Ossiarch Bonereapers, hideously overpowered?

[XReN]

7 minutes ago, JackStreicher said:

It’s a 83.33% chance if it throws all three shots.

Your math is wrong, the formulae is 3*0,67*0,67*0,5*5=damage (which is 3,36675)

EDIT:
This is what I used to look up probability of killing a 5 wound character in 1 shooting phase

http://40k.ghostlords.com/dice/aos.html#attacks=3&hit=3&wound=3&d=5&save=4

Edited November 13, 2019 by XReN

[whispersofblood]

6 minutes ago, JackStreicher said:

It’s a 83.33% chance if it throws all three shots.

against a 5+ it‘s 111% chance.

Got to be honest. Meh. Infantry heroes are getting huge application bonuses, like stronger prayers, aura affects, Bonuses to cast, etc. Hags aren't even that impressive globally.

There is basically nothing these characters really fear and they are cheap. If you want to play in the world of all possible factions then there should be considerations like the crawler. 

Outside of organized play if your friend is playing 4 crawlers well he's got deep pockets, he's a ****** and while the game might not be fun if you stick with it you'll probably win most battleplan anyway.

[XReN]

And even when you are not as stupid as myself and actually sum up the chances of inflicting 1 and 2 unsaved attacks, they are still not at 80% even against 5+ save with no look out sir

Edited November 13, 2019 by XReN

[JackStreicher]

53 minutes ago, XReN said:

Your math is wrong, the formulae is 3*0,67*0,67*0,5*5=damage (which is 3,36675)

EDIT:
This is what I used to look up probability of killing a 5 wound character in 1 shooting phase

http://40k.ghostlords.com/dice/aos.html#attacks=3&hit=3&wound=3&d=5&save=4

3*4/6*4/6*0,5*100 = 66.7%
withput lookout sir it‘s 83.33% (3*5/6*4/6*0.5*100)

your advance is to multiply in the 5 damage at the end. It‘s not about calculating the dmg inflicted it‘s about the kill. 5 dmg == Dead which means I calculated a 66,7% chance to cause an unsaved wound to a hero (or a 83.33% chance). 

VS a 5+ with lookout sir:3*4/6*4/6*4/6*100= 88.3%
 

without lookout sir:

111%

Edited November 13, 2019 by JackStreicher

[Panzer]

35 minutes ago, JackStreicher said:

against a 5+ it‘s 111% chance.

(x) doubt

As long as you throw dice and there's even a tiny chance of failure it can't be 100% not to mention above 100%.

[JackStreicher]

27 minutes ago, Panzer said:

(x) doubt

As long as you throw dice and there's even a tiny chance of failure it can't be 100% not to mention above 100%.

Variance not included.

I calculate the average chance to cause an unsaved wound (x3 due to 3 shots)

it causes 1.11 unsaved hits which results in killing 1.11 characters. The % is misleading

meaning 110%\3 = 36.66% chance per shot to wound successfully == 110% to cause A successful wound distributed over 3 shots. Each unsaved wound= kill

to round it off: multiply *5 to get the statistically caused wounds then it should be on par with @XReN‘s calculation. Though that is also misleading due to a dmg of 5 never only causing a fraction of it‘s dmg.

Edited November 13, 2019 by JackStreicher

[JPjr]

I have to say Games Workshop really missed a trick with all those Becca Scott 'How To Play' videos by not including a lengthy & querulous fractions, equations and algebra section.

[sal4m4nd3r]

Have we reached a verdict on if they are hideously overpowered or not.. cause I have this gift card to pitchfork and torch emporium that is burning a hole in my pocket.. but I'm not going to buy em if we aren't marching cause I cant store them anywhere..

[JackStreicher]

2 minutes ago, sal4m4nd3r said:

Have we reached a verdict on if they are hideously overpowered or not.. cause I have this gift card to pitchfork and torch emporium that is burning a hole in my pocket.. but I'm not going to buy em if we aren't marching cause I cant store them anywhere..

They seem fine except for Petrifex Elite as far as I can tell as of now ^^

[XReN]

25 minutes ago, JackStreicher said:

Variance not included.

it causes 1.11 unsaved hits which results in killing 1.11 characters. The % is misleading

meaning 110%\3 = 36.66% chance per shot to wound successfully == 110% to cause A successful wound distributed over 3 shots. Each unsaved wound= kill

I admit that I messed up with my own math, however you are talking about expected outcome, whille probability of this outcome is 75% against 5+ no look out sir hero dropping down 52,1% against 4+ Look Out Sir. That means you want to take 2 to almost guarantee a turn 1 kill against vital enemy character. Is it BS? I don't think so. 

