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EnixLHQ

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Blog Comments posted by EnixLHQ

  1. Updated for our new 3.0 battletome!

    • The Nighthaunt guide has been fully updated for AoS 3.0 as well as our own brand new battletome
    • Includes Seasons of War: Thondia expansion content
    • Almost a complete rewrite of existing content. Not just a search-and-replace, you'll see all-new descriptions and takes on everything from abilities to allies and everything in between
    • Refined tactical styles section with more detail without the fluff
    • Hosted on my own site. I did this to accommodate the dense chapter structure and facilitate easier editing
      • No ads, no pay gate. Just click on the banner and start reading
      • Light/dark toggle mode for reading comfort
      • Zoom to top button to get back to the table of contents in a flash

    Please head on over and take a look! Feedback welcome.

    • Like 1
  2. On 9/7/2020 at 8:27 AM, Landohammer said:

    As an upcoming NH player this article was super useful so thanks!

    However i noticed that you still reference Dolorous Guard and Emerald Host several times. But infuriatingly the white dwarf battallions were all FAQ'd out of matched play. 

    Might be a good ideal to update those references to avoid confusing newbies like me 👍

    It's all legal! I was away for a while and didn't update this guide to reflect their momentary removal from legal matched play, but that's moot now. Emerald Host is completely legal to play.

    • Like 1
  3. I'm going to take the time to go through each of the concerns here, but before I do let me give a general disclaimer about my position about all these statistics:

    First, I'm not going into this being defensive. There were a couple good catches here that I will use to update my guide. However, since I will be throwing out some numbers here it is going to look like I'm trying to defend my points with math, and that can seem harsh. That is not my intention. It's just for clarity.

    And second, be careful of mathhammer.

    I don't know of an easier or faster way to kill your enjoyment of the game than to mathhammer it into the ground. By adhering to statistics and math over your enjoyment of the game you will often find yourself in situations where your statistically-perfect unit or army gets inevitably shafted by dice probability or your own tactical mistakes stemming from those numbers. There is a danger to succumbing to a general smugness that comes from thinking you are starting from a superior advantage. I am not saying anyone here correcting me is being smug, but I am speaking from personal experience that trying to math every move is a frustrating waste of time, taxes your enjoyment of the game, and makes you less fun to play against. This is not to say that you shouldn't learn and know your army and know its strengths and weaknesses--you absolutely should--but please make sure you are enjoying your time with the hobby first and foremost, and that everything else comes second. /soapbox

    Okay, now on to my self-defense.

    8 hours ago, Tamachan said:

    I agree that the unit underperforms, but I am not sure, in which scenario you calculated the 50% less damage of Bladegheists? If you quote numbers like these it's good to be transparent about your assumptions (How many Bladegheists vs. how many Glaivewraith Stalkers, attacking a unit with which armor save).

    I used https://aos-statshammer.herokuapp.com/ just like you did. What likely skews our agreement here is unit size, using all available buffs on the warscroll, and the enemy save. Whenever possible I try to skew my statistics and math to real-world expectations and point-to-point comparisons.

    In this case, a single model of Bladegheists vs a single model of Glaivewraiths, if you enable all the buffs on each (charged and ST on 'geists, charged on 'wraiths) is 25% more damage for the 'geists against a 4+ save.  But at max unit size, 20 for the 'gheists and 16 for the 'wraiths, the 'geists will do 66.24% more damage assuming all the models could attack, which isn't a realistic scenario. However, 10 'ghests who can all attack, and 12 'wraiths who also all can attack, which both cost the same amount of 180 points, is a difference of 49.36708860759494 damage. Granted, I rounded up instead of down to 49.4%.

    8 hours ago, Tamachan said:

    Otherwise it's probably best to leave out exact numbers.

    Exact numbers have a way of not being exact. As I said above, any change of the variables involved, sample size, or even replication size can skew the results. Very few people who mathhammer actually use statistically sound biases and frequently find themselves subject to something called "P-hacking" whether they mean to or not. In order to prevent that as much as I can for myself, I try to stick to comparisons that are likely to show up on the board or be a factor in people's lists. For example, point-for-point comparisons because most people will wonder what to do with 200 points and not 20 vs 16 models, and reasonable expectations of how many of those models will actually be doing something, which I will get into below. I'm just trying to offer "back of the napkin" math and do so only in areas where it illustrates the point.

    8 hours ago, Tamachan said:

    Did not understand how bringing up a save from +2 to +3 leads to "50% more potential damage". It leads to 16.6% more potential damage.

    This is likely the same mistake here. Reducing 1 to wound is not 25% but 16.6% less damage incoming. 

    You usually cast Spectral Lure on a 6+. Having a +1 bonus turns this into a 5+. This means you improve from a 72.2 probability to 83.3 probability. How do you get to a +30% chance to cast the spell?

    Didn't understand what 15+ attacks has to do with +50% damage threshold. Can you explain what you mean by that?

    Again, just working to improve the guide.

