Rumours on low Dominion sales - discussion

[zilberfrid]

Kirioth said he was seeing quite a big jump in affiliate income with the release of Dominion, (can't see specifics), even though he's mostly 40K oriented.

I didn't hear how that compared to Indomitus though.

For me, I've been on the fence. I love the orcs, but am not that impressed by the hobgoblins, only like 2 of the Stormcast (leader and gryph hound) while neutral on the rest (which is a big improvement), and probably won't play 3rd.

I could probably sell the rest, but I don't like that so would underprice it to get rid of it. This means I would probably still make a saving, but only if you ever want to pay infantry hero prices. Which I don't.

But I know I'm an exception.

[JackStreicher]

19 minutes ago, zilberfrid said:

and probably won't play 3rd.

How so? Simply due to the new box not being to your taste?

I‘ve played third and to my surprise the marketing claims of GW are actually true. I definitely play it.

[zilberfrid]

22 minutes ago, JackStreicher said:

How so? Simply due to the new box not being to your taste?

I‘ve played third and to my surprise the marketing claims of GW are actually true. I definitely play it.

No, that's not it. I actually think this is the box with the best average quality GW made.

I'm just not a fan of AoS (or other GW rulesets) in general, and a three year turnaround is too fast for me so it doesn't have the advantage of GW's scale for me.

While I think GW's infantry heroes are too expensive for what you get, that pales when compared with GW's books. At least I sometimes like the models.

Edited June 28, 2021 by zilberfrid

[Scurvydog]

I preordered a box, but that is also because I play both Stormcast and Warclans and also keep up with all the rumors and chatter going on about upcoming tomes etc.

For many people, the sparse information from GW means they basically see a box with new models for a woefully outdated book, where they are not sure how these models will work. Then they also see the new orruks, however Gw has done a terrible job at communicating what their plan is for this faction and how they fit into any book, except for assumptions mostly.

Even then, looking at the content I doubt I will end up using a lot of it, the hobgrots look like poor fodder and the boss on foot and their banner bearers only look like something that might be used in games for laughs.

So who is this box for? People who just enjoy the models of course, but I think the pool of players wanting this VS box right now is somewhat low. If GW had done a better job with marketing the factions, perhaps also revealing the upcoming tomes, so people could get excited about going all in on these armies, but as usual GW wants to play coy, not stay anything and hope for the best. It absolutely baffles me the way they make these decisions.

[JackStreicher]

30 minutes ago, zilberfrid said:

No, that's not it. I actually think this is the box with the best average quality GW made.

I'm just not a fan of AoS (or other GW rulesets) in general, and a three year turnaround is too fast for me so it doesn't have the advantage of GW's scale for me.

While I think GW's infantry heroes are too expensive for what you get, that pales when compared with GW's books. At least I sometimes like the models.

A valid point of view. You echo some issues I’ve been having with GW as well. Thanks for explaining

[Gareth 🍄]

I think they should've shown more of the upcoming Kruleboyz range to give people a better idea of what that faction is going to look like - more cool models could get people more excited for them. I would guess there's also been a lot of confusion out there as to whether they're getting their own battletome or they're part of a new Orruk Warclans battletome. As a new faction/subfaction they feel a bit vague right now which I don't think helps them sell - hopefully GW will reveal a lot more on the stream this weekend.

Also, while I plan to collect the Kruleboyz, the Hobgrots don't interest me at all - I wonder if many others feel the same way? I'm really hoping for some Kruleboyz cavalry but simultaneously really hoping that they're not more Hobgrots, lol.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Gareth 🍄

[MitGas]

In our local GW it sold very well. Doesn't have to mean anything though, as it could be a fluke.

Personally I didn't get it. I bought the SC standard bearer via ebay (I think Knight-Vexillor) to convert but since I'm immune to FOMO and pretty much only collect all things Tzeentch, that was kinda a given... One dude in our group got the full box though!

[Scurvydog]

7 minutes ago, Gareth 🍄 said:

Also, while I plan to collect the Kruleboyz, the Hobgrots don't interest me at all - I wonder if many others feel the same way? I'm really hoping for some Kruleboyz cavalry but simultaneously really hoping that they're not more Hobgrots, lol.

Yea not really feeling them either unfortunately and the box contains 20 of the critters. Again this might change if the greater plan for the faction. 

The game is sort of in a limbo especially as a SCE and Warclans player, as we are waiting for both all the FAQs and also for more info about the upcoming tomes.

