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Nos

Corona Virus and The Hobby

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The UK Government has today announced that it is recommending people to avoid all contact which is non-essential, in order to limit the contagion risk for Corona Virus. Our gaming group have just unanimously decided that we should no longer meet, and I would ask all those in the UK to do the same.

Wargaming is non-essential contact. Theres no grey areas there.

I work in Healthcare provision and expect to soon be joining my colleagues in supporting and isolating and treating vulnerable individuals from the virus in the biggest battle the NHS has yet faced. In order to do this it is essential that the spread is limited to ensure that when these people get Ill, they can be cared for with the appropriate care and expertise and equipment required for people with weak immune symptoms fighting off pneumonia. If they do not receive that support, they will die.

If the level of spread is in anyway multiplied by unnecessary social contact, such as people going to work who can work at home, or people going out to play football or to the pub or to play war games, then our health system will soon be swamped.

In which case anyone requiring critical intervention regardless of cause is also likely to die. If that happens, then people with health conditions which are not usually fatal will without the requisite resources to support them become critical, and then they will die. And so on. The evidence in Italy at present is that the real danger of COVID 19 is not that it kills people, it's that it kills hospitals.

Dont go out and play war games, or indeed to do anything non essential. Not only do you put yourselves at risk, you put others at risk, and you create a negative example that encourages others to do likewise.

On a similarly related note, given the social isolation to come, while possible can I encourage you to please order things from Independent Hobby shops etc if you're going to buy anything over the next week or so. Many of them struggle month to month as it is so weeks without custom Is going to be brutal.

Our actions now will endanger lives or save them.

Wash your hands as well as your brushes.

God bless everyone x



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While people dying or getting sick is by far the biggest tragedy of this situation, it's also a sad thing that we are probably going to see a whole lot more bankruptcies and small businesses (ie - hobby shops) failing than deaths.

This pandemic will hit poor people the hardest, and let's face it - nobody runs a hobby shop to get rich.

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I just purchased some stuff from a smaller hobby shop in the days before we were shut down, and they have no webshop. I'll pick up the spack when we can.

I was going to order from a cheaper online retailer, but thanks for making me realize that I can do without for a month, and will buy the stuff there.

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42 minutes ago, Nos said:

The UK Government has today announced that it is recommending people to avoid all contact which is non-essential, in order to limit the contagion risk for Corona Virus. Our gaming group have just unanimously decided that we should no longer meet, and I would ask all those in the UK to do the same.

Wargaming is non-essential contact. Theres no grey areas there.

I work in Healthcare provision and expect to soon be joining my colleagues in supporting and isolating and treating vulnerable individuals from the virus in the biggest battle the NHS has yet faced. In order to do this it is essential that the spread is limited to ensure that when these people get Ill, they can be cared for with the appropriate care and expertise and equipment required for people with weak immune symptoms fighting off pneumonia. If they do not receive that support, they will die.

If the level of spread is in anyway multiplied by unnecessary social contact, such as people going to work who can work at home, or people going out to play football or to the pub or to play war games, then our health system will soon be swamped.

In which case anyone requiring critical intervention regardless of cause is also likely to die. If that happens, then people with health conditions which are not usually fatal will without the requisite resources to support them become critical, and then they will die. And so on. The evidence in Italy at present is that the real danger of COVID 19 is not that it kills people, it's that it kills hospitals.

Dont go out and play war games, or indeed to do anything non essential. Not only do you put yourselves at risk, you put others at risk, and you create a negative example that encourages others to do likewise.

On a similarly related note, given the social isolation to come, while possible can I encourage you to please order things from Independent Hobby shops etc if you're going to buy anything over the next week or so. Many of them struggle month to month as it is so weeks without custom Is going to be brutal.

Our actions now will endanger lives or save them.

Wash your hands as well as your brushes.

God bless everyone x


 

Agree entirely.

US based healthcare provider - if you don't know what   'Flattening the Curve'  means - read the following to understand why this is so important.  

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/15/21180342/coronavirus-covid-19-us-social-distancing

 

 

 

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Agree wholeheartedly, and thank your for your insight. I had a discussion with a member here in another thread, that unfortunately highlighted how lightly some people take this VERY serious situation. We ALL need to take care of ourselves, and thereby each other. The key to defeating this virus is staying away from others as much as possible. 

