The Rumour Thread

[Chikout]

1 hour ago, JackStreicher said:

Why am I in doubt about that? It seems you extreamly overestimate production costs. GW hasn‘t been in any danger for 15 years? And they did better and better with hardly any setback after the old world exploded. (And they did worse before not due to overproduction while WHF existed but due to greedy and stupid pricing and release policies).

if they produce 10,000 copies of Gorkamorka for 140€ then their retailer price would be 70€ which means the actual production costs per unit would be around (Max) 30€ if they stick to the old rule of selling for 2.5x the production costs. Realistically the prod. Costs per unit would be somewhere around 15-20€.

selling half of it would therefor cover all their costs with ease. After that the revenue would explode. And that is not accounting for their online shop sales of which every sold box covers the prod. Costs of ~4.5 boxes.

The 50% number was just to give an easy mathematical example, which I said in my previous post.  I know production costs are much less than that, but when you have unsold goods you start to get inventory costs which build over time. The point stands that over production involves that financial risks that under production does not. 

The gorkamorka thing is a story that I've read on Dakka, warseer and Portent a number of times. It is possible it is not true. The only evidence I could find with a quick Google is that gw was not doing well at the end of the 90s.

[Kaleb Daark]

48 minutes ago, alghero81 said:

My AoS group is small, most players do 40k but now out of 6 players 3 are starting Ossiarch Bonereapers, fair enough we all got the starting box but we also paid hundreds more for the other bits. Not much significative but I think if you want something you are going for it deal or no deal... not all start collecting boxes are good value, this does not mean no one starts the armies without them or with poor start collecting...

indeed, but a box like that is a catalyst.  It's there to stoke enthusiasm and get you to buy into the faction, and if you've been given lots of sweets for free which seem value aside, very special, then you'll buy into whatever else is coming.

@Chikout there's a lot of tools available now which were'nt available then. You can register interest to gauge volume demands, and take pre-orders paid for like the made to order.

The injection mould tooling for those sprues works out at roughly 100k per sprue, but you're talking a volume of several hundred thousand units before the thing needs to be changed.  The cost relative to the material works out at about 50 pence per sprue.  You're looking at a cost of about three to five pounds for each of the average boxes at raw bill of material cost once overheads, costs and D&D time have beem taken into account.

The full hardback book printing and the dice and extras will enhance costs, but again, for a large box such as soul wars or the sisters box you're looking at ten to fifteen pounds max, twenty at an absolute push.  it's not unrealistic to look at this sort of product being at 500-1000% markup.  it's the nature of such production models and anyone that makes stuff in volume in plastic does the same thing.

In reality the question that was probably asked was "if we bring back sisters will it recoupe the cost of  around 1 million invest in the tooling (once the units have been established to call it a proper army.  So you'd be looking to recover that cost at 2.5 times over to make it viable.

 

But anyway... an army of really big giants  - if they're bone grindergiant size that would be amazeballs.

And they must include a Johan ... we must be firm about the running away Johan.

[JackStreicher]

37 minutes ago, Chikout said:

The 50% number was just to give an easy mathematical example, which I said in my previous post.  I know production costs are much less than that, but when you have unsold goods you start to get inventory costs which build over time. The point stands that over production involves that financial risks that under production does not. 

The gorkamorka thing is a story that I've read on Dakka, warseer and Portent a number of times. It is possible it is not true. The only evidence I could find with a quick Google is that gw was not doing well at the end of the 90s.

I agree with you I just see it a bit differently since GW actually announced around the AoS 1.0 (could've been a bit earlier or later) that they'd go for limited boxes since those would be more lucrative (well they also spoke about how new armies could only be viable for a few years and then would be stopped alltogether since new armies sell better - which is not what you want to hear). 
They use "limited" products as any other company does: Dial up the price since the demand outweights the supply. It's a nice side-effect that there won't be any inventory costs but I am rather certain that that was not the reason why they switchted to it.

[michu]

4 minutes ago, Kaleb Daark said:

And they must include a Johan ... we must be firm about the running away Johan.

I wanted to say "give him a break" but then... yeah, without Johann it doesn't count.

