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Let's Chat Sylvaneth


scrubyandwells

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6 minutes ago, Popisdead said:

Thanks to both of you (my googling was utter failure it seems).

 

What makes it "coldplay" other than I assume it's a stand back and shoot and avoid combat?

Probably a joke about the list being common / repeated after Les Martin popularized it on FaceHammer.

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OK Ladies and Gentlemen, we finally have some more solid news on Sylvaneth. This comes from https://war-of-sigmar.herokuapp.com/bloggings/2333, this person clearly has the GHB in hand so I see no reason to doubt his info. From the comments section:

"dryad -20 and full stack discount
Discount on big stuff & troops
increase on ranged stuff"

and in another comment response he mentioned that Kurnoths were "+40"

This gives us at least something to go on. While I'm a little disappointed that Kurnoths are going +40 instead of +20 (FWIW Skyfires also appear to be +40), I think there is a real chance that the changes will be offset elsewhere for all but the most spammy Kurnoth lists. 

I'm a big fan of Dryads and pretty stoked at the discount there. I'd be shocked if revenants didn't also drop. Discounts to "big stuff" could mean anything, but a price reduction for the treelord would be very welcome. I'd be surprised to see Durthu, TLA, Drycha, or big A drop but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. 

Of course now we need to know about allies, too. I think we can pencil Wanderers and SCE in without question, but beyond that who knows. I'd certainly love to see the High Aelf factions included but that's just wishcasting. 

 

As an aside, to address the Kurnoth Hunters nerf: I think we need to consider how above par Kurnoths were. As part of my project in calculating the offensive and defensive efficiency of the entire roster of GA: Death, I calculated a bunch of non-death units as comparison points. Among them were Kurnoth Hunters. Just a few words about my methodology:

Spoiler

I calculated both defensive and offensive efficiency. For defensive efficiency I calculated the points-per-effective wound against rend 0, 1, 2 and mortal attacks. For units like Kurnoths I did calculations for special rules as well, such as separate sets of numbers for with the thicket ability used and without. A higher number in this case is worse.

For offense, I attempted to create a single statistic that will allow us to compare overall damage efficiency across different types of rend. Basically, I came up with a broad estimate of how often each armor save shows up and then calculated a comparative effectiveness of each rend/mortal type against each armor save. I used those two pieces of information to create a relative weight for each rend/mortal type that gives a sense of how good that damage is overall against a broad variety of opponents. Rend 1 has a weight of 1.33, rend 2 is 1.66, and mortals are 2.16. While these numbers are estimates, I strongly believe that they are close to correct. If anything there may be a slight bias against rend 2+, but I think it's only slight. Of course, against a known opponent the weights will be different because you know what armor saves you will be facing.

So overall on offense I calculated the expected wounds output for each damage type and then multiplied each one by the above-listed weights, summed them, and then divided by the points cost. This resulting number is what I called the "weighted damage rating" or WDR of the  unit. A higher number is better in this case

OK, with that out of the way, here are the numbers for Kurnoths. Please note that I only did calculations for melee.

WDR: .1033 for swords, .0978 for scythes

Defense (no thicket, against r0/r1/r2/mw): 6/8/10/12

Defense (with thicket): 3/5.33/8.33/12

 

For context, the WDR is very high. There's basically nothing in the entire Death GA that has a WDR this high (unless you count horde units that somehow manage to get ALL of their models into range). The Aleguzzler Gargant with its new point cost of 160 has a WDR of .0623. Brutes when fighting a high wound target are better at .1079, but are much worse against normal targets (.0775). There are a few units in the game that are higher than this, but they are much more unwieldy than Kurnoths (they tend to be large blocks of infantry that will basically never get everyone into range). 

Defensively without the thicket ability Kurnoths were decent. They are a little worse than mass cheap infantry but a little better than most tough elites. With the thicket ability, their defense against low rend attacks raises to top tier, particularly against rend 0. Even against R2 they are competitive. Brutes, by comparison, are 6/8/10/12 while something like Freeguild Guard with sword and board are 3.33/4.88/6.45/8.

So for those of you that think that Kurnoths were not exceptional with their old point cost, please consider these numbers. They had absolutely elite damage (among the most efficient in the game) while also having defense that ranged from being OK to elite (seriously, better than sword and board freeguild against r0 in melee is insane). With a respectable move value and utility along with the innate resistance to battleshock (that all monstrous infantry have), melee Kurnoths were a unit that was basically all upside.

A 40 point increase is roughly 20%. So now we are looking at a WDR in the .8 range, which is still very good (a bit lower than Retributors, for example) with a defensive efficiency that is still OK vs. ranged, OK-ish vs. high rend/mortal and exceptional against low rend melee. 

Keeping in mind that with shooting reportedly getting broad point increases, the thicket ability will now be useful a larger percentage of the time. 

As much as I loved Kurnoths, I think that a 40 point nerf is mathematically fair. It's stern, but the numbers still look good. 20 points would have left them a bit pushed, but within the realm of justifiable. 

