Rumours on low Dominion sales - discussion

[Chikout]

2 minutes ago, Eternalis said:

Hum... Here in France that's not the case AT ALL. Many LGS are struggling and are angry at GW politics.

You don't know how many boxes you'll get to sell, they are expensive as hell (way more than some other brands), you're forced to have some boxes (you know, the boxes no one wants to buy) in your store or your contract with GW is canceled (and of course you're forced to pay for them...).
Many french stores decided to stop doing a discount on GW products because they couldn't handle it anymore, and because of that people buy more and more on Wayland...

Here, GW told LGS that a second run of production will be made for a release in November. LGS told their customers that because they were only able to pre-order 10 boxes for the July release, people could order a box for November if they're not in a hurry.
The problem is : LGS didn't know they'll only get 10 boxes before they tried to pre-order them, so they had to cancel many people orders... People went mad and just ordered it on GW website.

How is that positive for any "small" LGS? You don't know what you'll be able to sell because GW politics is all about their website and official Warhammer Stores.

Ok. Fair enough. I was unaware of some of those details. 

[NauticalSoup]

1 hour ago, Chikout said:

One interesting thing is that the way GW products sell has been very good for FLGS. 

This is pretty questionable from what I've seen in Canada. Having stuff to sell is nice but the amount of leverage a company like GW can exert on a small store is colossal. They can demand outrageous concessions of floor space while jerking you around on supply and there's nothing you can do about it - if GW products sell in your area it's a core part of your market so you suck it up and do what they want. All the while GW's direct online sales model exists to gut your income by making it the strictly more convenient option and killing a lot of the value proposition of going through your FLGS, especially if said FLGS can't afford to eat some kind of discounted rate on the already narrow margin.

At my local store I remember vividly gigantic stacks of Silver Tower and original Stormcast/BoK starter boxes being used as podiums on which to place other product, sellable product - then later just kind of jammed in a corner where they wouldn't take up too much space. I remember the same thing happening with Soul Wars boxes resulting in several being given away as prizes at the same casual tourney. I suspect if stores had the option a lot would probably opt out of selling AoS product entirely.

Our store is healthy enough I think to weather a certain amount of this but I can't imagine how terrifying it would be to operate a small one on a delicately balanced margin when GW can throw you under the bus at any time and you can't do anything about it.

[HollowHills]

I would say GW relationship with LGS is variable at best.

It may be the case that big retailers, element games, Wayland games etc, can get very favorable mark ups but I don't think that is universal. I understand that a small to medium LGS makes very little on selling GW products. Plus as others have said they are forced to stock various products which may not sell at all.

For instance the Firestorm army boxes were in stock at my local for years. They even reduced them to 50% off rrp at a sale day and no one bought them.

Also when the new paint range launched stores had to buy the entire new range, return the old range and pay for a new display stand.

Plus the stores have to compete with online retailers that may be able to offer 20-30% discounts when they can only afford 10-15%. They might see their "customers" play in store, but buy their models from other retailers. 

[The Red King]

Feels like a few things to me. 

 

Positive: The queue system probably turned a lot of people off but it also probably severely cut down on the scalping and without the FoMo of a massive sell off the scalpers didn't bother trying to game it further because nobody is going to pay their scalper prices unless they cant get it cheaper. The only risk here is GW dropping the queue system for (insert positive spin business speak) when in reality they decided theyd rather sell to scalpers than not at all.

 

Negative: GW failed to make stormcast into space marines so their next plan was to make them into PRIMARIS space marines. Which is just monumentally dumb. All the old marine style anger of "are they discontinuing my models?" Without any of the years and years of loyal use. I mean seriously stormcast 5 years old plastic kits are (at least potentially) being entirely  replaced while other factions languish with 20 year old models. This is bad for the languishing factions and bad for the stormcast players and until the book comes out showing that it is (or is not) a huge power creep on their original units people are understandably weary. Combine this with the fact that the Kruelboyz are an entire unknown as well and you have lots of reasons to wait.

 

Negative but not GW fault: I mean lets be real, some of us have been marginally financially affected or not at all by this last years pandemic but the economy is not flush with spending power right now. It's a hard sell to get someone into this hobby even when they aren't risking foreclosure due to the pandemic (no political discourse here but in the US at least we didn't have much safety net) so I wouldnt expect it to sell very well in general. Add to that the uncertainty of not really having the rules before buying the product and I'm not surprised IF it didnt sell as well.

