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Orruk Math-hammer


Magnus The Blue

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I love me some stats, so going to pop together interesting insights I've found pop doing statistical analyses with the new book.  I'll add bits and bobs that I find interesting, but happy to take requests for statistical analyses.  Obviously these examples will never tell the whole story of how units perform on the battlefield so always thing about the winder context. PS: I do all the maths from first principles in a basic spreadsheet to avoid the ambiguity and assumptions in many of the commonly used Math-hammer tools.  

First one that surprised me:

A Sludge Raker averages more damage than a Mawcrusher!

Really surprised me when I realised it.  Without any buff except it's own Venom a Breakerboss on Sludgeraker does 14 wounds against a 4+ save. A Megaboss on Mawcrusha (Gorhacker) averages only 13.72, despite costing 165 points more.  Sure the Megaboss is faster, harder to kill, easier to buff and has some brilliant special rules, but still an interesting finding.

Breakaboss on Troggoth isn't far behind either 12.22 damage when yanking the Troll's chain, but that's even more of a stretch to compare since melee damage is basically the only thing he can contribute and 5" more makes he hard to bring to bare.  Still tempted to try a list with 3 of them though just to unleash bezerka troll madness.

Brutes are less effective in combat than Goregruntas

Ignoring the difference in movement and special rules, point for point, Goregruntas are more efficient than Brutes, even with their fancy new spears. As you can see bellow (damage calcs Vs4+ save) not much in it, but considering Goregruntas are more than twice as fast it a surprise they are similar, let along more efficient.  Makes those Bloodtooths look even more tempting to me! 

Unit name Options +Buffs   Cost Number wounds/model save (X+) Ward Melee Damage Shooting Damage (Vs 4+) Effective wounds Cost/EW Cost/Melee
Brutes Hackas   160.00 5.00 3.00 4.00 0.00 6.78 0.00 30.00 5.33 23.61
Gore-Gruntas Choppas   150.00 3.00 5.00 4.00 0.00 7.41 0.00 30.00 5.00 20.25

Maniac Boarboys are the most efficient damage dealer across all Warclans units

Not a big suprise, but interesting none the less.  Until you start using buffs from heros, other units and command points you just can't beat a unit of 5 charging Icebone Maniac Boarboys for ruining someone's day.  Averaging nearly 6 mortal wounds and just over 5 from failed saves, nothing is safe. Their points cost per melee wound caused (per turn against 4+ save) is the lowest of any unit in the book at 13.13.

Unit name Options +Buffs   Cost Number wounds/model save (X+) Ward Melee Damage Shooting Damage (Vs 4+) Effective wounds Cost/EW Cost/Melee
Maniac Boarboys Icebone + Charge   145.00 5.00 3.00 6.00 6.00 11.04 0.00 21.60 6.71 13.13

 

 

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Thanks for a good post.

- did you take into account that 1 in 5 brutes can take 2' 3a 4+ 3+ -2 2d Gore-Choppa and brute boss can pic 1' 4a 3+ 3+ -1 2d Smasha + Claw?

- +1 to hit ability for brutes, how much dmg they gonna do?

- Tusks and Hooves on Gore Gruntas, 4 attacks per model, how much dmg they gonna do?

 

Mawcrusha probably outdamage sludgedraker after + attacks buff on the boss kicks in. (sludgedraker is great though). Maybe GW really want us to go Da Choppas if we are going mass brutes/ardboyz, IJ clans are basically free buffs now,

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In general I wouldnt math anything against a 4+ save, these days its most likely a 3+ if not even lower and if the save is worse then it typically wont matter. The question these days is "how do I kill this 3+ (or 2+) monster? can I deal enough damage?". I also dont think you are factoring in +1 damage from Warchanter, which will always be on the unit when fighting tbh. 

But yeah, Gore Gruntas are surprisingly good. I do believe Brutes pull ahead if they fight a 4+ wound target from the extra +1 hit, but considering how mobile GGs are I have a hard time fielding Brutes in my lists.

Edited by Kasper
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3 hours ago, trolemon said:

I have a request for some orruk mathhammer: how many mortal wounds will a wurrgog prophet do with his mask on average before he dies if you keep rolling? With a 4+ ward from glowin tattoos he could probably tank a fair few D6 mortals on himself

I am not 100% sure but it should be something like that, assuming target has unlimited wounds. 10 000 sims.

Wurgog ward 6+: 12.962
Wurgog ward 4+: 19.3266

edit: there is also possibility of using Amulet of Destiny:

Wurgog ward 5+: 15.2925

 

Edited by Boar
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On 9/22/2021 at 6:03 PM, dnusha said:

Thanks for a good post.

- did you take into account that 1 in 5 brutes can take 2' 3a 4+ 3+ -2 2d Gore-Choppa and brute boss can pic 1' 4a 3+ 3+ -1 2d Smasha + Claw?

- +1 to hit ability for brutes, how much dmg they gonna do?

- Tusks and Hooves on Gore Gruntas, 4 attacks per model, how much dmg they gonna do?

 

Mawcrusha probably outdamage sludgedraker after + attacks buff on the boss kicks in. (sludgedraker is great though). Maybe GW really want us to go Da Choppas if we are going mass brutes/ardboyz, IJ clans are basically free buffs now,

Yes, took into account the Gore-choppa and Smash/Claw on the Brutes

+1 to hit brings the Brutes up to 8.76 damage a turn and 18.26 points/melee damage, so slightly better than Gore Gruntas, but situational.  