I think others feel the same and might hold off on a semi expensive VS box where there are so many unanswered questions about the viability of plans for the product it contains.

[RuneBrush]

Really interesting topic as it's one that can be viewed from a variety of angles.  On the one hand GW seemed to have loads of stock left - the fact they didn't immediately sell out of the command point tokens was a surprise for me.  That said, some places were selling Dominion up to £30 lower than GW - are six metal tokens really worth that amount?

Looking at FLGS's, I have a feeling that there has been a general overestimation on how many people were going to pick Dominion up, it felt like the attitude being taken was "if we have the stock we'll sell it".  That was highlighted when some places dropped the price to £85 less than a week after the preorder date (they'd basically overordered and didn't have the storage space).

I don't think Dominion sales were as high as anticipated, I also believe that there was a much larger number produced to ensure GW didn't get slated for selling out in five minutes.  Together that gives the impression sales were lower than they probably were.  If we're honest the fact there are still sets available to buy is a positive thing for us as hobbyists.

My own view is that there are multiple reasons why not as many people have picked up Dominion as some other releases.

• Product saturation - let's be honest if you've been in the hobby for more than a few years, you're going to have a pile of shame/potential.  There's a limit to how large you allow this to grow and people are a lot more aware of what they have waiting to assemble / paint than in the past
• New faction - I think introducing a brand new faction was risky.  Kruleboyz have no history or background available for people to connect to, so you're relying 100% on the miniature range.  Although you may argue Nighthaunt were a new faction too, there was already a chunk of established lore for them and the models were pretty unique
• Stormcast - quite simply, they're not Space Marines and somebody somewhere needs to accept this fact.  Not everybody has a Stormcast army they could add these models to - actually that's likely not true, most people will have a Stormcast army, but it'll be in their pile of shame/potential and going to be reluctant to add more to it
• Box format - although historically popular, I think this big box format has become stale over the years.  It doesn't contain an entire army and if you split it with a friend there's only one rulebook.  A large number of people pick it up and then try and sell off the army they're not interested in which is a really weird sales model if you think about it
• Lack of gaming - I believe that AoS has suffered more from the pandemic than 40k. There has been a significant reduction in the number of games being played.  Love them or hate them, organised events get a lot of attention on social media and forums which build up keen.  Without those games being played there's been a general lack of enthusiasm for painting up brand new armies in comparison to a "normal" year
• Timing - tying into the above item, many of us feel that a 3 year rules lifecycle is too short, the pandemic has prevented 18 months worth of gaming (and it's not over yet), so to have a new version thrust on us feels a bit soon.  This has been compounded by the fact that many people haven't even used their 2020 Generals Handbook
• Cursed City - the issues surrounding Cursed City continue to cast a cloud over AoS, but my inclusion of this game is more that many of us picked up Cursed City earlier this year.  Quite a few people have a "one big box a year" rule
• Push fit models - GW's push fit models are stunning, probably the best in the business.  However we all know that in the next six months there will be new boxes out that contain multi-part miniatures that offer more variety
• Over hyped - I know I'm not on my own in getting fed up from having something being hyped for weeks on end.  The ironic thing is that it probably switches more people off than it does on, because we get to a point and go "but do I really need this".  Hype is a great selling too, but it's easy to go too far

Sorry, this has turned out a lot longer than I'd intended 😁  Ultimately I don't think Dominion was a failure, but I equally don't think it's been the success it could have been.

[HollowHills]

My LGS owner said the following:

He was allocated about 60 copies of both indomitus and dominion. Indomitus sold out within minutes of going on sale. As of the weekend they had sold just over 40 copies of Dominion.

He speculated it had sold a lot less than GW expected as they received confirmation there would be no second print run. 

However, he was happy to keep dominion in stock as he felt it would sell over time. 

He also mentioned that a lot of younger customers are really into stormcast, but less so the adult aos crowd who tend to prefer armies that existed or are similar to WHFB armies.

[Sinfullyvannila]

I think perhaps scalpers may not be getting the returns they expect from GW boxes since they started releasing models a lot earlier than people expect after the box set released. The OBR line got a full release like; 2 weeks after Feast of Bones and people were expecting like 3 months for those. Indomitus got the MTO treatment. Cursed City models got released and nobody was expecting that to happen at all.