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Agree and disagree at the same time. We all should take care and make certain to not be out in public with the slightest of symptoms. We all should wash our hands, take extra care of hygiene and make certain to avoid unnecessary risks - we need to flatten the curve.

At the same time isolation is not a solution. Achieving “flock immunity” will take a long time (if fast we will most likely have failed to flatten the curve) and stop going to any form of social meeting (including restaurants, malls, gaming groups etc) for the rest of the year or maybe even the next one is not a valid solution  - it will just lead to much worse results in the long turn.

Use common sense - avoid meeting people if sick or having any form of symptoms, wash your hands and enjoy the hobby.

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5 minutes ago, NJohansson said:

Agree and disagree at the same time. We all should take care and make certain to not be out in public with the slightest of symptoms. We all should wash our hands, take extra care of hygiene and make certain to avoid unnecessary risks - we need to flatten the curve.

At the same time isolation is not a solution. Achieving “flock immunity” will take a long time (if fast we will most likely have failed to flatten the curve) and stop going to any form of social meeting (including restaurants, malls, gaming groups etc) for the rest of the year or maybe even the next one is not a valid solution  - it will just lead to much worse results in the long turn.

Use common sense - avoid meeting people if sick or having any form of symptoms, wash your hands and enjoy the hobby.

The first consideration for my isolation is to keep from overstressing the health system.

My sisters both work in healthcare, and they are already feeling the strain, and we're not as far on the curve as other countries. When more people start coming in, and healthcare professionals fall ill, people *will* die, and not just from the virus.

I won't need to do that for more than two months, I think. After that, the disease will be petering out. I still will be avoiding organ receivers, cancer patients and other immune deficient people until it's done.

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, zilberfrid said:

The first consideration for my isolation is to keep from overstressing the health system.

My sisters both work in healthcare, and they are already feeling the strain, and we're not as far on the curve as other countries. When more people start coming in, and healthcare professionals fall ill, people *will* die, and not just from the virus.

I won't need to do that for more than two months, I think. After that, the disease will be petering out. I still will be avoiding organ receivers, cancer patients and other immune deficient people until it's done.

There is a chance but odds are (and for all our sake I hope) you are wrong. We need to get flock immunity (basically 60 percent of the population going through the illness) or find a vaccine. A vaccine would be ideal but odds are we are not going to se one in the nearest future (generally takes around five years - but they will definitely speed up the process) - hence lot of countries going for flattening the curve and flock immunity.

IMPORTANT - this does not mean we should stop taking care, we need to flatten the curve and hence everyone should take care but strict isolation is most likely not ideal. If 60 percent of the population gets the illness in a month or two the healthcare system (regardless of which European country) will not manage - fatalities will go through the roof. Not to mention the economic crisis that will follow (is already starting - which in the long run will affect us more - even in actual deaths). We thus need a systematic curve (and I am not going to try to guess how long the ideal one will be - but from estimates shown to us it is not a month or two).

Should probably add (because this is a very serious question and there are a lot of misinformation going around) - this is not just a random opinion. I am an MD for a healthcare company (general practice clinics - first line, in the middle of it all). My days for the last couple of weeks have not consisted of anything but disease control efforts, questions on quarantine, hygiene policies, hazard equipment and dozens of other Covid - 19 related issues. 

The positive thing is that we will get through it - but the cost (hopefully not in lives) will be enormous.

Almost forgot, you should always follow your healthcare guidelines. If your government has issued quarantine - follow said quarantine. If the guidelines are to avoid  public contact - avoid public contact. But unless full quarantine, 2-4 people meeting for a game is not life ending (provided that you follow hygiene and make certain to not have any symptoms - I.e symptom free for 48 hours).

Edited by NJohansson
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At least we will have lots of painting time on our hands in the next weeks

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, NJohansson said:

There is a chance but odds are (and for all our sake I hope) you are wrong. We need to get flock immunity (basically 60 percent of the population going through the illness) or find a vaccine. A vaccine would be ideal but odds are we are not going to se one in the nearest future (generally takes around five years - but they will definitely speed up the process) - hence lot of countries going for flattening the curve and flock immunity.