 

That said my local area is full of interest for 3.0 and dominion.

[azdimy]

1 hour ago, Eternalis said:

Hum... Here in France that's not the case AT ALL. Many LGS are struggling and are angry at GW politics.

You don't know how many boxes you'll get to sell, they are expensive as hell (way more than some other brands), you're forced to have some boxes (you know, the boxes no one wants to buy) in your store or your contract with GW is canceled (and of course you're forced to pay for them...).
Many french stores decided to stop doing a discount on GW products because they couldn't handle it anymore, and because of that people buy more and more on Wayland...

Here, GW told LGS that a second run of production will be made for a release in November. LGS told their customers that because they were only able to pre-order 10 boxes for the July release, people could order a box for November if they're not in a hurry.
The problem is : LGS didn't know they'll only get 10 boxes before they tried to pre-order them, so they had to cancel many people orders... People went mad and just ordered it on GW website.

How is that positive for any "small" LGS? You don't know what you'll be able to sell because GW politics is all about their website and official Warhammer Stores.

GW pulled a similar tactic in my area in the USA. My LGS was told he would be allocated 30 dominion boxes and had all his preorders allocated and the week when the gw website preorder goes live, he was told he would only be allocated half and the second half would come some months later

[Neverchosen]

I for one am happy that they were able to meet the demand. I just ordered my box from a local hobby store. It was a pretty big purchase for me financially but it nets me essentially half an army. Still not sure what to do with the other half. I might gift it to a friend for trade bate or to another friend as a promise that if he picks up the eventual starter to give me the Stormcast half... many decisions. Still I am happy to have some Angelic warriors to paint up as opponents for my Chaos and Ogres.

I say overproduce as I am not a fan of artificial scarcity. I am not a 40k fan but I would have likely tried 9th edition if I ever actually saw Indomitus in person. Oh well I am happier with wizards and dragons then psykers and tanks.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Neverchosen

[Elmir]

I don't feel this game needs a new edition tbh. We've not been able to game in the last year and even with Covid restrictions being reduced, there just doesn't seem to be much excitement to play AoS or 40k around here. The current problems with the game also have nothing to do with the core rules imo, but busted warscrolls/allegiance abilities causing NPE. 

I ordered lots of things via my FLGS and their delivery has been one colossal sh*tshow.  They only box that came through was... Cursed City so far. I'm also the only local player who even bothered to order the GHB at this stage.... And I still haven't received my SBGL pre-orders from GW. 

I also don't feel too excited to play a game with the powercreep that's going on. There's also quite a few players locally with painted armies who have become so bad over time, that the motivation to take them out just is at an all time low. 



So it's not just GWs FOMO sales tactics, it's mostly their churn and burn rules release pace. People are really tired of GW "the book company". 

[Nick in York]

I do like what I've seen of the 3rd Ed. rules but I agree with some others that it is too early for a new edition. I don't get to play as much as I'd like due to work, not having close friends who play and other life things. So, 3 years per edition just feels like not enough time. However, I'm aware that plenty of others do play more than I do but over a year of 2nd Ed.'s cycle was during the pandemic when less games would have been played in general.

As for the Dominion box; I don't generally buy large boxes GW releases. I tend to build up my collection slowly, one smaller box or hero at a time. I do really like the look of the Krule Boyz though. 

On a positive note, I thought the Gaming Book GW did for 2nd Ed. was a great idea. I'd given up buying GHBs each year as I get little use out of them. I'm pleased to see that this year's GHB has taken its cue from the gaming book. However, the annual cycle of change with the GHB (and especially now that it seems like they're planning on doing more than just updating points) tends to pass me by. But then I guess its not aimed at me with my low level of purchases and lack of FOMO.

[ian0delond]

We don't have data to say it have sell poorly.

We just know it hasn't ran out of stock a week before its release date.

We don't know how much box has been made, how much as been sold so far and for how long the box is meant to stay on the shelves.

Speculating why it has low sell is ridiculous at this point. It could as well be the first time simply didn't underestimate the demand for a box in years.