Also I dont think anyone should worry about the popularity of the game. Even though its considerably less popular than 40k, it still absolutely dwarfs most other games.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Sinfullyvannila

[Overread]

Game popularity is important to consider. AoS is built off the back of Old World, but Old World at the time it died was tiny compared to its height of popularity. It was also one of the worst product launces ever and AoS launch tanked sales. So AoS is for all intents a very new game. So every year for it is very valuable in securing more and newer customers; whilst the "old guard" who hang around are more keen (in general) to see reworked old armies rather than always brand new stuff. 

I think a lot of the big 40K sales last year weren't just current fans but old fans suddenly with lots of free time due to lockdowns and furloughs and with some free cash cause they weren't going out. So the sales went nuts because it was a huge return of old fans. Which works well when Marines sell to near on 50% or more of the market for that single game. 

 

AoS hasn't got either of those things; Stormcast are not marines* and AoS sort of has and hasn't got a huge legacy of fans in the background. 

 

So yep Corona knocking a year and a half now of games and in person interaction is a big thing. IT will have stifled AoS sales for a time and the growth of the game I suspect. 

 

Of course the flipside is that the numbers that AoS sells are are still numbers most other companies would utterly love to get (although in honestly a good few would likely crumble under the order volumes!). AoS is going nowhere but UP

 

*Honestly I think GW gets this, but that they are also somewhat locked into some of their design choices for the army in terms of adding more models and such. It is popular, and might be more so than we think considering GW has the raw numbers of sales and they have been in the Magazine as well. 

[SunStorm]

Without actual numbers from GW we can never be sure.

I feel sorry for GW in this (as much as I can feel sorry for a billion £ company), in that they either don't make enough and suffer the backlash they previously got for Cursed City, etc. Or they make loads and then when they don't all sell out, people say it's been a failure. 

On the positive side, anybody who does want a copy or 2 will get them and the prices on ebay and bits sites if you just want to pick up an extra unit or hero from it are in a good place. 

 

 

 

[CarkFish]

21 hours ago, Enoby said:

As it's been mentioned a few times on the rumour thread and I think there's a good chance it's a source of some unease at the general popularity of AoS, I thought it'd be a good idea to give this its own thread. This is really just speculation but I'm also hoping a way to ease any feelings of unease, or at least to discuss the "why" of it.

On the forum and over a few other social medias, there has been a general feeling that Dominion has sold poorly (poorly in this case is in relation to Gw's expectation). I very much doubt we will ever get a statement from GW, so until then we have a few things to go off:

- Dominion is still for sale on the GW store

- Dominion is still up for preorder on most LGSs

- The limited edition book is still up for preorder

- Some LGSs have reported low sales for the boxset 

- GW have said that they printed "loads" so everyone can get a copy, so we can at least assume there is more than Cursed City and perhaps Indomitus 

- There was still a queue on the GW site for Dominion

The questions I think that are worth discussing are:

• Do you think Dominion has sold poorly/well? Do you have any evidence to back this up?
• If it has sold poorly, why?
• If it has sold poorly, how do you think this reflects on AoS's popularity?
• If it has sold poorly, do you think it means anything for the future of AoS?

I think it'd be a good idea to discuss these things, not as some sort of "the sky is falling and GW will cut AoS any moment now" but because it would be useful to discuss sales and maybe put worries to rest, or at least to think about what this could mean for the future of AoS (not "it will die" but maybe "they will focus on a different figurehead for the franchise" as an example).

I know for a fact it's sold poorly, had this very conversation with my Local (independent) store manager on Saturday, they're lumbered with cash tied up in stock that they cant sell.... It's not great for them after the sh*tty year they've had 

[Greybeard86]

1 hour ago, Overread said:

the "old guard" who hang around are more keen (in general) to see reworked old armies rather than always brand new stuff. 

I think a lot of the big 40K sales last year weren't just current fans but old fans suddenly with lots of free time due to lockdowns and furloughs and with some free cash cause they weren't going out. So the sales went nuts because it was a huge return of old fans. Which works well when Marines sell to near on 50% or more of the market for that single game. 

[...]

AoS hasn't got either of those things; Stormcast are not marines* and AoS sort of has and hasn't got a huge legacy of fans in the background.

Spot on.

Specially like this bit:

reworked old armies rather than always brand new stuff. 

Some of the bean counters at GW need to read this.

You will still sell new sculpts for old products, maybe a few less, but still. Constantly legending stuff and using new releases as business drivers leave an extremely bitter taste in the mouth of those making the purchases. And, while I am sure you get money from people who don't stay in the hobby, how much of the revenue is from long term customers?

