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Bonesplitters are brilliant now and the maths that show it.


Magnus The Blue
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Ok,

So I think it's fair to say that the reception has been mixed at best for the new Bonesplitters.  As a long terms Bonesplitters player I get the negativity, we've lots a lot of our cool rules and our magic game in particular has really suffered but we have some new cool rules (love the Waggok stare and the Waaagh is great) but also I think we're actually more competitive.  Mainly because our damage output has skyrocketed.  Spirit of Gorkamoka + Icebone represents a MASSIVE damage increase for almost all our units (when over 5 models).

Here are some numbers:

Lets assume we're going Icebone and fighting against 4+ Saves.

Old style 4+/4+ attack would have 1/8 or 12.5% chance of doing an unsaved wounding hit.

Add in Spirits and this goes up to 1/6 or 16.666%

Icebone on top makes it 2/9 or 22.2%

So without buffs or units specific charge bonuses chance of damage has gone from 12.5% to 22.2%, that's a HUGE 77.777% relative increase in damage and almost army wide. I don't think any army has ever has such a crazy increase in damage output. 

I'll put all the workings and some more detailed analysis up later: obviously points have gone up and attacks down for some units, but it's generally a net gain across the board with some outstanding winners.

Edited by Magnus The Blue
typo
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Spoiler

Allegiance: Bonesplitterz

Leaders
Maniak Weirdnob (130)
Wardokk (85)
Wardokk (85)

Battleline
30 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (390)
- Reinforced x 2
20 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (260)
- Reinforced x 1
20 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (260)
- Reinforced x 1
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)

Total: 1860 / 2000
Reinforced Units: 4 / 4
Allies: 0 / 400
Wounds: 256
Drops: 11

This is 2000 points, 3 shots each in bonegrinz, be an absolute nightmare to remove them all. Also worth noting that the maniak weirdnob can actually take a mount trait because the monster keyword is only a prerequisite for 3 of the 6 mount traits.

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Here is a more detailed breakdown for the same situation 4+ to hit and wound:

  % chance Relative difference to other scenarios
  Hit Wound Failed save Doing damage S1 S2 S3 S4
S1: No bonus 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% 12.50% 0.00% -10.01% -25.00% -43.75%
S2: Old Icebone 50.00% 50.00% 55.56% 13.89% 11.11% -0.01% -16.67% -37.50%
S3: New. Not icebone 66.67% 50.00% 50.00% 16.67% 33.33% 19.99% 0.00% -25.00%
S4: New icebone 66.67% 50.00% 66.67% 22.22% 77.78% 59.99% 33.33% 0.00%

As you can (hopefully) see, even compared to old Icebone (which basically cost you an artifact to use), you've still got a 60% increase in damage now for the same attacks.

Losing the magic feels like much less of a blow now I've look at this.  Sure stacking buffs is hard for us now, but we don't really need them (offensively).  This makes use less dependant on heros and removes one of our major weakspots (hero sniping).

Seems like a fundamental shift in the way the army plays from being high defence (through tonnes of wounds and save stacking) we've gone to much more damage but worse defence (more expensive wounds and harder to save stack with nerfed Wardoks).  

I'm going to add analysis of specific units to this thread over time.  Feel free to request any specific stuff you want me to explore.

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3 minutes ago, Magnus The Blue said:

Losing the magic feels like much less of a blow now I've look at this.  Sure stacking buffs is hard for us now, but we don't really need them (offensively).  This makes use less dependant on heros and removes one of our major weakspots (hero sniping).

One point is that with so many heafty casters dominating the meta atm relying on spells to do stuff is just asking to get dumped on.

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4 minutes ago, Malakree said:

One point is that with so many heafty casters dominating the meta atm relying on spells to do stuff is just asking to get dumped on.

This is very true.  We could get through against all but the best casters (easy to get +3 or better to cast), but all it takes is Naggash or Telcis to ruin your day.

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Here is my first unit analysis: Big Stabbas.

