EldritchX

Not so. The case described is, in fact, the ONLY case now, rather than something that only happened for a single wizard list, and helps to explain why the spell is so terrible after the nerf.

Exactly. The events ARE connected, and there NO gambler's fallacy in any shape or form. To be fair, you do gain the Cogs on the table, which is essentially a chance of extra spells on subsequent turns or a reduction of 1 spellcast or unbind. I doubt that's worth it though.

Incorrect. If the Cog cast fails, yes, there wouldn't have been a difference if you'd rolled that for another spell instead. However, if you passed, you'd need to roll successfully and avoid unbind a second time, whereas just casting the other spell instead would already be successful. But yes, it's terribad now.

You can't look at it in isolation. If you're at ~1910 points with just the one HoSH, then sure, the best thing to do is probably upgrade to a FLoSH. There are many occasions where you might be at ~1960 points with a FLoSH and then dropping to a HoSH may allow you to afford an extra Butcher, etc. Another possibility is just to leverage the HoSH's cheapness to max out on Metalcruncher. A Hunter-led Boulderhead list can squeeze in 5 HoSH, for example.

You don't have to be "starved for points" for the HoTT to be a good value proposition. 90 points is over 20% less. And you're also gaining a Vulture.

I wouldn't play a FLoTT if you don't have a couple of non-monster heroes, because it only shines when you put an Amulet of Destiny on it, and no-tribe isn't very good at 2k. Based on what you have, Boulderhead is probably the best choice by far. If you can proxy or rebuild the HoTT, you can bring 3 heroes on SH with Metalcruncher, and use the Mournfangs as battleline. It's a 3-drop list with strong melee damage and is fairly tough.

I have the same experience so far. This is in contrast to 2.0, where I opted to go second quite often if Geminids were on the table, even giving my opponent double turns. I was playing -hit stacking, always strikes first lists though. That said, I've been double-turned several times so far in 3 and still won.

It's far better for one unit in your entire army per phase/turn, because AoD and Mystic Shield are thus limited. It's much less so for the others. For these others, the lower cost of the HoSH works out to higher resilience per point. The relevant offensive output per point of HoSHs is also comparable or better.

You can consider a FloSH if you definitely need that one hero to survive. In any scenario where you don't, the HoSH is imo better value. The Frost Spear is complete trash against hard targets in this edition, averaging barely 1 damage even if buffed to 2+, 2+, and Ogors already have a lot of other good sources of damage against soft targets.

I mostly see the Tyrant being useful for the Trophy Rack now, tbh. That said, there should be a lot more worthwhile Hero/Monster targets around, so maybe? Definitely useful in an Underguts list.

The former, and yes.

The AoS app, though still for the previous version of the game, shows that SoB can take the Fungoid Cave Shaman as an Ally. He used to have a rule where any Destruction army could take him but I'm not sure about the status of that now. Maybe someone else knows more?

Can Allied units not count for Core Battalions?

You used to do 5 on average, not 6, because you could 'miss'. You also now do 3.5 more MW on a charge, and move faster. However, the Huskard is a trap choice. The only good TT is the FLoTT, with Rimefrost Hide or Alvagr Ancient, and possibly not outside Winterbite.

Uh, I'm not really sure what you're expecting from a screen. It's a hundred points for a unit with 20 wounds that can stretch as far as 40". They're an inch slower than other screens on average. As for the Firebelly, I in fact prefer to bring him over any other wizard in TAC lists, outside of Bloodgullet lists. If you want to outgrind others in melee, I don't think we can do any better than to stack penalties to hit. If you don't like screens, then just drop the Tyrant, etc and bring another 12 Gluttons, I guess.

Gnoblars have been pretty good screens, in my experience. Against Monks specifically, I'd drop the tyrant for a Firebelly and Billowing Ash. And probably trade the Balewind for Geminids. Remember that the Thundering Charge and Metalcruncher damage doesn't trigger the retaliatory mortal wounds, and you have a save against any caused on the FLoSH. If you charge strategically with a Thermalrider cloak, you can most likely prevent him from contacting with too many monks too (and avoid Frenzied Assault).

Firstly, Plague Monks recently (a few days ago) had their Warscroll nerfed - so it might matter if your opponent was using the old rules. Secondly, there are some suboptimal things in your list, like the Tyrant, extra command point, Balewind and even the Goremand and Leadies. You could get more Ironguts or even a full unit of 12 more Gluttons or a FLoSH.

I use a lot of them. You really need Winterbite for the General trait for +1 to wound and the ability to hit at the start of combat. I don't think they're good outside of that. Used correctly, they're brutal killers who'll make your opponent wonder whose turn it actually is. You should include some -to be hit stuff too.

Icebrow Hunters have the BCR keyword. No fixing needed.

This is pretty definitively answered in the designers' commentary: So, yes, but be warned that they will have a chance to dispel Balewind in their turn and deny you the effect if you rely on the increased range.

I just got a Butcher and it came with a 50mm round along with the 40mm square, as did the Firebelly. SM should come with the 105mm oval.

The description for mortal wounds in the rules does say "after they have been allocated, a mortal wound is treated in the same manner as any other wound for all rules purposes", FWIW.

I didn't forget it, but the calculator I used had minor issues. The average damage from both SH charging is about 17.7, so maybe 9 killed. And about 16 from the Ironguts, so about 8 killed. And I'm not sure it's a Deathstar when it's less than a third of the army and you can take two. Remember: just one unit can outfight BOTH artifact equipped FLoSH at the same time.

The toughest units out there will laugh off the 2 FLoSH still, unfortunately. If both of them contact a unit of 30 Hearthguard Berzerkers and get off all their attacks before being degraded by the counterswing, they'll only kill less than 6 on average. The counterswing will maim or kill one, and the first attack on the opponent's turn will certainly finish one off, and the other will struggle to kill even 2 after being degraded and missing the charge damage. Then there's the next 30... OTOH, 8 Bloodfeasted Ironguts will outdamage both FLoSHs by themselves on the same target, but still only kill about 9.

If you're looking at a tailored list to address a specific opponent, (a big) maybe. But in a tournament? The list has barely any teeth and the 'pressure' from 6 cats and a Hunter would barely dent a 200 point objective holding unit, while costing significantly more. If you don't like 12 Gluttons and change, bring a FLoSH with the cloak and change/Cogs to threaten the same backline objectives instead. He can double up as a frontline combatant when appropriate too.