[Clan's Cynic]

My interpretation is that GW selling so well the last year or so, coupled with Cursed City's infamy and Indomitus' initial infamy then turning into roaring success went and set expectations extremely high. This resulted in stores being eager to cram as many Dominion boxes into their proverbial shopping carts as they could, expecting a similar result to the two afore mentioned box sets - even if AoS doesn't sell as well generally, it's still a (supposedly) limited box set and if they clear out all their inventory in a day, great.

I imagine if there was a failure for some stores, it was banking too much on "literally anything from GW will sell." If you believe IVC2 (and people here were happy to do that when it overtook X-Wing and Warmahordes), AoS actually sold less than Star Wars: Legion and Marvel Crisis Protocol in Fall 2020 - considering those two games pretty much always sell out of new product, that's still an enviable position for any other wargame, but it does go to highlight just how far ahead 40k is compared to even GW's own, other products. AoS isn't nearly the juggernaut of 40k, even for all it's successes, it's just difficult to miss how big that difference is when 'GW make record profits' falls under the same umbrella. 

I also think the Horus Heresy leak can't be understated here. If we use Indomitus as a basis for "Loyalist Marine profits make drug lords blush" then the 'reveal' of what will no doubt be a pricey boxset of upscaled loyalist-aesthetic Space Marines probably made a fair chunk of people wait on handing their cash over, especially when a lot of those people were probably only starting AoS with 3.0 too - it doesn't help you can buy a lot of the existing HH kits now, whilst Slimcast haven't even had the rest of their new releases shown off yet.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Clan's Cynic

[dirkdragonslayer]

It's an alright looking box, but I am kinda burnt out on GW hype. Whenever there is an event model or something that I actually want it usually sells out to scalpers or low supply. I kinda expected this set to sell out just like those. My luck on timed exclusives is really low, the only one that I ever got my hands on was the Christmas red gobbo (and even for him I visited 3 stores) so I mostly ignore them. In addition I can't really put my finger on it, but the transition to 9th edition 40k didn't feel good and 3rd edition AoS is losing my attention in a similar way. I think seeing Gloomspite nerfed so hard kind of killed my enthusiasm, since I am a "only plays one army" person.

The Kruleboyz are neat, but I think I am taking a break from GW products for a bit. I have more than enough Gloomspite and Orks, and I think I am going to try some Infinity models. Haqqislam looks cool.

[Bosskelot]

Chikout said everything I would say really and in general people have been making lots of sensible points.

I think the the potentially lower expected sales of the box are indicative of the reception of AOS in general because of its somewhat weird design and faction choices. I have no doubt that if the Kruleboyz didn't have

a) such a silly name

and

b) such weird non-Warhammer designs

People might have been more enthusiastic about them.  A bunch of Brian Nelson Orc sculpts in there would've gotten people hyped; in fact just look at the new 40k Orks and how there's been a little bit of a mixed reaction to some of them precisely because it's clearly not Brian Nelson designing them. With the Kruleboyz not only do their heads and faces look strange, their proportions are weird to people too. But it's because AOS has this chip on its shoulder about trying to be "different" (for the sake of being different) you get lots of uneven aesthetic choices and designs that can miss the mark for a lot of people. Lumineth are the prime example of this.

Plus, the confused messaging and marketing around them is just leading to lots of uncertainty about their relation to Warclans, if Warclans is being re-done, the future of Bonesplitterz and Ironjawz etc etc. And added to this we have 0 idea what is coming in the future for them and how expansive (or not) their range is going to be. The Necron refresh for 9th was crystal clear in comparison and there were lots of sanctioned leaks and teaser trailers that added to the hype (we'd known the Silent King was making a return since WD's January 2020 issue for instance).

The Hobgrot issue is the ******-yellow skinned elephant in the room too. Again, this feels like AOS being up its own ****** and trying to be too clever for its own good. The launch box didn't need a full third of the models not being a part of the aesthetic theme or core rules of the army they're bundled with in the box, nor did they need to be a reference to a historically unpopular Warhammer Fantasy army that stopped being properly supported 21 years ago. Why are they there? I'm actually interested in Kruleboyz because I have Destruction armies and I've always been a Greenskin player since Fantasy and despite my above paragraphs I LIKE the Kruleboy models. But I don't like the Hobgrotz and worse still they're not even really a proper part of the faction! WHY ARE THEY THERE? So GW could sneak a reference in to a potentially upcoming army? To continue doing their confused move of trying to distance from WHFB while dredging up its corpse wherever possible to score cheap nostalgia points in the most shallow and cynical of ways?