And there are things that can naturally counter it. Armies with reserves, Sylvaneth, Idoneth and armies capable of outdropping OB and casting Prismatic Pallisade/shooting down Crawler  before Crawler can shoot are the worst offenders. Playing in Ulgu or Aqshy are lesser ones, as well as custom build terrain that would serve as a LOS block (there isn't a single place in my country where there are tables fully loaded with only GW scenery, unless it's someone's kitchen)

I think there is no more things for me to talk about on the matter and I appreciate the math class, thank you.

Edited November 13, 2019 by XReN

[JackStreicher]

@XReN 
nah it‘s ~66% with lookout sir and a 4+ =}
hobestly: spread your shots to 3 different heroes and hope for that juicy 22% to kick in twice xD. Or a ~ 30% chance against a 5+ hero per shot.

and then add +1 shots granted by the Liege Kavalos and double tap one hero. 
 

the catapult would be fine without the oneshot shot, and hitting on 3s (or only causing 4 dmg instead of 5)

[XReN]

18 minutes ago, JackStreicher said:

the catapult would be fine without the oneshot shot, and hitting on 3s (or only causing 4 dmg instead of 5)

I would prefer it this way with also -1 rend on main attack

[schwabbele]

It’s too early to say if it’s fine or not. But based on GWs past nerfs, they surely will faq asap when crying in their stores intensifies. 

[Thostos]

53 minutes ago, JackStreicher said:

They seem fine except for Petrifex Elite as far as I can tell as of now ^^

 Petrifex needs to be nerfed...perhaps become a command ability that works once per game for the chosen Battleround.

 

[sal4m4nd3r]

26 minutes ago, Thostos said:

 Petrifex needs to be nerfed...perhaps become a command ability that works once per game for the chosen Battleround.

 

Its the same problem with hagg narr... you are either playing petrifix OR you are playing a fun/fluffy/theme list. You cant fix this broken subfaction like you did Gristlegore because of the innate mechanics it modifies. So you would have to go full Kharadron Overlords and just re-write the entire subfaction through an errata which I (personally) abhor rules writing via faq. 

[JackStreicher]

1 minute ago, sal4m4nd3r said:

Its the same problem with hagg narr... you are either playing petrifix OR you are playing a fun/fluffy/theme list. You cant fix this broken subfaction like you did Gristlegore because of the innate mechanics it modifies. So you would have to go full Kharadron Overlords and just re-write the entire subfaction through an errata which I (personally) abhor rules writing via faq. 

It‘s not only the +1 armor that makes them great but also the -1 rend... who thought it was a good idea to slap both, offense and defense onto the same subfaction?

[PJetski]

OBR may not be overpowered, but they have some seriously stupid mechanics that are not fun to play against.

Tip #1: Cast endless spells (like a Pendulum) through your Crawlers to weaken them and make it more likely that you can instantly kill models. Then start targeting support heroes, or target the models in the middle of a unit to break coherency and cause half the unit to die at the end of the turn.

Tip #2: Put two harvesters inside a block of 40 Guard. Each time a model dies within 3" of both of the harvesters you roll 2 dice and respawn a guard for each 4+. Since the harvester ability activates immediately when a model is slain, and since damage is allocated 1 at a time, on average your unit of guard will take 0 damage when it gets attacked. It doesn't even matter how much damage your opponent can do. With a block of 40 Guard youll have enough models to make the odds of killing the unit (0.25)^40 at best. If you play an army that can't kill the Harvesters then youll almost never kill the guard.

[Forrix]

49 minutes ago, PJetski said:

OBR may not be overpowered, but they have some seriously stupid mechanics that are not fun to play against.

Tip #1: Cast endless spells (like a Pendulum) through your Crawlers to weaken them and make it more likely that you can instantly kill models. Then start targeting support heroes, or target the models in the middle of a unit to break coherency and cause half the unit to die at the end of the turn.

Tip #2: Put two harvesters inside a block of 40 Guard. Each time a model dies within 3" of both of the harvesters you roll 2 dice and respawn a guard for each 4+. Since the harvester ability activates immediately when a model is slain, and since damage is allocated 1 at a time, on average your unit of guard will take 0 damage when it gets attacked. It doesn't even matter how much damage your opponent can do. With a block of 40 Guard youll have enough models to make the odds of killing the unit (0.25)^40 at best. If you play an army that can't kill the Harvesters then youll almost never kill the guard.

1.) I'm not sure how bad this will actually be since Curse of Stele is once per battle and if you don't string your units out you won't lose coherency. I DEFINETLY see this being a major "Gotcha" ability though that will tilt some players. In a broader point is killing units that are out of coherency really necessary anymore? It feels like that was introduced to stop people from abusing buff bubbles but the change to "Wholly Within" does the same thing and is less punishing.

2.) Yuuup… Realistically the whole unit won't be in range of both Harvesters so you'll only need to kill a handful of guard but math wise its still insane (I've seen some calculations for 5 model) and most lists will be running at least one hero who can hand out 3 model resurrections. I expect this will get Errata'd when their initial FAQ comes out but as its been pointed out Petrifex Elite is still going to make balancing this battletome difficult as it is such a powerful sub faction.

