Overview of the tournament scene

[MayItBe]

Does it includes recent Warhammer World Europe?

[Future]

This is great! Coming from other competitive table top games I 100% agree this is much needed. I think this type of break down is what war gaming needs to push it into a more competitive spot where we see most card games. I'll definitely be giving the podcast a listen.

[LLV]

 

1 hour ago, Future said:

This is great! Coming from other competitive table top games I 100% agree this is much needed. I think this type of break down is what war gaming needs to push it into a more competitive spot where we see most card games. I'll definitely be giving the podcast a listen.

My 2 favourite competitive focussed podcasts right now are The Honest Wargamer and Just Saying. Coming from competitive MtG myself I can truely say both these shows know what they’re talking about.

[SuperHappyTime]

4 hours ago, LLV said:

As I said save the thanks for the ones letting me access the info  - im just the one typing it all up ahaha. I am recently coming back to Warhammer after a hiatus and getting involved in competitive MtG, so I saw the other side and got used to having data like this at my fingertips.  I figured with the refresh that was AoS2 why not get something together for Warhammer. The Honest Wargamer crew have a similar mentality to me in that respect so it was great when they facilitated bring this to the community. This is only the start but I think with continued help and support of TO's and the community there's no reason we as AoS players cant have similar data and information to what MtG has.

As someone who has delved in his share of MtG data (and who did a lot of what MTG Goldfish does before that site was up and running), this is a really good analysis. It's the kind of analysis that GW should be doing and should have hired two-three people for.

That said, tournament data isn't even at it's final form. Two things I hope you look into next:

1. List Analysis: It's hard to differentiate between good players and casuals, but comparing what winning lists take vs what losing lists take offer the opportunity to show where some units need points increases (Nagash) and others need incentives to play.

2. List Matchups: Showing that scissors beats paper 100% of the time, or maybe there are some lists that just can't win against others (ex. Maybe Legions is a good list, but the bane of it's existence is Daughters, who do really well against it, but don't do so well against the rest of the field).

Also, InB4 some part of the community want you banned for showing the netlists.

[LLV]

4 hours ago, MayItBe said:

Does it includes recent Warhammer World Europe?

No it doesn’t. If someone get me the results I can add it- same with any other big events elsewhere in the world.

48 minutes ago, SuperHappyTime said:

As someone who has delved in his share of MtG data (and who did a lot of what MTG Goldfish does before that site was up and running), this is a really good analysis. It's the kind of analysis that GW should be doing and should have hired two-three people for.

That said, tournament data isn't even at it's final form. Two things I hope you look into next:

1. List Analysis: It's hard to differentiate between good players and casuals, but comparing what winning lists take vs what losing lists take offer the opportunity to show where some units need points increases (Nagash) and others need incentives to play.

2. List Matchups: Showing that scissors beats paper 100% of the time, or maybe there are some lists that just can't win against others (ex. Maybe Legions is a good list, but the bane of it's existence is Daughters, who do really well against it, but don't do so well against the rest of the field).

Also, InB4 some part of the community want you banned for showing the netlists.

Totally agree on all accounts. As I said this is hopefully just a start and just a tip of the iceberg. List analysis tic is something I’m going to look at this week, time permitting. Will likely start with just the top factions piecemeal.

[MayItBe]

1 hour ago, LLV said:

No it doesn’t. If someone get me the results I can add it- same with any other big events elsewhere in the world.

I can provide you with only TOP4 results:

1. DOK 4:0
2. Idoneth 2:2
3. Khorne 3:1
4. Sylvaneth 4:0 [me :P]

[flufee02]

hi not sure where to post it but i cant find a decent LoN group anywhere but here

i just got into AoS and got a Malign portents box, nighthaunt from soulwars, 20 Direwolves, the Grand alliance death battleforce, Nagash, and a box of skellies

currently im thinking of my 2k list to be

Nagash, 30 skellies, 3x5 Direwolves,2 Morghasts, Arkhan,20 Chainwrasps and an umbral spell portal

hows this list for you guys?

also, i have a couple questions

What spells do you give nagash?

do i need more wizards for him to take spells or is this fine?

is arkhan worth it or are other mortarchs better?

if i can choose a realm spell which do i take?

most importantly, how do you keep Nagash alive? do u play him far away? does he ever go into combat?, what buffs do u give him to make him survivable

 

sorry for the bomb of questions, really excited to start but i cant find a place to ask :) no one in my FLGS has LoN yet so internets my answer :))

[PlasticCraic]

@flufee02 there is a TGA forum dedicated to Death mate, you might get more relevant answers over there:

https://www.tga.community/forums/forum/12-death/

 

[AaronWilson]

Can I just say a massive massive thank you to @LLV and all his contributors on this, this sort of data is the first type ever I've seen for AoS and I think it's fascinating. The on going growth of this date will be amazing for the game, looking at trends such as armies with a above the norm win %, the most represented armies and the flip side of all that. Thanks again to everyone who made this happen and will continue to do so! 

For me the graph didn't prove any massive surprises, Legions of Nagash, Idoneth, Daughters of Khaine all looking very strong. Armies like SCE, Sylvaneth etc having good showings is what I'd expect as well. Looking forward to seeing this data continue to grow. 

[Chris Tomlin]

Great work @LLV - I love this kind of thing. I'm also a MtG & Hearthstone player and really enjoy this kind of data.