I also think the reception to 3.0's rules and general direction has sucked a lot of hype out of its release. Don't get me wrong, I'm not passing absolute judgement on 3.0 and it's probably overall better to play than 2.0, but if you look at how GW has presented and marketed 3.0 compared to how they did with 9th you see a very big difference. 9th Edition was designed and marketed about trying to fix as many issues from 8th as possible. In fact the preview trailer for its rules changes was a laundry list of checkmarks that people had been asking for. And going through the rules and the codexes GW has basically tried to address and fix practically every complaint and flaw in 8th's systems. This hasn't been perfectly done, not at all, but it did lead to a lot of excitement for 9th pre-release and still leads to a lot of continuing interest in future releases. 40K feels like it has a coherent design and idea behind it, even if the execution is lacking and crucially it feels like the designers are receptive to what the playerbase talks about.

But 3.0? Half of the changes are attempts to fix stuff, and then the other half are changes for the sake of changes it feels like. A lot of longstanding complaints and bugbears people have with the games systems are literally unchanged. You could maybe be charitable and say this is GW trying to keep the game accessible and fast-paced to play, so stuff like shooting, terrain and battleshock sees 0 changes in order to keep that casual focus. But then the core rules are now 40+ pages and counting and we have an incredibly complex system of heroic actions and expanded command abilities while army building has jumped up in complexity too. So these decisions clearly cannot be about keeping the game simple. Instead it just feels like an insular studio team with 0 idea of how the game is played in the real world and making arbitrary changes based on... something? This is also coming off of the back of 4 battletome releases that have been all over the place in terms of design and even with this new edition incoming it really doesn't feel like the AOS team knows what it wants to be doing with the game. Which of course leads to less hype and less willingness to buy-in.

I mean just think about it; how can you have a load of confidence in a rules team that thinks the core shooting rules for AOS are perfectly fine and don't need any changes? This is without considering any of the units that break the system, I mean just the core shooting rules on their own. I've never seen a wargame with such loose, decision and consequence-free shooting mechanics.

Oh and, I'm sorry I have to mention it, I know a load of people who were waiting for a 3.0 announcement as an excuse to finally jump into the game and when the news came out that the double turn was staying it killed all of their enthusiasm. Yes, they've improved on it in 3.0, but its mere existence is enough to turn people off. It is what it is.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Bosskelot

[JustAsPlanned]

Throwing my two cent in the ring, I do think GW have really shot themselves in the foot by being so vague over the Kruleboyz. Just give us some straight up information! Stop dragging things out so much! You’re gonna kill the hype and replace it with fatigue! Please!

[Noserenda]

Can confirm the two keenest AoS players in our group havent talked about it since the Heresy leak, the hope of a not janky rules-set for that is much bigger, though our group was formerly very Heresy focused for years so that might be expected. That said, this and last weeks games nights got rainchecked by possible covid so we havent had a good natter about the whole thing yet  

 

 

[Sleboda]

16 hours ago, Greybeard86 said:

Constantly legending stuff

Have the done this to anything from AoS, or just older Warhammer Fantasy armies?

Edited June 29, 2021 by Sleboda

[dirkdragonslayer]

53 minutes ago, Sleboda said:

Have the donr this to anything from AoS, or just older Warhammer Fantasy armies?

A couple, but mostly niche ones.

* Half of the Warhammer Quest heroes got legends-ed. Priest, agent of Malerion guy, and the shadow aelf wizard lady. Also the mutant grots, but there rules were bad and I don't think a single person every used their rules instead of proxying them as Stabbas.

* The Forgeworld Fimirach hero. He was introduced in AoS and got moved to legends within a year of his launch. Must have sold super poorly or GW knew they were pivoting away from Fimir, since he was originally supposed to be released during WHFB but got delayed 4+ years before his release.

[Sleboda]

Were the WQ ones ever actually in AoS?

[novakai]

Well the last three boxes for AoS didn't look like they sell out fast either(Lumeneith Battlebox, Aether Wars, and Shadow and Pain) while 40K the piety and pain  also sold out extremely fast. i would just say that 40K is just a bigger game and shouldn't be use as the bar for success.

