 3.13% 20 2.61% 21 2.17% 22 1.81% 23 1.51% 24 1.26% 25 1.05% 26 0.87% 27 0.73% 28 0.61% 29 0.51% 30 0.42% Gamblers fallacy, you always have a 16.67% chance of rolling a one, no matter how many times you’ve rolled the dice.
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4 hours ago, Neffelo said:
Unfortunately, with these box sets they do not. They are always a limited print run.
40 minutes ago, 5kaven5lave said:In GW’s slight defence re: Aether War, it lasted a lot longer than the OBR vs. Ogors box. A week’s warning plus almost a week on general sale should be enough time for interested parties to scrape the pennies together.
Ah dammit, I slept on it too long. Anyone interested in selling me the new endrinmaster?
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51 minutes ago, plavski said:
It was sold out on the official website two days ago. Luckily I have my two boxes
Well hello Mr. Fancy Pants
haha right on yo, I’m sure they will make more kits to match demand
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Anybody else notice that aetherwar is sold out already?
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2 minutes ago, GDD said:
@Nick907 If you don't mind me asking, how did you do that beautiful blue hull and the endrin-engine?
It looks like it's either metallics or gloss involved?Grey metallic mixed with blue ink
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KO are detailed and complicated models to paint, I’d recommend using subassembly to reach under all the different parts but that will keep you off the table top for a bit. I paint the environmental suits first with a base color and then do the metal. Leadbelcher spray might speed things up since metallic paints are always difficult
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2 hours ago, Borsuk said:
So our new, best ability is pretty easily neutered. It looks like NH, ID and anything that can charge us with flyers will be pretty hard match up for us.
Navigator yo, cut their movement in half from 36” away.
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12 hours ago, Kramer said:
So basically the game plan is remove threat first turns, get the points late game. the list is very cool don’t get me wrong. Personally wouldn’t want to paint that many balloon boys
but would love to play against it. And the all in on endrinriggers vs some skywardens is for the heals I assume?
Get the big threats when I can, score points for killing, clear off objectives as I go and send in a rigger unit to claim them. Even with ranged weapons our riggers will still have 2 saw attacks in melee! I think I might do msu Endrinriggers and just plan to lose deployment every game.
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34 minutes ago, Hebroseph said:
It is one of the current "boogeymen" of the tournament meta. Its an Ossiarch bone reapers subfaction that gives the entire army +1 save. This turns their basic battleline troops into 3+ save models, who can then get buffed to have an additional rend and reroll ALL failed save rolls. It makes them particularly stubborn to remove, especially when you can resurrect the models through various means.
Sounds like good shootin’
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What is petrifax elite? Why are they being brought up so often?
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53 minutes ago, Kramer said:
Who will you use for objective claiming? Looks like ab interesting list but light on bodies and heroes. If you can decimate you opponent early I could see this list struggling to get the points.
The 3 of my 30 endrinriggers with ranged weapons can float over to objectives after the group wipes out the threat. I only have 1 hero though.
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1 minute ago, Reuben Parker said:
This is the real weakness of high drop lists as I think 90% of the time I would prefer to play second especially with an army that’s not that strong in melee as it’s even harder for you to fight off the double turn.
I think the early double turn with this new book would be too strong, since we would just sit back and delete the strongest stuff without taking any damage back until the end of turn 2. This just means we will have to pick our targets more carefully and utilize repair functions (at least with my build)
endrinmaster with balloons, Ironclad, gunhauler, 5x Thunderers w/rifles, 30x Endrinriggers w/ranged weapons.
Going second with a double turn wouldn’t be much fun for my opponent.
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We don’t have to finish deployment first anymore, we can just pack into a corner and screen with arkanauts. I think smart opponents will force us to go first, so the strategy will be to proceed cautiously in round 1 most of the time. We have the ability to clear objectives with shooting and move around but it will be harder to bank on the early double turn. This is okay and opponents will survive longer than they would otherwise. We have incredible fire power and mixed ranges, so we will probably need to split our focus, move defensively, and pick smaller targets to wipe out in turn 1-2.
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New realize has given me everything I wanted! My repair build is now hyper potent!
