Powercreep - Fact Or Fiction

[AverageBoss]

7 hours ago, Kitsumy said:

Hmm those skulcrushers are ok on minimun size. But the buff being 6 is i think excesive.

 

They do 10 mortals on the charge as average. For 360p. Thats absolutly nuts. Only that will kill 70% of big ass beast with 400+point costs. And after tgat they will do around 16 0 rend wounds that usually will be at least 8 wounds. So on the charge they will on average do 18 wounds on any model ( more if thst model have a bad save) for 360p it is great and im not counting the new passive to reroll 1s being cloose to a hero or the banner to get more atacks etc.

 

So yeah a 360p unit killing to any big beast on average on any  big unit is pretty great

There are things in the game that are cheaper, that can deal just as many if not more MWs, without even having to charge.

MW output has jumped dramatically as the game has gone on, and this is nothing new. This was done largely to counter heavy armor builds (2+ or better, reroll ones).

Check out the Gaunt Summoner, Warpfire Throwers, Knight Heraldors, Slaughterpriests, the Pendulum Endless Spell, etc.

Also take in mind that a Khorne army is going to lack a notable shooting phase, they are going to hit above their weight in other areas to make up for that.

[Skreech Verminking]

1 hour ago, AverageBoss said:

There are things in the game that are cheaper, that can deal just as many if not more MWs, without even having to charge.

MW output has jumped dramatically as the game has gone on, and this is nothing new. This was done largely to counter heavy armor builds (2+ or better, reroll ones).

Yep from killing Brutes to burning halve naked snake lady’s. 

[RuneBrush]

+++ MOD HAT +++

Gentle reminder for everybody to take a breath before posting.  I appreciate this topic is something that gets our blood up, but a few comments have been pretty borderline rude which isn't acceptable. 

I completely agree that we need to discuss things seriously, but let's try to keep things in perspective.

[Benkei]

2 hours ago, AverageBoss said:

There are things in the game that are cheaper, that can deal just as many if not more MWs, without even having to charge.

MW output has jumped dramatically as the game has gone on, and this is nothing new. This was done largely to counter heavy armor builds (2+ or better, reroll ones).

Check out the Gaunt Summoner, Warpfire Throwers, Knight Heraldors, Slaughterpriests, the Pendulum Endless Spell, etc.

Also take in mind that a Khorne army is going to lack a notable shooting phase, they are going to hit above their weight in other areas to make up for that.

Cannons and "non magic" Blood Boils/Endless Spells beg to differ. Also, DoK get no shooting and they are still supposedly OP, right? 

Also I wonder how does a no shooting army manage 4 Always Attack First BTs? 

[Sleboda]

3 hours ago, svnvaldez said:

Are you a tournament player and upset that what you use to use to go 5-0 is no longer "on meta"?  

Thank you.

To be blunt, f meta. Meta does not exist. Hell, it's not even a word. It's a damn prefix.

Play the game. Experience new armies. Adjust your strategy if you like, or don't. 

Enjoy the freaking hobby. 

 

F "meta."

[Deadkitten]

14 hours ago, Kugane said:

I think the fact that underpowered armies dont sell well. Equal power armies also dont sell well. They may feel its better to make the next army ever so slightly stronger to make sure it at least sells to the tournament crowd? On a casual level i think people can adjust their army list to be compatible.

This is the first I've heard that equal power armies don't sell well.  Has GW said this?  Not challenging you comment, would just like to know more. 

[CyderPirate]

There's almost certainly an element of power creep, but most of it can be attributed to tome/vs no tome. Occasionally something slips through the net, but it usually gets corrected in one or another.

I'd just suggest a bit of caution in your responses and wait to see how things play out on the tabletop. Trust in the playtesters, they've gotten things mostly right so far. 

