Crowdsource Points Project: AoS Gunkulator

[Lemon Knuckles]

So, finally had a chance to rework the sheet to account for the tempo difference between melee and missle weapon profiles, and a few tweaks to the way range modifies pressure.  The results are, well, interesting and shows the water-balloon effect in all its majesty.  Seemed to fix the issues with range valuations noted quite nicely, but it did introduce some downstream effects. 

• Problematic units that gunk seemed to identify correctly remain problematic, but a bit less variance than before:
  • Girmghast Reapers, Morrsarr Guard, Witch Elves, Dire Wolves, Evocators, Sequitors, etc.
• Overcosted range units are now in-line with the exception of Kurnoth Hunters, and artillery was not broken in the process
  • Arkanughts, Endrinriggers, Judicators, Arrowboys, etc.
• Some previously balanced units are now unexpectedly over/under costed
  • VLoZD, Arkhan, Nagash, Skyfires, Lord of Change, etc.
• Some other big outliers are suddenly back inline
  • Dragonlord, etc.
• Some other unexplained outliers from before remain outliers

As always, if you can make sense of anything that seems off, and patterns therein, feedback appreciated.

Updated Output:

Spoiler

Reference    UnitName    Total    GH2018    Difference    Var%    Rating
1    Morghast Archai    187    220    -33    -15%    6. Overcosted
2    Grave Guard    87    80    7    9%    3. Slightly Undercosted
3    Grimghast Reapers    162    140    22    16%    2. Undercosted
4    Hexwraiths    160    160    0    0%    4. Spot On
5    Black Knights    118    120    -2    -2%    4. Spot On
6    Akhelian Morrsarr Guard    174    160    14    9%    3. Slightly Undercosted
7    Witch Elves    129    100    29    29%    1. Very Undercosted
8    Liberators    107    100    7    7%    3. Slightly Undercosted
9    Celestar Ballista    109    100    9    9%    3. Slightly Undercosted
10    Bloodletter    108    120    -12    -10%    5. Slightly Overcosted
16    Blood Knights    213    240    -27    -11%    6. Overcosted
17    Fulminators    217    240    -23    -9%    5. Slightly Overcosted
18    Dire Wolves    79    60    19    31%    1. Very Undercosted
19    Kurnoth Hunters    222    200    22    11%    2. Undercosted
20    Endrinriggers    120    120    0    0%    4. Spot On
21    Tzangor Enlightened    154    160    -6    -4%    4. Spot On
22    Savage Boar Boys    77    100    -23    -23%    6. Overcosted
23    Akhelian Allopexes    124    140    -16    -11%    6. Overcosted
24    Putrid Blightkings    174    160    14    9%    3. Slightly Undercosted
25    Vampire Lord on Zombie Dragon    397    440    -43    -10%    5. Slightly Overcosted
26    Irondrakes    118    180    -62    -34%    7. Very Overcosted
27    Stormvermin    122    140    -18    -13%    6. Overcosted
28    Bestigors    150    120    30    25%    1. Very Undercosted
29    Namarti Thralls    132    140    -8    -5%    5. Slightly Overcosted
30    Vargheists    167    160    7    4%    4. Spot On
31    Savage Orruk Arrowboys    127    140    -13    -9%    5. Slightly Overcosted
32    Sequitors    145    120    25    21%    2. Undercosted
33    Ironblaster    108    120    -12    -10%    6. Overcosted
34    Huskard on Thundertusk    264    360    -96    -27%    7. Very Overcosted
35    Arkanaut Company    120    120    0    0%    4. Spot On
36    Tzaangor Skyfires    175    220    -45    -20%    6. Overcosted
37    Judicators    143    160    -17    -11%    6. Overcosted
38    Grot Rock Lobber    105    100    5    5%    3. Slightly Undercosted
39    Orruk Ardboyz    161    160    1    1%    4. Spot On
40    Orruk Brutes    215    180    35    19%    2. Undercosted
41    Spirit Hosts    127    120    7    6%    3. Slightly Undercosted
42    Dragon Ogres    172    140    32    23%    2. Undercosted
43    Chaos Mauraders    113    120    -7    -6%    5. Slightly Overcosted
44    Crypt Ghouls    97    100    -3    -3%    4. Spot On
45    Sisters of the Thorn    152    220    -68    -31%    7. Very Overcosted
46    Evocators    240    200    40    20%    2. Undercosted
47    Kroxigor    149    160    -11    -7%    5. Slightly Overcosted
48    Ripperdactyl Riders    161    140    21    15%    2. Undercosted
49    Fungoid Cave-Shaman    110    80    30    38%    1. Very Undercosted
50    Necromancer    87    110    -23    -21%    6. Overcosted
51    Beastlord    88    90    -2    -2%    4. Spot On
52    Battlemage    79    120    -41    -34%    7. Very Overcosted
53    Freeguild General    94    100    -6    -6%    5. Slightly Overcosted
54    Hammerers    167    160    7    4%    4. Spot On
55    Abhorrent Ghoul King    139    140    -1    -1%    4. Spot On
56    Wight King on Skeletal Steed    92    120    -28    -23%    6. Overcosted
57    Vampire Lord on Nightmare    138    140    -2    -1%    4. Spot On
58    Arch-Warlock    179    140    39    28%    1. Very Undercosted
59    Verminlord Corruptor    255    220    35    16%    2. Undercosted
60    Nagash    754    800    -46    -6%    5. Slightly Overcosted
61    Arkhan the Black    303    320    -17    -5%    5. Slightly Overcosted
62    Lord of Change    332    380    -48    -13%    6. Overcosted
63    Dragonlord    354    340    14    4%    4. Spot On
64    Arachnarok Spider w/ Grots and Shaman    256    280    -24    -9%    5. Slightly Overcosted
65    Sorceress on Black Dragon    256    280    -24    -9%    5. Slightly Overcosted
66    Chaos Sorcerer Lord on Manticore    185    200    -15    -8%    5. Slightly Overcosted
67    Keeper of Secrets    233    260    -27    -10%    6. Overcosted
68    Chaos Lord on Manticore    209    250    -41    -16%    6. Overcosted
69    Butcher    114    120    -6    -5%    4. Spot On
70    Bloodthirster of Insensate Rage    215    260    -45    -17%    6. Overcosted