    It's 50% more damage that gets through the save based on the pior examples. Not your rolls, theirs. Which is a sliding scale. +2 to +3 is 50%. +3 to +4 is 25%, +4 to +5 is 20%. It's the end-result we're looking at here.

    As for Spectral Lure, casting is two dice needing to meet or exceed a base value. In this case 6. The probability of a 6 or higher appearing on two dice is 

    6 13.89
     
    7 16.67
     
    8 13.89
     
    9 11.11
     
    10 8.33
     
    11 5.56
     
    12 2.78

     or a total of 72.22%, like you say. Dropping that cast to a 5+ adds 11.11% to that pool, making it 83.3%. Again, just as you say. Until you factor in the unbind attempt. Those 72% and 83% chances are for your roll, now you have to see if an opponent can snipe it and unbind you. Assuming you made the exact roll you needed to make to cast each time (6) then your opponent needs to roll a 7 to beat your roll, no matter your bonus. They'll have a 58.34% chance to undo you. If you add this in, then your actual chances of getting the cast off is 72-58=14% for the 6 and 83-58=25% for the 5. So, you have a 25% chance at getting the spell through with the +1. So, if I were to correct it I would drop the 30% statement I made down to 25%, which I can do. And honestly, I got the original 30% from TellTaleNoob. I assumed I could shorthand it by stealing his stat.

    And lastly, the 15 attacks statement. This one I need to go back and reword for sure. I don't mean that All-Out Attack will increase your damage by 50%. I'm trying to say that spending a CP on All-Out Attack will be worth more on units that can throw out more attacks in general, and that I personally don't like spending it on units that won't be throwing out at least 15, because 15 seems to be the breakpoint of reasonable attacks you can actually get to throw and is 50% more damage than if you threw any less

    In before that gets challenged, here is my math on it. Let's assume that you have Y unit with X number of attacks and no other buffs. You may or may not have various ways of increasing the number of X, like the Knight of Shrouds on steed's CA or Bladegheists charging. 10 Bladegheist attacks will average 2.96 wounds against a 4 save. 15 attacks will average 4.44 wounds. That's 50% more. For Spirit Hosts, let's say you had 12 vs 18 attacks. 12 is an average of 2.5 wounds and 18 is an average of 3.75 wounds. Again, 50%. This will hold true across most units that have ways of generating both below and above 15 attacks, making it the breakpoint. So, if you want to know where to spend a KoSoES CA, look for places to push the number of attacks to at least 15. And if you are looking for where to spend CA on All-Out Attack, don't waste it on units who will be attacking less than 15 unless it's all you've got (and aren't spending the CP on charge re-rolls instead).

    • Like 1
  4. 8 hours ago, Tamachan said:

    Great article and interesting insights.

    I found that at times, the likelihood statements were slightly confusing or might be even wrong, though.

    Let's take this example:

     

    How did you calculate the 33% increase from a 6+ to a 5+ safe? It's either a 50% increase in relative terms (twice as likely to roll a 5+ than a 6+ terms) or a lot clearer in absolute terms a 33% chance to save instead of a 16.6% chance to save. I think to talk about percentages in absolute terms would be clearer in your text.

    Keep up the great work.

    The chance to roll a 6 on a single six-sider is 16.6%. The chance to roll a 5+ on a single six-sider is 33.3%. It is a total chance of 33% to make the save on any given throw. That is an absolute increase of +16.6%, and relative increase of 50%.

    But, to tell someone they will take either 16.6% or 50% less damage isn't accurate since a player won't be looking at an individual dice throw and would be looking at the total dice they have to roll once their standard saves have failed, a number that is a variable. Assuming the player reading my guide is a beginner (like I was) and would just like to know what to expect with a better save as they toss 3, 4, 5, or more dice hoping for that 5+ Frienzied save, saying you're increasing your chance TO 33% for damage negation is accurate.

    Does that make sense? With Mathhammer we have to be careful not to see the forest for the trees.

    Annotation 2020-06-29 091312.png

  5. Updated again!

    • Added Lens of Refraction (Hysh) to Relics Primed for Corruption
    • Added Talisman of the Watcher (Ulgu) to Relics Primed for Corruption
    • Clarified Know your Tricks under General Tactica to reinforce knowing a battleplan's objective capture rules.
    • Updated Vicious Spell Eaters under Architectures of Torture to better reflect Myrmourn Banshee's self-buff in regards to taking damage and shrugging/returning models.
    • Like 2
  6. 3 hours ago, Snoogens said:

    Would love your feedback on these thoughts, got a game versus Nurgle coming up this weekend. :)

    There's no benefit from having both the Chainghasts and Spirit Torment in range of the Bladegheists unless you mean one buffer unit each for a couple of units of 'gheists.

    Yeah, Reikenor can take a seat if you want to take GoS instead and spend the points on something else. Just be sure to give him the Wychlight so whatever he casts for you you'll get that +1. But if you don't need a caster, or just don't want either of these wizards, you could always throw a Midnight Tome on any of the other heroes.

