Nick907 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I didn’t explain myself very well. Your math for probabilities is fine, the fallacy comes from assuming a ‘law of averages’ can determine an average value of the ability. You can calculate the chances of getting a specific outcome but you cannot assume that outcomes will match a statistical average. In other words, we cannot say that the ability is worth ‘3-4 wounds on average’. Outcomes will vary wildly and may never meet those expectations. Ultimately this is because you always have a 16.67% chance of rolling a one, regardless of previous outcomes. 6 hours ago, Isotop said: Gamblers Fallacy has nothing to do with the expected damage from the Bomblets. @Stormrage89 correctly showed the likelihood for different amounts of damage you can get from the Bomblets. Gamblers Fallacy does not take place here because you look at the expected damage before you roll any dice, but Gamblers Fallacy is something you observe during the dice rolling. Sure, you can "reset" the damage table in your mind every time you roll a 2+, but again, this does not change the probable damage you will inflict. 3 hours ago, Baron Wastelands said: “Mathhammer” as a criticism generally implies misuse of averages, etc., which is why I tried to offer a rough likely range. (Better than saying e.g “you’ll do 3.3 wounds” I find it pretty rude to devalue @Stormrage89´s helpful mathematical assistance by throwing around a rather unrelated (but smart sounding) word. 4 hours ago, Stormrage89 said: What I posted was the likelyhood of success If your looking to get to a spacific number of wounds out of this item. Example: what's the chance of getting 1 wound? (5/6 = 83.33%) what's the chance of getting 3 wounds (5/6 × 5/6 × 5/6 = 57.87%) Your basically taking 5/6^X=Y where "X"= the number of mortal wounds your wanting to do and "Y" is your chance to get that many wounds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Panther Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 (edited) Update on my Endrinmaster conversion. Only wish I had some propellers to mount on the balloon. Edited January 12, 2020 by Lord Panther 9 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kramer Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, Lord Panther said: Update on my Endrinmaster conversion. Only wish I had some propellers to mount on the balloon. Looking very good. Regarding propellers is cutting them from plasticard an option? Maybe with a big ring like the model seems to have? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Panther Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Kramer said: Looking very good. Regarding propellers is cutting them from plasticard an option? Maybe with a big ring like the model seems to have? Thanks Kramer, I don’t think I’m confident enough to do a good job with with plasticard. Pretty happy with how he looks at the moment. Edited January 12, 2020 by Lord Panther 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5kaven5lave Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 31 minutes ago, Lord Panther said: Thanks Kramer, I don’t think I’m confident enough to do a good job with with plasticard. Pretty happy with how he looks at the moment. So you should be mate, fantastic stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kramer Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 32 minutes ago, Lord Panther said: Thanks Kramer, I don’t think I’m confident enough to do a good job with with plasticard. Pretty happy with how he looks at the moment. Hey if the high admiral doesn’t need a means of propulsion... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rachmani Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Got my Aetherwar Box yesterday, just like my battle tome. German version of the book has a big translation blunder in it. The named skyports charts miss the specifications when only a certain character as general gets a certain ability. RAW in german, I could take Barak Urbaz Baloonmaster and was „forced“ to give him the upgraded chemists ability. Which is... much better on a guy that is as mobile as him while never being tucked away in a boat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Causalis Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Rachmani said: Got my Aetherwar Box yesterday, just like my battle tome. German version of the book has a big translation blunder in it. The named skyports charts miss the specifications when only a certain character as general gets a certain ability. RAW in german, I could take Barak Urbaz Baloonmaster and was „forced“ to give him the upgraded chemists ability. Which is... much better on a guy that is as mobile as him while never being tucked away in a boat. Yup. German translation quality, as always. Also in the german version the Anatomizer relic for the Khemist does MW to ALL models within 6", not just enemy models. So