They lose the d6 vs monsters and run and charge, but become defensively much better (big points drop) and offensively much better (except against monsters). Again assuming 4+ save (better saves make the stats better for new icebone)

Unit name Options +Buffs Cost Melee Damage Effective wounds Cost per EW Cost/Melee Defencive change Offensive change
Offensive change V Monsters
Big Stabbas Old 110.00 4.44 11.52 9.55 24.75 0.00% 0.00% n/a
Big Stabbas Old, Vs Monsters 110.00 7.78 11.52 9.55 14.14 0.00% 42.86% 0.00%
Big Stabbas New 80.00 4.44 11.52 6.94 18.00 27.27% 27.27% -27.27%
Big Stabbas New, Icebone 80.00 4.67 11.52 6.94 17.14 27.27% 30.74% -21.21%

The lack of run and charge will definitely be felt but they are points for point nearly 1/3rd much more survivable and doing more damage Vs non monsters.

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40 minutes ago, Magnus The Blue said:

This is very true.  We could get through against all but the best casters (easy to get +3 or better to cast), but all it takes is Naggash or Telcis to ruin your day.

I was routinely getting a 4+ casting bonus, was casting 5 spells a turn, and dispelling 6 thanks to the Drakkfoot commandability. Each caster had utility and damage potential. I was going toe to toe with the big boy casters. Now Mork's Boney Bits relies on being up close to an enemy monster before providing any bonuses, and is therefore unreliable. I also have to choose between getting my casting bonus from the Wardokks or casting a spell now. Before I could do both and do a prayer as well. 

Regarding Icebone boars. Here is the test... Before the nerf, I could take a unit of 30 arrowboys and a wardokk for brutal beast spirits and on average deal 22 regular wounds and an additional 15 mortal wounds on top of that if curse went off. Show me how the piggies surpass that.

Edited by bonzai
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28 minutes ago, bonzai said:

Regarding Icebone boars. Here is the test... Before the nerf, I could take a unit of 30 arrowboys and a wardokk for brutal beast spirits and on average deal 22 regular wounds and an additional 15 mortal wounds on top of that if curse went off. Show me how the piggies surpass that.

Good idea

So assuming Beast spirits and curse both happen for the old Arrow boyz.  Total costs 390 + 85 = 475points

In terms of piggies, lets so 3 units of 5 Maniacs: 435 points.

Against 4+ saves:

Arrow boys are doing 11.25 failed saves plus 15 mortals wounds: 26.25 damage total

3 units of Pigs (charging + icebone) are doing 19.875 failed saves plus 13.25 mortals: 33.125 damage total

Piggies doing about 26% more damage

Against no save:

Arrow boys are doing 22.5 failed saves plus 15 mortals wounds: 37.5 damage total

3 units of Pigs (charging + icebone) are doing 39.75 failed saves plus 13.25 mortals: 53 damage total

Piggies doing about 41% more damage.

Obviously lots of dependencies on both sides and it's a bit apples Vs oranges but interesting to see the comparison between them in near ideal circumstances.

 

Edited by Magnus The Blue
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46 minutes ago, Magnus The Blue said:

Obviously lots of dependencies on both sides and it's a bit apples Vs oranges but interesting to see the comparison between them in near ideal circumstances.

 

One of the big issues ist arroeboyz are a single activation, whereas 3 units of Maniaks are 3 activations. This gives the opponent a chance to damage the unit which will reduce their fighting effectiveness since it drops them below 5 models.

That said, you can give a Maniak Weirdnob the Fast 'Un mount trait which lets it make a normal move in the hero phase. Theoretically if you went first and with an 8" Tireless Trackers pregame move, the Weirdnob could move 20" then cast GorkaMorka's War Cry, make the enemy unit fight last.

THEN you said in the Boys.

Unless you play against Teclis :c

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6 minutes ago, Shirtripper said:

One of the big issues ist arroeboyz are a single activation, whereas 3 units of Maniaks are 3 activations. This gives the opponent a chance to damage the unit which will reduce their fighting effectiveness since it drops them below 5 models.