    I think a real good counter to some Nurgle blight might be the Dolorous Guard, if you could swing it. Since Nurgle will do some mortals pretty certainly and regularly, being able to shift some to the Hexwraiths and then returning the dead ones via Ruler or Olynder would give you some staying power on your general. Worth thinking about.

  7. 8 hours ago, Snoogens said:

    Would you recommend replacing the balewind and barrier with a Chainghast to roam with the Revenants in case I'm up against an opponent that barely has any ranged things going on, such as Maggotkin of Nurgle?

    Sure. There is probably a couple of ways to counter; healing and damage output. Nurgle are spongy, and seem to win their games through a combination of chipping away at armies through mortal wounds and through debuffs. At first blush I'd suggest doing what you could to reverse the chip damage they can reliably put out; if you can just as reliably return the models they can shave off, then you're already ahead when it comes to combat rounds. Beyond that focusing on damage output might help, too. Reroll buffs, KoS +to hit (though expensive against Nurgle), GoS +to wound. Don't forget All Out Attack on units that don't get the buff through other means.

    19 minutes ago, Jabbuk said:

    @EnixLHQ I noticed none of your suggested lists include the Guardian of Souls and I was under the impression that he was mandatory since he's a really good caster for us. What is your opinion on him?

    Definitely not mandatory. A strong optional at best. This is because of what he does, he's a wizard with an unbindable model-return spell and a +1 to wound bubble. If you need another caster with a Nighthaunt Spell Lore and already have Reikenor (or can't afford him), then certainly take him. If you plan on keeping him out of unbind range to cast Spectral Lure, even better. But, point per point, Reikenor is a better caster, and if you want unbinding you get more bang with Myrmourn Banshees.

    I use GoS, just not often. And he just doesn't appear in my stronger lists most of the time.

    19 minutes ago, Jabbuk said:

    @EnixLHQ (really hate this double post bug on phones.. so sorry)

    No worries. Hopefully a mod will see it and delete them. I can't.

    • Thanks 1
  8. 3 hours ago, Jabbuk said:

    Hey @EnixLHQ

    Absolutely love the last part about list building and suggestions. I've been reading the Woe to those Afar list and you reference chainghasts a few times while I believe there isn't any in the list build. Thought I'd mention it. Love the overall strategy though and this is the list is like to go for first.

    You're right. Fixed. That was from an earlier version of that list that didn't do so well.

    • LOVE IT! 1
  9. On 2/18/2020 at 11:26 AM, Dredgejosh said:

    This post is awesome! I do have a question. How would you go about putting together a Knightbomb: list. I'm just curious if you have ever done it or had success with it. I really like the idea. Thank you. 

    I have and it worked, but it can be tricky.

    The Knightbomb is an investment. You will want to build a list around what can support it so that it can be used effectively. In this case that means being able to put the bomb in the Underworlds so you can drop it in your opponent's weak spot without being too exposed until you are ready.

    A smaller front line of threat units that you could consider "temporary" should be next. Something that you push with at the start of the game that draws attention.

    With the rest of your points to try to build out the support needed, like heroes and objective holders, to supplement your on-field units and buy time.

    A list I used (and plan on including above when I can get the time to write the list building section) was the Dolorous Guard and Forgotten Scions for the bomb, The Commended for the objective holders and to steal the ST or Chainghasts for their true purpose, supporting a couple of 10-man Bladegheist units. With the last points I grabbed a Cairn Wraith and the Emerald Host. Deploy how you like.

    The trick will be to make what you don't put into the Underworlds able to pick up your objectives and hold them, pretty much as bait, until you drop the bomb.

  10. 1 hour ago, Nogginnocker said:

    Really excellent write-up. Thank you for this! One correction though, “Wound characteristic” is not the same as “remaining wounds.” It refers to the maximum number of wounds on the warscroll. This is the same mechanic as the Megaboss ability “strength from victory” for Ironjawz.

    You're right. A "characteristic" is what's labeled on the warscroll, but can be modified. Damage isn't a modifier, it's an allotment of wounds. I'll change that later.

    Also, dispelling is FAQed to be a "start of the hero phase" action, so I'll update a tactic concerning that, as well.

    Thanks!

    • Like 1
  11. 13 minutes ago, dmorley21 said:

    This is a tremendous post.

    A couple quick things. First is that the ethereal amulet does nothing for Nighthaunt. We're already ethereal, and allies can't take it.

    Second, I'd definitely add Pendant of the Fell Wind as an artefact worth taking. The +3 movement is absolutely huge in a game of objectives when our models all have Fly.

    Third, I'd definitely include endless spells. Chronomantic Cogs is such a useful spell for Nighthaunt, that I feel that it needs to be mentioned. Using Reikenor to cast Purple Sun or Geminids is also really fun/useful.

    How funny. Ethereal was supposed to be Fel Wind. I referenced it enough in the article, but when I copy/pasted I didn't catch that. I'll fix that soon.

    I'll definitely add some Endless Spells soon.

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