Once we get more results this will be super valuable. In the meantime though, I am really proud to have been able to prove to you all that Phoenix Temple are undeniably the best army in AoS!  

[Ar-Pharazôn]

A takeaway from this data is that 2018's battletomes have all been fairly strong, while also being diverse. I'm curious to see what Beasts of Chaos will do to the meta, and I won't doubt that you'll see Beastmen taking top tables at least here and there. It'll also be interesting to see what future armies do. 

One issue I see is power creep, but seeing armies like Sylvaneth, and even Bonesplitterz to some extent not looking too bad gives me hope that older armies will remain fully playable. 

[Charles]

@LLV have you included he results from Throne of Skulls at Warhammer World? That was an AoS 2 tournament.

[SolomonHelsing]

1 hour ago, Charles said:

@LLV have you included he results from Throne of Skulls at Warhammer World? That was an AoS 2 tournament.

I think that'll not be possible as the results for that was recorded under the four grand alliances only even though I know for fact (I went with seraphon) the actual armies weren't all just grand alliance allegiances. Possibly why it's not on the bad dice rankings either. Would skew the results without getting the actual armies somehow 

[Charles]

18 minutes ago, SolomonHelsing said:

I think that'll not be possible as the results for that was recorded under the four grand alliances only even though I know for fact (I went with seraphon) the actual armies weren't all just grand alliance allegiances. Possibly why it's not on the bad dice rankings either. Would skew the results without getting the actual armies somehow 

I’m sure between a few of us who went could fill that out. I know I can identify myself and all my opponents as well as a few others. 

[flufee02]

@PlasticCraic thank you!, but any help to my post will help a bunch, got any advice haha?

[LLV]

For the data to mean anything I would need a full listing first place to last place for the event, so things like Throne of skulls and the Europe event I can’t include  unfortunately. It’s why despite having one of the larger player bases I couldn’t include the data from BOBO as I only had factions for some of the top 10.

@Chris Tomlin ahaha -not quite the proven best army yet- I’d love for you to champion that though! Although to be fair you are the only person to take a ‘rogue faction’ 4-1, which is quite an achievement. 

For what it’s worth I think the true measure of the ‘best’ army is; did it 5+ events multiple times, then look at win % to break the ties. Helps smooth out the results a little. So games won is power, mw% is consistency, if that makes sense.

[Chris Tomlin]

49 minutes ago, LLV said:

 

@Chris Tomlin ahaha -not quite the proven best army yet- I’d love for you to champion that though!

Look at your own graphs bro! Phoenix Temple - 80% win rate; the best out there!

(Of course I am joking, but it obviously highlights that we need more data. This is great starting point and I'm excited to see how this looks in a years' time etc)

[LLV]

Well I guess the pressure is on now Chris  - since you're obviously using the best army out there. Anything less than 80% win rate going forward is obviously down to poor generalship  lol.

I'm going to make new graphs taking army representation into account  - current graphs were initially just a snapshot - but yes as time and results grow it will be great to see if the Temple can remain at its current heady heights.

[Chris Tomlin]

10 hours ago, LLV said:

Well I guess the pressure is on now Chris  - since you're obviously using the best army out there. Anything less than 80% win rate going forward is obviously down to poor generalship  lol.

I'm going to make new graphs taking army representation into account  - current graphs were initially just a snapshot - but yes as time and results grow it will be great to see if the Temple can remain at its current heady heights.

Haha yeh....40% win rate at Facehammer GT incoming I'm sure!

[Smavo]

Seeing this data is really intriguing as I am a death player. What shocks me is that even though LoN has a high presence the win rate is on the lower side. 

 

In future I would really like to see a more broken down list taking into consideration of additional rules. As much as these events are similar comparison between an event with realm rules and spell and one without is doing the data a disservice as that can drastically influence data in one way or another. 

 

Still though amazing work please keep it up. As the more of this there is the better and more accurate it will become. 

[AaronWilson]

Data like this is excellent but also harder to truly break down because of how different events are currently running realms, realmscapes, realm spells etc differently. 

[LLV]

New data available:

There's an excellent show over at The Honest Wargamer that breaks all this down and further focused content on its way soon.

youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yG5GEF79uDw&feature=youtu.be&a= 

twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/317156506

Events covered are:

Midwest Meltdown 

BOBO 

Blackout

Wargamescon

Capital City Blood Bath

EGGS

Northern Invasion

NOVA Open

Facehammer

Rising Sun GT

Sydney GT

Thats 11 events with 685 participants and over 3500 individual games played(!)

Shoutouts to all the TO's and helpful people providing data from the events for me to keep this going - BIG THANKS!

If you're interested in going to AoS tournaments please think about supporting the above events, - by all accounts they were great events  - or any others coming up in your area. The more people at Tournaments the more the community grows and the more DATA we get!

If you're a TO with an upcoming event and would like to contribute - please feel free to shoot me a message  

Thanks again!

 

 

[AaronWilson]

Massive thank you to yourself @LLV for producing this sort of data, I'm a numbers man and I love the discussion this sort of thing brings about. 

[Xasz]

What are the horizontal dividers for?

[LLV]

4 hours ago, Xasz said:

What are the horizontal dividers for?

oh you noticed....  it could be some top secret way of splitting the factions giving further insight into which factions performed better than others  further than the win %'s......

 

or it could have just been that they split grand alliances and I sorted the data and didnt remove the lines.

I'll let the people decide.