That said, you can give a Maniak Weirdnob the Fast 'Un mount trait which lets it make a normal move in the hero phase. Theoretically if you went first and with an 8" Tireless Trackers pregame move, the Weirdnob could move 20" then cast GorkaMorka's War Cry, make the enemy unit fight last.

THEN you said in the Boys.

Unless you play against Teclis :c

Oh yeah, lots of moving parts both ways.  For the Arrow boys it's pulling off curse against a juicy target (50/50 even of you are in range) without it the arrow boys are only doing about as much damage as one unit of charging Maniacs.

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1 minute ago, Shirtripper said:

One of the big issues ist arroeboyz are a single activation, whereas 3 units of Maniaks are 3 activations. This gives the opponent a chance to damage the unit which will reduce their fighting effectiveness since it drops them below 5 models.

That said, you can give a Maniak Weirdnob the Fast 'Un mount trait which lets it make a normal move in the hero phase. Theoretically if you went first and with an 8" Tireless Trackers pregame move, the Weirdnob could move 20" then cast GorkaMorka's War Cry, make the enemy unit fight last.

THEN you said in the Boys.

Unless you play against Teclis :c

Yeah, a better comparison would be 10 Maniacs with a shaman behind them giving the same buff (+1 to hit). 8 would make it into combat due to coherency. 

I will say what I said on the other thread. I am not disputing that Icebone Boar spam can be effective. My main issue is that it is pretty much all we have now. We had the ability to get exploding 6's in the last book. Now it is army wide and that is great. But it came with a hit to a lot of our bonus attacks, our casting, and our ranged effectiveness. Our options across the board have been cut, and those that remain were either nerfed or remained status quo. So when people say how much better we are now, I take exception. GW ran us over with a truck  and then were kind enough to hand us a crutch.

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4 hours ago, Malakree said:
  Hide contents

Allegiance: Bonesplitterz

Leaders
Maniak Weirdnob (130)
Wardokk (85)
Wardokk (85)

Battleline
30 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (390)
- Reinforced x 2
20 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (260)
- Reinforced x 1
20 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (260)
- Reinforced x 1
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)

Total: 1860 / 2000
Reinforced Units: 4 / 4
Allies: 0 / 400
Wounds: 256
Drops: 11

This is 2000 points, 3 shots each in bonegrinz, be an absolute nightmare to remove them all. Also worth noting that the maniak weirdnob can actually take a mount trait because the monster keyword is only a prerequisite for 3 of the 6 mount traits.

Sounds like a nightmare to fight. Go for it!

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5 hours ago, Malakree said:
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Allegiance: Bonesplitterz

Leaders
Maniak Weirdnob (130)
Wardokk (85)
Wardokk (85)

Battleline
30 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (390)
- Reinforced x 2
20 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (260)
- Reinforced x 1
20 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (260)
- Reinforced x 1
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)
10 x Savage Orruk Arrowboys (130)

Total: 1860 / 2000
Reinforced Units: 4 / 4
Allies: 0 / 400
Wounds: 256
Drops: 11

This is 2000 points, 3 shots each in bonegrinz, be an absolute nightmare to remove them all. Also worth noting that the maniak weirdnob can actually take a mount trait because the monster keyword is only a prerequisite for 3 of the 6 mount traits.

Arrowboys are 145 now, Wardokks are 80, wierdnob is 100. You can still run the same list, but it puts you right at 2k.

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Just now, bonzai said:

Arrowboys are 145 now, Wardokks are 80, wierdnob is 100. You can still run the same list, but it puts you right at 2k.

Yeah i know, I didn't bother to update the points etc but that's why it's 130 points under, because it's 2k with the new points 😉

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3 hours ago, bonzai said:

Yeah, a better comparison would be 10 Maniacs with a shaman behind them giving the same buff (+1 to hit). 8 would make it into combat due to coherency. 

