Top Tier Units Pre and Post GHB2017

[Andreas]

Yes interesting discussion. My gut feeling is that your ranged modifiers are a bit low. You can get more models to attack when you shoot and you can concentrate the damage. But I have no clue what the values should be.

Just curious have any of you thought about any modifiers if the attacks are less random. An extreme example 60 attacks that causes one damage each on 6+ is better than 1 attack that causes 60 damage on 6+ in most cases. A common example would be how much better is 3 attacks 3+ 3+ damage 1 compared to 1 attack 3+ 3+ damage 3. Or an attack with damage 2 compared to damage D3.

 

[daedalus81]

17 hours ago, Andreas said:

Yes interesting discussion. My gut feeling is that your ranged modifiers are a bit low. You can get more models to attack when you shoot and you can concentrate the damage. But I have no clue what the values should be.

Just curious have any of you thought about any modifiers if the attacks are less random. An extreme example 60 attacks that causes one damage each on 6+ is better than 1 attack that causes 60 damage on 6+ in most cases. A common example would be how much better is 3 attacks 3+ 3+ damage 1 compared to 1 attack 3+ 3+ damage 3. Or an attack with damage 2 compared to damage D3.

 

I have a tool that addresses this and produces a more realistic view of outcomes.  I just don't have all the data loaded and I need to host it.

Essentially it rolls dice across 100,000 iterations and graphs the outcome.

[Keldaur]

Not to speak that it's much easier to get to target priority targets easier shooting than on melee.

[Screamer]

And all models get to fire  (usually)  melee tends to miss out on a few models, especially in large units

[rokapoke]

On 9/17/2017 at 11:13 AM, daedalus81 said:

I have a tool that addresses this and produces a more realistic view of outcomes.  I just don't have all the data loaded and I need to host it.

Essentially it rolls dice across 100,000 iterations and graphs the outcome.

I'm curious if that really shows a difference. Ideally a dice roller is a uniform distribution variable, so each value is equally likely. I don't see how you'd find a difference in rolling 100,000 dice versus just calculating mathematical probabilities.

I'm seriously not trying to poo-poo your tool. I'm genuinely curious if there's a difference (as we're all, I imagine, well aware of the perceived differences between the chance to roll a 4+ and the actual result, for instance).

[daedalus81]

Just now, rokapoke said:

I'm curious if that really shows a difference. Ideally a dice roller is a uniform distribution variable, so each value is equally likely. I don't see how you'd find a difference in rolling 100,000 dice versus just calculating mathematical probabilities.

I'm seriously not trying to poo-poo your tool. I'm genuinely curious if there's a difference (as we're all, I imagine, well aware of the perceived differences between the chance to roll a 4+ and the actual result, for instance).

No worries.

When you calculate the math you're looking at the average.

What's the mathematical difference between 20 4+/4+ attacks that do 1 damage and one attack that does 20 damage?  Nothing

But you and I both know that there are real in-game consequences to each scenario that don't work out that way.

To put it visually:

[rokapoke]

1 hour ago, daedalus81 said:

To put it visually:

Good point; however, I wonder how many rolls have such misleading distributions. I wouldn't expect your typical result to have such an extremely long tail, for instance, to drag down the average. 

Either way, I think it would be really interesting to see the output you get!

[daedalus81]

16 minutes ago, rokapoke said:

Good point; however, I wonder how many rolls have such misleading distributions. I wouldn't expect your typical result to have such an extremely long tail, for instance, to drag down the average. 

Either way, I think it would be really interesting to see the output you get!

There are insights to be gleaned, but no absolute truths.  That particular tail represents something like 0.1% of all outcomes so the exceedingly rare stuff.  It's more noticeable when you see the whole chart.

Another piece that i've been working on is setting formations.  So, if you have a blob of 40 models on 32mm bases and you specify them to be running 8 wide it calculates their surface area.  The selected opponent will also have a surface area, say a Stardrake.  It then tries to determine how many will get into base and calculates the fight from there.

[Solaris]

So in this graph you have what, probability on the x axis and damage on the y axis?

[Sastopher]

BTW if people are interested in playing around with numbers on their own and don't want to create their own probability engine, I recommend a public tool I use called AnyDice. I use it quite a bit and it's extremely customizable with functions. Here's a link to one of my workspaces calculating buffs on stormfiends: http://anydice.com/program/d015