 

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6 minutes ago, swarmofseals said:

OK Ladies and Gentlemen, we finally have some more solid news on Sylvaneth. This comes from https://war-of-sigmar.herokuapp.com/bloggings/2333, this person clearly has the GHB in hand so I see no reason to doubt his info. From the comments section:

"dryad -20 and full stack discount
Discount on big stuff & troops
increase on ranged stuff"

and in another comment response he mentioned that Kurnoths were "+40"

This gives us at least something to go on. While I'm a little disappointed that Kurnoths are going +40 instead of +20 (FWIW Skyfires also appear to be +40), I think there is a real chance that the changes will be offset elsewhere for all but the most spammy Kurnoth lists. 

I'm a big fan of Dryads and pretty stoked at the discount there. I'd be shocked if revenants didn't also drop. Discounts to "big stuff" could mean anything, but a price reduction for the treelord would be very welcome. I'd be surprised to see Durthu, TLA, Drycha, or big A drop but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. 

Of course now we need to know about allies, too. I think we can pencil Wanderers and SCE in without question, but beyond that who knows. I'd certainly love to see the High Aelf factions included but that's just wishcasting. 

 

As an aside, to address the Kurnoth Hunters nerf: I think we need to consider how above par Kurnoths were. As part of my project in calculating the offensive and defensive efficiency of the entire roster of GA: Death, I calculated a bunch of non-death units as comparison points. Among them were Kurnoth Hunters. Just a few words about my methodology:

  Reveal hidden contents

I calculated both defensive and offensive efficiency. For defensive efficiency I calculated the points-per-effective wound against rend 0, 1, 2 and mortal attacks. For units like Kurnoths I did calculations for special rules as well, such as separate sets of numbers for with the thicket ability used and without. A higher number in this case is worse.

For offense, I attempted to create a single statistic that will allow us to compare overall damage efficiency across different types of rend. Basically, I came up with a broad estimate of how often each armor save shows up and then calculated a comparative effectiveness of each rend/mortal type against each armor save. I used those two pieces of information to create a relative weight for each rend/mortal type that gives a sense of how good that damage is overall against a broad variety of opponents. Rend 1 has a weight of 1.33, rend 2 is 1.66, and mortals are 2.16. While these numbers are estimates, I strongly believe that they are close to correct. If anything there may be a slight bias against rend 2+, but I think it's only slight. Of course, against a known opponent the weights will be different because you know what armor saves you will be facing.

So overall on offense I calculated the expected wounds output for each damage type and then multiplied each one by the above-listed weights, summed them, and then divided by the points cost. This resulting number is what I called the "weighted damage rating" or WDR of the  unit. A higher number is better in this case

OK, with that out of the way, here are the numbers for Kurnoths. Please note that I only did calculations for melee.

WDR: .1033 for swords, .0978 for scythes

Defense (no thicket, against r0/r1/r2/mw): 6/8/10/12

Defense (with thicket): 3/5.33/8.33/12

 

For context, the WDR is very high. There's basically nothing in the entire Death GA that has a WDR this high (unless you count horde units that somehow manage to get ALL of their models into range). The Aleguzzler Gargant with its new point cost of 160 has a WDR of .0623. Brutes when fighting a high wound target are better at .1079, but are much worse against normal targets (.0775). There are a few units in the game that are higher than this, but they are much more unwieldy than Kurnoths (they tend to be large blocks of infantry that will basically never get everyone into range). 

Defensively without the thicket ability Kurnoths were decent. They are a little worse than mass cheap infantry but a little better than most tough elites. With the thicket ability, their defense against low rend attacks raises to top tier, particularly against rend 0. Even against R2 they are competitive. Brutes, by comparison, are 6/8/10/12 while something like Freeguild Guard with sword and board are 3.33/4.88/6.45/8.

So for those of you that think that Kurnoths were not exceptional with their old point cost, please consider these numbers. They had absolutely elite damage (among the most efficient in the game) while also having defense that ranged from being OK to elite (seriously, better than sword and board freeguild against r0 in melee is insane). With a respectable move value and utility along with the innate resistance to battleshock (that all monstrous infantry have), melee Kurnoths were a unit that was basically all upside.

A 40 point increase is roughly 20%. So now we are looking at a WDR in the .8 range, which is still very good (a bit lower than Retributors, for example) with a defensive efficiency that is still OK vs. ranged, OK-ish vs. high rend/mortal and exceptional against low rend melee. 

Keeping in mind that with shooting reportedly getting broad point increases, the thicket ability will now be useful a larger percentage of the time. 

As much as I loved Kurnoths, I think that a 40 point nerf is mathematically fair. It's stern, but the numbers still look good. 20 points would have left them a bit pushed, but within the realm of justifiable. 

 

Thanks very much for the update and analysis. So far this matches my expectations (below). Hopefully Bwych/Bwraith will drop 20 to further off-set Hunters and Gnarlroot. Based on @Chris Tomlin's excellent Ironjawz preview, it now sounds like Gnarlroot will be 120 or even 140 rather than the previously-expected 100. 