[Charleston]

Okay guys, Papa needs sugar! Do we have any Leaks for StD? Or can we at least make some? Is here noone related to a chief designer at GW? Or has accidentialy access to their site to make some potato pictures? Facility Manager? AAAARRGHGHH!!!! I want more input about them, and I want it noooooowww

[Overread]

We already had our allocated Slaves to Darkness leak with the massive spreadsheet of releases. We know they are being pre-ordered on the 7th and released on the 14th. There's also Endless Spells confirmed by the overseas shipping company website, though they appear to be coming next year (if I recall right but I could be wrong on that date).

 

We know there's the new getting started set with new warriors and knights and leader on a massive monster mount and that they are all push-fit models (with a likely release of multi-part warriors/knights possibly coming out next year). 

[Raviv]

13 minutes ago, Overread said:

We already had our allocated Slaves to Darkness leak with the massive spreadsheet of releases. We know they are being pre-ordered on the 7th and released on the 14th. There's also Endless Spells confirmed by the overseas shipping company website, though they appear to be coming next year (if I recall right but I could be wrong on that date).

The endless spells were on the spreadsheet as well, so they are coming on the 14th along with the Battletome and the Start Collecting box.

 

[Chikout]

47 minutes ago, Charleston said:

Okay guys, Papa needs sugar! Do we have any Leaks for StD? Or can we at least make some? Is here noone related to a chief designer at GW? Or has accidentialy access to their site to make some potato pictures? Facility Manager? AAAARRGHGHH!!!! I want more input about them, and I want it noooooowww

We can expect official rules previews from the 2nd of December which is just over two weeks away. 

Regarding the giants, I hope they’re not too big. If they are going to do imperial knights in AOS they should copy the scale variety that range has now. Battleline, elite and hero giants in three distinct sizes would be cool. 

[HorticulusTGA]

4 hours ago, Chikout said:

We can expect official rules previews from the 2nd of December which is just over two weeks away. 

Regarding the giants, I hope they’re not too big. If they are going to do imperial knights in AOS they should copy the scale variety that range has now. Battleline, elite and hero giants in three distinct sizes would be cool. 

You talk about "the Giants" like they were happening - are you basing that on something else than @Kaleb Daark cryptic messages ?!  

I still think they would have said "gargantuan" instead of "giant news" if they were talking about a new races / kit, instead of some HUGE news in the form of a whole new race, with new gods Tyrion & Teclis, and a new Realm (Hysh) for the first time truly explored... (But ofc I would love to be wrong here !)

[EccentricCircle]

9 hours ago, JackStreicher said:

Why am I in doubt about that? It seems you extreamly overestimate production costs. GW hasn‘t been in any danger for 15 years? And they did better and better with hardly any setback after the old world exploded. (And they did worse before not due to overproduction while WHF existed but due to greedy and stupid pricing and release policies).

if they produce 10,000 copies of Gorkamorka for 140€ then their retailer price would be 70€ which means the actual production costs per unit would be around (Max) 30€ if they stick to the old rule of selling for 2.5x the production costs. Realistically the prod. Costs per unit would be somewhere around 15-20€.

selling half of it would therefor cover all their costs with ease. After that the revenue would explode. And that is not accounting for their online shop sales of which every sold box covers the prod. Costs of ~4.5 boxes.

Bear in mind that the Gorkamorak fiasco was decades ago, so the economics would have been quite different back then (no online store for a start!)

[Turin Turambar]

6 hours ago, HorticulusTGA said:

I still think they would have said "gargantuan" instead of "giant news" if they were talking about a new races / kit, instead of some HUGE news in the form of a whole new race, with new gods Tyrion & Teclis, and a new Realm (Hysh) for the first time truly explored... (But ofc I would love to be wrong here !)

I don't think it will be gargants for similar reasons.

I also don't think gitmob (due to it being too close to the snarfflang gies, i would think they would have already given them gitmob keywords) as some have suggested it might be (can't remember if it was here or youtube)

if its just one faction its either Hysh aelves or its something that hasn't been hinted at yet and it probably isn't giants. assuming it is a faction reveal for AoS or underworlds, etc. and not a campaign announcement (which would likely lead to new hysh armies anyway)

 

either way we will almost certainly get some nice hysh lore, and likely more hysh aelve and/or twins hints/lore

[Blightzkrieg]

Could the "giant" quote potentially relate to Forgeworld working on more AoS super units? I know they'd been planning on talking about the future of Forgeworld at some point, as it seems like it had kind of hit a rut. 