Take the panic about the juggernaut update, for example. Theorycrafting about how much damage a unit is going to do on the charge doesn't really represent how things will work out in practice. You need to have a unit of 6, so if you take one out before they get to you, you've stripped away a big chunk of that damage. To do the full 6D3 MWs, they need to get all 6 into combat - not an easy feat when you consider the size of the bases they're on and the footprint of your terrain. Even if they do manage to get all 6 into base - that might be the army's only way of dealing with certain threats. I don't play the faction, so don't know its strengths/weaknesses, but if they have limited access to rend, for example, mortal wounds on the charge might be their best way to take out elite units with good saves and re-rolls.

 

[Kugane]

9 hours ago, Deadkitten said:

This is the first I've heard that equal power armies don't sell well.  Has GW said this?  Not challenging you comment, would just like to know more. 

GW never claimed any of this of course, its pure speculation of what I read on reddit and hear on podcasts, but there is a correlation that weaker armies dont sell as well as GW hoped, also if a new army offers nothing better than older armies its less likely to sell. There are some threads that talk about total sales of product lines on various sites about that.

I think its normal though, especially in western culture, where many people want the latest, newest, best thing. Even if its only marginally better than what they already have, there are people who will spend cash on it. (Cars, phones, etc). I think its the same for miniature gaming. A new release will always reach some audience it resonates with, but if you want to reach to an even larger crowd - make it better than current stuff.

[Requizen]

23 minutes ago, Kugane said:

GW never claimed any of this of course, its pure speculation of what I read on reddit and hear on podcasts, but there is a correlation that weaker armies dont sell as well as GW hoped, also if a new army offers nothing better than older armies its less likely to sell. There are some threads that talk about total sales of product lines on various sites about that.

I think its normal though, especially in western culture, where many people want the latest, newest, best thing. Even if its only marginally better than what they already have, there are people who will spend cash on it. (Cars, phones, etc). I think its the same for miniature gaming. A new release will always reach some audience it resonates with, but if you want to reach to an even larger crowd - make it better than current stuff.

It's completely subjective unless GW releases numbers, and even then what "selling well" means is pretty handwavey. Enough to make back cost? Enough to double cost of production? There's stuff like loss-leaders etc that can change that definition.

Anecdotally, in my area, I've seen people buying and playing every army with a Battletome pretty equally. KO was probably the weakest seller, especially once people realized how mediocre the Boats were even before the nerfs. 

I think people like armies that are strong on theme, and a lot of complaints come from people whose theme isn't being met in power. KO has a cool theme of Dorfs on Boats, but the Boats are only ok at best, so the theme is not really there in an actual army. Meanwhile, most anything in Deepkin is solid outside maybe the Turtle, but most people are into it for the Eels and Fish-Aelves anyway so it works. 

Most complaints about power level I've seen have come from people who want a specific style of play or build and don't see it met. People who want to play only Mortal Khorne and not the rest of the book, or only Vanguard Stormcast, or only Warherd BoC, or only Troggoth Gloomspite (though that one they kind of accept as middling because it's just that cool). 

IMO the armies that sell the best are where it all matches. FEC is an easy sell - you like Ghoul Kings on big monsters and some linemen to sit on objectives? That's the top list, and it's the most popular aesthetic for people buying into it as well. People who like Goblins generally like them for the same thing: having blobs of useless dudes piling on + Squig Riders, and are happy to see that this build is fairly competitive. 

[amysrevenge]

17 minutes ago, Requizen said:

IMO the armies that sell the best are where it all matches. FEC is an easy sell - you like Ghoul Kings on big monsters and some linemen to sit on objectives? That's the top list, and it's the most popular aesthetic for people buying into it as well. People who like Goblins generally like them for the same thing: having blobs of useless dudes piling on + Squig Riders, and are happy to see that this build is fairly competitive. 

That's a nice bit of insight.  Stuff that looks like it should, and plays like it should, is more popular than stuff where the aesthetic and the playstyle don't match expectations. 

It's kind of why Beasts of Chaos don't really work for me.  The models are great, and the rules are not particularly under- or over-powered , but the best playstyle doesn't line up to my expectation for their aesthetic.

[Kugane]

29 minutes ago, Requizen said:

It's completely subjective unless GW releases numbers, and even then what "selling well" means is pretty handwavey. Enough to make back cost? Enough to double cost of production? There's stuff like loss-leaders etc that can change that definition.