Endrinmaster with balloons 220
ironclad 510
gunhauler 150
5 x thunderers 120
30 x Endrinriggers w/ranged weapons 1000
2000 points
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4 hours ago, stratigo said:
It isn’t that hard to get people into houses. We just aren’t willing to do it without giving the banks a huge cut. Bringing up the mortgage crisis is not a particularly great way to make any points, except maybe about corporate greed
So easy to do it led to a global recession.
I think it’s a great way to illustrate my point; which is that bad design can be exploited. Blaming corporate greed is out of order, sort of like when players stacked Thunderers with mortars after KO was first released. The rules allowed for the unit to equip the special weapons and buff with the khemist. The designers didn’t have the foresight to think that players would do this, but blaming the players is backwards since they were acting according to what the rules allowed. So a unit of 5 Thunderers could launch 10 mortar shots 36” across the board and cause up to 30 wounds. Not the player’s fault, but rather the unintended consequences of poor design.
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1 minute ago, Sesom said:
Are you accusing the KO of offering junk mortgages?
Read the code closely and never sign up
for an adjustable rate mortgage
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19 minutes ago, Walrustaco said:
Wha-
Fannie Mae is a mortgage conglomerate, it buys mortgage debts from banks and incentivizes banks to lend more. Freddie Mac takes that debt and fractures it into investable securities and derivatives. If you buy a $200k house with a 30 year mortgage, most of your payment will be interest against that $200k principle, so that after making payments for 30 years you’ll have spent more like $400-$500k (depending on your interest rate). People and businesses can invest in that difference by purchasing shares of securities and derivatives. When the housing bubble burst in 2007, it was because so many new homeowners had defaulted on their payments that it was impossible for those investments to payout. That’s why banks were poised to fail and employers had to downsize and retirement funds were depleted.
Basically the idea of getting people into houses was a nice idea, but instead of bringing economic prosperity the lack of foresight lead to global recession. Similar problems can arise in game design when designers are too ambitious or lack foresight, leading to a broken game. Luckily, GW has already made those kind of mistakes with KO so chances of them happening again are much lower.
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3 minutes ago, Walrustaco said:
Huh?
Unintended consequences.
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These are not mutually exclusive ideas. A ‘cool’ play style does not necessarily mean a less balanced or unbalanced one. The game designers and writers are absolutely interested in making a balanced game because a balanced game is more fun and sells better than a ‘broken’ game. The problems come from the unintended consequences of various themes, abilities, and point costs. Gamers are very good at exploiting holes that designers over look or fail to predict.
Same thing happens in politics, Congress didn’t foresee the housing bubble when they created Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and they assumed getting Americans into homeownership was a good thing to do. This was done with bipartisan support. It wasn’t until the foreclosures were already too wide spread that investors realized that wouldn’t be collecting on those 30 year mortgage numbers. Still, Congress had acted with positive intentions. Oops!
The good news is that KO came out on the low end of performance, and designers have had 2 years to play test new ideas and listen to the community. I’m sure this very forum has been checked and double checked multiple times, and the likelihood of the designers failing is significantly lower than it would be for a new army. Hindsight is 20/20, and we have that in our favor now. It’s going to be a good time to be a KO player, and we should all be excited!
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Of course the game writers care about balance. We are getting a revised book... why would they revise the book if they didn’t care about balance?
What about the yearly General’s Handbook and point revisions?
What about the faqs?
Some of these complaints are just silly and bitter.
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25 minutes ago, GeneralZero said:
My fear is gunhauler being bad (because they are in both boxes: SC and Aether war). I will probably have 4 of them at the end. I'd be sad if they become kinda useless. (I like the mini BTW and having a bunch of them on the battlefield is super nice to see)
If they still have the ‘escort vessel’ ability they will be able to hide behind frigates and ironclads and soak up damage. Who knows if that will change though?
18 minutes ago, Rachmani said:Khemist will surely get something in return.
I don‘t doubt that at allI’m sure he will, plenty of potential uses for that model that would be better then +1 attack.
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2 minutes ago, plavski said:
There is no proof. The most we have been given here is "from FB".
So speculation then? Sounds about right. Most of these make sense but until the book comes out they are just assumptions. I’d rather not change my arkanunts, really enjoy the volleygun aesthetic and rolling 18 dice for three models haha
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Where are the point cost and weapon loadout rumors coming from? Are people just guessing, or is there some sort of proof?
but would love to play against it. And the all in on endrinriggers vs some skywardens is for the heals I assume?
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