Edited November 18, 2019 by Blightzkrieg

[HiddenElephant]

So, I got some thoughts on that teaser.  It could go 1 of 3 ways.

Either:

A:  There is a faction of Giants coming, and they're from Hysh.  (think like Cloud Giants and Storm Giants from DnD).

B:  There is a faction of Hysh Elves coming, but their twist on the elf formula is that they are giant and tall.

See:  It's actually 2 factions announced, as a versus thing.  Giants versus Light Elves, with Light Elves being the new High Elves.

I kinda want it to be any of these 3 things, but I think I'm wrong.

[Horseburner]

1 minute ago, HiddenElephant said:

So, I got some thoughts on that teaser.  It could go 1 of 3 ways.

Either:

A:  There is a faction of Giants coming, and they're from Hysh.  (think like Cloud Giants and Storm Giants from DnD).

B:  There is a faction of Hysh Elves coming, but their twist on the elf formula is that they are giant and tall.

See:  It's actually 2 factions announced, as a versus thing.  Giants versus Light Elves, with Light Elves being the new High Elves.

I kinda want it to be any of these 3 things, but I think I'm wrong.

As much as I would love giants I think a giant line wouldn't be fun to play, at all. I mean a list comprised of 5 minis? How would you balance that?

My bet would be Elves and some of the uncatered factions like Seraphon etc. and then a FW giant centerpiece release for destruction or something like that. 🤪

[Hollow]

Erm... you do know that Knights exist in 40k right? 

[Horseburner]

6 minutes ago, Hollow said:

Erm... you do know that Knights exist in 40k right? 

Yea and the only reason I would ever buy one would be to paint it.

[Hollow]

But it shows that there is a good possibility that GW will port something similar into AOS using giants. 

[Eldarain]

And with Gristlegore and Beastclaw a mostly/entirely Behemoth force isn't that unusual.

[Horseburner]

15 minutes ago, Hollow said:

But it shows that there is a good possibility that GW will port something similar into AOS using giants. 

A possibilty yes but the Knights are mostly shooting right? How would that be transferred to AoS in a reasonable way?

And with the different type of army building you wouldn't just be able to include a Knight wherever you want like you do in 40K.

Edited November 18, 2019 by Horseburner
Wording.

[Horseburner]

3 minutes ago, Eldarain said:

And with Gristlegore and Beastclaw a mostly/entirely Behemoth force isn't that unusual.

Don't get me wrong. I want giant centerpiece models, a whole army would be even better! But I don't see it happening unless it's a Forge World model.

 

I guess time will tell.

[armisael]

15 minutes ago, Horseburner said:

Don't get me wrong. I want giant centerpiece models, a whole army would be even better! But I don't see it happening unless it's a Forge World model.

 

I guess time will tell.

But it is already happen for Gristlegore...

[Horseburner]

11 minutes ago, armisael said:

But it is already happen for Gristlegore...

And the moon is round, what's your point? /s 😁

I wouldn't use "The Unbeatable Army" as a measuring device. Especially since we are talking about a whole army launch not just the same model again, again and again...

How would everyone react to a one model army release? 😂

Edited November 18, 2019 by Horseburner
/s

[Eldarain]

Given what they pulled off the last time they released a Giant in terms of model variety within one kit, I think with their superior kits now it could be a shockingly diverse army even from one kit.

Edited November 18, 2019 by Eldarain

[armisael]

19 minutes ago, Horseburner said:

And the moon is round, what's your point? /s 😁

I wouldn't use "The Unbeatable Army" as a measuring device. Especially since we are talking about a whole army launch not just the same model again, again and again...

How would everyone react to a one model army release? 😂

There is noting to do with “Unbeatable army” here.

I just want to point out that army with a behemoth centerpiece actually exist. which is Gristlegore. To be fare, even it is only 1 model but there are 4 versions of them.

And GW can balanced it. 

[Indecisive]

BCR are kind of closer to Custodes. There isn't something that truly parallels Imperial Knights, naturally given the short existence of the setting.
Although, how you do the same in a fantasy setting is a little trick (faction of huge dragons?)

light elves being giant angel things would be something