Anecdotally, in my area, I've seen people buying and playing every army with a Battletome pretty equally. KO was probably the weakest seller, especially once people realized how mediocre the Boats were even before the nerfs. 

I think people like armies that are strong on theme, and a lot of complaints come from people whose theme isn't being met in power. KO has a cool theme of Dorfs on Boats, but the Boats are only ok at best, so the theme is not really there in an actual army. Meanwhile, most anything in Deepkin is solid outside maybe the Turtle, but most people are into it for the Eels and Fish-Aelves anyway so it works. 

Most complaints about power level I've seen have come from people who want a specific style of play or build and don't see it met. People who want to play only Mortal Khorne and not the rest of the book, or only Vanguard Stormcast, or only Warherd BoC, or only Troggoth Gloomspite (though that one they kind of accept as middling because it's just that cool). 

IMO the armies that sell the best are where it all matches. FEC is an easy sell - you like Ghoul Kings on big monsters and some linemen to sit on objectives? That's the top list, and it's the most popular aesthetic for people buying into it as well. People who like Goblins generally like them for the same thing: having blobs of useless dudes piling on + Squig Riders, and are happy to see that this build is fairly competitive. 

I see! You see so much stuff being stated as facts, its sometimes hard to figure out what statements are real and which are not. I thought the things you keep seeing about stuff like DOK and Idoneth having poor sale numbers was a fact from GW themselves, but I stand corrected. After some googling I can't find any actual numbers.

I agree with the things matching the rules will sell well. I see it happen at locals a lot as well. I dont see anyone buying older stuff now though, like goblins was THE thing 2 months ago and now hardly anyone seems interrested. Flavour of the month I suppose.

[The World Tree]

2 hours ago, Kugane said:

GW never claimed any of this of course, its pure speculation of what I read on reddit and hear on podcasts, but there is a correlation that weaker armies dont sell as well as GW hoped, also if a new army offers nothing better than older armies its less likely to sell. There are some threads that talk about total sales of product lines on various sites about that.

I think its normal though, especially in western culture, where many people want the latest, newest, best thing. Even if its only marginally better than what they already have, there are people who will spend cash on it. (Cars, phones, etc). I think its the same for miniature gaming. A new release will always reach some audience it resonates with, but if you want to reach to an even larger crowd - make it better than current stuff.

 

Of course we have consistently heard that Deepkin have been a sales disappointment, and yet they have strong competitive potential.

[Sleboda]

2 hours ago, Kugane said:

. I dont see anyone buying older stuff now though, like goblins was THE thing 2 months ago and now hardly anyone seems interrested

Just as a note from my past when I worked for GW trade sales. We had a phrase "new releases are our life's blood."

It's been many years now, so I won't say my numbers are perfect, but as 'get the gist' measure, they'll work.

A new model comes out. 65% of all the kits it will ever sell do so in the first week. Another 20% go in the next few months. The remaining 15% is the rest of time.

It's not based on power or the like, just freshness. Generally speaking, people are hyped for New Stuff, almost no matter what it is.

We really struggled to get retailers to understand that. "Oh, I'll stock one pack, and if it sells, I special order more." Too late, doofus. But I digress.

Incidentally, I think this is why warscrolls and other card stock or special items seem to have limited release, and why the popular Kill Team starter is not coming back - the demand (often overstated, btw) usually fails to justify the second release run.

[Requizen]

2 hours ago, Sleboda said:

Just as a note from my past when I worked for GW trade sales. We had a phrase "new releases are our life's blood."

It's been many years now, so I won't say my numbers are perfect, but as 'get the gist' measure, they'll work.

A new model comes out. 65% of all the kits it will ever sell do so in the first week. Another 20% go in the next few months. The remaining 15% is the rest of time.

It's not based on power or the like, just freshness. Generally speaking, people are hyped for New Stuff, almost no matter what it is.

We really struggled to get retailers to understand that. "Oh, I'll stock one pack, and if it sells, I special order more." Too late, doofus. But I digress.