[Scurvydog]

Somehow though I feel it is quite strange that it should be deemed a point of failure if a product is not entirely sold out forever during the first week og a two week preorder period. Like it is a terrible thing that there is enough stock for the box to actually end up on the store shelves for "regular" customers to see, who are not sitting ready to preorder everything and just casually browse their shop from time to time.

I often find it increasingly frustrating to shop for Warhammer miniatures and hobby gear, especially as someone living outside the UK, even spraycans are never in stock anywhere. Webshops will hardly have anything in stock and need to order from GW to get anything, which takes a lot of time these days. 

It is becoming increasingly difficult to find any shop selling Warhammer stuff where you can actually end up going home with the items you set out to get, due to the large range of products, but very limited stock of retailers. Outside directly from GW you will have to visit 10+ shops to buy a complete Cities army these days.

I'd love for there to be less FOMO, more stock and then let things sell over time as happened all through history. Imagine that in supermarket, that it was somehow a failure if all the fresh vegetables were not sold out within 3 hours of opening the shop. Do people go concerned about their local supermarket if that did not happen? Imagine people writing on the stores facebook stuff like "I came into the store during the evening and you still had bananas left on the shelves! Does that mean you are closing soon?? Will you stop selling bananas!?". It is completely ridiculous.

Cursed City had people all up in arms due to limited availability. Remember at the dominion reveal how the chat was just red hot with remarks about how you would probably not be able to get a hold of one? Negativity about scalpers etc. Well now GW provided plenty, but then people prophecise about the doom of the company and AoS being unpopular.

What could GW do to win here? 

[Greybeard86]

2 hours ago, HollowHills said:

He also mentioned that a lot of younger customers are really into stormcast, but less so the adult aos crowd who tend to prefer armies that existed or are similar to WHFB armies.

*Cough cough wink wink cough cough*

Take the hint, GW.

[Kodos der Henker]

1 minute ago, Greybeard86 said:

And, while I am sure you get money from people who don't stay in the hobby, how much of the revenue is from long term customers?

as a store manager once told me, the HQ does not care how much money he makes with veterans buying units, the only measure if his store was doing well or not was the number of Starter Boxes sold, nothing else

 

2 minutes ago, Scurvydog said:

Somehow though I feel it is quite strange that it should be deemed a point of failure if a product is not entirely sold out forever during the first week og a two week preorder period. Like it is a terrible thing that there is enough stock for the box to actually end up on the store shelves for "regular" customers to see, who are not sitting ready to preorder everything and just casually browse their shop from time to time

years back we got from GW that a product not making the money back on its release weekend never will and therefore is considered a fail

and yes it is better for the game to have the big starter set available for longer to get more new players in

yet stock holders might have a different point of view and not selling out in minutes might tell them it was overproduced

but this also takes over to other companies were people being used to GW argue a product failed because it took 30 minutes for the special edition to sell out

[JackStreicher]

I don't assume I can judge the whole situation since I do not have enough data to judge whether the interest in AoS has dwindled, the request was saturated or Gw simply produced enough.

What I can tell however is what my gamign environment is looking like:
In my gaming groups the interest of AoS is unbroken. In addition there are about 3-4 people in the 40K group that want to start AoS now.
I personally ordered the Dominion box due to getting a huge discount from my FLGS and because I can share the orcs with someone else. I actually preordered the Box since I considered it to be a good deal. After the Box however I won't be buying anything for some months since I already have my Soulblight army to paint and before I buy anything new I want to get in some games. So new Products can wait, as they won't be running away anytime soon.

To me the mixture of Collecting, Painting, Story and Gaming is important. I would never ever start a Warhammer Army if it was only for collecting reasons since  being ab le to acively use the miniatures is important to me (I despise dust collectors like Action Figures and the likes) ^^.

Maybe others find themselfes in a similar situation
 

[Neil Arthur Hotep]

14 minutes ago, Scurvydog said:

Somehow though I feel it is quite strange that it should be deemed a point of failure if a product is not entirely sold out forever during the first week og a two week preorder period. Like it is a terrible thing that there is enough stock for the box to actually end up on the store shelves for "regular" customers to see, who are not sitting ready to preorder everything and just casually browse their shop from time to time.

I agree with this. The situation with Dominion seems to be similar to what you get with video game releases a lot of the time: "This new game sold 3 million copies, but we projected 5 million, so it's an unpopular failure". When really, this says more about the company's projections than about the actual popularity of the game.