I will say what I said on the other thread. I am not disputing that Icebone Boar spam can be effective. My main issue is that it is pretty much all we have now. We had the ability to get exploding 6's in the last book. Now it is army wide and that is great. But it came with a hit to a lot of our bonus attacks, our casting, and our ranged effectiveness. Our options across the board have been cut, and those that remain were either nerfed or remained status quo. So when people say how much better we are now, I take exception. GW ran us over with a truck  and then were kind enough to hand us a crutch.

For sure. I'm in it more for the memes now that anything.

*Looks at 6 big bosses*

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2 hours ago, Lord Krungharr said:

Did the new Orruks Tome rules get leaked?!  I just saw a Bonesplitterz army finish almost last in a 44 person event.  That was the old tome though.

Yes. There are several YouTube videos where they cover all the rules.

 

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9 hours ago, bonzai said:

Regarding Icebone boars. Here is the test... Before the nerf, I could take a unit of 30 arrowboys and a wardokk for brutal beast spirits and on average deal 22 regular wounds and an additional 15 mortal wounds on top of that if curse went off. Show me how the piggies surpass that.

I think the big thing there is that Arrow Boys were putting damage wherever they wanted it, whereas Boars intrinsically don't do that (combat unit) and have also been slowed down significantly (Breath gone) and can't jump over screens (Breath gone).  So you've gone from engaging on your terms to engaging on your opponent's terms, and that's something that's hard to capture in raw stats.

Overall my concern here is that the win condition for Bonesplitterz was not hyper damage*, so benchmarking the current output of something like Pigs against their old output is not necessarily going to win you games.  I've played Bonesplitterz at events as much as most people, and from both my experience and what success I've seen from others it was mostly can't-retreat Bonegrinz wound spam (removed from the army via the Warclan) and then in early 3rd Ed, Drakkfoot Curse Arrowboys (removed from the army via the Priest keyword). 

My point here is that I actually don't mind moving on and seeing different units (pigs) and a different Warclan (Icebone) having their time to shine.  I've already ordered more pigs, because although I'm currently pretty down on the army I'm not giving up on it.  But if we should be ready to move on (we should), that works both ways, and using the old, puny damage output as a benchmark - when that is observably not what won them games - is interesting, but not definitive.  If we're going to be a vanilla combat army, with no teleports or particularly fast units, we need to benchmark against actual combat armies.  I play a few of those, and all of them have me more excited than Bonesplitterz do right now.

I think there's a real risk that Bonesplitterz have moved from being a solid, high-movement attrition army (with precision burst damage) to a mediocre and much more predictable combat army.  Also worth pointing out that the army has been slowed down further via musicians nerfed to +1" charge.  I believe that all these movement nerfs will be a large cumulative impact - let's see how it plays out, but that's something that comes to light when you move from looking at damage tables to putting the army on the table.  If you don't have the delivery mechanism, you are in trouble - especially for an army with bad armour saves and terrible bravery.  With Bonesplitterz, you're where you need to be or you're dead, there is no inbetween.

*with the exception of something like Big Stabbas into monsters, which has also been stripped out, and perhaps more importantly has lost its delivery mechanism (no access to double move and fly, no access to run and charge).  Worth noting that they are also frozen out of the new exploding 6s rule

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Also @Magnus The Blue just wanted to say thanks for the topic, it's a good discussion to have. 

I'm not trying to dismiss your analysis blindly and I can see a lot of work went into it - just wanted to add another perspective to the discussion that I also think it important.

Stats x Delivery Mechanism = Success

I think where my own head is at is that the former has had a big lift, the latter has had a big drop and we'll need to put it on the table to see where it all washes out.  

I tend to weight things like movement and range very heavily, so I'm extremely cautious about where this army stands right now, but I hope we can all enjoy discussing it in a good spirit on this thread.  Thanks for posting it.