Incidentally, I think this is why warscrolls and other card stock or special items seem to have limited release, and why the popular Kill Team starter is not coming back - the demand (often overstated, btw) usually fails to justify the second release run.

I thinknthat also has to do with people getting what they want: if a player is interested in getting an army or unit, they'll get it as it comes out and likely as much as they want, and then not any more later. If a player wasn't going to buy, say, Nighthaunt on release, it's unlikely they'll pick it up in a month or year later. Some people do, since they have budgets or projects etc, but the majority of people buy new things when it's new rather than holding off. 

[Deadkitten]

12 hours ago, Kugane said:

....

After some googling I can't find any actual numbers.

....

https://investor.games-workshop.com/annual-reports-and-half-year-results/

The financials that GW files.  There's an analyst out there that will do a summary from time to time.

[SwampHeart]

1 hour ago, Deadkitten said:

https://investor.games-workshop.com/annual-reports-and-half-year-results/

The financials that GW files.  There's an analyst out there that will do a summary from time to time.

Just as a heads up those numbers regard GW's various channels (i.e trade, retail, black library, etc.) but they include no further breakdown. It doesn't look at say the split of AoS vs. 40k or of armies inside those groups. Mostly because that information is of little value to most investors. 

[Elmir]

12 hours ago, Sleboda said:

Just as a note from my past when I worked for GW trade sales. We had a phrase "new releases are our life's blood."

It's been many years now, so I won't say my numbers are perfect, but as 'get the gist' measure, they'll work.

A new model comes out. 65% of all the kits it will ever sell do so in the first week. Another 20% go in the next few months. The remaining 15% is the rest of time.

It's not based on power or the like, just freshness. Generally speaking, people are hyped for New Stuff, almost no matter what it is.

We really struggled to get retailers to understand that. "Oh, I'll stock one pack, and if it sells, I special order more." Too late, doofus. But I digress.

Incidentally, I think this is why warscrolls and other card stock or special items seem to have limited release, and why the popular Kill Team starter is not coming back - the demand (often overstated, btw) usually fails to justify the second release run.

All of this sounds very understandable. I wouldn't be surprised if that low 15% "aftersales" number is because the second hand market gets flooded with cheap half assembled or NoS models from projects that were just an impulse buy in the first week and the original buyers realize it just added to their pile of shame...

My views on the main topic:

AoS is a game in full development. Extra rules layers are still being added and invented. Endless spells and terrain are just the latest arrivals in this. Subfaction rules (stormhosts, clans, grand courts etc) are also a reasonably new layer. Spell lores are an old layer (FEC V1 still didn't have that for instance). So yeah, because of these changes to game depth, newer releases will feel quite a bit stronger compared to old ones who don't have them.  This game almost needs a flurry of V2 books + expansions at this stage, and I believe that's going to be exactly what we are in for (or V1 for major factions that don't have a book yet, like ogors). 

However, If somebody says: the latest models have the strongest rules, they are full of sh*t. Some of the more recent books also turned out to be duds in terms of gaming power (Nighthaunt being the most obvious example), so I don't think there is a clear 100% powercreep indicator. But a V2 book is always going to be more powerful than a V1 book (or no book)... I don't think they necessarily invalidate "older books" that did really well in the past though.  

[Mikester1487]

The biggest example I've seen for power creep to sell models has to be evocators. Newer players and veterans looking to get the most out of their purchases would never consider paladins over evocators. 

Newer books in general are much stronger as previously mentioned where tools are given that were not provided before. Sometimes it is a power creep or just feels like it. I'm not overly concerned when a strong combo comes out because that means other armies get to use tools usually considered not as good. 

[King Taloren]

25 minutes ago, Mikester1487 said:

The biggest example I've seen for power creep to sell models has to be evocators. Newer players and veterans looking to get the most out of their purchases would never consider paladins over evocators. 