IMPORTANT - this does not mean we should stop taking care, we need to flatten the curve and hence everyone should take care but strict isolation is most likely not ideal. If 60 percent of the population gets the illness in a month or two the healthcare system (regardless of which European country) will not manage - fatalities will go through the roof. Not to mention the economic crisis that will follow (is already starting - which in the long run will affect us more - even in actual deaths). We thus need a systematic curve (and I am not going to try to guess how long the ideal one will be - but from estimates shown to us it is not a month or two).

Should probably add (because this is a very serious question and there are a lot of misinformation going around) - this is not just a random opinion. I am an MD for a healthcare company (general practice clinics - first line, in the middle of it all). My days for the last couple of weeks have not consisted of anything but disease control efforts, questions on quarantine, hygiene policies, hazard equipment and dozens of other Covid - 19 related issues. 

The positive thing is that we will get through it - but the cost (hopefully not in lives) will be enormous.

Almost forgot, you should always follow your healthcare guidelines. If your government has issued quarantine - follow said quarantine. If the guidelines are to avoid  public contact - avoid public contact. But unless full quarantine, 2-4 people meeting for a game is not life ending (provided that you follow hygiene and make certain to not have any symptoms - I.e symptom free for 48 hours).

The Government has issued health guidelines asking *everyone* to  avoid non-essential contact.

Wargaming is non essential contact.

If every one in the UK who wants to play AOS and meet with 4 other people for a game whenever they feel like it does it, encouraging 4 people to leave their house for no good reason and all of the unnecessary social interactions that entails ,  then it *will be* life ending for someone because the rate at which spread will occur from those actions alone will be enormous.

The latest government plan as of this evening is to lockdown, flatten the curve, reduce restrictions as the peak falls, then return into lockdown as it begins to rise again to flatten the curve etc until a vaccine is available.

The previous focus on geberating herd immunity has now been abandoned due to those responsible for it modelling outcomes of 250,000 dead in the UK. The hope is that a long term approach outlined above will reduce this number considerably, but that it will be 18 months until we're out of the woods with herd immunity reached through vaccine.

This *is* a matter of life and death. I fear the importance of AOS or indeed anything not essential to daily healthy living will become very apparent very quickly.  

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Nos said:

The Government has issued health guidelines asking *everyone* to  avoid non-essential contact.

Wargaming is non essential contact.

If every one in the UK who wants to play AOS and meet with 4 other people for a game whenever they feel like it does it, encouraging 4 people to leave their house for no good reason and all of the unnecessary social interactions that entails ,  then it *will be* life ending for someone because the rate at which spread will occur from those actions alone will be enormous.

The latest government plan as of this evening is to lockdown, flatten the curve, reduce restrictions as the peak falls, then return into lockdown as it begins to rise again to flatten the curve etc until a vaccine is available.

The previous focus on geberating herd immunity has now been abandoned due to those responsible for it modelling outcomes of 250,000 dead in the UK. The hope is that a long term approach outlined above will reduce this number considerably, but that it will be 18 months until we're out of the woods with herd immunity reached through vaccine.

This *is* a matter of life and death. I fear the importance of AOS or indeed anything not essential to daily healthy living will become very apparent very quickly.  

 

 

 

Sight - not going to argue with you,  not because I couldn’t, simply because it is a bit disheartening and pointless. My biggest concern is that various governments have chosen to address this issue very differently - there is no one line of thought and no one line of defense/tackling the problem. There is probably not even a 100% right or wrong (just on the basis that almost everything is based on assumptions and probability) where if we get a vaccine soonish - your line of thought will be right and if we don’t then any type of lockdown for a couple of years (not even full but periodical) will be much more disastrous then the possible deaths. Saying that - once again, one should always follow the actual recommendations of your country in question - so if you are in “lockdown” then meetings should be avoided. For those of us where public life is still open/encouraged - then game on (with care and consideration).