 

 

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Yeah, I was just going to post that battalion costs seem to be going up quite a bit almost across the board, so we can expect Gnarlroot to go up a lot.

I wonder what will happen with Forest Folk and Winterleaf. I've been wanting to do a Winterleaf list for a bit but have been put off by the cost relative to Gnarlroot.

 

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Sure but we have seen huge reduction in points of Big characters, with Dryads at 100, and Tree-Revs at 80 it's not that bad. 

Also from the start I was expecting Treelord, Alarielle and Drycha to drop in points and now I am almost sure all three will be cheaper I suspect 40,50-70,and 20-40 reductions. Also it matches Skirmish so far so Branchwych should be 80. 

Still playable but with points reductions 9 Kurnoth Hunter, Alarielle lists will be stronger I guess. 

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2 minutes ago, DantePQ said:

Sure but we have seen huge reduction in points of Big characters, with Dryads at 100, and Tree-Revs at 80 it's not that bad. 

Also from the start I was expecting Treelord, Alarielle and Drycha to drop in points and now I am almost sure all three will be cheaper I suspect 40,50-70,and 20-40 reductions. Also it matches Skirmish so far so Branchwych should be 80. 

Still playable but with points reductions 9 Kurnoth Hunter, Alarielle lists will be stronger I guess. 

You expected Drycha to drop? But she's strong at her current points. I hope and think Durthu gets a points decrease before her. If Alarielle drops I'd probably play her.. didn't pay a ton and spend hours painting for nothing :D. I think if you had a list with more than 6 hunters you might end up tight in your list.. more than 80 points seems hard to compensate for unless other stuff gets huge decreases.

I agree wych should be 80.. as should most mages in comparison to buffing characters like Khemist (who seems to be going to 140 so that is nice) and priests etc.

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It's not hard to compensate 

worst case scenario - Gnarlroot - 140, Hunters 220 

In standard list it's 240 points more (with 5 Hunters units)

With Battlines you got 60 back, and extra 20 with wych (going by Skirmish which is correct I guees) so you got to cut one unit but got some extra points to take different things (like more Dryads) 

Yeah I expect Alarielle to drop significantly like 60, Drycha 20, and Treelord 20-40, Durthu 40-50. 

I guess with those changes you will be encouraged to play Alarielle, Treelord and Durthu + Dryads if the got max unit decrease - 30 Dryads for let say 270 look like a nice thing to test out. 

With Big things points reduction I am stoked about changes as I was expecting KH to go up to 220 now lest's see how far reductions will got as I am sure it will open up some nice new possibilites (maybe Drycha will make Spites Battleline without her being a General which I doubt). 

 

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20 hours ago, Aezeal said:

Yeah I think most stuff getting battleline is only due to the general.

Bray herd is still Allegiance Brayherd.  So Raiders stay, and Bestigors become BL a la 6th ed BoC book (even with an odd caveat like they did 14 years ago).  

 

 

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New points

Dryads 100

Tree Revs and Spite Revs 80

Barnchwych and Branchwraith 80

Kurtnoth Hunters are 220

Allarielle 600

Treelord 240

all other units remain the same points cost

Ganrloot is 180

Household is 70

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2 minutes ago, Baz said:

New points

Dryads 100

Tree Revs and Spite Revs 80

Barnchwych and Branchwraith 80

Kurtnoth Hunters are 220

Allarielle 600

Treelord 240

all other units remain the same points cost

Ganrloot is 180

Household is 70

 

and how much is Dreadwood ? 

And how so can Spite Revenants become Battlelien ? 

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Here is a Dreadwood list. It's so so:

Dreadwood 200

Outcasts 90
Spite Revenants 80
Spite Revenants 80
Spite Revenants 80
Spite Revenants 80
Tree Revenants 80
Dryads 100
30 Dryads 270
 
1060
 
Alarielle 600
Bow Hunters 220
Branchwych 80
 
1960
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Winterleaf:

Winterleaf 200

Forest Folk 110
 
310
 
Dryads 100
Dryads 100
30 Dryads 270
20 Dryads 200
 
670
 
(980)
 
3 Scythe Hunters 220
TLA 300
Branchwraith 80
Durthu 400
 
1000
 
1980
 
It really is a one-two punch - hitting Kurnoths and Battalions. I think we expected Gnarlroot to go up, but this global change is big. Sinking 310 points on Battalions seems unwise. Is the era of the single drop army dead for Sylvaneth?
 
Skyfires >>>>>>>> Kurnoth Hunters - so that's disappointing.
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Yep checked it 

2000 total

looks very strong, now you got one huge Dryads unit to take objectives and second hero for scenarios like 3 places and extra magic - ability to set up wood just give Branchwych Verdant Blessing and Acorn you sacrifice 3 Hunters for that. Huge improvement in my books especially with how awesome Dreadwood could be 

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The choice of Allies is disappointing too, although this maintains the value of including such units in Gnarlroot and Winterleaf.

Ironbark with Fyreslayers or KO (Khemist plus Riggers/Arkanauts) look like options.

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