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5 hours ago, PlasticCraic said:

I think the big thing there is that Arrow Boys were putting damage wherever they wanted it, whereas Boars intrinsically don't do that (combat unit) and have also been slowed down significantly (Breath gone) and can't jump over screens (Breath gone).  So you've gone from engaging on your terms to engaging on your opponent's terms, and that's something that's hard to capture in raw stats.

Overall my concern here is that the win condition for Bonesplitterz was not hyper damage*, so benchmarking the current output of something like Pigs against their old output is not necessarily going to win you games.  I've played Bonesplitterz at events as much as most people, and from both my experience and what success I've seen from others it was mostly can't-retreat Bonegrinz wound spam (removed from the army via the Warclan) and then in early 3rd Ed, Drakkfoot Curse Arrowboys (removed from the army via the Priest keyword). 

My point here is that I actually don't mind moving on and seeing different units (pigs) and a different Warclan (Icebone) having their time to shine.  I've already ordered more pigs, because although I'm currently pretty down on the army I'm not giving up on it.  But if we should be ready to move on (we should), that works both ways, and using the old, puny damage output as a benchmark - when that is observably not what won them games - is interesting, but not definitive.  If we're going to be a vanilla combat army, with no teleports or particularly fast units, we need to benchmark against actual combat armies.  I play a few of those, and all of them have me more excited than Bonesplitterz do right now.

I think there's a real risk that Bonesplitterz have moved from being a solid, high-movement attrition army (with precision burst damage) to a mediocre and much more predictable combat army.  Also worth pointing out that the army has been slowed down further via musicians nerfed to +1" charge.  I believe that all these movement nerfs will be a large cumulative impact - let's see how it plays out, but that's something that comes to light when you move from looking at damage tables to putting the army on the table.  If you don't have the delivery mechanism, you are in trouble - especially for an army with bad armour saves and terrible bravery.  With Bonesplitterz, you're where you need to be or you're dead, there is no inbetween.

*with the exception of something like Big Stabbas into monsters, which has also been stripped out, and perhaps more importantly has lost its delivery mechanism (no access to double move and fly, no access to run and charge).  Worth noting that they are also frozen out of the new exploding 6s rule

I agree with your concerns. I think at the end we will be a B+ tier with Icebone spam. Better than the likes of Beastmen and Gitz, but A tier and better will absolutely spank us. 

Unlike you, I am very resistant to changing my Warclan. I have been a Drakkfoot player from the beginning. Paying nearly a quarter of my points for the freaking Battalions to do so. But at least they were useful. In the Kunning Rukk dominated landscape, I was the wierdo running Kopp Rukk and Drakkfoot. Ramping up my casting bonuses so that I could cast the Drakkfoot spell and even summon in an incarnate Elemental of Beasts. When the elemental died, it triggers various army abilities. I could fight 4 times in my turn with a unit of boarboy Maniacs when everything worked out with additional attacks from the Wurrgog, the spell, and their own rule. It wasn't top tier by any stretch, but it was extremely different, and full of character.

2nd edition changed a lot, but I could play in a similar style, and Drakkfoot was still very viable and in some ways improved. Even with 3rd edition, although we took some hits, they were hits every army took. At the same time, we had some great wins in the priest tag on Wardokks, Unleash hell, and rally. I was excited to play, and had a blast in the games that I got to play. Now my Warclan has been reduced to a single sentence. While no wards against my attacks sound nice, it is limited. My mortal wound output doesn't come from actual attacks, so ward saves will work against them. Big Stabbas and rogue Idols are the only rend 2 options we have to punch through saves. The only other way to leverage their ability is through weight of attacks, and that is a challenge with the new rules and point hikes. The fun and flavor is gone, and the play style that I have enjoyed since the first battle tome dropped is on life support.

I saw the stormcast book review today, and they faired about the same. The new models got a lot of love, and everything else was stripped down. My concern is that GW is not known for sticking with their guns. Especially when they seem to want to tone things down.. They always change direction mid edition. Especially if it is something brand new and they want to push the models. Here we are, the first release of the new edition. Every other army has their full rules at their disposal, and the power creep will only go up from the low bar we set.