[readercolin]

1 hour ago, PJetski said:

Tip #2: Put two harvesters inside a block of 40 Guard. Each time a model dies within 3" of both of the harvesters you roll 2 dice and respawn a guard for each 4+. Since the harvester ability activates immediately when a model is slain, and since damage is allocated 1 at a time, on average your unit of guard will take 0 damage when it gets attacked. It doesn't even matter how much damage your opponent can do. With a block of 40 Guard youll have enough models to make the odds of killing the unit (0.25)^40 at best. If you play an army that can't kill the Harvesters then youll almost never kill the guard.

Congrats, you have sunk 840 points (with 1 unit of battleline) into one blob of your army.  You can take your 1 blob and it will be undefeated, and hold one section of the table.  Your blob moves at 4" per turn, unless you run them or spend your RD points on them (which also means you can't spend your RD points on something else).  With this blob, you can control... 1 objective.  There is no feasible way to run 2 of these blobs, and even if you did most games have 3+ objectives.

I'm not saying that this is bad per say, but I think that in most games it will be more viable to have your points broken up across more units.  Additionally, if your blob charges, you can fairly easily get your block of guard into combat, but then you won't be able to get your harvesters close enough because they can't complete a charge (remember, have to end within 1/2").  Or if you bring your harvesters around the edges so that they can complete a charge, they are now vulnerable to being counter charged.  You can kind of get around this by stringing your guard out to keep some near your harvesters, but now you can't get as many on target reducing your damage, which means that it will be even harder for your blob to take and hold objectives.  So now all your opponent has to do is toss some chaff in front of this blob, make it hard for you to maneuver it to objectives, and then win on the rest of the table because almost half your points are tied up here and it can be held back by maybe 1/4 of your opponents force.

[tripchimeras]

The thing with instant death abilities, like in the case with the crawler, isn't that they are OP.  In aggregate they usually are not.  They usually unreliable and difficult to achieve, which is not something you want competitively.  The issue is that when they occur, they are not fun.  Will a crawler insta-kill a morathi type character on turn 1? Probably not, and the probabilities are certainly not high enough to have a huge "competitive" impact on its own.  HOWEVER, when it happens it is the worst kind of feeling for your opponent, which generally also means a not amazing feeling for you.  You were both basically robbed of a game by a high variance roulette wheel.  It's not fun.  Not to mention that these abilities open themselves up to gimmick lists that make them more likely (do damage to yourself etc), again likely competitively limiting, but THAT guy will love it, and it would be super dumb to deal with.

Things like a Terrorgheist's 6 mortal wounds on a 6+ are one thing; they can be accounted for, they are counter-able, there are ward-saves and protections, adjustments that can be made.  Insta-death abilities and their ilk are really not.  They are rarely strong in competitive play, but they are one of the worst ways for a new or inexperienced player to be introduced into the game when they happen.  I do not find the crawler to be OP, I find it to be stupid and poorly thought out from GW's perspective.  Its an anti-fun model, which sucks because it looks amazing. 

Edited November 13, 2019 by tripchimeras

[PJetski]

14 minutes ago, tripchimeras said:

  I do not find the crawler to be OP, I find it to be stupid and poorly thought out from GW's perspective.  Its an anti-fun model, which sucks because it looks amazing. 

I agree on every point. Crawlers and double harvester blobs are not necessarily overpowered, but they create very negative play experiences.

The goal of the game is to make sure both players are having fun and creating statistically immortal units and situations where your opponent cant do anything are not good for the game as a whole. 

[Kugane]

Anyone else had issues with the immortis/stalker chest piece collarbones being broken?

I got 2 sets of feast of bones and in both sets bit #8 was broken. GW was nice enough to offer replacements and will likely send them soon, but I still find it odd that in both cases the exact same part was broken at the exact same spot as well.

[Emissary]

1 hour ago, Kugane said:

Anyone else had issues with the immortis/stalker chest piece collarbones being broken?

I got 2 sets of feast of bones and in both sets bit #8 was broken. GW was nice enough to offer replacements and will likely send them soon, but I still find it odd that in both cases the exact same part was broken at the exact same spot as well.

Had several like that.  Looked like the mold likes to get a small air bubble in those areas which make them weaker and more prone to snapping.  

[Kugane]

18 minutes ago, Emissary said:

Had several like that.  Looked like the mold likes to get a small air bubble in those areas which make them weaker and more prone to snapping.  

I assume the same. I keep seeing like a tiny raised area near these snapped spots, unlike the kind that you have when you bend something too far. Slightly dissapointing, I hope the replacements wont have the same issue.

Edited November 13, 2019 by Kugane

[Sleboda]

10 hours ago, XReN said:

Also you can counter Crawler with deployment and LOS-blocks.

Has there been official clarification on the Crawler needing line of sight?