CC was probably just a case of something happening behind the scene that was beyond their control

Edited June 29, 2021 by novakai

[dirkdragonslayer]

3 hours ago, Sleboda said:

Were the WQ ones ever actually in AoS?

All of them had rules at one point. Some still do, like the Doomseeker for Fyreslayers and the Darkoath Chieftain for StD. The Excelsior Warpriest even had some new rules in one of the campaign things for 2nd edition. I think it was the defense of Glymmsforge (I was wrong, see edit)? He had his own formation with a mix of freeguild and Stormcast iirc. He was discontinued right before Cities of Sigmar came out, but he came out during AoS. I remember a lot of people getting mad that the priest was discontinued, especially since they features in new novels like Gloomspite.

I remember the Grot Scuttleling rules, mostly because they were really bad. Nonsense mixed weapons (some had bows, some had knives, some had clubs, some with spears, some with dual-wielding, all with different stats), no good special rules, and a 6+ save.

Edit: The Excelsior Warpriest actually featured in the short-lived Lethisian Defenders allegiance, the proto-CoS army. Basically stormcast, freeguild humans, devoted humans, and Fyreslayers. I believe he was a necessary part of the detachment iirc.

Edited June 29, 2021 by dirkdragonslayer
Was a little wrong on town name.

[novakai]

8 hours ago, Clan's Cynic said:

 

I imagine if there was a failure for some stores, it was banking too much on "literally anything from GW will sell." If you believe IVC2 (and people here were happy to do that when it overtook X-Wing and Warmahordes), AoS actually sold less than Star Wars: Legion and Marvel Crisis Protocol in Fall 2020 - considering those two games pretty much always sell out of new product, that's still an enviable position for any other wargame, but it does go to highlight just how far ahead 40k is compared to even GW's own, other products. AoS isn't nearly the juggernaut of 40k, even for all it's successes, it's just difficult to miss how big that difference is when 'GW make record profits' falls under the same umbrella. 

 

TBF AoS didn't have any worthwhile release in the Fall 2020, it was a big drought of content because of of 40K 9th edition and the only release was BR: Morathi/ Shadow and Pain in late November

[someone2040]

I mainly didn't buy one because to be honest, I barely used the stuff in Soul Wars.

Just like the 100 man company of Space Marines, I'd at some point like to build a big force of Stormcast (to live alongside my Cities), but I think the reality is I just won't get around to it.

I mainly got Soul Wars because of the Rulebook, which to be honest I've read through once, and referenced it maybe like a dozen times for battleplans and that's about it. It seemed like something you might need when AoS 2 was being hype up, but yeah, reality is you just don't. Most of the content are in the free rules.

 

So while I like the models in the new starter, I just feel it's likely going to be another case of live in my stack of boxes for ever. I wish they did gamers editions of rulebooks, because I really don't want to carry big heavy tomes around with me to my games and I'd like to just have the rules and path to glory stuff without all the fluff and pictures.

To an extent it feels like that's what they've tried to do with the Generals Handbook, by having the rules in it as well. But I feel a bit negative on that basically half the content in that book is something I can get in a free PDF (As of course, back in the day they didn't do free rules). So not only less original content, but the price has gone up.

I ended up just purchasing the GHB and only because I'll need it to go out and play in tournaments.

[Greybeard86]

4 hours ago, Sleboda said:

Have the done this to anything from AoS, or just older Warhammer Fantasy armies?

Sure, FW chorfs bring discontinued even though the new sculpts came with the launch of AoS (and were priced at FW standards).

Slowly tossing into the fire WHFB kits that had been ported didn’t help, but that isn’t exactly the same. 

Others may have more examples for you.

[Lowki]

21 hours ago, SunStorm said:

I feel sorry for GW in this (as much as I can feel sorry for a billion £ company), in that they either don't make enough and suffer the backlash they previously got for Cursed City, etc. Or they make loads and then when they don't all sell out, people say it's been a failure. 

Yeah I got the same feeling. And obviously as a consumer, I prefer the second option. It is great box, and gives you much Value for you money. I love the CruelBoyz,  the new look of the SCE, and it is available to anyone who likes to have a copy...so from my perspective I find it hard to see this as a failure, regardless of sales numbers.

Must say, that I can't help me from thinking that the rumors are for a part also feed by people who have a general grudge against GW, or are upset about the rule changes, and like GW to fail. This more in general, not specifically refering to this thread, which I think is an interesting read.