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, NJohansson said:

Sight - not going to argue with you,  not because I couldn’t, simply because it is a bit disheartening and pointless. My biggest concern is that various governments have chosen to address this issue very differently - there is no one line of thought and no one line of defense/tackling the problem. There is probably not even a 100% right or wrong (just on the basis that almost everything is based on assumptions and probability) where if we get a vaccine soonish - your line of thought will be right and if we don’t then any type of lockdown for a couple of years (not even full but periodical) will be much more disastrous then the possible deaths. Saying that - once again, one should always follow the actual recommendations of your country in question - so if you are in “lockdown” then meetings should be avoided. For those of us where public life is still open/encouraged - then game on (with care and consideration).

Public life in the UK is no long open or encouraged though as of this evening. Hence why I made my post.

To be honest I'm not actually aware of a country in the Western Hemisphere where it is at this point. There has not been consensus prior to now but now the overwhelming majority of governments have requested or imposed an end to social interaction outside of the home unless completely necessary. 

I'm glad to see from FB that the vast majority of gamers in the UK are likewise ending their sessions while the government is asking for people not to participate in non essential contact.

Its not my line of thought re the peaks and troughs, its the Government's new approach :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/new-data-new-policy-why-uks-coronavirus-strategy-has-changed

Paper on which they have based it:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

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Most if not all countries are adopting this strategy. We need to heed the warnings of having no non-essential contact. I have good healthcare in the US (for once) and even I'm still very anxious because I work with older folks. It's confirmed younger people can spread covid19 asymptomatically. Don't do anything you don't need to.

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No toy soldier game is worth any of our lives. Use this time to build, paint, convert, etc.  Let this thing burn through and then we can game again. 

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I want to see fully painted armies everywhere when we come out the other end of this!

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11 hours ago, NJohansson said:

Sight - not going to argue with you,  not because I couldn’t, simply because it is a bit disheartening and pointless. My biggest concern is that various governments have chosen to address this issue very differently - there is no one line of thought and no one line of defense/tackling the problem. There is probably not even a 100% right or wrong (just on the basis that almost everything is based on assumptions and probability) where if we get a vaccine soonish - your line of thought will be right and if we don’t then any type of lockdown for a couple of years (not even full but periodical) will be much more disastrous then the possible deaths. Saying that - once again, one should always follow the actual recommendations of your country in question - so if you are in “lockdown” then meetings should be avoided. For those of us where public life is still open/encouraged - then game on (with care and consideration).

Please consider that flock immunity is not guarnteed. Right by now there is no evidence of immunization and, if there is any, we ar not sure how long it can last. Even if you can reach the flock immunity, avoiding social contacts is required to not overload hospitals. In Uk  you have 7 critical care places (beds? sorry, not native english as you can see, i don't know the correct word) every 100K inhabitants. It means that if you have 8 critical COV-19 situations every 100k inhabitants one is guaranteed to die, not considering that critical care  have to deal to all the not COV19 critical situations (heart attack, car crashes,  stokes, other repiratory patologies,ecc. ecc.)

Moreover you cannot just avoid sick people, because the symptoms can manifest several days after contracting coronavirus; so you can contract it from someone apparently healthy.

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Hello, I'm from Spain and we thought the same: "it's only a virus, if you get sympthoms you will stay at home...". But the problem with this virus is that you are very contagious before you get symptoms... And be sure, this virus is very contagious.

We have a lot of deaths because a lot of old people's home get infected and after the first person get symptoms basically all the people in that residence was infected.

Please, be careful, if you aren't your health system will collapse.

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9 minutes ago, Nezzhil said:

Hello, I'm from Spain and we thought the same: "it's only a virus, if you get sympthoms you will stay at home...". But the problem with this virus is that you are very contagious before you get symptoms... And be sure, this virus is very contagious.

We have a lot of deaths because a lot of old people's home get infected and after the first person get symptoms basically all the people in that residence was infected.

Please, be careful, if you aren't your health system will collapse.

Getting more people infected to gain herd immunity is something we can always do later, but limiting infection is something that you can only do early on.

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Based on bits that I've read, there isn't much evidence that it's possible to gain an immunity to covid-19, nor if you do, how long that immunity would actually last.  There have been a few cases where people have been infected twice.  Normally when the experts look towards pushing a herd/flock immunity, it's based upon there being a vaccine available - this was kind of highlighted last year with there being outbreaks of things like mumps where less children were being given the MMR jab.