It makes sense that Dominion would be less of a seller than Indomitus or even Cursed City. And it does not make senes ti me that not yet being completely sold out before the preorder period is actually over should constitute a failure. GW did even recently send out that email saying that stock are now getting low. So if they end up with all Dominion stock sold out at the end of the preorder period, what more could they want? Would it really be better if everything sold out within the first hour? Would that not rather indicate that too little stock was produced?

There is also the question of the popularity of AoS. I think GW will have the best numbers about this, but even if Dominion does not sell as well as expected, does this really say a lot about the popularity of the game as a whole? I would say no. It just shows that the popularity of AoS factions is way less centralized than 40k, where there just is no faction you can put into a starter box that will appeal to 50% of all players. Which I would say is a good thing as far as the health of the game is concerned (even if GW might prefer a Space Mariens situation).

[Chikout]

2 hours ago, Kodos der Henker said:

as a store manager once told me, the HQ does not care how much money he makes with veterans buying units, the only measure if his store was doing well or not was the number of Starter Boxes sold, nothing else

 

years back we got from GW that a product not making the money back on its release weekend never will and therefore is considered a fail

and yes it is better for the game to have the big starter set available for longer to get more new players in

yet stock holders might have a different point of view and not selling out in minutes might tell them it was overproduced

but this also takes over to other companies were people being used to GW argue a product failed because it took 30 minutes for the special edition to sell out

A product making its money back is not the same as selling out. Gw offers about  a 50% discount to FLGS. It follows that the margin in direct stores is larger. So if GW sells half the copies it makes, it will make its money back. 

First a caveat. I've never run a store do if this is nonsense please ignore.

I wasn't aware of some of the games gw plays with its stockists (I live in Japan) so I deleted this as it was a bit uninformed. 

Edited June 28, 2021 by Chikout

[Mattrulesok]

We'll never know but I'd be interested to see what effect scalpers had on this launch. At least where I am stores and GW really cracked down on scalpers with most places I saw limiting stock to 1 or 2 and since I've barely seen anyone selling models from the sets, I wonder if effectively reducing scalpers hurt the first weekend sale push? I'm not saying it's a bad thing because those of us who wanted the set got it but I do wonder about the long term effects. 

[Greyshadow]

Interesting topic. I am really excited for third edition. I am really looking forward to playing with the latest presentation of the rules. I think the models in Dominion are absolutely superb too.

You can bet there is a lot more coming for Stormcast and swamp orruks. If Dominion is still around when players can see the full offering, I think it will see a resurgence in sales. As others have said, it’s nice to see that it isn’t a blink and you will miss it purchase.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Greyshadow

[Kodos der Henker]

6 minutes ago, Chikout said:

A product making its money back is not the same as selling out. Gw offers about  a 50% discount to FLGS. It follows that the margin in direct stores is larger. So if GW sells half the copies it makes, it will make its money back.

we don't know how many copies GW need to sell to make the money back, and if it sells out or not depends on the number of copies made and the demand

but the reason why people say bad pre-order sales means failed product comes from that statements and the only indication we have is something is selling well is if it sells out or not

and storage space is expensive and you don't want to have stuff on stock for too long, specially for a limited release product (hence why some FLGS already undercut the price on pre-order) hence why we assume GW won't produce much more than they expect selling with the release

[Eternalis]

51 minutes ago, Chikout said:

One interesting thing is that the way GW products sell has been very good for FLGS. 

Hum... Here in France that's not the case AT ALL. Many LGS are struggling and are angry at GW politics.

You don't know how many boxes you'll get to sell, they are expensive as hell (way more than some other brands), you're forced to have some boxes (you know, the boxes no one wants to buy) in your store or your contract with GW is canceled (and of course you're forced to pay for them...).
Many french stores decided to stop doing a discount on GW products because they couldn't handle it anymore, and because of that people buy more and more on Wayland...

Here, GW told LGS that a second run of production will be made for a release in November. LGS told their customers that because they were only able to pre-order 10 boxes for the July release, people could order a box for November if they're not in a hurry.
The problem is : LGS didn't know they'll only get 10 boxes before they tried to pre-order them, so they had to cancel many people orders... People went mad and just ordered it on GW website.

How is that positive for any "small" LGS? You don't know what you'll be able to sell because GW politics is all about their website and official Warhammer Stores.