RAW it hurts our guys as well. More observations: 1. The "Scholar and Arkanaut" WT for the Admiral let's us choose an additional footnote. It doesn't specify that we have to use the general footnotes from the "build your own port"-section. So could we take f.ex. a Barak Urbaz Admiral, give him the WT and take the footnote of f.ex. Barak Mhornar? That would be pretty rad! 2. The "Emergency vents" artefact for the Khemist doesn't specify how long the ability lasts. RAW we only activate it in the enemy shooting phase but it doesn't say that it only lasts for that phase. Potentially this could give Thunderers a -3 to being hit buff in close combat, if they are close to the Khemist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grudgebearer Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Has anybody had a Chance to get some games in this Weekend :)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarrinTheOccult Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 (edited) I think I'll go for this list: Barak-ZonLeadersEndrinmaster with dirigible suit (220) (General) Command Trait: Bearer of the Ironstar (revive at 2+) Artifact: Aethersped Hammer (+2 attacks to a melee weapon)Aether-Khemist (90) Artifact: Spell in a bottleBattleline10 x Arkanaut Company (90)9 x Skywardens (300) skypikes9 x Skywardens (300) skypikesUnits10 x Grundstok Thunderers (240) special weaponsWar MachinesArkanaut Frigate (250) heavy sky cannon Endrinwork: Prudency chutesGrundstok Gunhauler (150) sky cannon Endrinwork: Zonbarcorp Debtsettler Spar TorpedoGrundstok Gunhauler (150) sky cannonBattalionsGrundstok Escort Wing (140) Endless SpellsGeminids of Uhl-Gysh (60)Total: 1990 / 2000Extra Command Points: 1Wounds: 89 EDIT: Forgot the endrinworks hehe Edited January 12, 2020 by DarrinTheOccult 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarrinTheOccult Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 28 minutes ago, Causalis said: Yup. German translation quality, as always. Also in the german version the Anatomizer relic for the Khemist does MW to ALL models within 6", not just enemy models. So RAW it hurts our guys as well. More observations: 1. The "Scholar and Arkanaut" WT for the Admiral let's us choose an additional footnote. It doesn't specify that we have to use the general footnotes from the "build your own port"-section. So could we take f.ex. a Barak Urbaz Admiral, give him the WT and take the footnote of f.ex. Barak Mhornar? That would be pretty rad! 2. The "Emergency vents" artefact for the Khemist doesn't specify how long the ability lasts. RAW we only activate it in the enemy shooting phase but it doesn't say that it only lasts for that phase. Potentially this could give Thunderers a -3 to being hit buff in close combat, if they are close to the Khemist. Yeah, with the spanish translation we have similar problems. As example, according to spanish battletome, Ironclad can reroll wound rolls instead of run rolls 🤣 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gecktron Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Causalis said: Yup. German translation quality, as always. Also in the german version the Anatomizer relic for the Khemist does MW to ALL models within 6", not just enemy models. So RAW it hurts our guys as well. More observations: 1. The "Scholar and Arkanaut" WT for the Admiral let's us choose an additional footnote. It doesn't specify that we have to use the general footnotes from the "build your own port"-section. So could we take f.ex. a Barak Urbaz Admiral, give him the WT and take the footnote of f.ex. Barak Mhornar? That would be pretty rad! 2. The "Emergency vents" artefact for the Khemist doesn't specify how long the ability lasts. RAW we only activate it in the enemy shooting phase but it doesn't say that it only lasts for that phase. Potentially this could give Thunderers a -3 to being hit buff in close combat, if they are close to the Khemist. 1. That should work, but some Skyport footnotes target their respective skyport keyword. So the Barak-Mhonar footnote would be useless in a Barak-Zilfin army. 2. Wait for the FAQ but I think its supposed to be only for that phase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sal4m4nd3r Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 11:05 AM, 5kaven5lave said: Anyone got any ideas about decking as a base for foot minis? Green stuff or real wood? Popsickle sticks cut with clippers into thin strips. Or better yet go to local Starbucks and grab some extra wooden coffee stir sticks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDD Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 3 hours ago, Rachmani said: German version of the book has a big translation blunder in it. 1 hour ago, DarrinTheOccult said: Yeah, with the spanish translation we have similar problems. As example, according to spanish battletome, Ironclad can reroll wound rolls instead of run rolls 🤣 Huh, that's