For hobbyists who have yet to be placed under lock down, my suggestion would be to make sure that you've got a range of hobby available to you (some good books, magazines, painting, new kits to assemble etc) and try and get something like Skype set up with some friends for hobby hangouts.  Keep hydrated too!  Sadly I work for a company that sells healthcare products, so the likelihood of being allowed to work from home or the company stopping for a period is next to zero for me, although I have got many things planned if that were to happen!

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My advice from Italy is: be sure to grab all the colors you need before a possible lockdown, it can be frustrating to have all the time to finally paint your models and find out that you miss a color!

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Even in the UK the field is split (amongst scientists). But to put it in some perspective (UK/England numbers):

25-30 000 people die from diabetes each year, the flue (while varies greatly season to season) has been known to kill 17 000 a year, cancer 160 000+ a year, alcohol kills around 10 000 and smoking some 80 000 on a yearly basis. Covid-19 is absolutely much more dangerous than the flue - but going by numbers it is not the end of civilization/humanity going by deaths nor by illness (majority of people only suffer minor symptoms). In comparison 20 000+ children die every day (world wide) due to reasons that could be prevented by financial means (i.e. they die because of poverty). Expect this number to skyrocket once the financial crisis hits its peak, moreover that is only children - worldwide poverty will kill many more people than Covid-19 will. 
 
And yes this is comparing apples to oranges -  I am not saying that we should ignore Covid-19. We definitely should take it seriously and take real measures. I am not even arguing against being careful, nor against temporary lockdowns and any other measures - just take it from someone on the inside, this is a much harder question than just be home or not or play games or not. Basically we are going to get hurt any way we do it - just don’t make it black or white - the reality right now is brown and in a toilet because the real question is not now but in three months time, especially if we don’t succeed with a lockdown and people start getting unemployed in their millions.
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2 hours ago, NJohansson said:

 

Even in the UK the field is split (amongst scientists). But to put it in some perspective (UK/England numbers):

25-30 000 people die from diabetes each year, the flue (while varies greatly season to season) has been known to kill 17 000 a year, cancer 160 000+ a year, alcohol kills around 10 000 and smoking some 80 000 on a yearly basis. Covid-19 is absolutely much more dangerous than the flue - but going by numbers it is not the end of civilization/humanity going by deaths nor by illness (majority of people only suffer minor symptoms). In comparison 20 000+ children die every day (world wide) due to reasons that could be prevented by financial means (i.e. they die because of poverty). Expect this number to skyrocket once the financial crisis hits its peak, moreover that is only children - worldwide poverty will kill many more people than Covid-19 will. 
 
And yes this is comparing apples to oranges -  I am not saying that we should ignore Covid-19. We definitely should take it seriously and take real measures. I am not even arguing against being careful, nor against temporary lockdowns and any other measures - just take it from someone on the inside, this is a much harder question than just be home or not or play games or not. Basically we are going to get hurt any way we do it - just don’t make it black or white - the reality right now is brown and in a toilet because the real question is not now but in three months time, especially if we don’t succeed with a lockdown and people start getting unemployed in their millions.

Any way you split it, let's keep the risk where it pays off. Just the things to keep society and economy going.

We have unpainted plastic, or terrain we can build, or markers, or a lot of other things without contact.

If we go about congregating for games and, with that, help reach the treshold for increased lockdown sooner, we're robbing that time from being able to go to the shops, or pregnant women being able to meet with midwives, or dentist's appointments, or trash collecting, or lots of other things that require interaction.

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On 3/16/2020 at 6:40 PM, NJohansson said:

For those of us where public life is still open/encouraged - then game on (with care and consideration).

The problem with this is that the folks in some random gaming group cannot be counted upon to not attend dinner with Grandma, or to get a coffee on the way home and infect some retail worker who then infects Grandma, or ...

 

It's beyond irresponsible to think "hey, I don't feel sick at all, so I'll just do my thing."

 

I know it's hard to wrap our heads around, but right now, no matter how healthy you feel or how few deaths you have in your locality, you need to react properly and get the heck out of public life. In other words, if you wait until the jaws of the Mawkrusha are open around your neck, it's too late. Avoid the battlefield to begin with so that the beast has zero chance to eat you (or your Grandma).

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