I got one stronger. Sequitors. Sure they aren’t just plain battleline, but it’s not really that limiting and they outclass Liberators and Judicators with the reroll saves or hits. Or both if you take the one hero with the command trait. And with the number of Staves you can pile in they out damage Evocators.

[Mikester1487]

Yeah most of the sacrosanct chamber outclasses what existed before pretty handily. Just the way it goes with books that also sell models. 

It may be something no one wants and I understand this, but stormcast could use a new tome or at least a good faq update. Preferably without a new model line so we can mix and match units, but that's in a perfect world. 

[Requizen]

2 minutes ago, Mikester1487 said:

Yeah most of the sacrosanct chamber outclasses what existed before pretty handily. Just the way it goes with books that also sell models. 

It may be something no one wants and I understand this, but stormcast could use a new tome or at least a good faq update. Preferably without a new model line so we can mix and match units, but that's in a perfect world. 

Nah, the points pass in the next GHB should be good enough. Evos up, Paladins potentially down (at least Retributors shouldn't be 220). Sequitors up. 

Oh, and Fulminators/Concussors as Battleline with a Stardrake General, but that's neither here nor there  

[The World Tree]

3 hours ago, Mikester1487 said:

Yeah most of the sacrosanct chamber outclasses what existed before pretty handily. Just the way it goes with books that also sell models. 

It may be something no one wants and I understand this, but stormcast could use a new tome or at least a good faq update. Preferably without a new model line so we can mix and match units, but that's in a perfect world. 

Honestly the whole Stormcast book was just lazy. They made very little effort with most of the units. Compare it to the effort that visibly went into Gitz or even Skaven and it is embarrassing.

[amysrevenge]

20 minutes ago, The World Tree said:

Honestly the whole Stormcast book was just lazy. They made very little effort with most of the units. Compare it to the effort that visibly went into Gitz or even Skaven and it is embarrassing.

I mean, if we're going there, while I very much like the idea of Stormhosts (or insert your army equivalent term here), I very much don't like the mechanic of locking in command traits and artefacts to get them.  I realize that something needs to give, you can't just give out extra abilities for free.  But this is a sort of handcuff I don't like.  I've got my SCE painted as Anvils, so I use them as Anvils.  I honestly don't even know what the other command traits are or do, because I've literally never used them or even looked them up.

[Skabnoze]

20 hours ago, amysrevenge said:

That's a nice bit of insight.  Stuff that looks like it should, and plays like it should, is more popular than stuff where the aesthetic and the playstyle don't match expectations. 

This is my personal preference.

I like when armies can be built in multiple different ways and when people can really go outside the box and do weird things if they so choose.  But my first desire for any army is for it to play effectively with the general theme that the army is presented and designed with.  For Gloomspite that meant that I wanted playing a bunch of grots and shaman to actually work.  I also really love squigs of all types and so I wanted the book to help facilitate playing that and it also being fun.  It sucks when an army does not play effectively in the way that the main aesthetic GW pushes for that army.  I don't want to have to play my army sideways to have a good time.  I don't need the army to be amazing and win against everything.  I don't need games to be ultra easy.  But I would prefer for the army not to be awful and probably a loser before the game even starts.

This is one my biggest complaints about the last few editions of 40k and most especially 8th edition.  So many of the armies play sideways now - especially if the place you play at has a lot of tournament influence.  Chaos Space Marine armies generally don't use chaos space marines.  Death Guard often skips using many Plague Marines.  Imperial Armies are often a mess of cherry picked items from multiple books.  I am glad that AoS generally does not have this issue.

[Forrix]

I'm curious as to where people are getting sales information about specific armies? In my local meta Deepkin have been pretty well received and I remember them being on the best selling tab for quite a while. Totally anecdotal evidence but I'm surprised to hear they didn't sell well overall.

Going off of Best Sellers tab Gloomspite is doing quite well despite not being a powerhouse army (though they don't sound weak either, nobody plays them around here).

Stormcast prior to the Sacrosant never did well as far I as can tell from what I remember of the best sellers tab and my local meta but GW still went batshit insane with endlessly pumping them out. (this is a sore point for me if you can't tell lol).