really interesting. A while back when the competitive AoS community compared win rates and meta they found out that KO was preforming much better in Japan compared to the rest of the world. My first thought upon hearing this was that there's was probably a translation error in the Japanese tome/FAQ that no one was noticing because the English proficiency rate over there is pretty low. This sort of lends credence to that thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rachmani Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, GDD said: Huh, that's really interesting. A while back when the competitive AoS community compared win rates and meta they found out that KO was preforming much better in Japan compared to the rest of the world. My first thought upon hearing this was that there's was probably a translation error in the Japanese tome/FAQ that no one was noticing because the English proficiency rate over there is pretty low. This sort of lends credence to that thought. Absolutely. Buffed Khemist ability on a Balloonboy would be extremely good. Probably good enough to influence winrates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ekrund Oath Splitters Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I created my own Endrinmaster kind of like @Lord Panther !!! 😁 from 5 different kits! 6 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDD Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ekrund Oath Splitters said: I created my own Endrinmaster kind of like @Lord Panther !!! 😁 from 5 different kits! Goddammit, stop it you ******! You are actually making me regret ordering the aether war box. I like both of yours better than the official guy.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ekrund Oath Splitters Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 3 hours ago, Grudgebearer said: Has anybody had a Chance to get some games in this Weekend :)? I got 3 games In yesterday, only 1250pts but it was against beastclaw raiders, nighthaunt and bonesplitterz. I ran the following: Endrinmaster with great tinker and aetherquartz monolense Grundstok escort wing Arkanaut frigate with sky cannon and breath of morgrim 10 grundstok thunderers with 2 cannons, 2 decksweppers and 1 mortar (spoilers the mortar is pretty bad but I took it just incase they were grounded to get the +1 to hit out of the boat) 2 grundstok gunhaulers with sky cannons one with the turbo charger engine 6 Endrinrigger with no special weapons As Barak urbaz I got to say they increase in mobility was huge, being able to dictate where you engage the enemy was amazing and I could go to anywhere I wanted to grab objectives, snip characters or just simply avoid combat. The frigate couldnt fly high but 2 games I kicked the endrinmaster out and used it them games. I won against beastclaw boulderhead and nighthaunt and drew against the bonesplitters (I had to go so called the game short) The thunderers were my MVPs and i didnt really need the mortar as it never did any damage and I didnt need to disembark. The haulers were quick and did what they needed to do (although the beastclaw player past a ridiculous amount of 5+++ on his frost lord on stonehorn, he tanked 2 turns of cannon fire but in the end the endrinriggers chopped him up. It's totally different from what I used to run prior to this new book which was urbaz khemist with skyhook company with gyro copter support. Overall I was pleased with their improvement and it's made me get my hobby mojo back as i was getting tired out with the hobby really. Yet to play against bonereapers but next saturday I'll be against skaven and then seraphon so I'll see how they do! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ekrund Oath Splitters Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, GDD said: Goddammit, stop it you ******! You are actually making me regret ordering the aether war box. I like both of yours better than the official guy.... What I found off putting with the original model is he is a bit cluttered? I love his balloon, but the servo arms not so much, and he hasnt got as nice of a head as the OG endrinmaster. Also I dont like his aethersaw too, it doesnt look like the nice endrinrigger ones and his aethercannon (the same the thunderers use) is midget!!! So I used the flare pistol from the company and then used a thunderer carbine muzzle on the end to give it the size that it should be. I kept the hammer as what's a dwarf without a hammer or axe! And then used the admirals volley pistol as his suits offensive weapon along with a volcaniser. I'm going for a heavy grundstok theme and have even started converting a new frigate to be crewed by thunderers and have even done 2 platforms for them to repel down with rope! Its 80% done! Plus the base! With 4 slots for the thunderers to be mounted on, and deployed skymines! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDD Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Ekrund Oath Splitters said: I love his balloon, but the servo arms not so much, and he hasnt got as nice of a head as the OG endrinmaster. I completely agree. I mean it's a nice head, but the OG Endrinmaster looks much more grand. I also don't like his dangling legs. It sort of looks like he's kicking or trying to find something to stand on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ekrund Oath Splitters Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, GDD said: I completely agree. I mean it's a nice head, but the OG Endrinmaster looks much more grand. I also don't like his dangling legs. It sort of looks like he's kicking or trying to find something to stand on. Yeah his legs are a bit weird! I have him on my desk now and I'm a bit stumped on how to make him look better. I might just use the endrin, head and tools on something else like a custom brokk model as I was never fond of brokk's too if I'm honest! I'm trying to go more militaristic with my force so heavy on the grundstok side of things. I've ordered some thunderer heads to put on the crew of my gunhaulers to actually tie them in with the frigate and thunderers themselves. Arkanaut Company are alright with the 4+ and "better" glory hunters, but with the reduced range (I'm not really bothered by the weapon load out change) I can't see myself using them anymore. They dont synergies as well as thunderers in a frigate or ironclad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Causalis Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just wanted to share what I've painted so far. Skyport Barak Jötunn: 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phasteon Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just played a 2000p „fun tournament“ today. My list: Barak-Urbaz Admiral - General, War wound - Proclamator Mask-hailer Endrinmaster Khemist Navigator - Flarepistol 20 Arkanauts 10 Thunderers 6 Endrinriggers (w 2 Volleys, 1 Grapnel, 1 Skyhook) 2 Gunhaulers (1 with Morgrims) Ironclad - Last Word Grundstok Escort Game 1: Nagash with some ghosts and morghasts. Major Victory, he got +10“ move on Nagash and tried to assassinate my Ironclad but failed and died. Was a deployment mistake by me but a nice bait. Instantly killed him with close combat and some shooting and his list fell apart. Game 2: Archaon with 4x 3 Varanguard Completely outkited his army, taking his units one at a time, Major Victory Game 3: StD with Barbarian summoning (Ravagers?), played very similar to Game 2 but with more commitment because his list didnt hit as hard as Varanguard Major Victory Conclusion: KOs mobility is key Shooting is sufficient Survivability is nice Artifacts were ok but not that decisive, though the Admiral was very nice (had 6 CP at one point in the game so I could go ham on rerolls of 1) The army is so much fun to play now, also very tactical. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dejnar Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Phasteon said: Just played a 2000p „fun tournament“ today. My list: Barak-Urbaz Admiral - General, War wound - Proclamator Mask-hailer Endrinmaster Khemist Navigator - Flarepistol 20 Arkanauts 10 Thunderers 6 Endrinriggers (w 2 Volleys, 1 Grapnel, 1 Skyhook) 2 Gunhaulers (1 with Morgrims) Ironclad - Last Word Grundstok Escort Game 1: Nagash with some ghosts and morghasts. Major Victory, he got +10“ move on Nagash and tried to assassinate my Ironclad but failed and died. Was a deployment mistake by me but a nice bait. Instantly killed him with close combat and some shooting and his list fell apart. Game 2: Archaon with 4x 3 Varanguard Completely outkited his army, taking his units one at a time, Major Victory Game 3: StD with Barbarian summoning (Ravagers?), played very similar to Game 2 but with more commitment because his list didnt hit as hard as Varanguard Major Victory Conclusion: KOs mobility is key Shooting is sufficient Survivability is nice Artifacts were ok but not that decisive, though the Admiral was very nice (had 6 CP at one point in the game so I could go ham on rerolls of 1) The army is so much fun to play now, also very tactical. Thanks for writing that up mate. What heroes did you have garrisoned? Edited January 12, 2020 by Dejnar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phasteon Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Dejnar said: Thanks for writing that up mate. What heroes did you have garrisoned? I had the Admiral, Endrinmaster and Navigator garrisoned with the Thunderers and the Khemist + 20 Arkanauts deployed on the ground to capture objectives (which worked surprisingly well) Nobody wanted to charge the Ironclad because the retaliation between all the close combat stuff (with +1 hit from the Admiral), bombs and Last Word was too frightening for even the Varanguards 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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