I included mount attacks in the Gruntas calculation. 

 

Absolutely, the Mawcrusher is much more likely to get buffed up for lots of reasons (both are great really).

 

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On 9/24/2021 at 7:43 AM, trolemon said:

I have a request for some orruk mathhammer: how many mortal wounds will a wurrgog prophet do with his mask on average before he dies if you keep rolling? With a 4+ ward from glowin tattoos he could probably tank a fair few D6 mortals on himself

 

On 9/24/2021 at 10:55 AM, Boar said:

I am not 100% sure but it should be something like that, assuming target has unlimited wounds. 10 000 sims.

Wurgog ward 6+: 12.962
Wurgog ward 4+: 19.3266

edit: there is also possibility of using Amulet of Destiny:

Wurgog ward 5+: 15.2925

 

I did the maths and got similar but slightly lower results. Obviously this is the most swingy thing ever, bit the potential to toss out 20 mortal wounds+ is great for mind games as well as actually sniping stuff.  The fact that this damage is in the hero phase is also great (when in range) as it lets you easily free up units that are trapped in combat.

6+ ward  
Ward 0.1666666667
Wounds 7
Rolls before self destruction 7.2
Damage 10.93333333
   
   
5+ Ward  
Ward 0.3333333333
Wounds 7
Rolls before self destruction 9
Damage 13.33333333
   
4+ Ward  
Ward 0.5
Wounds 7
Rolls before self destruction 12
Damage 17.33333333

 

 

Edited by Magnus The Blue
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On 9/23/2021 at 8:06 AM, Kasper said:

In general I wouldnt math anything against a 4+ save, these days its most likely a 3+ if not even lower and if the save is worse then it typically wont matter. The question these days is "how do I kill this 3+ (or 2+) monster? can I deal enough damage?". I also dont think you are factoring in +1 damage from Warchanter, which will always be on the unit when fighting tbh. 

But yeah, Gore Gruntas are surprisingly good. I do believe Brutes pull ahead if they fight a 4+ wound target from the extra +1 hit, but considering how mobile GGs are I have a hard time fielding Brutes in my lists.

Yeah 3+ is more common now-a-days but 5+/6+ aren't unheard of, which is why I use 4+.  One day I'll do a proper distribution model to allow for this variation, but not today.

I've ignored the War-chater buff for simplicity with these examples as things get very complex very quickly when you allow for all the various buff options.  Unless your playing 3+ war-chanters and/or your opponent lacks mobility having that buff up isn't guaranteed.  I've often Alpha struck or outflanked Iron jaws to get favourable combats with unbuffed units.

For me Brutes are their for an easy to use reinforced unit to run up the middle of the board, take centre and counter attack as necessary. 5 Orruk units just feel worse than Gruntas.

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@Magnus The Blue quick question i'm not sure i follow the extra iteration for mask. Prochet die after exactly 12 rolls, i get to 16 damages with the 4++ (12 * 4/6 *2)

 

On 9/23/2021 at 3:06 AM, Kasper said:

In general I wouldnt math anything against a 4+ save, these days its most likely a 3+ if not even lower and if the save is worse then it typically wont matter. The question these days is "how do I kill this 3+ (or 2+) monster? can I deal enough damage?".

it's still a good approximation when calculating damage per point for a specific unit. 4+ will be a very common save. Also even if you use 3+ as a baseline most unit will keep the same ranking (you'll swap some rend 2 unit with no rend unit for exemple). But from a general perspective 4+ is a good middle ground. You just have to keep in mind that high rend unit get better as save goes down.

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2 minutes ago, Boar said:

With initial roll taken into account perhaps? 2/3 chance for on average 2 MW ie. additional 1,33 so 17,33

Man good catch. I didn't realize that the first roll was protected from self-destruct (i've good the french book and surprisingly find it harder to read ability correctly lol) ! So 17.33 is indeed correct.

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Quick one today.  What's the average cost (in terms of wounds take) for taking down different targets with a Waggog's Mask

Target wounds Rolls to kill Mortals taken 6+Ward 4+ Ward
5 3.75 3.208333333 2.673611111 1.604166667
10 7.5 7.583333333 6.319444444 3.791666667
15 11.25 11.95833333 9.965277778 5.979166667
20 15 16.33333333 13.61111111 8.166666667

So if you're rocking Glowing Tattoos you can happily through out 10 mortals wounds a turn if you've got some decent healing near by (heroic action, Wardocs or Emerald Lifeswarm would do it). 

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  • 3 months later...
On 9/29/2021 at 7:10 AM, Magnus The Blue said:

Quick one today.  What's the average cost (in terms of wounds take) for taking down different targets with a Waggog's Mask

 

 

Target wounds Rolls to kill Mortals taken 6+Ward 4+ Ward
5 3.75 3.208333333 2.673611111 1.604166667
10 7.5 7.583333333 6.319444444 3.791666667
15 11.25 11.95833333 9.965277778 5.979166667
20 15 16.33333333 13.61111111 8.166666667

So if you're rocking Glowing Tattoos you can happily through out 10 mortals wounds a turn if you've got some decent healing near by (heroic action, Wardocs or Emerald Lifeswarm would do it). 

Did you know that a Warchanter with Fixin’ Beat can target the Wurgog Prophet? :)

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