There isn't much I can add to what is already said. I see many people have far more insight, and understanding of how a business is run than I have. I am just a simple consumer, buying stuff (or not)

Guess the question if Dominion sold poor is largely relative to what GW expected to sell, and I have really no clue about GW's expectations. I have no doubts the absolute numbers of sold copies are still massive relative to my own standards though.

Of course I also see indications that it didn't sell as expected, like we receive some mails from GW and resellers that we shouldn't forget to buy it, the markers still available at GW, I heard of price drops (haven't seen them), and read the story about a reseller getting into trouble because a lower sales than expected ..., but I don't know if you really can read that much into it. My local store (reseller) sold out the first wave within 15 minutes (and he had a good amount of copies, much more than indomitus at the time), the second wave is still available, but also running out, so he says.

If there are indeed low sales, I guess this is for various reasons, not gonna repeat what has already been said.  I, for instance, didn't buy me a copy either. I resisted the temptation this time (and proud of it :)). I still have so much unfinshed (including the 2nd edition starter), and this year already bought 2000 pt of DoK, Cursed City, all Underworld Warbands, and a couple of Broken Realms Seraphon batlleboxes. Probably not that much for other peoples standards, but with my speed of painting, that alone will keep me busy for a few years, not to mention the backlog I already had before that. And than there is also the all seeing eye of my wife that I feel with every packet that arrives

I temporary skipped SBGL for the same reason, and also Kroak. You have to make choices, and I asked myself the question Cruel Boys, or SBGL and Seraphon. And for now I prefer the latter. So thats what I gonna buy instead (if anything). And then maybe there is also a possible Ogre update on the horizon..which I don't want to miss either.

Of course  I will need a rulebook (and that is already a 3rd of the price of Dominion), but tbh I never really play the game, so for now I am not in a rush (but will buy it at some point.)

Edited June 29, 2021 by Lowki

[Darnok]

My FLGS still has both the German and the English Dominion box up for preorder, and they had a "preorder for preorders" list leading up to this. As many others have said, we have no insight on how much was produced, and "not selling out quickly" is not at all a sign of "selling poorly".

 

As for my own two cent: the models just do not do it for me, and GW has acted too weird for my tastes lately. In short that's it.

The Kruleboyz have some interesting design elements, and I applaud GW for re-imagining some classic designs with their current possibilities. Still, I most definitely did not ask for "weedy Orcs with a LotR look", and to me the whole "not really fighty, but a bit, but more cunning and evil(ish)" is done just so much better with Gloomspite Gitz.

Then there are the technicalities of the models: just so much fiddly and easily breakable parts. Dammit, I want to be able to play with these without the constant fear of breaking something! Most of the Kruleboyz - and the Hobgrots in particular - have parts that will break even with all the care in the world, unless put in a cabinet forever.

For me another serious turn-off for the Kruleboyz is the question of their rules. Will the be in the Warclans battletome? Will they have a book of their own? GW has been vague about this, and thus I am left scratching my head.

As for the  Stormcasts? They are looking good, but also feel very "Primaris Eternals" to me, which I do not like at all. I have a sizable collection of SE, I like their "old" look, and I feel uncomfortable in getting their "2.0 upgrade".

 

Put this all together, and I came to the conclusion to only get the big rulebook - which I like for the prospect of, and could get at a comfortable 20% off - and wait for what my other armies will get later on. Until then I have more than enough to work on, and can quit happily sit this one out.

[Neil Arthur Hotep]

1 hour ago, Lowki said:

Must say, that I can't help me from thinking that the rumors are for a part also feed by people who have a general grudge against GW, or are upset about the rule changes, and like GW to fail. This more in general, not specifically refering to this thread, which I think is an interesting read.

The grudge against AoS is still quite alive in some parts of the warhammer community. Some people really resent AoS for being "responsible" for the end of the Old World and other still really hate Stormcast and think they are just fantasy space marines. This would not be much of a problem if it stayed localized to Warhammer Fantasy communities, but I do occasionally see posts to the effect of "I decided not to get into Age of Sigmar because I heard GW will just squat the setting when Old World comes out". I think there are definitely some people who are still 100% convinced that nobody actually likes AoS and it's just a matter of time before the game fails and Fantasy comes back.

Not sure how much this influences the popular perception of Dominion "failing", but it might play into it.