Hell, my 2nd army is FEC. I really don't want a new battle tome at this point if it means getting this kind of treatment.

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8 hours ago, PlasticCraic said:

I think the big thing there is that Arrow Boys were putting damage wherever they wanted it, whereas Boars intrinsically don't do that (combat unit) and have also been slowed down significantly (Breath gone) and can't jump over screens (Breath gone).  So you've gone from engaging on your terms to engaging on your opponent's terms, and that's something that's hard to capture in raw stats.

Overall my concern here is that the win condition for Bonesplitterz was not hyper damage*, so benchmarking the current output of something like Pigs against their old output is not necessarily going to win you games.  I've played Bonesplitterz at events as much as most people, and from both my experience and what success I've seen from others it was mostly can't-retreat Bonegrinz wound spam (removed from the army via the Warclan) and then in early 3rd Ed, Drakkfoot Curse Arrowboys (removed from the army via the Priest keyword). 

My point here is that I actually don't mind moving on and seeing different units (pigs) and a different Warclan (Icebone) having their time to shine.  I've already ordered more pigs, because although I'm currently pretty down on the army I'm not giving up on it.  But if we should be ready to move on (we should), that works both ways, and using the old, puny damage output as a benchmark - when that is observably not what won them games - is interesting, but not definitive.  If we're going to be a vanilla combat army, with no teleports or particularly fast units, we need to benchmark against actual combat armies.  I play a few of those, and all of them have me more excited than Bonesplitterz do right now.

I think there's a real risk that Bonesplitterz have moved from being a solid, high-movement attrition army (with precision burst damage) to a mediocre and much more predictable combat army.  Also worth pointing out that the army has been slowed down further via musicians nerfed to +1" charge.  I believe that all these movement nerfs will be a large cumulative impact - let's see how it plays out, but that's something that comes to light when you move from looking at damage tables to putting the army on the table.  If you don't have the delivery mechanism, you are in trouble - especially for an army with bad armour saves and terrible bravery.  With Bonesplitterz, you're where you need to be or you're dead, there is no inbetween.

*with the exception of something like Big Stabbas into monsters, which has also been stripped out, and perhaps more importantly has lost its delivery mechanism (no access to double move and fly, no access to run and charge).  Worth noting that they are also frozen out of the new exploding 6s rule

I agree with almost everything you're saying.  The damage/attrition stats are only part of the picture, the main point I am trying to make with that we have lost a lot, absolutely but we have also gained a lot.  

The Arrow boys Vs Piggies was just something I did because someone asked for it, so much difference between the two when on the tabletop that it's hard to draw any conclusions from it.

I do not think we'll ever be an S Tier army (without silly points reductions) but I do think there is more than one solid B+,A- level army in the Bonesplitters. If they FAQ to allow us to ally in IronJaws/Kuelboyz, we're get another bump in power to (Sloggoth is the most obvious addition).

Lack of speed is definitely a worry, but that fact we can always pop in Great Hunter and 3.0's smaller board helps a lot.

I do hate that we lost Breath of Mork specifically (Kunning Beast spirits is annoying, but we have Mystic Shield).

I think the main advantage of Icebone isn't actually the raw damage output, it the fact that any of our units can now do meaningful damage to even the most heavy armoured enemy, which means less reliance on Big Stabbas/Rogue Idols.  Combined with less reliance on heros (mainly because they are worse), I think it means our armies will be much more horde like (although likely multiple minimum units rather than a few big blobs) swapping the board with dangerous naked Orruks.  Quite different to what we are used to in from 2.0 but more like how I imagine Bonesplittas fight in the mortal realms. 

Worth pointing out I definitely think normal Savage Orruks are over costed, but I think it's the only one of our units that is.

Will do some more points based efficiency Stats over the coming days, but for now I need to do some work :D

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