 

[JPjr]

Has anyone done Pink/Blue/Brimstone Horrors yet? Just painted my Eyes of the Nine warband and enjoyed it so much might buy some more Tzeentch daemons.

Was looking at the war scrolls/points and thought they’d be a challenge to point up.

As it stands 10 Pink Horrors = 200 pts 

kill them all they turn into 20 Blue Horrors (which would cost 200 pts to buy on their own)

kill the Blue Horrors and you end 40 Brimstone Horrors (20 models, 140 pts)

[Lemon Knuckles]

10 hours ago, JPjr said:

Has anyone done Pink/Blue/Brimstone Horrors yet? Just painted my Eyes of the Nine warband and enjoyed it so much might buy some more Tzeentch daemons.

Was looking at the war scrolls/points and thought they’d be a challenge to point up.

As it stands 10 Pink Horrors = 200 pts 

kill them all they turn into 20 Blue Horrors (which would cost 200 pts to buy on their own)

kill the Blue Horrors and you end 40 Brimstone Horrors (20 models, 140 pts)

This is a fascinating case, and a puzzle to try and figure out.

On their own, gunk currently values them as follows (as a unit of 10):

71    Pink Horrors of Tzeentch    140    200    -60    -30%    7. Very Overcosted
72    Blue Horrors of Tzeentch    71    100    -29    -29%    7. Very Overcosted
73    Brimstone Horrors of Tzeentch    61    70    -9    -13%    6. Overcosted

Obviously they are not worth their points on their own, but trying to figure out the value of their splitting ability is a tough nut.  Doing so well, I think, involves calculating the resultant units in the context of tempo.  The splitting is a very anti-tempo play and an amazing control ability, and I'd argue that the relative value of the Presence of the resultant Blue and Brimstone horrors is higher than it would be if those same effective wounds were present up-front in the Pinks.  Likewise, I'd argue that the value of the Pressure of the resultant units is lower than it would be if that effective output was present in the Pinks.   It's a very interesting thing to think about.

It's also kind of interesting that the proportional value of the Blue and Brimstone's Presence decreases as their number increases due to the potential increasing effects of Battleshock.  This is the case for any horde unit, and one of the reasons that the max size discount is not actually a discount per se, but more an accurate reflection of relative decrease in the value of a horde unit's effective wounds.  At some point I need to better tackle the math around this.

[Dead Scribe]

Interesting!  Normally when I see people discussing fan-point systems its full of negative posts and slamming the author.  This one is positive.  Cool.  I'll follow this to see if any of the points revelations make their way into "official channels".

[scrubyandwells]

Hi @Lemon Knuckles, I was curious how your latest version would score the following (current value in parentheses):

- Akhelian Leviadon (380)
- Aventis Firestrike (360)
- Lord-Arcanum on Tauralon (340)
- Evocators on Dracolines (300)
- Spirit of Durthu (380)
- Treelord Ancient (300)
- Drycha Hamadreth (280)

[Kyriakin]

I would be curious about the Frostlord on Stonehorn

[Skreech Verminking]

I really am curious, how many points our beloved meatshields “the clanrats” would be worth.

thanks in advance 

[Poryague]

@Lemon Knuckles with the warscroll changes to daemonettes and fiends how do they stack in your formula? Dameonettes are 100/270 10/30

Fiends 180 for 3 and at 6 thier -1 to wound kicks in.

How is your project going?

What can the community do to help?

[Barbossal]

Very very interesting. I have struggled over the past year in figuring out the best uses for one key Seraphon unit. But maybe we can gunkify him: is Lord Kroak (450) overcosted post-faq? Note that he still does have four casts and can charge summoning points.