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Submitted By seeda

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Words 3252

Pages 14

SEDA YILDIRIM

2009421051

DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY

MARITIME BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

CONTENTS

Rules of Probability 1

Rule of Multiplication 3

Rule of Addition 3

Classical theory of probability 5

Continuous Probability Distributions 9

Discrete vs. Continuous Variables 11

Binomial Distribution 11

Binomial Probability 12

Poisson Distribution 13

PROBABILITY

Probability is the branch of mathematics that studies the possible outcomes of given events together with the outcomes' relative likelihoods and distributions. In common usage, the word "probability" is used to mean the chance that a particular event (or set of events) will occur expressed on a linear scale from 0 (impossibility) to 1 (certainty), also expressed as a percentage between 0 and 100%. The analysis of events governed by probability is called statistics.

There are several competing interpretations of the actual "meaning" of probabilities. Frequentists view probability simply as a measure of the frequency of outcomes (the more conventional interpretation), while Bayesians treat probability more subjectively as a statistical procedure that endeavors to estimate parameters of an underlying distribution based on the observed distribution.

The conditional probability of an event A assuming that B has occurred, denoted ,equals

The two faces of probability introduces a central ambiguity which has been around for 350 years and still leads to disagreements about when probabilities can be used. For example, if I throw a dice, look at the result but don't show it to you, what is the probability (for you) that it is a 6 In one interpretation it is still 1/6, since you don't know the result, but in another interpretation the probability is either 1 or 0, since the die shows either a 6, or it doesn't.

Rules of Probability

Before discussing the rules of...

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